Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Peregrinus

McGiver wrote: »

That's not the current state of play. HMG can table it again in the HoC and put the clauses back. They signalled, publicly, they intend to do so. If that happens the HoL wouldn't be able to remove the clauses again.

The EU know this. EU (and that includes Ireland) would be crazy if they believed another signature of the HMG on another treaty after the experience with the WA and the IMB. HMG simply cannot be trusted.

The UK signed the WA, reneged on the WA with the IMB, now they sign another treaty promising that they won't renege again on the WA and/or the new treaty - and anyone should seriously believe that?

The current UK regime have lost all credibility and any last remnants of EU trust they could have had.

Which is why signing an FTA doesn't depend just on UK government abandoning the offending clauses of the IM Bill.

It also depends on the UK agreeing to FTA terms which will include rapid and effective mechanisms for responding to future treaty breach by either party - e.g. the right to suspend aspects of the operation of the treaty until the offending party is in compliance again. If the EU didn't require such provisions to be included before the IM Bill shambles, they certainly will now.

Tell me how

Laura Keunnsberg claiming Cummings is on the way in the next 6 weeks (which was his plan all along).

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1327021528207286273

What is going on here?

Part of me is wondering, what is he going to go at next, part of me thinks that he might be running for the hills as the Brexit fallacy reveals itself.
One thing I know for sure is, I don't know anything for sure.

Enzokk

Interesting tweets that from Kuenssberg, having direct access to Cummings. She will be gone soon from the BBC to get a high profile job at the Tories or one of their think tanks or something like that and will earn 4 times her BBC salary, but continue the same work she is doing now.

Here is the story about a grace period for NI business,

Brexit grace period for NI retailers considered

The European Commission and British government are discussing a possible grace period to allow retailers in Northern Ireland time to adapt to the significant changes that will come into effect on 1 January under the Northern Ireland Protocol.

It is understood that a temporary adjustment period, if agreed by both sides, would mean that large volumes of food going to supermarkets and other retailers from Great Britain would not immediately be subject to extra costs and certain paperwork.

As Tony Connelly states in the story, if a grace period is agreed it would make it harder to resist a office for the EU in NI as well. The EU would be need a presence in NI to monitor the goods coming in from the UK and the UK have resisted giving them an office in NI at the moment. But if the EU agrees this grace period the UK would have to give in on this, otherwise why would the EU discuss it?

Lumen

I suspect Boris needs Cummings out to give himself freedom of movement. :pac:

I don't see the timing working though, if he holds out until Christmas.

Patser

Lumen wrote: »

I suspect Boris needs Cummings out to give himself freedom of movement. :pac:

I don't see the timing working though, if he holds out until Christmas.

Of course the big other rumour is that Johnson goes as well in January, either forced out or retires citing bad health since Covid. Either way the hard brexit deal they wanted or no deal, will be in place - so perfect time to get out before consequences hit.

ancapailldorcha

No insults please. A post has been deleted.

breatheme

Patser wrote: »

Of course the big other rumour is that Johnson goes as well in January, either forced out or retires citing bad health since Covid. Either way the hard brexit deal they wanted or no deal, will be in place - so perfect time to get out before consequences hit.

Ugh. This echoes of Cameron losing the Brexit the referendum and stepping down. Essentially setting the house and fire and leaving it to May, Johnson and company.


How many Conservative PMs need to step down before the British voter decides they're not a strong and stable party?

20silkcut

breatheme wrote: »

Ugh. This echoes of Cameron losing the Brexit the referendum and stepping down. Essentially setting the house and fire and leaving it to May, Johnson and company.


How many Conservative PMs need to step down before the British voter decides they're not a strong and stable party?

Very difficult to understand the British voter after the 2019 general election.

Oafley Jones

Lumen wrote: »

I suspect Boris needs Cummings out to give himself freedom of movement. :pac:

I don't see the timing working though, if he holds out until Christmas.

Cummings work is practically done now. So, I’m not surprised he’s off. How much does Boris really lean on him, and how will he cope without is the real question for me.

Joe_ Public

It's paywalled but there's a line in the FT today suggesting Cummings has already being earmarked to head a new science body being created along the lines of the US ARPA. Which has been the plan all along, as we've known. According to the science minister this role should go to an actual science expert, as opposed i guess to someone who merely acts like one, but when has that ever stopped them before? No deal is probably critical for cummings and i think he'd be happy enough to see johnson go if it meant gove in his place.

Nody

Patser wrote: »

Of course the big other rumour is that Johnson goes as well in January, either forced out or retires citing bad health since Covid. Either way the hard brexit deal they wanted or no deal, will be in place - so perfect time to get out before consequences hit.

I'd give him until March or April; let the chaos of Brexit settle in a bit before riding in as the savior of it all and release Boris to finally earn enough money again by writing BS in newspapers etc. (because only making 150k a year is not enough to cover his needs after all, why he could barely afford a single nanny!). Boris will be happy to be out (he's go the "be PM" tick done along with taking through Brexit as "achivement") to make money; the rest of cabinet looking to make fools of themselves become PM will get their chance for glory at the hot seat. Not that they will do any better than Boris but why let reality intrude at this stage when it's not done so the previous 4 years.

Professor Moriarty

Joe_ Public wrote: »

It's paywalled but there's a line in the FT today suggesting Cummings has already being earmarked to head a new science body being created along the lines of the US ARPA. Which has been the plan all along, as we've known. According to the science minister this role should go to an actual science expert, as opposed i guess to someone who merely acts like one, but when has that ever stopped them before? No deal is probably critical for cummings and i think he'd be happy enough to see johnson go if it meant gove in his place.

I think Sunak is the front runner currently. Gove simply doesn't have the gravitas to garner the support. He'd be even worse than Johnson, even more unprincipled.

banie01

That Cummings and the rest of the Brexit cheerleaders are being shuffled off stage before they actually have to face the reality of what they have wrought is bloody amazing.

The mantra of Borders, courts and finances is wearing more than a little thin.
I have yet to see what actual benefit Brexit brings other than jingoism.
The economic harm inflicted, is now being compounded by Pandemic and the grail of a US trade deal being skewered by Biden's stated commitment to the GFA and his opposing the internal markets bill.

The UK is foundering, lack of leadership coupled with an ever reducing pool of options is becoming very evident.
That there is a Tory supermajority at a time of National crisis is something no opposing politician should ever let be forgotten.
They have all the power and are only making ever poorer decisions.

The efforts of the Good Law project in exposing the cronyism and pocket lining should not be forgotten either.

listermint

banie01 wrote: »

That Cummings and the rest of the Brexit cheerleaders are being shuffled off stage before they actually have to face the reality of what they have wrought is bloody amazing.

The mantra of Borders, courts and finances is wearing more than a little thin.
I have yet to see what actual benefit Brexit brings other than jingoism.
The economic harm inflicted, is now being compounded by Pandemic and the grail of a US trade deal being skewered by Biden's stated commitment to the GFA and his opposing the internal markets bill.

The UK is foundering, lack of leadership coupled with an ever reducing pool of options is becoming very evident.
That there is a Tory supermajority at a time of National crisis is something no opposing politician should ever let be forgotten.
They have all the power and are only making ever poorer decisions.

The efforts of the Good Law project in exposing the cronyism and pocket lining should not be forgotten either.

being shuffled....

They are exiting stage left, as was their plan from the start

Joe_ Public

The irony of cummings heading up any critical science role is grim given that it is one field that has clearly shown negative effects since the referendum and will suffer from tougher immigration laws and lack of eu funding. Even with a deal, the eu will, with justification, extract a high price for the uk to continue to participate in its research programmes as an associate member. If they fully withdraw, then a new uk body would be sitting on a potential annual funding war chest of billions of pounds and no doubt that is what cummings has one of his beady eyes on.

hirondelle

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think Sunak is the front runner currently. Gove simply doesn't have the gravitas to garner the support. He'd be even worse than Johnson, even more unprincipled.

And there is a fierce smell of Trump off Gove that would further cool the US ardour for the "special relationship" to be rekindled.

Brussels Sprout

It's quite odd that Cummings and Johnson went through that whole song and dance routine to keep Cummings in his job 6 months ago only for him to walk now with nothing much to show for the time in between.

ancapailldorcha

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

It's quite odd that Cummings and Johnson went through that whole song and dance routine to keep Cummings in his job 6 months ago only for him to walk now with nothing much to show for the time in between.

I'll believe Cummings is leaving when it actually happens. That said, it's probable that he's realised that his plan to just create innovation out of nothing after leading a xenophobic campaign for Brexit is unworkable which is something anyone would have known in 2016. As for Johnson, he's probably just realised that he'll be remembered more like Chamberlain than Churchill and that's with a fair bit of charity.

Panrich

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

It's quite odd that Cummings and Johnson went through that whole song and dance routine to keep Cummings in his job 6 months ago only for him to walk now with nothing much to show for the time in between.

Cummings needed those extra six months to ensure that his fingerprints remained all over the EU negotiations. Now though that the endgame has arrived and there is literally no chance of a close relationship with the EU moving forward, he can now be the first rat (well the second) off the sinking ship.

He will not be around now to be accountable for all the damage he has inflicted on the country.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'll believe Cummings is leaving when it actually happens. That said, it's probable that he's realised that his plan to just create innovation out of nothing after leading a xenophobic campaign for Brexit is unworkable which is something anyone would have known in 2016. As for Johnson, he's probably just realised that he'll be remembered more like Chamberlain than Churchill and that's with a fair bit of charity.

He's gone by Christmas. Sky News reported it as fact last night yet no rebuttal from No. 10.

Chamberlain had principles. Johnson follows the Groucho Marx maxim: "Those are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others."

Infini

listermint wrote: »

being shuffled....

They are exiting stage left, as was their plan from the start

Rats abandoning the sinking ship. It's so obvious they've felt they've gotten what they wanted and are now bailing out to other's to go down with the mess they intentionaly created.

Lumen

I'm subscribed to Telegraph WhatsApp messages to keep me adrenally stimulated.

Possibly not helpful Phil.



Article is paywalled (no chance of me paying) so I won't link.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think Sunak is the front runner currently. Gove simply doesn't have the gravitas to garner the support. He'd be even worse than Johnson, even more unprincipled.

I think Sunak will be nothing but a disappointment. He's a hardcore Brexiteer and right winger, just couched in more moderate language.

ancapailldorcha

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

So lets say its 2030 you are a bright scientist with a background from lets say Oxford who just came up with a novel way of stopping a nasty strain of viruses from getting a foothold in humans and/or farm animals.

Great stuff, your idea and technology you (and maybe your team) worked on could save economies billions or more
But wait your UK patent holds little weight in Europe and rest of World,
If you want to make a ton of money of your invention your best bet is leaving for Europe or US (or hell maybe even China) you might even to have an Irish grandparent so you could get Irish citizenship and become an EU citizen in process.

Cummings could pour billions into science and tech (tho most likely it be a way to launder public money to his buddies) and all it accomplish would leave along with the best and brightest for greener shores.

When you say background, presumably that means someone who's done their PhD or Postdoc at Oxford. For starters, I work in a research facility in London and there's been a steady trickle of talent from the UK to Europe. It's not a flood or anything but highly qualified Europeans who make up the bulk of the workforce here. Go onto the list of staff for any research department of a top tier University like UCL, ICL, Oxford or Cambridge and see how many Anglo-Saxon names you happen across. Many EU citizens might want to stay but I can't see all that many wanting to come over post Brexit. I've heard ads on my podcasts with a cheery though slightly threatening vibe. The same people who speak English can just as easily secure employment in excellent research Universities like EMBO in Heidelberg, the Max Planck institute, Leiden, etc... Why pick a country with a hostile environment policy and a wasteful, bureaucratic immigration system where previously none existed?

Onto your patent, that may or not be an issue view through its own prism. The EPO is not part of the EU and there are attorneys in the UK who can help clients secure patents for the European market.

The bigger issue for me is finding talented staff. Even if Sterling holds well, you still need highly skilled people to design, test and produce your vaccine. You also need techs to maintain the equipment, IP staff, marketing, etc. The UK still has a lot to offer but Brexit is a huge dent to the advantages it currently enjoys.

And all this is before the fact that the Conservatives adore handing mountains of taxpayer cash to unaccountable private entities, friends and contractors. If proximity to senior Conservative MP's and not talent is the selection criteria as opposed to talent or a business plan then I can't see whatever the heck Cummings' dream is coming to fruition. We're still in a pandemic which has already taken a wrecking ball to this so even the money being available is a huge "if".

Enzokk

Strazdas wrote: »

I think Sunak will be nothing but a disappointment. He's a hardcore Brexiteer and right winger, just couched in more moderate language.

He has been perceived as competent compared to the other cabinet members out there and he was the nice guy initially when he was handing out money for everyone to cope initially as well. His decisions subsequently has, as you point out, lifted the veil on him and there is more than enough for Labour to attack him on. How many people have been laid off because he only decided very late to extend the Covid furlough scheme? I think that shows he is not as he is perceived.

Lemming

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Onto your patent, that may or not be an issue view through its own prism. The EPO is not part of the EU and there are attorneys in the UK who can help clients secure patents for the European market.

I seem to recall ambro25 commenting regarding EPO access for British-based legal folk being affected by an immediate NTB and that you would in effect need to seek non-British based legal representation to file at the EPO. I may have recalled the details wrong and the above is without me going searching back through several threads so I stand open to correction.

ancapailldorcha

Lemming wrote: »

I seem to recall ambro25 commenting regarding EPO access for British legal folk being affected by an immediate NTB and that you would in effect need to seek non-British based legal representation to file at the EPO. I may have recalled the details wrong and the above is without me going searching back through several threads so I stand open to correction.

I was reading a career guide about the profession recently and it mentioned the EPO was outside the EU though the brochure is from 2017 or 2018. It's not old but it could probably do with some updating regarding Brexit if so.

trellheim

I think Sunak will be nothing but a disappointment. He's a hardcore Brexiteer and right winger, just couched in more moderate language.

remember Sajid Javid ( his predecessor) was forced out because he wanted his advisers reporting directly to him ( as had always been the case ) rather than Cummings. Rishi Sunak said "yep no problem I can roll over to that".

trellheim

Sam Coates is reporting that Cummings is gone for good. No other news but I wonder where he's off to now

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1327299401987940352

Laura Kuenssberg has it as well

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1327299016300896257

ath262

breaking news on BBC Cummings to leave No. 10 with immediate effect

from Laura Kuenssberg, no other details as yet

updated from LK twitter :

..Lee Cain also now out from today...
..There was a conversation btw the 2 of them and the PM at lunchtime today where it was decided after upset in the team and difficult week, best to go immediately