Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Hermy

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's a very sensible proposition that might circumvent the Taking Back Control backlash. However, I think the ERG (they haven't gone away you know) and other Brexiteer MPs are so emboldened now that they will become apoplectic at any hint of compromise. Johnson's Cummings' Brexit narrative and stance means that the Tories have painted themselves into a hard Brexit corner. IDS, Francois, Baker and their chums won't accept anything less and will use Johnson's rhetoric over the past 12 months to hold him to account.

This is kinda why I asked my question above about Labour possibly coming to power in '24. The UK is in such a log jam right now. People are still clamouring for Brexit regardless of how detrimental it is for their welfare and I'd imagine they'll be more than clamouring at any hint of a reversal of Brexit.

Professor Moriarty

Hermy wrote: »

This is kinda why I asked my question above about Labour possibly coming to power in '24. The UK is in such a log jam right now. People are still clamouring for Brexit regardless of how detrimental it is for their welfare and I'd imagine they'll be more than clamouring at any hint of a reversal of Brexit.

Though I'd love to see the Tories kicked out, personally, I think it's impossible to predict what will happen in 2024. The next 4 years will bring profound change not seen since WW2. Severe economic damage, splintering of UK unity, possible violence in NI, the further growth of populism etc. But look, the Breiteers might be right. A united UK will unleash its potential as a global economic power thus bringing prosperity and happiness for each and every citizen while dominating world politics with its inordinate influence due to its glorious English British superiority.

Hermy

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Though I'd love to see the Tories kicked out, personally, I think it's impossible to predict what will happen in 2024.

I'm not trying to predict the election outcome - just musing over how the UK comes back from the brink.
Whereas Biden ousting Trump may bring America back to some sort of normalcy Labour winning is surely to be the most poisoned of poisoned chalices.

ancapailldorcha

Hermy wrote: »

I'm not trying to predict the election outcome - just musing over how the UK comes back from the brink.
Whereas Biden ousting Trump may bring America back to some sort of normalcy Labour winning is surely to be the most poisoned of poisoned chalices.

I think whether or not it can by 2030 will be indicated by what sort of agreement they reach with the EU at the end of the year. A Biden presidency would help IMO as he'll want to restore the US' position as leader of the international order. Going full isolationist might impress Trump but even he'll be looking to export huge quantities of American food into the UK while carving up the NHS. Biden will likely prioritise a deal with the EU. A deal with the UK won't really be top of their list for a while I would think.

fash

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's a very sensible proposition that might circumvent the Taking Back Control backlash. However, I think the ERG (they haven't gone away you know) and other Brexiteer MPs are so emboldened now that they will become apoplectic at any hint of compromise. Johnson's Cummings' Brexit narrative and stance means that the Tories have painted themselves into a hard Brexit corner. IDS, Francois, Baker and their chums won't accept anything less and will use Johnson's rhetoric over the past 12 months to hold him to account.

A further issue I think is the internal lack of consensus in the UK as to their relationship with the EU. Supposing Labour does get in to power in 2024 and wants a closer relationship, how long with that last if the Tories want a more distant relationship? Does the relationship change every couple of years between a close and distant relationship?

CelticRambler

Hermy wrote: »

I'm not trying to predict the election outcome - just musing over how the UK comes back from the brink.
Whereas Biden ousting Trump may bring America back to some sort of normalcy Labour winning is surely to be the most poisoned of poisoned chalices.

2024 is way too early for any meaningful change to have settled into the overall UK mindset, and I cannot foresee any situation where the UK as it currently exists will re-join the EU. Everything that I've read and heard indicates to me that NI and Scotland will be detached from the Kingdom before there's any serious move to formally re-align England&Wales with the EU, and it might well be the Welsh who #TakeBackControl and drive a movement to realign/rejoin if they see their Celtic cousins doing "okay-ish", "quite well" or even "spectacularly" once freed from yoke of English politics.

Peregrinus

fash wrote: »

A further issue I think is the internal lack of consensus in the UK as to their relationship with the EU. Supposing Labour does get in to power in 2024 and wants a closer relationship, how long with that last if the Tories want a more distant relationship? Does the relationship change every couple of years between a close and distant relationship?

I think the working assumption is that, after people have experienced the reality of the very distant relationship that the current junta is leadin them into, the great majority will want a closer relationship and the political dispute will be not whether there should be a closer relationship but rather (a) how much closer it should be, and (b) how to get there.

This will take a bit of time. There will be a hard core of ERG fanatics who want the most distant possible relationship and who will honk endlessly about how the foreseeable, predicted, inevitable consequences of having a distant relationship are not the responsiblity of the people who advocated and schemed for the most distant possible relationship but are Someone Else's Fault. However I think in time this group will be relagated to the political fringes where they should have been kept all along.

But I say "in time" advisedly. There's a more significant group who were seduced into swallowing the Brexit Kool-Aid and who need to come to terms with the fact that, yes, they did swallow the Kool-Aid and it was a terrible mistake. The more you have sacrificed for the cause, and the more you have sacrificed others for the cause, the harder it is to admit that the cause was a fraud and that you were a mug to fall for it. So this takes time.

CelticRambler

Another Trade Deal milestone missed:

Germany has scrapped plans to discuss Brexit at a high-level diplomatic meeting next week because there has not been “any tangible progress” in talks, the Guardian has learned, as Brussels laments a “completely wasted” summer.

I like the naïveté on show in this response from the British side -

British officials hit back, accusing the EU of slowing progress by insisting that all difficult issues had to be resolved in parallel. [...]

“We are also faced with the EU’s frustrating insistence on parallelism, meaning that they will not progress areas apart from these ‘difficult’ ones until we have moved towards their position on them. That’s a sure way to hold up the negotiations.

The easiest trade deal in history has some difficult issues that need to be resolved before the cherries can be picked. Whodathunkit?

Enzokk

Tony Abbott has been appointed as a adviser to the DIT and Liz Truss.

Abbott's new British trade role called into question as gig exposes European jaunt

British Labour is stepping up its opposition to the appointment of former Australian prime minister Tony Abbott as an adviser to the British Board of Trade and is demanding UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson explain the details of the plum job.

In Australia, Abbott's critics have called on him to be stripped of his $300,000-a-year parliamentary pension while he is working for a foreign government that is negotiating a trade deal with Australia.

Seems curious that he would be paid a lot of money to try and screw over the country paying that money. Then again he is a believer of Brexit by all accounts so he fits right in. His facts about trade is just weird as well,

https://twitter.com/LeaveHQ/status/1298421439327088641?s=20

Imagine having David Davis and Tony Abbott on the same side, and Grayling waiting behind them to offer his advice as well.

Sam Russell

Enzokk wrote: »

Tony Abbott has been appointed as a adviser to the DIT and Liz Truss.

Abbott's new British trade role called into question as gig exposes European jaunt



Seems curious that he would be paid a lot of money to try and screw over the country paying that money. Then again he is a believer of Brexit by all accounts so he fits right in. His facts about trade is just weird as well,

https://twitter.com/LeaveHQ/status/1298421439327088641?s=20

Imagine having David Davis and Tony Abbott on the same side, and Grayling waiting behind them to offer his advice as well.

I think he needs to read the latest report from Michel Barnier. 'level playing field and fisheries - agree those first'.

They live in a fantasy bubble.

Charles Babbage

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/brexit-brings-the-end-of-an-era-for-uk-sellers-on-amazon/



Effectively, this will reduce a UK seller’s possible customer base from 446 million consumers to just 66 million.

Sloppy language as usual, it should say Britain since of course a NI seller can sell to 446 million.

reslfj

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/brexit-brings-the-end-of-an-era-for-uk-sellers-on-amazon/

Changes coming to Amazon’s European fulfilment services when the Brexit transition period ends on 31 December will have a significant impact on many UK and EU sellers. Effectively, this will reduce a UK seller’s possible customer base from 446 million consumers to just 66 million.

this will reduce a UK seller’s possible customer base from 510 million consumers to just 66 million.

The 510 was actually 513.4 million (2019) and is now reduced to 446 million in EU27.

The warehouse location Amazon plan to use for delivery to NI will be interesting to know, I think.

Lars

reslfj

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Sloppy language as usual, it should say Britain since of course a NI seller can sell to 446 million.

Why not ?

Goods in NI are inside the SM, unless the seller has claimed a refund for the EU tariffs imposed at the Irish Sea border.

Within a short time NI goods will be mostly EU regulated - imho.

Lars

Peregrinus

It’s not that straightforward. It’s up to Amazon whether it will allow sellers based in NI to participate in its European fulfilment systems. Amazon may not want to be responsible, or possibly responsible, for policing whether the goods it handles on behalf of NI sellers have been the subject of a tariff refund claim.

I don’t know if we know yet what Amazon is going to do about this.

serfboard

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://www.cityam.com/no-deal-brexit-threat-to-digital-economy/

That's not a great article.

There’s a great deal of economic value and foreign direct investment to be gained from converting empty office buildings into data centres

Really? I wouldn't have thought so.

In terms of cloud hosting it could even, in theory, see American SaaS firms like Salesforce deciding that it’s not worth keeping operations in the EU and selling out to local operators such as SAP — in a mirror of the proposal for ByteDance to sell the US arm of TikTok to Microsoft.

Speculation. And where's the loss?

The digital economy accounts for 7.7 per cent of the UK’s GDP
...
Processing data from outside the UK accounts for perhaps one third of that figure. If we lose just one half of the value of data processing, that amounts to around 1.5 per cent of GDP.

7.7 / 3 / 2 = 1.28 not 1.5. OK, arguing over 0.2% of GDP, but the author is the one presenting the numbers, and the numbers are easily checkable.

I'm not saying that there will be no loss, BTW. But mentioning data centres, which emply a tiny number of people, reduces the credibility of the overall point. And I'd like to know what is meant by "data processing"? Surely that's done by software - which could still be written in Dover, even if it's hosted on a data centre in Calais.

volchitsa

reslfj wrote: »

Why not ?

Goods in NI are inside the SM, unless the seller has claimed a refund for the EU tariffs imposed at the Irish Sea border.

Within a short time NI goods will be mostly EU regulated - imho.

Lars

They already are. The question is whether they will choose to keep to EU regs or to compete with American bleach-cleaned chicken in GB.

reslfj

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/08/13/paradox-of-victimhood-no-form-of-brexit-will-ever-satisfy-brexit-ultras/

Good overview of Brexit up to now, no matter what is done brexiters will never be happy. They are fundamentally incapable of getting on with it, whatever it is. Their positions continue to shift more and more to the extreme.

If the UK doesn't accept a compromise (will necessarily be close to current EU text) within the next 2-3 weeks, it will likely be better from 'day one' to stop all EU27 mitigating measures.

Let the UK 'look and feel' the full 3. country blow. Be that over the cliff or down Boris' deep, wet, muddy, cold, and food-less ditch ?

The EU is likely better off with clear lines immediately. It will also be much easier for the EU27 to ask all its businesses to reroute every company supply chains now involving GB if possible to the SM or alternatively via the EU's 70+ FTAs. With a firm signal say by Octber 1. it will be possible to reroute very much trade before 2021.

Lars

serfboard

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/08/13/paradox-of-victimhood-no-form-of-brexit-will-ever-satisfy-brexit-ultras/

That is an excellent article. Reminds me of Fintan O'Toole's book trying to explain the psychology behind Brexit.

It also suggests to me that the whole Brexit project is going to collapse under the weight of its impossible-to-reconcile demands.

It's no wonder Michel Barnier says that the talks are going backwards ...

serfboard

reslfj wrote: »

The EU is likely better off with clear lines immediately. It will also be much easier for the EU27 to ask all its businesses to reroute every company supply chains now involving GB if possible to the SM or alternatively via the EU's 70+ FTAs. With a firm signal say by Octber 1. it will be possible to reroute very much trade before 2021.

Yeah - kind of what we've been saying earlier in the thread.

The EU27 should just say: Look, we can't be hanging around waiting for the Brits to decide something only to have them change their minds. We've got to mind our own house and treat the UK, in as far as possible, as if it doesn't exist, and set up new supply lines accordingly.

Sam Russell

serfboard wrote: »

[Originally Posted by reslfj View Post
The EU is likely better off with clear lines immediately. It will also be much easier for the EU27 to ask all its businesses to reroute every company supply chains now involving GB if possible to the SM or alternatively via the EU's 70+ FTAs. With a firm signal say by Octber 1. it will be possible to reroute very much trade before 2021.

Yeah - kind of what we've been saying earlier in the thread.

The EU27 should just say: Look, we can't be hanging around waiting for the Brits to decide something only to have them change their minds. We've got to mind our own house and treat the UK, in as far as possible, as if it doesn't exist, and set up new supply lines accordingly.

Well, that would be fine, but it puts us in a very difficult position. We would need huge assistance from the EU, plus we would be subject to a huge and vicious backlash from the UK.

The current Home Secretary (before she had that post) threatened to starve us if we did not give way on the backstop. Will she and her like be any less vitriolic under such a regime?

It will be the Berlin blockade all over again.

Pablo Escobar

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, that would be fine, but it puts us in a very difficult position. We would need huge assistance from the EU, plus we would be subject to a huge and vicious backlash from the UK.

The current Home Secretary (before she had that post) threatened to starve us if we did not give way on the backstop. Will she and her like be any less vitriolic under such a regime?

It will be the Berlin blockade all over again.

They're not going to starve a country that produces enough food to feed itself 8/9 times over. Plus, they are a net importer of food themselves.

I get the point though, but I do think we need (and have been btw) to diversify away from them further. Ironically enough, the idea of 'Global Britain' has forced us to open our eyes to the rest of the world. For all the hassle that it will likely cause us, it'll be a much easier fix for us than them. We can't control it either so need to take affirmative action to limit the blow, but that brings opportunities in many ways.

CelticRambler

Sam Russell wrote: »

we would be subject to a huge and vicious backlash from the UK.

The current Home Secretary (before she had that post) threatened to starve us if we did not give way on the backstop. Will she and her like be any less vitriolic under such a regime?

It will be the Berlin blockade all over again.

Were the UK to indulge in such bully-boy tactics, the rest of the world (with the possible exception of re-elected Trump's USA) would treat them as a pariah state. And in the meantime, there'd be no effective way to blockade Ireland - we have our own sea- and airports, our own shipping and airlines, our own global network of suppliers and customers. Oh, and 26 friendly nations in our club, each of which would be only too happy to arrange things so as to pick up dead and dying businesses fleeing the UK.

serfboard

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, that would be fine, but it puts us in a very difficult position. We would need huge assistance from the EU, plus we would be subject to a huge and vicious backlash from the UK.

The current Home Secretary (before she had that post) threatened to starve us if we did not give way on the backstop. Will she and her like be any less vitriolic under such a regime?

It will be the Berlin blockade all over again.

I'm not advocating going as far as you think I am:

serfboard wrote: »

We've got to ... treat the UK, in as far as possible, as if it doesn't exist, and set up new supply lines accordingly.

We can do this in lots of quiet ways, with Enterprise Ireland and the IDA adopting a strategy of weaning Irish companies away from the UK market, without making a big song and dance about it.

As a nation, we really ought to be in discreet disaster planning mode.

Perhaps we are, and it's so discreet, that the general public don't know about it! I'd like to think that was the case.

trellheim

Remind me where we are with European Arrest Warrant and all the access to crime databases, isnt that all set to stop for the UK currently after transition

sandbelter

serfboard wrote: »

As a nation, we really ought to be in discreet disaster planning mode.

Judging by the unfolding drama at Aer Lingus' I'm not confident Ireland is doing anything....let alone constructive....judging by the paralysis Ireland has demonstrated towards the aviation sector due to it's Covid focus.

It seems the "shoe has to drop" for it get politicians or the medias attention span back on Brexit.

listermint

sandbelter wrote: »

Judging by the unfolding drama at Aer Lingus' I'm not confident Ireland is doing anything....let alone constructive....judging by the paralysis Ireland has demonstrated towards the aviation sector due to it's Covid focus.

It seems the "shoe has to drop" for it get politicians or the medias attention span back on Brexit.

The Airline sector internationally is in crisis. That is not Ireland related. You cannot equate an airlines current issues due to a global pandemic on the brexit preparations of this island. Absolute bizarre equivalence.

CelticRambler

sandbelter wrote: »

Judging by the unfolding drama at Aer Lingus' I'm not confident Ireland is doing anything ...

It seems the "shoe has to drop" for it get politicians or the medias attention span back on Brexit.

Private company sold itself to (what became) non-EU-based overlords, just before the public realised flying around the world is a Bad Idea, and is now facing a period of turbulence. How is that the fault of Irish politicians? In fact, how is that different to any other "crisis" that's affected the airline industry as a whole every few years for the last half a century?

Let's have a better example before you blame the politicians.

sandbelter

CelticRambler wrote: »

Private company sold itself to (what became) non-EU-based overlords, just before the public realised flying around the world is a Bad Idea, and is now facing a period of turbulence. How is that the fault of Irish politicians? In fact, how is that different to any other "crisis" that's affected the airline industry as a whole every few years for the last half a century?

Let's have a better example before you blame the politicians.

As this is a Brexit thread, I don't want to side track it into Aer Lingus, there is a very good thread on how the government's mishandling of the green listings, etc, etc right here on boards.ie. If your interested in reading here it is: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058076485&page=57

Why is Aer Lingus drama relevant for Brexit? It's the pattern avoidance of decision making that needs to be pointed out. I could point out to reports such as task force report being sat on since July 7, testing at European airports not being discussed for here. It not that it's a one off that concerns me, every government has their "off" days, but this has become a pattern, and this does concern me. Yes Aer lingus drama is unfolding rapidly but then so will Brexit post Jan 1st. Event like these shows the mettle of a government, but instead the government is acting like deer stuck in headlights.

I think we all sense the economic shock that will hit in January (I for one think the shock of the UK leaving is price worth paying in the longer term, in a sense we are no longer "an island behind an island"). But we need to manage it or it will manage us and we need to demonstrate political and economic agility to grasp the opportunities Brexit brings, but I stand by my point we do need to see something better than waiting for the shoe to drop.

CelticRambler

sandbelter wrote: »

As this is a Brexit thread, I don't want to side track it into Aer Lingus, there is a very good thread on how the government's mishandling of the green listings, etc, etc right here on boards.ie.

Governments have to work with the information that's available to them. It's not the Irish government's fault if the French government's territorial reform of 2014 means that, administratively, areas in France with zero cases per 100k are lumped in with major urban centres having 50cases/100k; nor that Ryanair made commercial decision a few years ago to no longer fly to the provincial airports situated in these virus-free zones, but instead serve the hottest of hotspots.

What it does show, though, is that governments across the EU now have far more important things to worry about than what the Brits are doing. So if the Brits don't want to make a deal, then fine: off with them.

sandbelter wrote: »

I think we all sense the economic shock that will hit in January ... But we need to manage it or it will manage us and we need to demonstrate political and economic agility to grasp the opportunities Brexit brings, but I stand by my point we do need to see something better than waiting for the shoe to drop.

The Irish - businesses and citizens - have had four years to demonstrate their own economic agility. The government led by example five years ago, by making sure that Ireland's unique circumstances (i.e. "the North") were on the table from the very beginning. Let that sink in for a minute: before the result was known, the Irish government was demonstrating its political (diplomatic) agility.

There comes a point when the politicians can't do any more for the people, if the people won't get up off their ar5es and do their bit.

Peregrinus

CelticRambler wrote: »

The Irish - businesses and citizens - have had four years to demonstrate their own economic agility. The government led by example five years ago, by making sure that Ireland's unique circumstances (i.e. "the North") were on the table from the very beginning. Let that sink in for a minute: before the result was known, the Irish government was demonstrating its political (diplomatic) agility.

There comes a point when the politicians can't do any more for the people, if the people won't get up off their ar5es and do their bit.

I think this oversimplifies a bit. The fact is that if the UK exits transition without a trade deal this is going to cause a major economic impact in Ireland. There is nothing that Irish businesses or the Irish government can do to avert this, but they can do contingency planning for it. And they both need to.

Since the Irish government has been very on-the-ball in its approach to Brexit right from the get-go, I would be cautiously optimistic that they have identified the risk, and have done their planning. Businesses, perhaps less so, since by the time it became clear that the British government might really be stupid enough and wicked enough to contemplate no-FTA end-of-transition, they were mired in the CV19 pandemic, and their attention and resources were fully occupied with that. Many will be crossing their fingers and hoping that, when push comes to shove, the British government is not as stupid and wicked as it pretends to be.

Plannign won't work miracles. No amount of planning can change the fact that, if the landbridge route to EU markets is restricted or closed, alternative sea routes will not be as quick, and therefore can't be an adequate replacement for transporting, e.g, fresh produce. So, even with the best planning, it's going to be rough.