Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

listermint wrote: »

In other news in accordance with the UKs actions so far to line themselves up for the bestest deal from the democrats and biden...


https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1323583660424110080?s=20

The EU should suspend negotiations immediately.

Zubeneschamali

The UK failed to respond to the EUs letter about the Internal Market bill because they've lost interest in it, that was last months wizard wheeze.

It will be quietly amended as part of the deal.

Edit: typical EU girly swot stuff thinking that breaking those rules back then still matters.

RobMc59

listermint wrote: »

I took account of your comments on GFA.the UK have ignored it so far to date, what's changed.
And Johnson has bypassed all his own deadlines and pushed talks right into November. It's entirely true.


You are the one ignoring facts. And you have been getting increasingly daily mail in your analysis. It's bubbling to the surface more frequently.

Perhaps I'm cynical but having worked for a number of US companies,the almighty dollar is the most important thing to them and whilst I agree the US won't do any deal with the UK if it totally disregards the GFA,I know they won't pass up the chance of a deal they consider advantageous to themselves on a sentimental whim.

listermint

RobMc59 wrote: »

Perhaps I'm cynical but having worked for a number of US companies,the almighty dollar is the most important thing to them and whilst I agree the US won't do any deal with the UK if it totally disregards the GFA,I know they won't pass up the chance of a deal they consider advantageous to themselves on a sentimental whim.

Don't over estimate what a deal the UK means to the US That's the core problem you have here. There's a myth on believing this will be one super economic power trading with another .

It's not.

It's more hubris and you have fallen for it hook line and sinker.

Sam Russell

RobMc59 wrote: »

Perhaps I'm cynical but having worked for a number of US companies,the almighty dollar is the most important thing to them and whilst I agree the US won't do any deal with the UK if it totally disregards the GFA,I know they won't pass up the chance of a deal they consider advantageous to themselves on a sentimental whim.

They will not do a deal with the UK if it is going to jeopardize a deal with the EU, which is more important and likely much more advantageous to them. However sentiment matters to them.

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

Perhaps I'm cynical but having worked for a number of US companies,the almighty dollar is the most important thing to them and whilst I agree the US won't do any deal with the UK if it totally disregards the GFA,I know they won't pass up the chance of a deal they consider advantageous to themselves on a sentimental whim.

This is exactly the same line peddled by Farage & Co prior to the referendum. The US has had ages to establish negotiations with the UK. If the above is true, why has it not done so?

Christy42

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is exactly the same line peddled by Farage & Co prior to the referendum. The US has had ages to establish negotiations with the UK. If the above is true, why has it not done so?

I would say the Democrats hold the gfa in higher regard. I reckon the Republican strategy is to cripple the UK and then offer a deal. Hopefully the UK will have destroyed its relations with the EU so they can't deal there on a point of pride. So the US gets whatever it wants as it will be the only option for the UK.

The UK is not crippled, it still has a free trade agreement with the EU. A year of no deal may soften them. That is my read on why "America First" has encouraged Brexit without offering real support. Now the US may get a slightly beneficial deal, if anything. A year of no deal will give them whatever they want.

Professor Moriarty

Both Biden and Pelosi have said there will be no US-UK trade agreement if the GFA is broken in any way.

jm08

RobMc59 wrote: »

Realistically,the UK was always going to concede on fishing if the EU was willing to compromise also.
I wouldn't pin too many hopes Biden would cut off his nose to spite his face regarding any potential trade deal with the UK because of his Irish descent.(Obviously the UK disregarding the GFA would change this)There are many people of Irish descent here in the UK and even if they don't agree with the current government,the interests of the UK comes first.

There isn't much in it for the US. Seemingly, Mark Francois and Rees-Mogg were really condecending to Nancy Pelosi and Richard Neal when they met which didn't go down real well with the US Congress Group. Seemingly, Francois was a bit surprised that the US Congress group were so well informed about the Border in Ireland. Then, Richard Neal's grandmother (who brought him up) was from Fermanagh I think and emigrated to the US in 1929 so hardly in the long and distant past.



https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-speaker-told-condescending-mark-14392890

trellheim

trellheim wrote: »

Danes and French will have their own redlines on fishies its not as simple as that.

EU officials have downplayed reports of a breakthrough on fisheries in the Brexit negotiations.

"We have not yet found a solution on fisheries," said Dan Ferrie, a spokesman for Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator.

tony connelly in with the real stuff

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1323672269122605058

I wonder why this is being floated (excuse the pun) outside the tunnel, remember fishing CAN NOT be the last item , this is a gesture of some sort.

RobMc59

fash wrote: »

It is- but behind closed doors. You think the Tories are silly enough to discredit themselves in front of the (what they clearly regards as) sheep?

I replied to your original unedited post fash in which you insulted the UK public.

RobMc59

CelticRambler wrote: »

Rob has clearly expressed an opinion - what's desperate about that?

While I think his hypothetical forecast is off target, he has a point: the Democratic Party in the US is no more left-wing than the Tories were before they mutated into the Palatable Brexit Party. In the absence of any extenuating circumstances, therefore, it'd be quite reasonable to expect the US to want to make a US-favorable (sic :P ) trade deal with the UK.

What will frustrate that ambition, in the event of a Biden victory, is that there are extenuating circumstances, namely the US's need to rehabilitate its image over the next few years. In practical terms, that means that the whole of Biden's term will be spent trying to avoid upsetting the EU, and the US will not do anything vis-à-vis the UK that risks torpedoing attempts to rebuild that relationship.

The UK wanted to be seen as a Serious World Power, equivalent to the China, US, the EU ... well, as we've seen quite often, sometimes Serious World Powers gang up on each other. Britain will have to fight its corner alone, and there are no indications that Johnson & Co. are capable of putting their gloves on correctly, let alone climbing into the ring.

Do you really believe the US is worried about upsetting the EU by not entering into a trade deal with the UK?(I understand the US expect the UK to respect the GFA)
The EU is a colossus in trading terms but not a super power as it has no credible coordinated military clout.
Britain is a mid level world power and has`nt been a super power since WW2.

RobMc59

listermint wrote: »

Don't over estimate what a deal the UK means to the US That's the core problem you have here. There's a myth on believing this will be one super economic power trading with another .

It's not.

It's more hubris and you have fallen for it hook line and sinker.

I don`t want any deal with the US.All they would be looking for is to sell us inferior food and try and take over the NHS.(Probably over simplified but that`s it in a nutshell)

RobMc59

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is exactly the same line peddled by Farage & Co prior to the referendum. The US has had ages to establish negotiations with the UK. If the above is true, why has it not done so?

ACD,who(apart from trump) takes farage seriously.
Trump and johnson have discussed trade deals,this is common knowledge.

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

ACD,who(apart from trump) takes farage seriously.
Trump and johnson have discussed trade deals,this is common knowledge.

So if the capitalists as you so call them are so desperate, where is the trade deal? They've had over four years.

RobMc59

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

So if the capitalists as you so call them are so desperate, where is the trade deal? They've had over four years.

I don't think the US is desperate,Johnson probably would like a deal to waffle on about.
Biden would be a better president for the world in general as trump has caused misery,hatred and mayhem everywhere imo.Putin is probably delighted all his schemes have come together in the perfect storm,discord in Europe and trump in power.

Sterling and the Markets up, looks like the money is on a Trump win and possibly better chance of a favourable deal with the US.

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Sterling and the Markets up, looks like the money is on a Trump win and possibly better chance of a favourable deal with the US.

The sterling market is down. It was 90 nearly 91 last week..it's down today.

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

Do you really believe the US is worried about upsetting the EU by not entering into a trade deal with the UK?(I understand the US expect the UK to respect the GFA)

Not worried about not entering a trade deal with the UK, but if there are trade deals being discussed, they won't agree anything with the UK that will scupper any chance of getting a bigger, better deal with the EU.

RobMc59 wrote: »

The EU is a colossus in trading terms but not a super power as it has no credible coordinated military clout.
Britain is a mid level world power and has`nt been a super power since WW2.

The idea of super powers being those with military clout is 19th century stuff. These days, the real power lies in non-military alliances and influence. When all is said and done, the vast majority of the world's people just want to get on with buying and selling whatever it is that makes their lives comfortable. Military might was of relevance when a few dominant countries had colonies to exploit and needed to fend off other colonial powers. Now all those colonies have gained independence in one form or another, and they prefer to do business with countries that don't threaten them with a big stick. That's why you have minnows like Ireland out-performing the UK in the balance of trade with giants like China; and China sucking up all of Africa's resources while the Americans fight unwinnable wars in the Middle East.

This takes us back to the perpetual question about a post-Brexit disUnited Kingdom: what can it offer to a prospective trading partner? Visas, fish and money-laundering seem to be the only things of value to outsiders.

listermint

listermint wrote: »

The sterling market is down. It was 90 nearly 91 last week..it's down today.

It's €1 : 89.5 at the time of posting, so is slightly up in value relative to the Euro.

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's €1 : 89.5 at the time of posting, so is slightly up in value relative to the Euro.

So it's down then. As I said.

Which I knew because I made a large purchase on Amazon. I'm tracking it because of that not because of trump.

joeysoap

as a border resident who watches for swings we would say sterling is up. In the last week certainly. I don’t think it’s got anything to do with Trump though, more a deal is imminent.

Widdensushi

I think it will be no deal, there is no indication of a deal, from what I can see eu should have walked away long ago

Peregrinus

The buzz in London is that the need for the UK to go into lockdown this week raises the likelihood of a deal - government is perceived to be failing in its management of the pandemic, and can't afford to be seen also to fail to secure "the easiest deal in history". Strengthening expectations of a Biden win in the US also make an EU deal more attractive to the UK. And thee factors are is probably what's behind the slight uptick in sterling.

Widdensushi

Sterling price no longer matters much

Peregrinus

Widdensushi wrote: »

Sterling price no longer matters much

It matters quite a lot if you're holding sterling, or selling things into the UK, or buying things from the UK.

Geuze

listermint wrote: »

The sterling market is down. It was 90 nearly 91 last week..it's down today.

The GBP has risen during the last week, against the euro.


https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-gbp.en.html


Mon 26-Oct = 90.8 pence
Tue = similar
Wed = similar

Thur 29-Oct, pound up to 90.4 p
Fri 30-Oct, pound up again to 90.2 pence

This week: Mon and Tue = 90 pence.

So the euro has fallen by nearly a penny, the GBP is up.

But that is before the election news.

Geuze

Against the USD, the pound has been rising, today.

https://www.investing.com/currencies/gbp-usd

Geuze

Today so far, the EUR / BGBP has moved as follows:

https://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-gbp


The euro rose at first, but is now down under 90p.

So a rise for the pound, probably based on Brexit FTA talks.

joeysoap

Widdensushi wrote: »

Sterling price no longer matters much

Says somebody who doesn’t live in a border area.