Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Brussels Sprout

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1327294993292267521


great shot

trellheim

well there's always reporters and cameramen at that sport in fairness, but yes

Leroy42

It always strikes me as weird that LauraK, despite her almost breathless tales of inside sources, very rarely, if ever, actually gets to break a story.

Most of her comments, and it was particularly the case yesterday, are about how she heard from a source that this or that will happen. ANd then withing days she gets back on with Breaking News, that everybody else can see at the same time.

Surely she must be frustrated that despite her continued adherence to the government lines (at the very least she takes a very devil's advocate approach) she rarely actually gets the goods.

ath262

ath262 wrote: »

....was decided after upset in the team and difficult week, best to go immediately

So after all the difficulties with Covid and Brexit Negotiations, the downfall of these two down was triggered by an internal squabble about who reports to who

Joe_ Public

I'd wager most tory mps hate him and see him as a liability anyway so this might actually work well for johnson. Just begs the question, as posed earlier, why is it happening only now.

Enzokk

Cummings sure liked the drama of it all. He could have left via a side or back entrance and avoided the photo's. But he likes the drama and he liked being the brains behind Vote Leave and Johnson as well.

Also, I suspect he is very much a true believer in Brexit so with him gone I see no reason for Johnson not to get that deal with the EU.

Spanish Eyes

I think with my cynical eye that it was all change with the Trump demise, and their departure was carefully choreographed. But sure what do I know.

No point carrying on with a sensible Prez who is not in favour of a GFA resistant Brexit now and a hard road to get a Trade Agreement with US under Biden if they are naughty. Boris might be next. But there is always Carrie in the wings. But I don't believe much about her involvement, maybe at a high level her alleged influence was part of the pact to get the unwashed talking about her as a powerful consort.

Anyway, Two gone. What's the plan now?

Headshot

Can I just say it's ****ing great to see the back of Cummings, a really nasty piece of work however BJ should of sacked him after Cummings Gate

Leroy42

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I'd wager most tory mps hate him and see him as a liability anyway so this might actually work well for johnson. Just begs the question, as posed earlier, why is it happening only now.

Johnson used up a huge amount of public goodwill and confidence by backing Cummings to the hilt over Banard Castle, Ministers were forced to back him on the airwaves.

And for just a few extra months. A few extra months where the government has continued to be besieged by bad press, falling polling numbers and an increasing lack of confidence in both Johnson and the government.

And then, only 24 hours after saying he would stay until the end of the year, he walks out today?

ambro25

Lemming wrote: »

I seem to recall ambro25 commenting regarding EPO access for British-based legal folk being affected by an immediate NTB and that you would in effect need to seek non-British based legal representation to file at the EPO. I may have recalled the details wrong and the above is without me going searching back through several threads so I stand open to correction.

The immediate NTB is in respect of access to the EUIPO (EUropean Intellectual Property Office) which administers european trade marks and european designs. These are truly 'european' rights (in the 'EU' communautary sense).

There will be no change in respect of access to the EPO (European Patent Office), becase that exists out of the European Patent Convention, which is an international treaty that has nothing to do with the EU.

So UK patent attorneys will still be able to file and prosecute european patents, but UK trademark attorneys and solictors and self-representing applicants will not be able to seek european trademarks and designs from 01 January.

Subject to how each EU27 member state administers the recognition of professional qualifications of 3rd party countries, some/most/all UK patent attorneys and UK trademark attorneys practicing in the EU27 under a european-based professional recognition, may lose their entitlement to practice as well.

Joe_ Public

Leroy42 wrote: »

Johnson used up a huge amount of public goodwill and confidence by backing Cummings to the hilt over Banard Castle, Ministers were forced to back him on the airwaves.

And for just a few extra months. A few extra months where the government has continued to be besieged by bad press, falling polling numbers and an increasing lack of confidence in both Johnson and the government.

And then, only 24 hours after saying he would stay until the end of the year, he walks out today?

Yeah, just listened to a tory mp on rte drivetime saying good riddance, this is going to be a hugely popular move on many sides but it's far too late for johnson to get any credit from it. Not even clear he forced it to begin with. What hold cummings had over him still not entirely clear i think, always saw cummings as being closer to gove, if he's actually close to anyone. With johnson, it was just an arrangement of convenience but johnson just doesn't seem to have had the political nous to know when that convenience became a liability which was well before durham.

Spanish Eyes

I note from reports that Cummings exited no.10 via the Front Door in front of the press pack. Theatricals at the end, hiding all along.

He could have exited quietly through many other anyonymous exits around no 10, but no. Two fingers.

But as long as his departure and that of the other fella whose names escapes me works for a softer Brexit and a deal, I couldn't care less about these people.

Tell me how

trellheim wrote: »

Sam Coates is reporting that Cummings is gone for good. No other news but I wonder where he's off to now

Exactly.

Expect to see him linked with some conservative style focus groups/think tanks/research bodies or as a guest on some influential podcasts talking about what society needs next.

Human nature being what it is, 70M people have already requested more of the same in their President, and we saw what happened in the last UK General Election.

There'll be plenty to listen to Cummings for a while yet.

Junkyard Tom

There's an element of theatre to DC's exit from the front door, he would well know that will make all the front pages tomorrow. If I wanted to remain involved in shaping policy surreptitiously, that front door exit is exactly how I'd play it.

Just a thought.

Tell me how

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

There's an element of theatre to DC's exit from the front door, he would well know that will make all the front pages tomorrow. If I wanted to remain involved in shaping policy surreptitiously that front door exit is exactly how I'd play it.

Just a thought.

Laura has reported that he is going to be working from home until mid-December....
This walk out the door was for show. I expect the box was empty.

Saw a funny tweet that said 'Imagine Johnson not getting rid of him over Barnard Castle, but getting rid of him to keep his GF happy.'

Mr.Wemmick

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

There's an element of theatre to DC's exit from the front door, he would well know that will make all the front pages tomorrow. If I wanted to remain involved in shaping policy surreptitiously that front door exit is exactly how I'd play it.

Just a thought.

Yes, agree. Out the front door, and in the back.

Theatre games.

Ian Dunt hot on it with Cumming's departure.

https://twitter.com/OhGodWhatNowPod/status/1327311312695726080?s=20

murphaph

I'd be very surprised if this departure isn't directly related the Trump's own.

A Dub in Glasgo

Indeed, it looks like Biden told the UK a few home truths

Spanish Eyes

murphaph wrote: »

I'd be very surprised if this departure isn't directly related the Trump's own.

Ah but according to his own utterances he was planning to leave around now anyway, but that was probably with Trump in place admittedly, success for Brexit on the horizon now!

But look it, none of us have a clue what goes on behind no 10 closed doors. Who knows what is real and what is not?

I reckom Cummins will be pulling the strings for a while yet. The interim guy will have to watch his back, but he is no idiot either.

Still haven't heard directly from Johnson what exactly Brexit is expected to achieve. A sword of Damocles over his head from the Gammons or what. We shall see I suppose.

murphaph

I don't believe Johnson is all that clever. I reckon Cummings has been telling him all year that Trump will organise the safety net, allowing the UK to give two fingers to the EU but now even Johnson sees the impending catastrophe with Trump exiting the stage. Johnson is PM. He finally realises he's going to be left holding the Brexit baby and it's hideous and he's not exactly great father material to begin with!

ancapailldorcha

murphaph wrote: »

I don't believe Johnson is all that clever. I reckon Cummings has been telling him all year that Trump will organise the safety net, allowing the UK to give two fingers to the EU but now even Johnson sees the impending catastrophe with Trump exiting the stage. Johnson is PM. He finally realises he's going to be left holding the Brexit baby and it's hideous and he's not exactly great father material to begin with!

Johnson does seem to be clever but the overwhelming implication from reading Politics for so long is that his indolence is all but boundless.

I don't think Cummings really cares about UK-US trade post Brexit. Relying on Trump to organise anything more onerous than a pithy tweet is the height of stupidity and I don't think Cummings is stupid.

If I didn't know any better, I'd say Johnson's "plan" was to win the election, sort out a trade deal which kept maximum trade, flog it to the public and then invest or spend in a load of flashy projects like his water cannons or the garden bridge from his days as Mayor of London. He'd then go back to the north in 2024 and campaign on having got things done, bringing real change to their lives and championing Britain abroad. Now, he's overseen the highest number of coronavirus deaths in Europe, done diddly squat for the north and appears to be forced into a humiliating submission to Brussels as they haven't even solved the simple problem of border controls for goods despite having had over 4 years since the referendum result and knowing that the single market and customs union were red lines that they would not cross.

It looks like show for me. Leave through the front door in front of all the cameras. Johnson announces a great deal next week that he delivered, not Cummings.
Cummings was holding us back.
Cummings is still advising via WhatsApp regardless.

eire4

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Indeed, it looks like Biden told the UK a few home truths

Seems that way. I think London is in no doubt now that if they even blink in regards to the WA and there being no border in Ireland then they can kiss any potential trade deal with the US goodbye.

Patser

From what I'm seeing there's 3 elements to all this:

Carrie Symonds hates Cummings and Cain and vice versa (especially that they are effectively in her house, with her partner all the time)

Biden's election has removed a key support they had in post-Brexit trade options, and Biden has been very vocal in shutting this down

The EU (possibly emboldened by Biden) - have not in any way blinked. The German car makers and French wine producers are not screaming for a deal. Instead with time almost out, nothing has been done.



Put those 3 aspects together, in an enclosed space like Number 10 and it's a pressure cooker. Johnson for all his faults can read a room, and knows the public will not abide failed negotiations, and they've promised so much they are fecked now no matter what they do.

CrabRevolution

Patser wrote: »

From what I'm seeing there's 3 elements to all this:
The EU (possibly emboldened by Biden) - have not in any way blinked. The German car makers and French wine producers are not screaming for a deal. Instead with time almost out, nothing has been done.

I've been letting my more hopeful side imagine that this is the case; that hardcore brexiters like Cain and Cummings have been telling Johnson to just stay the course and keep banging his fist on the table and the EU will cave. My theory goes that Johnson started sweating a bit at the fact the EU don't look like caving, and also he has lost the support of Trump which was realistically only moral support, but brexiters saw a US-UK deal as either a safety net or (impossibly) a method of rebuilding and exceeding all the trade lost with the EU. As a result he began to doubt Cummings and co's advice too. He may have asked for them to craft a more moderate path to adapt to the situation, which they simply refused to give resulting in them parting ways.

100% speculation on my part, and it gives Johnson far too much credit. But I can always hope.

Sam Russell

Patser wrote: »

From what I'm seeing there's 3 elements to all this:

Carrie Symonds hates Cummings and Cain and vice versa (especially that they are effectively in her house, with her partner all the time)

Biden's election has removed a key support they had in post-Brexit trade options, and Biden has been very vocal in shutting this down

The EU (possibly emboldened by Biden) - have not in any way blinked. The German car makers and French wine producers are not screaming for a deal. Instead with time almost out, nothing has been done.



Put those 3 aspects together, in an enclosed space like Number 10 and it's a pressure cooker. Johnson for all his faults can read a room, and knows the public will not abide failed negotiations, and they've promised so much they are fecked now no matter what they do.

Add to that they need 50,000customs officers that need 6 months training, and have hired none. What does that say?

If I drive a Merc or BMW and buy one new every two or three years, is a 10% tariff going to get me to buy a Nissan or Toyota? I don't think so!

I think a deal is on the way.

By the way, what is this all about - NI food shortages because supermarkets will have SPS and customs paperwork between GB and NI? Dunnes, Aldi and Lidl do and probably Tesco could supply NI from Irish distribution centres. So Sainsbury, Morrisons and M&S are looking for special treatment. Why should they get that? We can supply all their needs.

Seth Brundle

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It looks like show for me. Leave through the front door in front of all the cameras. Johnson announces a great deal next week that he delivered, not Cummings.
Cummings was holding us back.
Cummings is still advising via WhatsApp regardless.

Agreed. I don't think DC led the British government for so long, giving the Tories what they wanted, only to have the likes of Boris take control at the last minute. This has to have been orchestrated in some shape or form.

_Puma_

Theatrics, plain and simple. Our Tory friends are having a jolly old chinwag tonight over the confusion they are sowing before putting their final plan into action. What that actually is is anyone's guess at this stage, they are so incompetent, but one thing for certain is it wont be benefiting anybody but themselves and their closest benifactors.

reslfj

Sam Russell wrote: »

... Dunnes, Aldi and Lidl do and probably Tesco could supply NI from Irish distribution centres. So Sainsbury, Morrisons and M&S are looking for special treatment.

Why should they get that? We can supply all their needs.

Moving the goods from RoI into NI is the least of the problems.

It is much more than non trivial additions to IT systems to support delivery to more than one country from the same warehouse/distribution centre.
Integration with shop IT systems also non trivial with more countries.

All IT changes takes a long time - and much longer time in such a close to 24/7 environment as a major supermarket chain is.


Lars

Sam Russell

reslfj wrote: »

Moving the goods from RoI into NI is the least of the problems.

It is much more than non trivial additions to IT systems to support delivery to more than one country from the same warehouse/distribution centre.
Integration with shop IT systems also non trivial with more countries.

All IT changes takes a long time - and much longer time in such a close to 24/7 environment as a major supermarket chain is.


Lars

But they have had nearly a year to do it.