Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

forgottenhills

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Exports? Like those half of exports that go to EU and now be hobbled by red tape and delays, and for what?

Its their business what for, I couldn't care less, as long as our exports still get sold into the UK. But the EU will still be importing from the UK, delays or not. Have a look at the labels on a lot of processed foods, chocolates etc that you buy every week in the supermarkets, a lot of this comes from the UK and we as consumers will still want to buy it after Jan 1st.

Spanish Eyes

I confidently predict that there will be a leave agreement soon. And hope I am correct. We all know this now. Brino maybe, but full exit from EU trade deal is receding I think.

However, if the insular Brexiteers leave with no deal, and Johnson agrees, well the EU will cope and say goodbye. The UK problem will be in Farage's Garage down in Kent.

johnnyskeleton

forgottenhills wrote: »

Its their business what for, I couldn't care less, as long as our exports still get sold into the UK. But the EU will still be importing from the UK, delays or not. Have a look at the labels on a lot of processed foods, chocolates etc that you buy every week in the supermarkets, a lot of this comes from the UK and we as consumers will still want to buy it after Jan 1st.

That is certainly true. However, I and I would hope many others have been making a conscious effort to avoid products made in GB. Hopefully supermarkets etc are doing likewise. Its not a protest or anything like that, its playing a small part in trying to make sure there is less disruption after Brexit.

IMO we can easily do without British processed goods. A bigger problem however is e.g. cereals, solid fuels, oil, car and machine parts etc which we either cant easily substitute out or which we import via the UK. Even though we produce a reasonable amount of barley and wheat, we import even more, and it mostly comes through the UK. The disruption to that trade will be more of an impact than, for example, tesco frozen pizzas or the like

Strazdas

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Exports? Like those half of exports that go to EU and now be hobbled by red tape and delays, and for what?

The striking thing about this is that the Brexit media will not be able to cover it up. Delays, tailbacks, chaos at the borders, SMEs losing loads of business and money.....these are all real and tangible and will be happening every day of the week.

Perhaps the first time ever the British media will be forced to discuss Brexit in a really bad light.

forgottenhills

Strazdas wrote: »

The striking thing about this is that the Brexit media will not be able to cover it up. Delays, tailbacks, chaos at the borders, SMEs losing loads of business and money.....these are all real and tangible and will be happening every day of the week.

Perhaps the first time ever the British media will be forced to discuss Brexit in a really bad light.

The British media is not homogenous, its mostly agenda driven for one side of the political divide or the other. So the Guardian, Independent, Financial Times etc have been hugely critical of Brexit from the get go. On the other side the Tory press have been behind a hard Brexit and will never criticise a bad outcome .

ExMachina1000

EU Brexit envoy Christophe Hansen has said that the UK may be given preferential access to deliver energy to the EU in return for the continuation of fishing status quo.

Danish and especially French fishing industries are heavily reliant on the use of uk fishing waters

Strazdas

forgottenhills wrote: »

The British media is not homogenous, its mostly agenda driven for one side of the political divide or the other. So the Guardian, Independent, Financial Times etc have been hugely critical of Brexit from the get go. On the other side the Tory press have been behind a hard Brexit and will never criticise a bad outcome .

80% of newspaper sales in the UK are of right wing newspapers. So we're not talking about a nice even split, with both sides of the Brexit argument being aired. Newspaper readers have mostly been getting a barrage of pro-Brexit and anti-EU propaganda for the last four and a half years.

As I said though, this all ends on January 1st. They will not be able to cover up what is going on.

View

forgottenhills wrote: »

I agree with most of this and certainly hope we don't end up with tariffs. But not with the idea that the UK would want their currency to go anywhere near 1.4/1.6 against the Euro. I imagine they would be very happy to keep it where it is now, in the range 1.10 to 1.15, or even lower against the Euro to help their exports. Many countries typically try to have their currency sink slowly over time to boost exports (competitive devaluations).

Many countries do rely on competitive devaluations but it is usually a sign of failing policies, not successful ones. The politicians in those countries are opting to avoid making tough decisions to turn their economies around and instead the people pay the price via a “sneak tax” as competitive devaluations make the price they pay for imports more expensive.

Capt'n Midnight

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

EU Brexit envoy Christophe Hansen has said that the UK may be given preferential access to deliver energy to the EU in return for the continuation of fishing status quo.

Danish and especially French fishing industries are heavily reliant on the use of uk fishing waters

That's pure Brexit since the UK is a nett importer of electricity.

Capt'n Midnight

Someone posted a little while back about contracts for the old boys club with decent margins. Here's an example.

Watch as UK government magically makes value of £500m framework contract swell to four times the size

How is this related to Brexit ? There's a lot of software.needed for customs etc.

AFAIK none of it is on-time on-budget. The delays and lost revenue of waving trucks through (the current plan for NI) will cost an absolute bloody fortune.



On the plus side, the UK may drop the Covid quarantine to as little as seven days. so good news for those truckers who may be stuck in the "Farage Garage's" in Kent that long. If the French authorities accept it.

snowstorm445

I must say I'm having doubts about where things will go after this. As crucial as it is to maintain alignment between the UK and the EU through a strong trade deal, the thought of Brexiteers smugness (unfounded as it would be) in the aftermath of a BRINO-like situation is very dispiriting. The line will be put out the EU caved, or that Brexit proved to be harmless to the UK overall. Small little facts like the UK having been the one to concede won't matter to Brexiteers - if the situation on the ground is essentially the same, the Tories can claim their campaign was successful, and it's likely Brexiteer sentiment will continue to fester in the country (with some different focus no doubt, maybe going after Scottish nationalists or immigrants). A simplistic reading of the situation will suggest to most people that the UK generally fared fine outside the EU, as was asserted back in 2016.

I recognise this sounds callous, but the only way to lance the Brexiteer boil is through some sort of fallout. To make any change, the Tories need to be hoisted by their own petard and shown up for who they are. Assuming nothing else comes down the road over the next few years (with Labour and opposition parties remaining hapless), Boris looks secure for the next election cycle at least. The Farages, Rees-Moggs and Raabs of British politics will remain unchallenged.

Of course the EU owes nothing to the UK or any section therein, and the priority should be a smooth transition, but Ireland and the rest of the EU will still more than likely be dealing with the same arrogant, crass leadership in London, newly invigorated after Brexit and potentially prepared to create more headaches for the EU down the line, or to egg on other Eurosceptic movements (mostly dormant as of right now, but I certainly don't think they have gone away). These movements can also point to the UK as an example to follow (misrepresenting the facts, of course, but the ordinary person on the street isn't going to care about the nitty-gritty of Brexit negotiations).

Strazdas

^^ But a trade deal will not be 'BRINO'. They are withdrawing from the Single Market and Customs Union on January 1st with resultant border chaos and a hit to the economy.

forgottenhills

snowstorm445 wrote: »

I must say I'm having doubts about where things will go after this. As crucial as it is to maintain alignment between the UK and the EU through a strong trade deal, the thought of Brexiteers smugness (unfounded as it would be) in the aftermath of a BRINO-like situation is very dispiriting. The line will be put out the EU caved, or that Brexit proved to be harmless to the UK overall. Small little facts like the UK having been the one to concede won't matter to Brexiteers - if the situation on the ground is essentially the same, the Tories can claim their campaign was successful, and it's likely Brexiteer sentiment will continue to fester in the country (with some different focus no doubt, maybe going after Scottish nationalists or immigrants). A simplistic reading of the situation will suggest to most people that the UK generally fared fine outside the EU, as was asserted back in 2016.

I recognise this sounds callous, but the only way to lance the Brexiteer boil is through some sort of fallout. To make any change, the Tories need to be hoisted by their own petard and shown up for who they are. Assuming nothing else comes down the road over the next few years (with Labour and opposition parties remaining hapless), Boris looks secure for the next election cycle at least. The Farages, Rees-Moggs and Raabs of British politics will remain unchallenged.

Of course the EU owes nothing to the UK or any section therein, and the priority should be a smooth transition, but Ireland and the rest of the EU will still more than likely be dealing with the same arrogant, crass leadership in London, newly invigorated after Brexit and potentially prepared to create more headaches for the EU down the line, or to egg on other Eurosceptic movements (mostly dormant as of right now, but I certainly don't think they have gone away). These movements can also point to the UK as an example to follow (misrepresenting the facts, of course, but the ordinary person on the street isn't going to care about the nitty-gritty of Brexit negotiations).

A lot of what you are saying is true but its an emotional response to the situation in my view. And by the way the UK us on the way to a hard Brexit, not a BRINO.

Looking at the big picture the UK is the 5th biggest economy in the world and the EU could never really afford to sever ties, given the huge trade links and interlinked economies. Then there was the radical negotiation style of the current UK government and the pressure of the ticking clock. I don't think that EU were ever under such negotiating pressure previously.

There will likely be Tory jubilation at a free trade deal with only a few strings attached as is likely to be the outcome but the best thing we can do is ignore it and be thankful for our economy that a no deal and trade war wasn't the outcome of the negotiations.

I believe that a bigger problem for the EU are the current Polish and Hungarian governments and their moves away from human rights as per Western values. This will prevent the EU functioning properly and may increase pressure for a move to majority voting and all that this entails for small countries like us. This will be a bigger problem for the EU in the medium term than Brexit unless there is regime change in these countries.

fash

forgottenhills wrote: »

A lot of what you are saying is true but its an emotional response to the situation in my view. And by the way the UK us on the way to a hard Brexit, not a BRINO.

Looking at the big picture the UK is the 5th biggest economy in the world and the EU could never really afford to sever ties, given the huge trade links and interlinked economies. Then there was the radical negotiation style of the current UK government and the pressure of the ticking clock. I don't think that EU were ever under such negotiating pressure previously.

There will likely be Tory jubilation at a free trade deal with only a few strings attached as is likely to be the outcome but the best thing we can do is ignore it and be thankful for our economy that a no deal and trade war wasn't the outcome of the negotiations.
.

Don't forget: an FTA is in EU's interest: it has a significant trade in good surplus. You'll note that nothing is behind agreed about trade in services in which the UK has a surplus.
So the current deal with the UK being discussed is more favourable to the EU than it is to the UK

listermint

forgottenhills wrote: »

A lot of what you are saying is true but its an emotional response to the situation in my view. And by the way the UK us on the way to a hard Brexit, not a BRINO.

Looking at the big picture the UK is the 5th biggest economy in the world and the EU could never really afford to sever ties, given the huge trade links and interlinked economies. Then there was the radical negotiation style of the current UK government and the pressure of the ticking clock. I don't think that EU were ever under such negotiating pressure previously.

There will likely be Tory jubilation at a free trade deal with only a few strings attached as is likely to be the outcome but the best thing we can do is ignore it and be thankful for our economy that a no deal and trade war wasn't the outcome of the negotiations.

I believe that a bigger problem for the EU are the current Polish and Hungarian governments and their moves away from human rights as per Western values. This will prevent the EU functioning properly and may increase pressure for a move to majority voting and all that this entails for small countries like us. This will be a bigger problem for the EU in the medium term than Brexit unless there is regime change in these countries.

6th. India stripped past it. On current understanding I believe France may have surpassed it post brexit leaving them 7th.


And falling

Enzokk

So it seems like the first deadline for a deal will rush past without a deal, 31st October, so the next deadline is the 15th November I think. There is another interesting point raised in the Remainiacs podcast that even that deadline can be missed and no-deal avoided as an agreement can be made to push out the transition by 3 months if a deal is close (or something like that).

I see the story about Johnson waiting for the US elections making sense now. His deadline wasn't the right one (15 October), the EU deadline wasn't the right one (31st October) so getting to wait for the election results makes sense for him.

Most people seem to think a bare deal will be agreed though, not BRINO but a FTA that is very basic. There is enough there already for this to be sorted. The UK will suffer as will those EU countries that trade with it, but that is the course they decided on with Brexit.

CelticRambler

listermint wrote: »

6th. India stripped past it. On current understanding I believe France may have surpassed it post brexit leaving them 7th.

6th or 7th is the place most league tables give to the UK; and don't forget Italy - pre-Covid, was within a hair's breath of the France and the UK. Furthermore, as I remarked a little while ago, the UK's position in that league table was enormously enhanced by its membership of the EU, an attribute now lost. Even some of it's magic-money-making activity, such as the export of gold, has suffered with the relocation of at least one bullion trader to Ireland because of Brexit.

The world's various economies will rebound after Covid, including that of the UK. But I would expect Brexit to drag the UK down to 10th position of lower within about five years (coincidentally adding fuel to the Scottish Independence fire).

View

forgottenhills wrote: »

A lot of what you are saying is true but its an emotional response to the situation in my view. And by the way the UK us on the way to a hard Brexit, not a BRINO.

Looking at the big picture the UK is the 5th biggest economy in the world and the EU could never really afford to sever ties, given the huge trade links and interlinked economies. Then there was the radical negotiation style of the current UK government and the pressure of the ticking clock. I don't think that EU were ever under such negotiating pressure previously.

There will likely be Tory jubilation at a free trade deal with only a few strings attached as is likely to be the outcome but the best thing we can do is ignore it and be thankful for our economy that a no deal and trade war wasn't the outcome of the negotiations.

I believe that a bigger problem for the EU are the current Polish and Hungarian governments and their moves away from human rights as per Western values. This will prevent the EU functioning properly and may increase pressure for a move to majority voting and all that this entails for small countries like us. This will be a bigger problem for the EU in the medium term than Brexit unless there is regime change in these countries.

The then much, much smaller European Communities survived for decades without a trade deal with the U.K. prior to it joining the then ECs. Equally, today, the EU survives perfectly happy without any trade deal with the USA and China, both of which are “top-5” trading partners of every EU country. The notion that the EU countries can’t afford to “sever ties”, should Brexiters insist on doing just that, just isn’t credible.

Likewise, the idea of the “ticking clock” putting pressure on the EU isn’t credible. It was the U.K. that requested a post-exit trade deal with the EU, not the EU that requested one with the U.K. No one forced the U.K. to put such a request in the Political Declaration, that accompanied the WA, rather it chose to make the request, as it could have just said it only wanted WTO rules, but didn’t.

trellheim

boris has pulled it lads

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/uk-tells-eu-there-is-no-basis-for-negotiations-after-british-pm-boris-johnson-halts-trade-talks-39692822.html

Sam Russell

trellheim wrote: »

boris has pulled it lads

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/uk-tells-eu-there-is-no-basis-for-negotiations-after-british-pm-boris-johnson-halts-trade-talks-39692822.html

However, firther down the article : ....

The pair, however, pledged to speak “early next week” in an indication that hopes of talks continuing have not been entirely extinguished, despite Downing Street telling reporters the negotiations were now “over”.

So, have they pulled it or just another story for the UK media?

Jizique

trellheim wrote: »

boris has pulled it lads

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/uk-tells-eu-there-is-no-basis-for-negotiations-after-british-pm-boris-johnson-halts-trade-talks-39692822.html

That’s the article from 2 weeks ago

trellheim

Jizique wrote: »

That’s the article from 2 weeks ago

its datestamped 01 november

On re-reading thought it just looks like the Indo has updated all its articles to make them look current which is not a good look for them, Sorry !

Sam Russell

trellheim wrote: »

its datestamped 01 november

I also assumed that the date stamp was correct, but then again, it's the Indo.

moon2

trellheim wrote: »

its datestamped 01 november

The linked tweets in the article are two weeks old. It looks like someone screwed up?

serfboard

trellheim wrote: »

boris has pulled it lads

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/uk-tells-eu-there-is-no-basis-for-negotiations-after-british-pm-boris-johnson-halts-trade-talks-39692822.html

Even though that story is dated today, I was getting a strong sense of déjà vu from it. This was confirmed by the tweet from Carolyn Fairbarn of the CBI which was sent two weeks ago. Pretty prescient of her if that’s the case. I must contact her and ask her for next Friday’s Euromillions numbers if she’s that good!

https://mobile.twitter.com/cbicarolyn/status/1317092280742928386

Jizique

trellheim wrote: »

its datestamped 01 november

On re-reading thought it just looks like the Indo has updated all its articles to make them look current which is not a good look for them, Sorry !

I didn’t understand the date either but it is definitely the same article; anyway, talks are set for Brussels this week, not London so that is the giveaway

CelticRambler

Oh-ho, what have we here? the government will be putting the recently established trade and agriculture commission on a statutory footing with a new amendment to the agriculture bill

The government has finally vowed not to allow chlorinated chicken or hormone-fed beef on British supermarket shelves, defying demands from the US that animal welfare standards be lowered as part of a future trade deal.

The international trade secretary, Liz Truss, and the environment minister, George Eustice, have also revealed the government will be putting the recently established trade and agriculture commission on a statutory footing with a new amendment to the agriculture bill.

The National Farmers’ Union president, Minette Batters, declared the move to put food standards into primary legislation a “landmark moment for the people of the UK, for our countryside and the future of the food on our plates”.

The U-turn over the agriculture bill comes just days after Boris Johnson met Batters for a private meeting over food standards.

She said the prime minister had responded to the NFU petition, which had been signed by more than 1 million people, and the campaign by animal welfare experts, environmental charities, politicians and celebrities including Jamie Oliver and Joe Wicks.

“It was clear to me how much he personally cares about this issue. I am delighted that he has led the government to draw a line in the sand and commit to the 2019 Conservative manifesto commitment not to undermine our farmers in future trade deals,” she said.

Call me a crusty old cynic, but I think Minette Batters has been a useful stooge. To me, this reads as a stage-setting exercise for Britain applying for, and being granted, listed status as a third country, so that UK agri-produce and derivatives can enter the Single Market with minimal new checks.

I doubt very much that Johnson "personally cares about this issue." Instead, I'd wager a certain Michel Barnier told him that there was absolutely zero chance of British plants, animals or derivatives thereof being waved through the EU ports from Jan 1st, and he went looking for some kind of manoeuvre that'd make him look good to the domestic audience and avoid the spectacle of lorries full of rotting flesh parked up in Kent. Lots of feel-good spin, while quietly paving the way for the EU to say "Ah, well seeing as you've finally put your standards in writing, we can approve your application ... "

Nody

CelticRambler wrote: »

Call me a crusty old cynic, but I think Minette Batters has been a useful stooge. To me, this reads as a stage-setting exercise for Britain applying for, and being granted, listed status as a third country, so that UK agri-produce and derivatives can enter the Single Market with minimal new checks.

I doubt very much that Johnson "personally cares about this issue." Instead, I'd wager a certain Michel Barnier told him that there was absolutely zero chance of British plants, animals or derivatives thereof being waved through the EU ports from Jan 1st, and he went looking for some kind of manoeuvre that'd make him look good to the domestic audience and avoid the spectacle of lorries full of rotting flesh parked up in Kent. Lots of feel-good spin, while quietly paving the way for the EU to say "Ah, well seeing as you've finally put your standards in writing, we can approve your application ... "

Sorry but I think it's not cynical enough; they realized with Biden now being a 90%+ chance of winning next week their hoped for US trade deal is dead in the water; hence the pivot to focus on getting that EU deal after all. If they thought Trump would win and a US trade deal would come they would not even give a damn about the EU trade deal and continue the "hardball" stance. They are still hedging their bets by continuing the negotiations into next week as that will let them see the likely outcome for any last minute change of minds if Trump pulls one out of the hat.

Peregrinus

fash wrote: »

Don't forget: an FTA is in EU's interest: it has a significant trade in good surplus. You'll note that nothing is behind agreed about trade in services in which the UK has a surplus.
So the current deal with the UK being discussed is more favourable to the EU than it is to the UK

So far as it goes. But it's a very, very thin deal; EU would prefer a much deeper one, which would confer more benefit on both parties.

Brexiters are obsessed with trade surpluses, for reasons that I have never quite understood (and, I suspect, they haven't understood either). The EU isn't, however, and from the EU's point of view whether a deal is good or bad isn't really measured by the effect it has on trade surpluses.

Jizique

Peregrinus wrote: »

So far as it goes. But it's a very, very thin deal; EU would prefer a much deeper one, which would confer more benefit on both parties.

Brexiters are obsessed with trade surpluses, for reasons that I have never quite understood (and, I suspect, they haven't understood either). The EU isn't, however, and from the EU's point of view whether a deal is good or bad isn't really measured by the effect it has on trade surpluses.

Trump also obsessed with trade surpluses.
Some chatter that fish is agreed, broadly no change and kicked into the long grass for a few years