Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

timetogo1

Nody wrote: »

It's worse than that; under the existing EU FTA that is still in play for UK until 31st Dec. this year Soy has zero tariffs; what they are celebrating is that they managed to keep the price the same rather than go up.

And it's worse than that again.
If buying from Japan the tariff will remain at 0%.

If buying from Europe and there's no deal then the price goes up.

Here's the list of the exporters of Sauces to the UK (to get it broken down to Soy Sauce you need to register). Japan is the 3rd largest exporter to UK. Netherlands is about 7 times larger.

https://www.trademap.org/Country_SelProductCountry_TS.aspx?nvpm=1%7c826%7c%7c%7c%7c2103%7c%7c%7c4%7c1%7c1%7c1%7c2%7c1%7c2%7c1%7c1%7c1

Sam Russell

Do the UK actually consume an economically significant amount of Soya sauce?
Wow, who knew?

timetogo1

Sam Russell wrote: »

Do the UK actually consume an economically significant amount of Soya sauce?
Wow, who knew?

Not really. The numbers are small but the UK gov has to present every insignificant positive as a win. The Brexiters don't really do maths very well.

dogbert27

Fact check on the department of trades claim

https://fullfact.org/economy/japan-soy-sauce-bake-off/

Sam Russell

timetogo1 wrote: »

Not really. The numbers are small but the UK gov has to present every insignificant positive as a win. The Brexiters don't really do maths very well.

I suspected so.

I wonder, do UK consumers have a liking for Japanese Soya sauce greater that the Japanese liking for blue cheese, particularly Blue Stilton? I wonder if both nations are holding virtual (socially distanced) street parties in celebration about this tariff free breakthrough?

(Well, it is not a breakthrough, I know, but a supposed, virtual, breakthrough).

Patser

listermint wrote: »

Any other time, it would be absolutely devastating to a government. But id put money on it that the press conceal it. It is after all a Tory media majority in the UK. People on the street will simply never hear of it.

The press and news is simply being overwhelmed with stories now. Between Covid, Trump (and US elections), Brexit - there's simply and non stop stream of breaking news - so that scandal after scandal is being lost from focus and getting none of the normal attention.

Also the characters in question- Trump and Johnson - no one seems surprised or cares that they are doing what's alleged, everything is now tribal (like a football team, you support them for almost anything, every foul against is terrible ref, every foul missed is a blind ref - you can't blame your team)


In any normal time Johnson would not have got near PM status, instead now we have stories like Jennifer Arcuri admitting to an affair with him, going on trade missions as a reward and getting thousands in public funding at the same time. Any single aspect of that story would have sunk a career even 5 years ago. Now we've 3 scandals rolled into 1 and barely a whisper about it at the time, and now 2 weeks later (since last admission of affair) it's gone..

Edit: Just for contrast, here in Ireland we've recently had demotions and careers ended over historic drink driving convictions and dinners after a game of golf. Over there, billions is been given out on strange contracts and silence

Roanmore

That Soya (can't even get that right) sauce episode was a spectacular own goal, they had to back track immediately and say well it will be cheaper than if we were trading on WTO terms despite that fact that they had trumpeted WTO terms all along.

It also continues the politicisation of the Civil Service, it was the Dept. On International Trade who made the original announcement, they should not be getting involved in areas like this, basically pushing the Brexit agenda.

serfboard

listermint wrote: »

And possibly civil servants who would previously have kept a lid on it are now pissed with the last 4 years so they will have no problems leaking it out.

There was a code in the British system (and in ours since we inherited theirs) that Ministers and Civil Servants had each other's backs.

The Tories, and Cummings in particular, in ousting senior Civil Servants and politicising the service, have trashed that convention.

No surprise then, that the Civil Servants will try and get their revenge.

Strazdas

Roanmore wrote: »

That Soya (can't even get that right) sauce episode was a spectacular own goal, they had to back track immediately and say well it will be cheaper than if we were trading on WTO terms despite that fact that they had trumpeted WTO terms all along.

It also continues the politicisation of the Civil Service, it was the Dept. On International Trade who made the original announcement, they should not be getting involved in areas like this, basically pushing the Brexit agenda.

It looks like the likes of Liz Truss and Priti Patel are ordering the civil service social media accounts what to say and telling them to keep praising Brexit. A complete violation of normal standards : the civil service is not supposed to act as a cheerleader for a deeply controversial ideology.

Tell me how

Strazdas wrote: »

It looks like the likes of Liz Truss and Priti Patel are ordering the civil service social media accounts what to say and telling them to keep praising Brexit. A complete violation of normal standards : the civil service is not supposed to act as a cheerleader for a deeply controversial ideology.

We've seen the Trump administration completely ignore the Hatch act during this Presidential Election campaign.
Their behaviour, and that of Truss and Patel is as a consequence of the election to leadership positions of the likes of Trump and Johnson. I've said (as many others have) that one of the consequence of such people gaining power is how it would impact on acceptable standards within government and this is just another example of that.
To see Farage speaking in the US in support of Trump when you think of the mess in the UK because of the narrative which he espoused really does make you wonder how did we get to this point. I joked 4.5 years ago 'Imagine, in a short time, Trump could be head of the US and Johnson head of the UK' and everyone I said it to both laughed, and shivered. And here we are, in the middle of a fcuking pandemic which has killed nearly 300K people in both countries in little over 6 months!!

To paraphrase that heinous individual, 'We're not laughing now'

Strazdas

SNIP. No insults please.

reslfj

forgottenhills wrote: »

View wrote: »

forgottenhills wrote: »

It was indeed an irony that as one of the victors of WWII the UK came out of it badly financially while Germany and Japan received a great deal of economic assistance.

The U.K. was actually the largest recipient of money from the Marshall plan in Europe. It received more money than Germany, Italy and Austria received as a cumulative total.

Thank you I wasn't aware of that fact.

Why didn't you check it, before writing your original comments ?

It would have required nothing but a Google search and checking one or a few links found. A few more searches, I'm sure, could have given the exact dollar amounts received by each country.

https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/marshall-plan-1

In all, Great Britain received roughly one-quarter of the total aid provided under the Marshall Plan, while France was given less than one fifth of the funds.

Lars

trellheim

a week in the tunnel lads any news

cml387

If Peter Foster or Tony Connolly aren't hearing anything then it's locked up pretty tight.

ath262

European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, quoted in Connexionfrance.com 30th Oct.

extracts : "Good progress' in 'intensified' Brexit talks says EU..
...As the negotiations moved to Brussels after seven days in London, the European commission president said: “We’re making good progress but [there are] two critical issues: level playing field and the fisheries, [where] we would like to see more progress.

“We are in very close contact on an hourly basis because the negotiations now have been intensified … There are 11 other fields of files that have to be negotiated.” her comments come after Downing Street said last week that the talks were over..."

rugbyman

trellheim wrote: »

a week in the tunnel lads any news

Sterling rising

rugbyman

rugbyman wrote: »

Sterling rising

Talks held privately, no information to make calls on.

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Talks held privately, no information to make calls on.

There's no private talks in Tory land.

There's money talks. And money walks

Sam Russell

rugbyman wrote: »

Sterling rising

Deleted User wrote: »

Talks held privately, no information to make calls on.

Silence is golden.

No leaks = progress = deal, not yet, but more work to be done.

trellheim

Deleted User wrote: »

Talks held privately, no information to make calls on.

chuckle the one of the main points of brexit is for some people to make a lot of money of course they have folks on the inside

Enzokk

ath262 wrote: »

European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, quoted in Connexionfrance.com 30th Oct.

extracts : "Good progress' in 'intensified' Brexit talks says EU..
...As the negotiations moved to Brussels after seven days in London, the European commission president said: “We’re making good progress but [there are] two critical issues: level playing field and the fisheries, [where] we would like to see more progress.

“We are in very close contact on an hourly basis because the negotiations now have been intensified … There are 11 other fields of files that have to be negotiated.” her comments come after Downing Street said last week that the talks were over..."

This Tory Government is a joke. Do they believe anyone listens to them anymore? They stopped talking with the EU while everyone knows the talks are continuing and the EU is telling everyone talks are continuing. Absolute jokes.

rugbyman

I have enjoyed this thread for a long while, until recently not much anti Uk stuff.

My prediction is zero chance of no deal. (by the way re the aftermath of No Deal, might I have read somewhere that traffic flow at Dover would be to let it run freely for three months, perhaps with a tripling of random checks from current levels)

Existing tarifs to be maintained

Uk to pay large amounts annually for this,but somehow more than Switz and Norway pay, because of UK `s getting out of freedom of movement

Some fudge over not having ECJ, but clearly some overarching body is needed

level playing field ,will be agreed on

Fishing ,Eu will concede a bit, though important for Macron to insulate the Channel fishing ports from this

Sterling to rise to 1.4 /1.6euro

Uk's manufacturing standards will mirror EU's

Regards

The Raging Bile Duct

How is sterling possibly going to get up to €1.40 levels again?

Sam Russell

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

How is sterling possibly going to get up to €1.40 levels again?

It has not been that level (€1.40 = GB£1) since before the Brexit level was announced (Nov 2015). So, therefore, there needs to be a BRINO deal announced, that is fully implemented, or no Brexit at all but it is too late for that.

I would think it will be €1= 80p for a deal and parity for no deal, and then move from there.

rugbyman

Sorry folks mis type.should have typed 1.14/1.15.its around 1.11 as we speak

forgottenhills

listermint wrote: »

There's no private talks in Tory land.

There's money talks. And money walks

Its money talks and bull**** walks. There is a lot of money at stake and the EU is still talking to the UK with a deal now likely, despite the naysayers here.

forgottenhills

rugbyman wrote: »

I have enjoyed this thread for a long while, until recently not much anti Uk stuff.

My prediction is zero chance of no deal. (by the way re the aftermath of No Deal, might I have read somewhere that traffic flow at Dover would be to let it run freely for three months, perhaps with a tripling of random checks from current levels)

Existing tarifs to be maintained

Uk to pay large amounts annually for this,but somehow more than Switz and Norway pay, because of UK `s getting out of freedom of movement

Some fudge over not having ECJ, but clearly some overarching body is needed

level playing field ,will be agreed on

Fishing ,Eu will concede a bit, though important for Macron to insulate the Channel fishing ports from this

Sterling to rise to 1.4 /1.6euro

Uk's manufacturing standards will mirror EU's

Regards

I agree with most of this and certainly hope we don't end up with tariffs. But not with the idea that the UK would want their currency to go anywhere near 1.4/1.6 against the Euro. I imagine they would be very happy to keep it where it is now, in the range 1.10 to 1.15, or even lower against the Euro to help their exports. Many countries typically try to have their currency sink slowly over time to boost exports (competitive devaluations).

forgottenhills

Sam Russell wrote: »

It has not been that level (€1.40 = GB£1) since before the Brexit level was announced (Nov 2015). So, therefore, there needs to be a BRINO deal announced, that is fully implemented, or no Brexit at all but it is too late for that.

I would think it will be €1= 80p for a deal and parity for no deal, and then move from there.

Why on earth would the UK want their currency to go to €1.40 = GB£1 levels?
I think that even with a deal they will be very happy to keep it where it is now, in the range 1.10 to 1.15, or even lower against the Euro to help keep their exports competitive. Of course if no deal then it could easily sink to parity.

forgottenhills

rugbyman wrote: »

Sorry folks mis type.should have typed 1.14/1.15.its around 1.11 as we speak

Just seen this edit. Yes 1.14 -1.15 is a lot more like where the UK would want GBP/EUR!

listermint

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Exports? Like those half of exports that go to EU and now be hobbled by red tape and delays, and for what?

And tariffs.