Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Rain Ascending

We can expect severe problems with the transport of goods to/from/through the UK prior to 1/1/21. Some of the issues are Brexit-related, some are not:

• Felixtowe has a number of problems related to staffing and systems resulting in disruptions there. About 35% of all Lo-Lo (lift-on/lift-off) containers landing or departing from the UK go through Felixstowe. The third most important port for Lo-Lo, Southampton, is also critical.
• Shortages of hauliers is also starting to kick in as drivers and companies seem to be withdrawing from NI and GB markets.
• There is a world-wide shortage of containers, pushing up prices.

Evidently, due to the delays, some carriers are not accepting shipments from Asia to the UK. For where I'm getting all of the above, see this Twitter thread.

As a reminder, Dover-Calais and the Channel Tunnel are the two big Ro-Ro (roll-on/roll-off) routes -- and these will be most heavily hit by Brexit on 1/1/21, due to the high number of custom/regulatory declarations and the fact that there isn't enough time to process these while on-board. Fall-back options are expensive air freight (for high-value, non-bulky, urgent goods) and Lo-Lo container routes (for non-urgent, bulkier goods). But from the above, Lo-Lo looks to be in trouble as well.

For Brexit logistics, keep an eye on @vivamjm on Twitter. Staunchly critical of Brexit, his Twitter feed is, and will be, a good early warning system on UK logistics over the next few months. To be honest, it's hard to evaluate what the downstream impact will be -- you'll need to keep an eye out for manufacturers/wholesalers/retailers complaining about shortages and delays and that means for their operations. But these pointers regarding the underlying logistics will be the "canary in the coalmine". And the signs now, 7 weeks out from 1/1/21, are not good...

Buckle up.

reslfj

Sam Russell wrote: »

But they have had nearly a year to do it.

One year is very little time to implement new/extended complicated IT systems in the case of a supermarket chain.

There is a mountain of programs, interfaces, and tests, tests, tests imvolved.

With the volume of activity in even a small supermarket chain, absolutely nothing can happen unless it is done through the IT systems and done 100% correctly by all of the programs.

Again the goods is the least of the problems.


Lars

fash

eire4 wrote: »

Seems that way. I think London is in no doubt now that if they even blink in regards to the WA and there being no border in Ireland then they can kiss any potential trade deal with the US goodbye.

Frankly I would hope that Biden would be putting more pressure than "no FTA" on the UK.

eire4

fash wrote: »

Frankly I would hope that Biden would be putting more pressure than "no FTA" on the UK.

What were you thinking of?

Professor Moriarty

fash wrote: »

Frankly I would hope that Biden would be putting more pressure than "no FTA" on the UK.

It probably is enough. A threadbare trade agreement with the EU plus Covid-19 means that Britain desperately needs a trade agreement with the US. Regardless of whatever agreements they ultimately get, the Tories have gutted the UK's status on the world stage diplomatically and economically. In fact, I would suggest that John Major is being overly ambitious when he said that Britain is a top second-rank power. They are increasingly irrelevant and have decreasing influence and respect. Ireland should distance itself from this bitter and arrogant has-been as quickly and as much as possible. Then snuggle up under the Franco-German blanket and cosy up to the "Irish" Biden administration.

J Mysterio

How in gods name have they managed this? Big trouble ahead, and we're still in the transition period!

https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1327536695206621186?s=20

dresden8

Tell me how wrote: »

Did you miss the release of his congratulations containing a 'watermark' of Trumps name?

Looked shoddy.

Doesn't he always write two versions of everything!!!!!

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please avoid insults and snappy comments. A few posts have been removed.

fash

eire4 wrote: »

What were you thinking of?

I have no idea- what options are there on the table ( the equivalent of Suez crisis selling of UK government bonds?) Aside from the fact that minor economic pain is not much of an incentive when it comes to Brexit, an FTA is too far in the future.

farmerval

The elephant in the room has always been Cummins motivation. It was always hard to see his relationship with Boris as being anything other than what they gained from each other, I don't believe there was ever a shared vision or philosophy etc. Partly because I don't believe that Johnson has a philosophy beyond today on any issue.

The really strange thing about all this is now Boris is solely holding the Brexit baby, talk about all your chickens coming home to roost!! Your cabinet of total stooges, no-ones going to blame them, no-one believes they have any hand in any decisions, there just handed the lines they've to stick to in front of the cameras and now the evil menace behind it all is gone so he can't be blamed.

I think this is really turning into a **** show for Boris. A man so unsuited to high office, it's unreal.

Amazing how many traits Boris shares with Trump. Same vainglorious bull****, same ability to drag every issue down to personality, forget policy I'll find a witty or insulting aside about my opponent that means more than any policy. Both incredibly ruthless about reversing norms to get their own way.

Keir Starmer in Leaders questions has really stripped away Boris' cloak and revealed there's nothing inside. Saw some clips of last Wednesday's and it was dread full, Boris jumping up and wittering on about all that private enterprise has done for the UK and Starmer drily pointing oiut the €130m the government spent on a PPE contract that delivered nothing.

It was embarrassing to watch.

One last thing, apart from the fact that the decision making part of the Government is made up largely of right wing journalists, is the fact that the Tories obsession with privatisation has saved their skin so often, it's Northern Line or Virgin Trains or whoever get the blame for brutal service, the Tories are one step removed. They've designed the system but have to an extent avoided the amount of blame they deserve.

Professor Moriarty

The idea that Cummings might remain influential behind the scenes seems to be blown out of the water by The Telegraph today. Apparently it was quite acrimonious between Johnson and Cummings at the end. Johnson resenting the mocking of his fiancee by Cummings' crew and Cummings describing him as indecisive. Of course, there is always the distinct possibility that The Telegraph is manipulating the truth to promote its agenda but seems to be believable.

Lumen

I believe that most of the factors cited as causal of the Cummings early exit are merely symptoms of the crumbling of power/resolve in the face of the Brexit train coming down the tracks.

I know that some believe that no deal exit was always plan A, but I don't think so. I think that No 10. expected that the deal would be done by now (several important deadlines have now passed) and that December would see Dom joyfully skipping off stage as the bureacrats scrabbled to implement the deal.

As the pressure has ramped up in the last few weeks it has no longer been possible to hold the personalities together.

I've worked a little in No. 10 (not recently mind) and one of the things that struck me as an outsider was how few people are actually steering the ship and how averagely talented even the people near the top are. There are several hundred people working there but for the most part they're fairly junior support staff and researchers, and the vast ranks of civil servants spread around Whitehall are just following orders. The (fictional) West Wing it is not.

I'm half expecting/hoping that Frost quits in the next couple of weeks. Boris must be feeling quite isolated right now. If that happens I can see the UK asking for a fresh extension and it being granted on the basis that enough has changed in domestic politics to make the formerly impossible possible.

Cole

farmerval wrote: »

The elephant in the room has always been Cummins motivation. It was always hard to see his relationship with Boris as being anything other than what they gained from each other, I don't believe there was ever a shared vision or philosophy etc. Partly because I don't believe that Johnson has a philosophy beyond today on any issue.

The really strange thing about all this is now Boris is solely holding the Brexit baby, talk about all your chickens coming home to roost!! Your cabinet of total stooges, no-ones going to blame them, no-one believes they have any hand in any decisions, there just handed the lines they've to stick to in front of the cameras and now the evil menace behind it all is gone so he can't be blamed.

I think this is really turning into a **** show for Boris. A man so unsuited to high office, it's unreal.

Amazing how many traits Boris shares with Trump. Same vainglorious bull****, same ability to drag every issue down to personality, forget policy I'll find a witty or insulting aside about my opponent that means more than any policy. Both incredibly ruthless about reversing norms to get their own way.

Keir Starmer in Leaders questions has really stripped away Boris' cloak and revealed there's nothing inside. Saw some clips of last Wednesday's and it was dread full, Boris jumping up and wittering on about all that private enterprise has done for the UK and Starmer drily pointing oiut the €130m the government spent on a PPE contract that delivered nothing.

It was embarrassing to watch.

One last thing, apart from the fact that the decision making part of the Government is made up largely of right wing journalists, is the fact that the Tories obsession with privatisation has saved their skin so often, it's Northern Line or Virgin Trains or whoever get the blame for brutal service, the Tories are one step removed. They've designed the system but have to an extent avoided the amount of blame they deserve.

That was always pretty clear imo, but for some bizarre reason there are many in the UK (England) who just seemed to connect with the 'bluster' and slogans. Covid really started to expose him...can't really hide behind the slogans with this.

Cole

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The idea that Cummings might remain influential behind the scenes seems to be blown out of the water by The Telegraph today. Apparently it was quite acrimonious between Johnson and Cummings at the end. Johnson resenting the mocking of his fiancee by Cummings' crew and Cummings describing him as indecisive. Of course, there is always the distinct possibility that The Telegraph is manipulating the truth to promote its agenda but seems to be believable.

Newsnight were reporting this last night, but also said there was another spin coming out from others saying almost the opposite...who knows.

O'Neill

Cole wrote: »

That was always pretty clear imo, but for some bizarre reason there are many in the UK (England) who just seemed to connect with the 'bluster' and slogans. Covid really started to expose him...can't really hide behind the slogans with this.

'Moonshot' 'hands, face, space' ect..

Enzokk

Lumen wrote: »

I'm half expecting/hoping that Frost quits in the next couple of weeks. Boris must be feeling quite isolated right now. If that happens I can see the UK asking for a fresh extension and it being granted on the basis that enough has changed in domestic politics to make the formerly impossible possible.

Why would the EU want an extension with the Tories still in charge? Will Gove have a different strategy? Or Sunak? They have made their bed, they didn't ask for an extension in June and laughed at the thought of it. They now have to deal with it.

Lumen

Enzokk wrote: »

Why would the EU want an extension with the Tories still in charge? Will Gove have a different strategy? Or Sunak? They have made their bed, they didn't ask for an extension in June and laughed at the thought of it. They now have to deal with it.

Because I believe that the EU negotiators are essentially patient, reasonable people who have sympathy for the half of the country that didn't vote for this crap.

O'Neill

Enzokk wrote: »

Why would the EU want an extension with the Tories still in charge? Will Gove have a different strategy? Or Sunak? They have made their bed, they didn't ask for an extension in June and laughed at the thought of it. They now have to deal with it.

He scares me to be honest. I think he'll take over from Johnson and tries to paint the tories being 'fair' again ect.. whilst continuing the same trajectory of Cummings agenda.

54and56

Lumen wrote: »

I'm half expecting/hoping that Frost quits in the next couple of weeks.

Heard he threatened to resign during the week. What's the motivation to resign when he is close to finalising the Brexit negotiations one way or another so soon?

Lumen

54and56 wrote: »

Heard he threatened to resign during the week. What's the motivation to resign when he is close to finalising the Brexit negotiations one way or another so soon?

David Frost is a political adviser not a career civil servant. He's personally/professionally invested in a particular type of Brexit. So it makes sense that he might go in a political clear out of Brexit true believers, if that is what is happening.

Also, are they really close to finalising the negotiations?

Professor Moriarty

O'Neill wrote: »

He scares me to be honest. I think he'll take over from Johnson and tries to paint the tories being 'fair' again ect.. whilst continuing the same trajectory of Cummings agenda.

Sunak another Winchester College/Oxford Old Boy. The useful idiots will cheer and cheer as he pushes on with Brexit and Thatcherite policies.

CelticRambler

Lumen wrote: »

I'm half expecting/hoping that Frost quits in the next couple of weeks. Boris must be feeling quite isolated right now. If that happens I can see the UK asking for a fresh extension and it being granted on the basis that enough has changed in domestic politics to make the formerly impossible possible.

Lumen wrote: »

Enzokk wrote: »

Why would the EU want an extension with the Tories still in charge? Will Gove have a different strategy? Or Sunak? They have made their bed, they didn't ask for an extension in June and laughed at the thought of it. They now have to deal with it.

Because I believe that the EU negotiators are essentially patient, reasonable people who have sympathy for the half of the country that didn't vote for this crap.

Yeah but ... enough of the country subsequently voted for a Tory government led by Boris Johnson promising to Get Brexit Done, the same Boris Johnson who dithered and delayed all Spring and Summer, and then introduced unilateral amendments to the WA/NI protocol and very, very, very recently reinforced his publicly stated belief that these international law-breaking clauses are essential by pledging to put them back into the Bill when the Lords had taken them out.

At the end of the day (or month ... ) nothing in the UK's domestic politics of real importance to the EU has changed: they're still dealing with a government led by someone who does not keep his promises. The EU negotiators can afford to be patient and wait for the UK electorate to choose a more reasonable government.

54and56

Lumen wrote: »

David Frost is a political adviser not a career civil servant. He's personally/professionally invested in a particular type of Brexit. So it makes sense that he might go in a political clear out of Brexit true believers, if that is what is happening.

Also, are they really close to finalising the negotiations?

Yes, either they agree a deal or the clock runs out and it's a no/WTO/Australia/Mongolia deal.

One way or another negotiations will be finalised very soon.

Capt'n Midnight

54and56 wrote: »

Yes, either they agree a deal or the clock runs out and it's a no/WTO/Australia/Mongolia deal.

One way or another negotiations will be finalised very soon.

Mongolia ?

Not a chance.

The UK isn't going to get Mongolia's level of access to the EU without major concessions.

Mongolia, however, receives preferential tariffs of zero per cent on most exports to the E.U., including natural honey.

Two quotes from the workshop: “The E.U. is here to help Mongolia” and “The E.U. wants to increase Mongolian exports to the E.U..” (The preferential tariff rate of zero per cent supports these statements).

Why should Mongolia sign trade agreements with the UK, when it has this level of support from the E.U.? The E.U., from what I have seen, has a presence and impact in Mongolia which dwarfs any UK involvement. The only Brits I have met here work for the E.U.

Capt'n Midnight

Lumen wrote: »

Because I believe that the EU negotiators are essentially patient, reasonable people who have sympathy for the half of the country that didn't vote for this crap.

There's also the small issue of three million EU citizens living in the UK and another million entitled to EU citizenship in NI. And the effect of the border on an EU member state.

Infini

J Mysterio wrote: »

How in gods name have they managed this? Big trouble ahead, and we're still in the transition period!

https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1327536695206621186?s=20

From what we've seen over the last 4 year's through blatant stupidity and idiocy and drunk on Unicorn Piss to boot. Honestly we've known about this coming for a long time just those in charge didn't care one bit as it undermined their ideological bullshít.

Let's be honest if the Brit's don't ask for an extension at the last minute and drive off the cliff at the end of next month it will be their fault and their fault alone. The incompetence of the conservative party will haunt them long after 1/1/21 as a prime example of why idelogues and idiots have no place in either politics or power and are unfit for any leadership position period.

CelticRambler

Infini wrote: »

Let's be honest if the Brit's don't ask for an extension at the last minute and drive off the cliff at the end of next month it will be their fault and their fault alone.

They can ask, but to what end? They've had the best part of a year to agree on the most contentious issues, but they've wasted all that time, first by saying it'd be more sensible to agree the non-contentious stuff and figure out the hard bits later; next by deliberately opting out of requesting an extension when the opportunity was handed to them on a face-saving coronavirus-infected plate; then by deliberately refusing to commit to maintaining UK-EU standards in respect of animal welfare in the Agriculture bill; and to cap it all, introducing a new complication with their IMB for no good reason.

The EU does not need an extension, and if a request is received, they'll want cast-iron guarantees that it's not just to prolong the run of the Downing Street Amateur Dramatic Society's 2019 Christmas Panto well into 2021.

lennymc

long time lurker here - thanks to all the regular posters. I have a question - From the EU perspective, what is the path for granting an extension, should one be asked for? Didn't the WA specifically mention July as the cut off for an extension request, and if that is the case, how would the EU grant an extension, whilst abiding by the WA. I know there is the option of an interim period between a new FTA and 1/1/21, but that implies that there is an agreement on a future relationship. Or am I missing something.
Thanks

trellheim

Prince Charles and Camilla have just arrived in Berlin for their attendance at German day of remembrance, first royals to do so. Mentioned because it is usually the case to send out the royals when they want to look good.

View

Lumen wrote: »

I believe that most of the factors cited as causal of the Cummings early exit are merely symptoms of the crumbling of power/resolve in the face of the Brexit train coming down the tracks.

I know that some believe that no deal exit was always plan A, but I don't think so. I think that No 10. expected that the deal would be done by now (several important deadlines have now passed) and that December would see Dom joyfully skipping off stage as the bureacrats scrabbled to implement the deal.

As the pressure has ramped up in the last few weeks it has no longer been possible to hold the personalities together.

I've worked a little in No. 10 (not recently mind) and one of the things that struck me as an outsider was how few people are actually steering the ship and how averagely talented even the people near the top are. There are several hundred people working there but for the most part they're fairly junior support staff and researchers, and the vast ranks of civil servants spread around Whitehall are just following orders. The (fictional) West Wing it is not.

I'm half expecting/hoping that Frost quits in the next couple of weeks. Boris must be feeling quite isolated right now. If that happens I can see the UK asking for a fresh extension and it being granted on the basis that enough has changed in domestic politics to make the formerly impossible possible.

There is no longer any legal basis for the U.K. to request an extension to the transition period or for the EU countries to grant one. The deadline for the U.K. requesting one was back at the end of June.

It would require a new international treaty (or re-opening and modification of the WA), to allow for the possibility of one. Both of those possibilities would have to go through the full ratification process by the EU member states, and after four and a half years of faffing around, I can’t see any politicians being in any rush to ruin their (early) Christmas holidays to do that in order to help the Brexiters out.

Remember for many EU member states, the U.K. is a minor trading partner, and those countries could very happily live with “no deal”, even if they’d prefer an FTA.