Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

CrabRevolution wrote: »

I think the "Irish American lobby" is a bit overstated, and don't see Biden making the GFA a hill to die on ...

Not exactly sure where I heard it (was streaming multiple news sources at the time :rolleyes: ) but one talking head remarked that Biden had already planned a trip to Ireland in the event that he was elected, possibly (as part of) his first official overseas trip as President. From what I can recall, when the comment was made, it wasn't even in the context of Brexit. Caught me by surprise, and I had other things to attend to at the time, so not sure how well-founded the idea was ... but there's a heck of a lot of US money in Ireland, and Ireland is now well positioned to be the US's preferred access point into the EU, so it would make sense for Biden to visit the aul' sod.

10000maniacs

Now that Biden is confirmed, watch the Tories scramble to get a deal over the line with the EU.
While they may have gotten away with playing hardball on an EU deal with Trump there, but with Biden as US president, they really have no choice now but to agree on something with the EU, and quickly.

devnull

10000maniacs wrote: »

Now that Biden is confirmed, watch the Tories scramble to get a deal over the line with the EU.
While they may have gotten away with playing hardball on an EU deal with Trump there, but with Biden as US president, they really have no choice now but to agree on something with the EU, and quickly.

Don't worry, Mr Raab is still hoping that processes might save them
https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1325134134889607170

Very odd wording of a tweet, doesn't do the Tories any favours.

CrabRevolution

devnull wrote: »

Don't worry, Mr Raab is still hoping that processes might save them
https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1325134134889607170

Very odd wording of a tweet, doesn't do the Tories any favours.

Certainly has a "through gritted teeth" look about it. Surprised he hasn't pulled the "But the Democrats won't control the senate so realistically they lost" card.

I think the very fact a cabinet minister has had to come out already and state that Johnson is not a "mini-Trump" just shows how worried this will have some conservatives.

They're also claiming they'll now "make sure" the USA will be involved in G7, the WHO, Paris Climate Agreement etc. Because obviously Joe Biden has no policy on any of those things and has been planning on waiting for the UK to direct the USA on what to do :rolleyes:.

Capt'n Midnight

There are 33 working days before Brexit [nothing happens over Christmas]

Software still ain't ready , and even if it is companies still need training and integration.

"A minimum viable product will be released in December 2020 and this will be followed by a second release by June 2021 that will provide more functionality and enable the delivery of GB import and export controls."

...
In addition to general UK/EU trade, the GVMS is set to be used for specific arrangements in Northern Ireland – dubbed the Digital Office of Transit Function – and for trade in Northern Ireland, made necessary because of the no-border arrangement between NI and the Republic of Ireland in the Good Friday Agreement.

Capt'n Midnight

Brexit: 'Welsh farmers too reliant on exporting to the EU'

With more than 90% of lamb exports destined for Europe, Liz Truss says "all the eggs are in one basket".

She said it showed the importance of opening up other markets around the world, something the UK government was "working hard" to achieve.

Yeah , inside the EU they didn't have to worry about tariffs. Outside they'll have to compete with the EU, New Zealand and Australia, Uruguay and Chile. And remember the Aussies and Kiwi's used to export the UK's part of the EU quota to other EU countries to get a better price so there won't be much love lost there.

The high value markets are the EU and the US, let's hope they get good deals.

China and the Middle East are lower value markets. And China can go nuts on food standards British beef was banned for 22 years. Japan banned it for 23 years.

Hermy

SNIP. No insults please.

Mr.Nice Guy

Kim Darroch, the former UK ambassador to the US who Trump had a public spat with, was on Newsnight the other evening and made some interesting comments on how Johnson should proceed with Biden. He reckons Johnson should make clear in his first call that he wants to do a deal with the EU.

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1324860653761388544

If Biden seeks a warm relationship with the EU and Johnson gets a rather cool response, then the Brexit benefits will look very thin indeed.

Interested to see what British opinion polls on the wisdom of Brexit will look like 4 to 5 months down the line.

CrabRevolution

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Kim Darroch, the former UK ambassador to the US who Trump had a public spat with, was on Newsnight the other evening and made some interesting comments on how Johnson should proceed with Biden. He reckons Johnson should make clear in his first call that he wants to do a deal with the EU.

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1324860653761388544

If Biden seeks a warm relationship with the EU and Johnson gets a rather cool response, then the Brexit benefits will look very thin indeed.

Interested to see what British opinion polls on the wisdom of Brexit will look like 4 to 5 months down the line.

You'd imagine that unlike Trump, who just saw brexit as a way to kick the EU so rowed in behind the UK, Biden is well aware of the state of play regarding brexit and knows that a commitment from Johnson means nothing. If Johnson claims to Biden that he wants a UK-EU deal, Biden should tell him to prove it.

Mr.Nice Guy

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Kim Darroch, the former UK ambassador to the US who Trump had a public spat with, was on Newsnight the other evening and made some interesting comments on how Johnson should proceed with Biden. He reckons Johnson should make clear in his first call that he wants to do a deal with the EU.

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1324860653761388544

If Biden seeks a warm relationship with the EU and Johnson gets a rather cool response, then the Brexit benefits will look very thin indeed.

Interested to see what British opinion polls on the wisdom of Brexit will look like 4 to 5 months down the line.

Don't be surprised if you see a lot of anti US sentiment surface over the next few months.

Patser

What is happening with Brexit now? I mean I know negotiations are still ongoing, and that they did (whether officially or not) take a bit of a lull this week as everyone watched the U.S. to see how the balance of power shifted.

But;

Earlier this year October was held up as THE deadline. Even beyond Johnson's self imposed 15th of October deadline, it was being said that a deal needed to be reached by the end of October, to allow time for it to be signed off by European Govts. The U.K. has literally made it illegal for themselves to request an extension, so as Capt Midnight says above there's about 30 working days to go.....in an ever so slightly distracting global pandemic.... before the transition period ends, and still they are negotiating slowly and steadily. I thought it would be called by now, Goodbye U.K., see you in the New Year to resume/restart trade negotiations with you completely out of EU.

How did the October deadline slip by so casually, or was it overstated and there is still time to rush everything through all levels of Government/Council etc?

Enzokk

Patser wrote: »

What is happening with Brexit now? I mean I know negotiations are still ongoing, and that they did (whether officially or not) take a bit of a lull this week as everyone watched the U.S. to see how the balance of power shifted.

But;

Earlier this year October was held up as THE deadline. Even beyond Johnson's self imposed 15th of October deadline, it was being said that a deal needed to be reached by the end of October, to allow time for it to be signed off by European Govts. The U.K. has literally made it illegal for themselves to request an extension, so as Capt Midnight says above there's about 30 working days to go.....in an ever so slightly distracting global pandemic.... before the transition period ends, and still they are negotiating slowly and steadily. I thought it would be called by now, Goodbye U.K., see you in the New Year to resume/restart trade negotiations with you completely out of EU.

How did the October deadline slip by so casually, or was it overstated and there is still time to rush everything through all levels of Government/Council etc?

Like with all deadlines related to Brexit, you had a few soft ones. I do believe however that around the 17th November is the next one as the EU Parliament will need time to study the deal and other EU countries will need time to ratify it as well. I am open to correction though. So we have about a week to go for the next deadline. I think if there is no progress over the next week then it will be no FTA deal.

rock22

I think the commission has created a huge problem fore the EU in allowing negotiations to continue. There is now insufficient time for each parliament to give sufficient debate to the deal. Which means that national politicians will be made hurry up' ratification. We were promised a full national debate before any deal could be ratified.

CelticRambler

Patser wrote: »

How did the October deadline slip by so casually, or was it overstated and there is still time to rush everything through all levels of Government/Council etc?

rock22 wrote: »

I think the commission has created a huge problem fore the EU in allowing negotiations to continue. There is now insufficient time for each parliament to give sufficient debate to the deal. Which means that national politicians will be made hurry up' ratification. We were promised a full national debate before any deal could be ratified.

Negotiations with a UK - which has already left the EU - will continue forever, just as they do between the EU and every other major trading partner. Some times they're quite active; other times they're effectively on pause; very rarely are they completely shut down; never is it a problem to continue talking to the other party.

The relevance of the dates and deadlines in the context of this negotiation is that the UK wants to go backwards, and they themselves have fixed certain points in time as their new D-Day experience. As each deadline passes without a ratifiable agreeent, it leaves them with fewer and fewer options for a seamless transition to their Brave New World.

From the EU's perspective, if there is any agreement to be made by the 31st December, it will be more important for that agreement to be so simple, transparent and non-contentious that there will be no debate necessary prior to ratification. As each day passes, more balls will need to be kicked into the long grass, leaving the UK with a harder and harder Brexit.

McGiver

ancapailldorcha wrote:

This deadline is enshrined in law and can't really be fudged as the Tories refused to request an extension.

The 31st December is the legal deadline but not the actual deadline.
The EU's deadline, hard one, is 14th Dec.

The deadline for the transition to end is 31 December, but the treaty must be ratified by the European Parliament by 14 December. In between the legal text must be translated into 23 official languages and legally "scrubbed" before going to a series of European Parliament committees.

The EP needs at least a month to properly scrutinise any deal, so the EU's hard deadline is 15th November or so. They've been very vocal that they must scrutinise it as the whole negotiation process had nothing to do with the EP, and the EP wasn't happy of course. Only after the deal is agreed they will be able to make any input. No way this will be and can be rushed through EP if the UK think they'll fudge something in the last minute.

Means - UK has 7-10 days to yield at most.

ancapailldorcha wrote:

I think the most likely outcome is a basic deal for goods with more negotiations happening. A poor outcome but it is what it is. A BRINO if one is to occur is years away.

No deal it is. Or the UK sign up to whatever EU has on offer now - which is quite a hard Brexit. BRINO isn't happening.

declanflynn

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Kim Darroch, the former UK ambassador to the US who Trump had a public spat with, was on Newsnight the other evening and made some interesting comments on how Johnson should proceed with Biden. He reckons Johnson should make clear in his first call that he wants to do a deal with the EU.

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1324860653761388544

If Biden seeks a warm relationship with the EU and Johnson gets a rather cool response, then the Brexit benefits will look very thin indeed.

Interested to see what British opinion polls on the wisdom of Brexit will look like 4 to 5 months down the line.

its all working out quite well for Ireland and working out quite badly for little england

declanflynn

McGiver wrote: »

The 31st December is the legal deadline but not the actual deadline.
The EU's deadline, hard one, is 14th Dec.



The EP needs at least a month to properly scrutinise any deal, so the EU's hard deadline is 15th November or so. They've been very vocal that they must scrutinise it as the whole negotiation process had nothing to do with the EP, and the EP wasn't happy of course. Only after the deal is agreed they will be able to make any input. No way this will be and can be rushed through EP if the UK think they'll fudge something in the last minute.

Means - UK has 7-10 days to yield at most.


No deal it is. Or the UK sign up to whatever EU has on offer now - which is quite a hard Brexit. BRINO isn't happening.

Its a great opportunity for the EU to turn the screw on the UK and finish them off

Seth Brundle

declanflynn wrote: »

Its a great opportunity for the EU to turn the screw on the UK and finish them off

The EU has no interest in doing that though.

fash

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Brexit: 'Welsh farmers too reliant on exporting to the EU'

The high value markets are the EU and the US, let's hope they get good deals.
.

Americans don't really eat lamb though.

Nody

Remember that great trade deal UK struck with Japan? Well some more details have come out...

10 of 9,444 products will enjoy lower taxes, experts say, a list of obscure items such as birds’ eggs, raw hides, fur skins, handbags and ultra-strong spirits of at least 90 per cent alcohol.

Crucially, none of the 10 have been sold to Japan for at least three years – which means the gain to British exporters is “zero”, the study has found.

But it gets better...

Ms Truss has also claimed a boost to trade with Japan worth £15.7bn over the next 15 years – but that is in comparison with no deal, not with the EU deal.

The government then acknowledged that 83 per cent of those gains would go to Japanese exporters, with only 17 per cent to the UK’s.

UK post Brexit; the land of gold and honey with UK being able to strike new great trade deals unleashing it's immense trading power!

Above quotes taken from this article.

trellheim

NEW: Boris Johnson says "there to be done" on Brexit with its broad outline already "pretty clear".

"I've always been a great enthusiast for a trade deal with our European friends and partners.”

He told
@vonderleyen
“We just need to get on and do it if we can.”

snort

needed a chuckle https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1325415268957495296

declanflynn

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The EU has no interest in doing that though.

I'd say half the people of Europe would like to see the brits suffer

declanflynn

Nody wrote: »

Remember that great trade deal UK struck with Japan? Well some more details have come out...
But it gets better...
UK post Brexit; the land of gold and honey with UK being able to strike new great trade deals unleashing it's immense trading power!

Above quotes taken from this article.

I think we all guessed as much

Capt'n Midnight

Should be grand as long as they don't do anything to undermine special relationship especially since they don't have a trade deal sorted.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/08/dominic-raab-joe-biden-no-deal-brexit

Boris Johnson has risked opening a rift with the US president-elect, Joe Biden, by insisting the internal markets bill that reneges on part of the EU withdrawal agreement would go ahead as planned.

Mr.Nice Guy

BBC's Nicholas Watt says his understanding is that the Biden team are to send strong words to the British government about the NI Internal Market Bill.

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1325414576603672580

The landscape now looks remarkably different now to the one of just a few years ago when the DUP held the balance of power in Westminster, while Trump was cheering on Brexit.

Enzokk

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Should be grand as long as they don't do anything to undermine special relationship especially since they don't have a trade deal sorted.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/08/dominic-raab-joe-biden-no-deal-brexit

You do wonder what is going on with the brain trust in the UK at the moment. What is Cummings thinking?

The story a few days ago that Goldman Sachs will be moving $60b in assets to Frankfurt. This was Cummings in 2016 on this prospect happening,

https://twitter.com/brexit_sham/status/1325383175498063872?s=20

This is supposed to be the mastermind of Brexit, he seems to be nothing more than another charlatan and by his evidence a fantasist.

serfboard

Enzokk wrote: »

The story a few days ago that Goldman Sachs will be moving $60b in assets to Frankfurt. This was Cummings in 2016 on this prospect happening,
https://twitter.com/brexit_sham/status/1325383175498063872?s=20

The hilarious thing about all these right-wingers is the amount of projection that they indulge in. "Everyone knows that Brussels is deeply corrupt" - well, Covid, and the cosy contracts won by crony capitalists have exposed just how deeply corrupt London is.

And Cummings, bemoaning Goldman Sachs influence in the EU, says, without a hint of irony "I've spoken to Goldman Sachs and they'll tell you privately ..."

reslfj

Seth Brundle wrote: »

declanflynn wrote: »

Its a great opportunity for the EU to turn the screw on the UK and finish them off

The EU has no interest in doing that though.

Until about 3-4 months ago I would have agreed. The EU will lose, but the UK economy will be devastated.

But as the current HMG and many Brexiteers continues to promote totally delusional arguments, some kind of actual hard 'UK look and feel' might - unfortunately - be much needed.

So 6, 12 or even 18 months without any deal and with no/few EU mitigation(s) can be much in the interest of the EU (and longer term beneficial for the UK too).

An empty stomach clears the brain wonderfully for almost all people

Lars


PS!
The UK auto industry can't survive 'no deal NTBs' on component import, rules of origin in general, and even less the 10% tariff on export of cars to the EU.
Fish export will be very hard hit by NTBs and with a high tariff on many species of fish.
Farm/animal export will simply have to be closed down without a fairly good deal.
Fish and farm are small money - but cars are not.

Tell me how

Enzokk wrote: »

This is supposed to be the mastermind of Brexit, he seems to be nothing more than another charlatan and by his evidence a fantasist.

I'm always fascinated by body language (leaving aside his accusations of blatant bribery) but his slouched manner, ill fitting shirt and head being held up by his hand makes him look and sound like a spoiled teenager feeding nonsense to a teacher who has no time for it.

And to think one of the Brexit rallying cry's was to remove unelected dictators from influencing UK governance, and this guy not only has Boris by the balls but isn't trying to hide that fact.

rugbyman

Question, only slightly off topic.

i am fairly well read on these matters and worked all my life in cross channel transport.

Only two specific items re tariffs under WTO rules have i read about.

One is a lamb from N.I. going south for Slaughter will incur a 'Levy' i.e a payment needing to be made of 40 pounds. So, assuming that the N.I.farmer has to pay the money,therefore he gets 40 pounds less than the value of the lamb.
If this is correct ,N.I. loses

To whom does he pay this money, and who benefits from it.
Perhaps the withdraal Agreement will sort this .,/has sorted this

The other scenario I have read of is a truckload of beef, or cheese going to the UK, England , a large amount of money will have to be paid by the exporter.

So, to whom will it be paid? since its bad news ,I assume the exporter pays it, Who gets the money?

This has me puzzled, if the answer is very simple i will get my coat....