Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

View

joeysoap wrote: »

Says somebody who doesn’t live in a border area.

The number of people in the state who live in a border area - let’say, 50kms of it to use the Schengen definition for their Border Zone visa - is a small fraction of the population of the state. Likewise, for companies in the state, only a small fraction of them are based in that border area.

To base our policy on a small fraction of the total and ignore the inconvenience it generates for everyone else in the state is stupid, although that is exactly what we have done.

Contrast us with Spain, where they said from day one of Brexit they would apply EU Customs controls and Schengen rules on their border with.Gibraltar - the result of that is that Gibraltar is apparently set to join an agreement bringing it into both the EU Customs Union and Schengen, a position which is at total variance with the U.K. and one that is far more “integrated” into the EU than Gibraltar has had for the decades of the U.K.’s membership.

Winters

View wrote: »

Contrast us with Spain, where they said from day one of Brexit they would apply EU Customs controls and Schengen rules on their border with.Gibraltar - the result of that is that Gibraltar is apparently set to join an agreement bringing it into both the EU Customs Union and Schengen, a position which is at total variance with the U.K. and one that is far more “integrated” into the EU than Gibraltar has had for the decades of the U.K.’s membership.

Hardly a comparison between NI/IRL crossing points (300) and Gib/ESP crossing points (1)

View

Winters wrote: »

Hardly a comparison between NI/IRL crossing points (300) and Gib/ESP crossing points (1)

Of course there is a comparison.

Spain said they would follow EU rules in full and, faced with that, Gibraltar choose to further integrate into the EU, rather than follow the U.K. out.

We, by way of contrast, have tied ourselves up in knots to avoid following EU rules in full and, hence, faced with us doing that, there is absolutely no reason for (the majority in) NI to even consider discussing following Gibraltar’s example or anything comparable to it.

Also, your point about the number of border crossing does not detract from the fact that only a small minority of people and businesses in the stage live within the border area and, to avoid inconvenience to them, we are refusing to apply the EU Treaties in full and instead are inconveniencing everyone else in the state, and the citizens of every other EU country, when they travel to/from the rest of the EU, even though it provides no benefit whatsoever to any of the latter two categories.

Enzokk

Another day and another update, apparently things are going backwards again.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1324041493544390656?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1324041496119660545?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1324041498783109124?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1324041501459009539?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1324041502780235776?s=20

TLDR, still no agreement on those 3 areas that have been mentioned all the time. Even on fisheries there isn't agreement and the stories about a EU compromise of sorts was wrong.

Also the UK have gone back in some areas that seem to have meant a deal would be closer. So it is not looking good again. I don't know what to think really, we could see no FTA but then again a deal will come quickly as well. This could be the EU trying to scare the UK and markets into facing reality.

1st dalkey dalkey

Enzokk wrote: »

Another day and another update, apparently things are going backwards again.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1324041493544390656?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1324041496119660545?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1324041498783109124?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1324041501459009539?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1324041502780235776?s=20

TLDR, still no agreement on those 3 areas that have been mentioned all the time. Even on fisheries there isn't agreement and the stories about a EU compromise of sorts was wrong.

Also the UK have gone back in some areas that seem to have meant a deal would be closer. So it is not looking good again. I don't know what to think really, we could see no FTA but then again a deal will come quickly as well. This could be the EU trying to scare the UK and markets into facing reality.

Or it could be the impact of the US election.

Early results put paid to a blue wave and suggested that Trump might win.

That would put a different perspective on the UK's position.

If Biden turns things around, the UK might beat a hasty retreat on all those issues.

CelticRambler

Enzokk wrote: »

Another day and another update, apparently things are going backwards again.

The stand-out message, for me, from that thread is this:

7/ It's understood Mr Barnier believes the UK is "too relaxed" about the time frame, ie not taking account of the European Parliament's timetable to ratify the treaty, once it's legally scrubbed and translated etc

Sounds like we're back to the Brexiters' belief that the EU always finds a way to agree things at the 11th hour.

Then again, maybe it's just another manifestation of their failure to understand the basic principles of time and space.

listermint

Geuze wrote: »

The GBP has risen during the last week, against the euro.


https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-gbp.en.html


Mon 26-Oct = 90.8 pence
Tue = similar
Wed = similar

Thur 29-Oct, pound up to 90.4 p
Fri 30-Oct, pound up again to 90.2 pence

This week: Mon and Tue = 90 pence.

So the euro has fallen by nearly a penny, the GBP is up.

But that is before the election news.

It was 89 ish when I wrote that post btw. I know because I bought something on Amazon via revolut.

Sam Russell

listermint wrote: »

It was 89 ish when I wrote that post btw. I know because I bought something on Amazon via revolut.

It is in a narrow range - nothing like last Feb when it was 83p. A penny is not much either way, but it did strengthen slightly on Nov 4th when Trump looked the likely winner.

joeysoap

View wrote: »

The number of people in the state who live in a border area - let’say, 50kms of it to use the Schengen definition for their Border Zone visa - .......

Thanks you for the reply
FWIW About 5kms to the closest point and 11 kms to Newry. About 10 mins. Not as close as some, but like most keep a small amount of sterling handy, which I top up when sterling falls a bit. (Best I got was last year 92p, this year 90p)


But I take your point about the majority. Would obviously prefer a deal.

serfboard

Widdensushi wrote: »

Sterling price no longer matters much

joeysoap wrote: »

Says somebody who doesn’t live in a border area.

View wrote: »

The number of people in the state who live in a border area - let’say, 50kms of it to use the Schengen definition for their Border Zone visa - is a small fraction of the population of the state. Likewise, for companies in the state, only a small fraction of them are based in that border area.

To base our policy on a small fraction of the total and ignore the inconvenience it generates for everyone else in the state is stupid, although that is exactly what we have done.

In relation to Sterling, our policy is not based on people who live in the border area, but on the massive amounts of trade between the two countries. A big price differential in Sterling could literally wipe many small companies out. Take the small example of mushrooms:

Teagasc wrote:

The mushroom industry is the largest horticultural sector in Ireland. It has a farm gate value of €119million, of which approximately 80% is exported to the UK. It currently employs over 3,500 people.

This is replicated in many small businesses in Ireland - particularly in relation to food.

View wrote: »

Contrast us with Spain ...

What percentage of Spain's exports goes to the UK vs Ireland's?

Peregrinus

View wrote: »

The number of people in the state who live in a border area - let’say, 50kms of it to use the Schengen definition for their Border Zone visa - is a small fraction of the population of the state. Likewise, for companies in the state, only a small fraction of them are based in that border area.

To base our policy on a small fraction of the total and ignore the inconvenience it generates for everyone else in the state is stupid, although that is exactly what we have done.

But it's absurd to suggest that a hardening of the border only affects people who live near the border, or companies based near it. Or am I misunderstanding you?

View wrote: »

Spain said they would follow EU rules in full and, faced with that, Gibraltar choose to further integrate into the EU, rather than follow the U.K. out.

We, by way of contrast, have tied ourselves up in knots to avoid following EU rules in full and, hence, faced with us doing that, there is absolutely no reason for (the majority in) NI to even consider discussing following Gibraltar’s example or anything comparable to it.

Different situation, though. Gibraltar is not part of the UK and Brexiters don't really care what they do. It has always had a separate status vis-a-vis EU from the UK's status. But this is not true of NI. What the majority in NI want or think has absolutely no bearing on how the UK conducts Brexit. Thus NI following Gibraltar's example was never even a remote possibility; it would have been madness for Irlgov to adopt a strategy based on that happening.

volchitsa

View wrote: »

The number of people in the state who live in a border area - let’say, 50kms of it to use the Schengen definition for their Border Zone visa - is a small fraction of the population of the state. Likewise, for companies in the state, only a small fraction of them are based in that border area.

To base our policy on a small fraction of the total and ignore the inconvenience it generates for everyone else in the state is stupid, although that is exactly what we have done.

Contrast us with Spain, where they said from day one of Brexit they would apply EU Customs controls and Schengen rules on their border with.Gibraltar - the result of that is that Gibraltar is apparently set to join an agreement bringing it into both the EU Customs Union and Schengen, a position which is at total variance with the U.K. and one that is far more “integrated” into the EU than Gibraltar has had for the decades of the U.K.’s membership.

Are you including Irish citizens living within 50 km of the Northern Ireland side of the border? I'd say it's actually
quite a high number - the whole of Derry city for one thing.

Peregrinus

volchitsa wrote: »

Are you including Irish citizens living within 50 km of the Northern Ireland side of the border? I'd say it's actually
quite a high number - the whole of Derry city for one thing.

Nah, he's not including people living in NI - there's a bit of a clue in the words "in the State".

On the NI side, a signficant chunk of the population lives within 50 km of the border. That includes not just Derry City but Newry, Portadown, Lurgan, Strabane, Fermanagh, Omagh and many more towns.

paul71

Peregrinus wrote: »

Nah, he's not including people living in NI - there's a bit of a clue in the words "in the State".

On the NI side, a signficant chunk of the population lives within 50 km of the border. That includes not just Derry City but Newry, Portadown, Lurgan, Strabane, Fermanagh, Omagh and many more towns.

Dundalk and Drogheda are 2 of the largest towns in The State, in fact both are larger than some towns we choose to call cities.

joeysoap

QT last night.


conservative MP - we can live with no deal
Head of Next- we can leave with no deal, we’re ready for it, as long as the ports stay open.
Another businessman who escapes me - we can live with no deal


Lisa Nandy - we need a deal. It’s alright for big companies like Next, what about the small companies?

Corbyn has a lot to answer for

joeysoap

Peregrinus wrote: »

Nah, he's not including people living in NI - there's a bit of a clue in the words "in the State".

On the NI side, a signficant chunk of the population lives within 50 km of the border. That includes not just Derry City but Newry, Portadown, Lurgan, Strabane, Fermanagh, Omagh and many more towns.

Enniskillen even

Joking, but a good point. A good few of my ‘ close contacts’ live in border areas,

Jizique

joeysoap wrote: »

QT last night.


conservative MP - we can live with no deal
Head of Next- we can leave with no deal, we’re ready for it, as long as the ports stay open.
Another businessman who escapes me - we can live with no deal


Lisa Nandy - we need a deal. It’s alright for big companies like Next, what about the small companies?

Corbyn has a lot to answer for

Jeez, they will string Johnson up when he tries to accept the deal on the table.

Enzokk

Tony Connelly with his weekly update of the talks.

Brexit: Time the real enemy as talks enter fateful 10 days

When EU negotiators returned from London on the Eurostar on 28 October the mood was positive.

The talks had entered a more intensive phase the previous Friday, and negotiators had been working flat out. The 100-strong UK team would follow their EU counterparts to Brussels on 29 October.

"People had the feeling we were coming closer to a deal," says one EU diplomat. "The UK were buying into possible compromises, even if we knew that on fisheries we were very far apart."

However, on 29 October, when negotiations resumed in the Albert Borschette Congress Centre in Brussels, the mood turned cooler.

According to multiple sources on the EU side, the progress that seemed to have been made in London had now stalled or gone into reverse.

"Once they came over to Brussels it seems as if they put their foot on the brake," says one official.

"There's been no progress," said an EU diplomat. "If anything, they’ve retreated rather than gone forward."

UK sources agree that things had been going well in London, but strongly contest the EU’s depiction of events.

Basically the sides are still far apart on key issues and it seemed like there was progress when the talks ended in London but the UK retreated when the talks resumed. This could be because they are playing for time to get a compromise at the last minute. This makes a lot of sense.

Or it could be because Johnson has not been able to come to terms with the compromises he has to make and he has not run it by cabinet to test how they react. This means there has been stalling from the UK side. This also makes sense.

There is the phone call coming up with Von Der Leyen and it is hoped that the call this afternoon will lead to a breakthrough. In any case time is running out and the UK bleating about the EU moving at the last minute may just have seen the EU decide not to move to prove this doesn't happen. Exciting times ahead in any case as the next week or 10 days will decide if there is a deal or not.

As for what may happen? Well with the apparent election of Biden and his public pronouncements of support for the GFA and the peace process and the Democrats retaining the House, I wonder if the UK can still gamble on no-deal? There wasn't a lot of indications this would work even with Trump as president, but with Biden you would think this is dead in the water.

Then again we have people who seem to think that the UK can slow play the EU to get what they want so those same people may just be thinking they have the upper hand at every point, no matter what they do.

Brussels Sprout

With the US Election raging for the past few months I haven't had the bandwidth to pay any attention to Brexit. All I know is that the UK is set to end their transition period on January 1st and to the best of my knowledge they do not currently have any deal with the EU to replace it.

What are the important upcoming dates? What is the most likely outcome? How much of a chance is there of a No-Deal scenario?

Sam Russell

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

With the US Election raging for the past few months I haven't had the bandwidth to pay any attention to Brexit. All I know is that the UK is set to end their transition period on January 1st and to the best of my knowledge they do not currently have any deal with the EU to replace it.

What are the important upcoming dates? What is the most likely outcome? How much of a chance is there of a No-Deal scenario?

The American election count is looking like a slow bicycle race as it crawls to a conclusion. It looks like watching paint dry, as every vote is scrutinised from every angle.

Brexit is looking like a slow bicycle race as it crawls to a conclusion. It looks like watching paint dry, as every bit of progress is disavowed by the UK before it has been digested. Then the talks are off, until they are back on again. And of course the other way round. Brussels are saying nothing.

I think that is an adequate summation. You missed nothing.

tanko

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

With the US Election raging for the past few months I haven't had the bandwidth to pay any attention to Brexit. All I know is that the UK is set to end their transition period on January 1st and to the best of my knowledge they do not currently have any deal with the EU to replace it.

What are the important upcoming dates? What is the most likely outcome? How much of a chance is there of a No-Deal scenario?

The latest deadline is Dec 31st, a few weeks before this another fudge will be agreed and the can will be kicked a bit further down the road yet again.
This will be rinsed and repeated for the next few years and we will end up with BRINO. There's zero chance of no deal, there's always a deal, the British economy is falling off a cliff at the moment, their cough is well softened now.

Sam Russell

tanko wrote: »

The latest deadline is Dec 31st, a few weeks before this another fudge will be agreed and the can will be kicked a bit further down the road yet again.
This will be rinsed and repeated for the next few years and we will end up with BRINO. There's zero chance of no deal, there's always a deal, the British economy is falling off a cliff at the moment, their cough is well softened now.

Well, they need 50,000 customs officers to start checking imports and verifying exports, and it takes six months to train those customs officers to be effective. To date, none have started training. Their software to deal with C&E will not be ready till June 2021, if it is delivered on time, and it is bug free. Neither is typical of their software projects.

They will need to have customs clearance clerks to prepare the customs documentation and again they have not enough by any measure. They also need a vast number of trained vets for SPS inspection, and again they have as near to none.

I think they need an extension or a BRINO deal.

ancapailldorcha

tanko wrote: »

The latest deadline is Dec 31st, a few weeks before this another fudge will be agreed and the can will be kicked a bit further down the road yet again.
This will be rinsed and repeated for the next few years and we will end up with BRINO. There's zero chance of no deal, there's always a deal, the British economy is falling off a cliff at the moment, their cough is well softened now.

This deadline is enshrined in law and can't really be fudged as the Tories refused to request an extension.

I think the most likely outcome is a basic deal for goods with more negotiations happening. A poor outcome but it is what it is. A BRINO if one is to occur is years away.

johnnyskeleton

Mod note

Some posted deleted. There is no merit in taking digs at other posters weeks later

VinLieger

Heard Peter King on the radio eatlier reiterating there will be no deal if the GFA is undermined

Headshot

Don't think BJ will very much like this result in the USA at all

Nody

Headshot wrote: »

Don't think BJ will very much like this result in the USA at all

I got a feeling that a lot of last week's objections and backpaddling will suddenly disappear and UK will claim they don't understand what EU are talking about.

VinLieger

Nody wrote: »

I got a feeling that a lot of last week's objections and backpaddling will suddenly disappear and UK will claim they don't understand what EU are talking about.

Maybe they will go back to that lost emails excuse.

CrabRevolution

Headshot wrote: »

Don't think BJ will very much like this result in the USA at all

I'm sure they'll start presenting it as a positive, play up the "special relationship" and continue to jockey to stay as chief suckers up to the USA. While I don't see Biden being as proactively pro-EU or anti-Brexit as some here predict, it's definitely a bad result for brexiters.

I'd see the immediate result as more rhetorical and mental than practical. They've lost the last shred of believability to their (nonsense to begin with) notion that brexit britain isn't taking a step backwards but is instead at the vanguard of a change sweeping the world, where countries reject stuffy old multilateralism and international co-operation and instead exercise total sovereignty and only engage in transactional deals and banging their fist on the table declaring how big their economy is so the other side are obliged to submit to their demands.

The complete failure of any countries to even hint at following them out of the EU over the last 5 years was already a telling sign, but numerous pro-brexit arguments over the years have been backed up with nothing more than "Yeah well we don't need the EU. Johnson and Trump are going to form our own club while the EU crumbles". Despite the fact that Trump got elected on promises of the USA punishing their traditional allies, and how the USA was very upfront in the harsh demands they intended on making on the UK in the event of any deal, a UK-USA trade deal from a US president intent on spiting the EU was still a central article of faith and beacon of hope for Brexit.

I think the "Irish American lobby" is a bit overstated, and don't see Biden making the GFA a hill to die on, but he won't be able to ignore it as much as Trump would have. Trump could ride roughshod over any agreement like that since A. He didn't believe in any international agreement that wasn't heavily skewed in America's favour and B. He was elected on the basis that 50% of Americans were bad people and deserved to be totally ignored anyway. Biden will at least listen to all views when president, though he won't satisfy them all. He will definitely be mindful that abetting the UK against the EU will be a bad thing for Ireland, and will filter into whatever Irish-American lobby does exist.

VinLieger

I hope this clip plays in Johnsons nightmares for the weeks to come

https://twitter.com/Celticcurio/status/1325134614483103744?s=19