Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Widdensushi

Roanmore wrote: »

We keep hearing about how the fish industry will thrive after Brexit and these guys were one of the loudest groups in support of Brexit.
Now they are complaining that bureaucracy will finish off their industry.

https://mobile.twitter.com/bbcmartynoates/status/1327958985614495744

The crazy thing is that a very large amount of the English fleet /quota is owned by Dutch and Spanish people /companies.

Roanmore

54and56 wrote: »

It's the gold standard epitome of Brexit stupidity.

Let's not think it through, let's just strike a blow for Blighty and hope it'll be grand

This reply tweet sums it up best.

I honestly believe they thought they would have exclusive access to their own waters and be able to sell tariff free in to the EU, no downsides whatsoever.
Gove and Farage convinced them.

View

Widdensushi wrote: »

The crazy thing is that a very large amount of the English fleet /quota is owned by Dutch and Spanish people /companies.

There is nothing crazy about that. That’s just standard consolidation that takes place in any industry.

No one thinks twice about consolidation when it happens in retail etc. If there is anything crazy, it is that governments haven’t spelled it out to fishermen that their industry doesn’t get some sort of special exemption to the forces that effect every other industry.

View

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Looking at the latest trade figures, exports to GB are now only 8% of the global total, and could soon be overtaken by China, but dependence on British imports isn't falling as swiftly, so it seems companies are holding off before switching suppliers:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsseptember2020/

It was always a strong probability that companies would refrain from seeking alternative suppliers in the rest of the EU to replace U.K. ones.

Our government should have been on top of this from day one, particularly after “no deal”’ began to be repeatedly touted, making it clear to companies that they - not the ordinary consumer here - would be picking up the tab for any additional costs on imports from the U.K. that Brexit caused.

Widdensushi

View wrote: »

There is nothing crazy about that. That’s just standard consolidation that takes place in any industry.

No one thinks twice about consolidation when it happens in retail etc. If there is anything crazy, it is that governments haven’t spelled it out to fishermen that their industry doesn’t get some sort of special exemption to the forces that effect every other industry.

That they don't own their own fleet isn't what I was saying is crazy, that taking back their own seas was one of the posterboys for brexit when the biggest beneficiaries of any gain are not English and for the most part don't live in England is ironic.

Sam Russell

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Looking at the latest trade figures, exports to GB are now only 8% of the global total, and could soon be overtaken by China, but dependence on British imports isn't falling as swiftly, so it seems companies are holding off before switching suppliers:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsseptember2020/

How much of these UK imports are from NI? How much are caused by the likes of Tesco, M&S, B&Q, Halfords, Currys, etc. just continuing to add Irish stores to the UK order forms? And how much is Amazon?

Will competition sort this out? Lidl, Aldi, Dunnes, Musgraves, etc. are all active competitors, and all want increased market share. M&S appear to be ready to quit the Irish market - I wonder, if they do, will Tesco follow suit.

Edit: I assume vehicles are counted as imports from the UK even if they were actually manufactured elsewhere. Is this so? Will this cease after the UK leaves?

Winters

When David Frost says

We are working to get a deal, but the only one that's possible is one that is compatible with our sovereignty and takes back control of our laws, our trade, and our waters. That has been our consistent position from the start and I will not be changing it.

What is he expecting from the EU? Barnier must be at a point where he is unable to 'negotiate' any further.

I dont see any solution without a massive public climbdown by the UK. There are 26 other countries that are as sovereign as possible in the eyes of the UN and international relations. Just because Ireland pools our resources with other countries I dont see us as any less sovereign.

VinLieger

Sam Russell wrote: »

How much of these UK imports are from NI? How much are caused by the likes of Tesco, M&S, B&Q, Halfords, Currys, etc. just continuing to add Irish stores to the UK order forms? And how much is Amazon?

Will competition sort this out? Lidl, Aldi, Dunnes, Musgraves, etc. are all active competitors, and all want increased market share. M&S appear to be ready to quit the Irish market - I wonder, if they do, will Tesco follow suit.

Edit: I assume vehicles are counted as imports from the UK even if they were actually manufactured elsewhere. Is this so? Will this cease after the UK leaves?

Considering Tescos 22% market share i doubt i happening immediately but it definitely could happen in the coming years if everyone else gangs up on them being in the weaker position.

Strazdas

Sam Russell wrote: »

How much of these UK imports are from NI? How much are caused by the likes of Tesco, M&S, B&Q, Halfords, Currys, etc. just continuing to add Irish stores to the UK order forms? And how much is Amazon?

Will competition sort this out? Lidl, Aldi, Dunnes, Musgraves, etc. are all active competitors, and all want increased market share. M&S appear to be ready to quit the Irish market - I wonder, if they do, will Tesco follow suit.

Edit: I assume vehicles are counted as imports from the UK even if they were actually manufactured elsewhere. Is this so? Will this cease after the UK leaves?

Incidentally, buying things from NI will not be affected (because of the Irish Protocol). Companies will be able to buy from NI suppliers and ordinary consumers will be able to buy online from NI without taxes or duties.

Headshot

So do we think a deal will happen?

Personally Id like GB to crash out with no deal and let them rot for a few months and have them come back with their tail between their legs.

Sam Russell

Strazdas wrote: »

Incidentally, buying things from NI will not be affected (because of the Irish Protocol). Companies will be able to buy from NI suppliers and ordinary consumers will be able to buy online from NI without taxes or duties.

I realise that NI goods will have free entry, but what percentage of UK imports do they make up? Also, a lot of products are imported into the UK and later exported to us at additional cost to us - and that is before tariffs.

Also, given that Dunnes, Aldi and Lidl distribute to NI from here, and Tesco either do, or could, so why is there talk about a food shortage in NI post Dec 2020?

L1011

Aldi do not exist in NI, at all. Seen them mentioned repeatedly on this thread!

Musgraves distribute to NI from here at least partially and have a significant market share.

View

Sam Russell wrote: »

I realise that NI goods will have free entry, but what percentage of UK imports do they make up? Also, a lot of products are imported into the UK and later exported to us at additional cost to us - and that is before tariffs.

Also, given that Dunnes, Aldi and Lidl distribute to NI from here, and Tesco either do, or could, so why is there talk about a food shortage in NI post Dec 2020?

According to a report for the HoC, the U.K. exported circa £38 billions worth of goods to Ireland in 2019. According to the NI stats office, in “2018/19”, NI exported £3.2 billions worth of goods to Ireland.

So NI accounts for less that 10% of the UK’s exports to Ireland, which means we are tying ourselves up in knots for very little.

It should also be mentioned that the number one U.K. export to Ireland is “Petroleum and related products”. There is no reason why, if there is no FTA, that can’t arrive here direct from the rest of the EU or further afield after January 1st. Any petrol company here bringing that in from the U.K. after January 1st should be hammered by the government otherwise every consumer and business in the country will end up being penalised for those companies laziness.

Patser

Strazdas wrote: »

This quote from Johnson doesn't exactly sound encouraging - talking about how No Deal would be no bad thing.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54958343

As one of the quotes under that article simply states - If no deal is good, if the UK doesn't need a deal and will thrive without one - what have the last 4 years of negotiations, tantrums, missed deadlines and promises to walk been all about?

No-one believes them, their bluff has been called time and time again. The EU will always just keep on negotiating, they like trade, and if they can't get a deal now, they'll settle for one later. It's getting pathetic to hear him still parroting the line they can leave

forgottenhills

Winters wrote: »

When David Frost says



What is he expecting from the EU? Barnier must be at a point where he is unable to 'negotiate' any further.

I dont see any solution without a massive public climbdown by the UK. There are 26 other countries that are as sovereign as possible in the eyes of the UN and international relations. Just because Ireland pools our resources with other countries I dont see us as any less sovereign.

I don't understand why many here are surprised by the statements of the various parties.

Take the fishing area. Is it so surprising that the UK want to insist that it has a sovereign right to the waters inside its 200 mile limit? That is the case in international law and it is entitled to tell the EU to take a running jump on its demands on that area.

Now of course rights can be, and will be, bartered and the UK will likely have to exchange fishing rights in its waters in a swap for rights of its financial services firms to offer services in the EU. And particularly as the UK needs to sell most of the fish it catches into the EU. But it is surely not a surprise that it sees the EU as being quite pushy in seemingly demanding an automatic right to fish in UK waters?

And yes Ireland has indeed pooled sovereignty in many aspects of our relations with the EU. For instance in the fishing area we have ceded sovereignty over our 200 mile zone to other EU countries. But we agreed to do so in a quid pro quo for access to other resources and markets in the other countries. We have also ceded sovereignty to the EU in financial matters by adopting the Euro which means for instance that we cannot set interest rates to suit our own economy. Of course we did this for the quid pro quo of the greater stability of adopting the Euro. But you can't say that we haven't ceded sovereignty in the EU. The UK now, rightly or wrongly, wishes to gain this pooled sovereignty back. It believes that it should be able to enter into trade deals without any impact on its sovereignty and that in itself is reasonable in theory. In practice it will probably find that it is not possible to do deals with major economies or blocs without various ground rules impinging on its sovereignty (its Japan deal was an example in relation to state aid rules).

The thing that is weird though is that fishing is a very strange hill for either the UK or the EU to die on. It just has seemed to become a symbolic area for both sides, the UK in terms of its perceived sovereignty and the EU perhaps as a naked power play in flexing its muscle as the bigger side in the trade talks. Irish farmers relying on exports to the UK, for one, will be very unhappy if the whole trade deal dies on this hill. (Which I don't expect to happen in the end)

forgottenhills

Headshot wrote: »

So do we think a deal will happen?

Personally Id like GB to crash out with no deal and let them rot for a few months and have them come back with their tail between their legs.

You are a fan of slash and burn politics and economics then? If you were relying on exports to the UK for your job, as thousands of Irish people do, then you might have a more mature attitude and hope that a deal is signed.

Sam Russell

Strazdas wrote: »

Incidentally, buying things from NI will not be affected (because of the Irish Protocol). Companies will be able to buy from NI suppliers and ordinary consumers will be able to buy online from NI without taxes or duties.

I realise that but what level are they?

Does the milk moved south figure in this figure? Sheep and pigs cross the border for processing - how do these affect the figures, because these will continue as before.

What will happen to northern registered cars when they are south of the border? Do they need any special paperwork?

Lots of details needed but no information.

McGiver

Headshot wrote:

Personally Id like GB to crash out with no deal and let them rot for a few months and have them come back with their tail between their legs.

This will never happen. It would need a decade...

The English nation doesn't have any such quality (as a nation, not on individual level). They won't admit fault or grow up, they are too arrogant and ignorant (a deadly combo).

They'll blame the EU, the foreigners, the Remainers, the metropolitan elites, etc etc.

Worst case, with this toxic regime at the helm, they could even do some sabre rattling a la Russia. If HMG Minister threatened to starve Ireland out, I wouldn't be surprised if these maniacs took it further (the gutterpress and the ignorant folk would be cheering).

Strazdas

Sam Russell wrote: »

I realise that but what level are they?

Does the milk moved south figure in this figure? Sheep and pigs cross the border for processing - how do these affect the figures, because these will continue as before.

What will happen to northern registered cars when they are south of the border? Do they need any special paperwork?

Lots of details needed but no information.

All we know is that the entire island will be an EU Single Market area - it will be interesting to see how this is implemented in practise.

McGiver

An Ciarraioch wrote:

Looking at the latest trade figures, exports to GB are now only 8% of the global total, and could soon be overtaken by China, but dependence on British imports isn't falling as swiftly, so it seems companies are holding off before switching suppliers:

I've never been concerned about exports. They're on a long term downward trajectory and Brexit only accelerated it, which is good for diversification anyway.

I've been always more concerned about imports, it's 25%+ AFAIK. Not sorting it in the last few years is an issue, the supply chains have been like that, because it was the easiest solution, I guess, but not acting on this during the few years long Brexit period is just complacency and a try to avoid any sort of hassle (i.e. laziness).

Lot of consumer goods and food is UK imported.
Will we see:
1. Increase in prices due to increased prices of UK imports?
2. Reduced offering due to cessation of more expensive UK imports?
3. Replacement of UK imports with EU imports?

Sam Russell

McGiver wrote: »

I've never been concerned about exports. They're on a long term downward trajectory and Brexit only accelerated it, which is good for diversification anyway.

I've been always more concerned about imports, it's 25%+ AFAIK. Not sorting it in the last few years is an issue, the supply chains have been like that, because it was the easiest solution, I guess, but not acting on this during the few years long Brexit period is just complacency and a try to avoid any sort of hassle (i.e. laziness).

Lot of consumer goods and food is UK imported.
Will we see:
1. Increase in prices due to increased prices of UK imports?
2. Reduced offering due to cessation of more expensive UK imports?
3. Replacement of UK imports with EU imports?

We have Tesco operating here and it is trivial to treat the Irish operation as part of the UK one, but not from the 1st Jan 2021. Now will they try to continue as before - and suffer the paperwork ad tariffs - or will they try and substitute EU supplies and local supplied products. Or will hey shut up shop - selling out and going. I expect that M&S to quit both Ireland and NI.

Do our imports of RHD cars, like VW and Mercedes get posted as UK imports? This would distort the figures.

Are there any available official figures?

Headshot

McGiver wrote: »

This will never happen. It would need a decade...

The English nation doesn't have any such quality (as a nation, not on individual level). They won't admit fault or grow up, they are too arrogant and ignorant (a deadly combo).

They'll blame the EU, the foreigners, the Remainers, the metropolitan elites, etc etc.

Worst case, with this toxic regime at the helm, they could even do some sabre rattling a la Russia. If HMG Minister threatened to starve Ireland out, I wouldn't be surprised if these maniacs took it further (the gutterpress and the ignorant folk would be cheering).

Some valid points but I think the long lorry wait time in Kent will really hit home with some

View

forgottenhills wrote: »

I don't understand why many here are surprised by the statements of the various parties.

Take the fishing area. Is it so surprising that the UK want to insist that it has a sovereign right to the waters inside its 200 mile limit? That is the case in international law and it is entitled to tell the EU to take a running jump on its demands on that area.

Now of course rights can be, and will be, bartered and the UK will likely have to exchange fishing rights in its waters in a swap for rights of its financial services firms to offer services in the EU. And particularly as the UK needs to sell most of the fish it catches into the EU. But it is surely not a surprise that it sees the EU as being quite pushy in seemingly demanding an automatic right to fish in UK waters?

And yes Ireland has indeed pooled sovereignty in many aspects of our relations with the EU. For instance in the fishing area we have ceded sovereignty over our 200 mile zone to other EU countries. But we agreed to do so in a quid pro quo for access to other resources and markets in the other countries. We have also ceded sovereignty to the EU in financial matters by adopting the Euro which means for instance that we cannot set interest rates to suit our own economy. Of course we did this for the quid pro quo of the greater stability of adopting the Euro. But you can't say that we haven't ceded sovereignty in the EU. The UK now, rightly or wrongly, wishes to gain this pooled sovereignty back. It believes that it should be able to enter into trade deals without any impact on its sovereignty and that in itself is reasonable in theory. In practice it will probably find that it is not possible to do deals with major economies or blocs without various ground rules impinging on its sovereignty (its Japan deal was an example in relation to state aid rules).

The thing that is weird though is that fishing is a very strange hill for either the UK or the EU to die on. It just has seemed to become a symbolic area for both sides, the UK in terms of its perceived sovereignty and the EU perhaps as a naked power play in flexing its muscle as the bigger side in the trade talks. Irish farmers relying on exports to the UK, for one, will be very unhappy if the whole trade deal dies on this hill. (Which I don't expect to happen in the end)

A country deciding to make decisions jointly with other countries in an international organisation (including the EU) does not require a country to “cede” sovereignty.

Brexit indeed proves the point as, when the U.K. decided to leave the EU, it was entirely a sovereign decision of the U.K. to do so. It did not need to “petition” the other countries in the EU to have any of its former sovereignty returned to it (since none had been given away). In addition, the other member states did not have any decision to make about the wisdom or not of returning sovereignty to the U.K. (Contrast that with the case of Scotland which is entirely beholden on the goodwill of Westminster when it comes to sovereignty).

As such the argument in the U.K. has next to nothing to do with sovereignty, rather it was merely fuelled by outrage from certain quarters about the decisions that the U.K. was making as it exercised its sovereignty combined with an arrogant assumption that the U.K. would make entirely different decisions were it not a member of the EU. Of course, the fact that none of the Brexiters were able to agree on what those “different decisions” should be or had ever made any serious effort to stop any of current set of decisions when they came before Parliament (in Westminster) was and is completely ignored in the U.K., since any attempt to articulate a vision of what a post-Brexit U.K. will look like has long since been abandoned.

ExMachina1000

Headshot wrote: »

So do we think a deal will happen?

Personally Id like GB to crash out with no deal and let them rot for a few months and have them come back with their tail between their legs.

I'd like to see them leave, prosper on their own after an obvious period of hardship and then never return. Others may follow suit eventually if they so choose.

Countries are free to leave the EU if they choose to do so. Obviously they lose the benefits of being in the union but they should be allowed the choice without the vitriol

Professor Moriarty

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

I'd like to see them leave, prosper on their own after an obvious period of hardship and then never return. Others may follow suit eventually if they so choose.

Countries are free to leave the EU if they choose to do so. Obviously they lose the benefits of being in the union but they should be allowed the choice without the vitriol

Before and after the referendum, the vitriol flowed freely in one direction. And it was directed at the EU.

Capt'n Midnight

forgottenhills wrote: »

Now of course rights can be, and will be, bartered and the UK will likely have to exchange fishing rights in its waters in a swap for rights of its financial services firms to offer services in the EU.

The UK doesn't have a good hand.

They export most of the fish caught in it's waters as they don't like those species. So they can't starve the EU out.

And they eat the fish the EU exports so they hardly going to starve themselves out ?



It's not high stakes either.

Seafood trade is about £1.3Bn each way. Including Norway. The UK having a surplus of £135m.


Against that the UK is risking a surplus of £18,000 on the services sectors.

Or more if they start to run a deficit.

Fishing is a red herring.

ILoveYourVibes

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The UK doesn't have a good hand.

They export most of the fish caught in it's waters as they don't like those species. So they can't starve the EU out.

And they eat the fish the EU exports so they hardly going to starve themselves out ?



It's not high stakes either.

Seafood trade is about £1.3Bn each way. Including Norway. The UK having a surplus of £135m.


Against that the UK is risking a surplus of £18,000 on the services sectors.

Or more if they start to run a deficit.

Fishing is a red herring.

Their services sector is ****ed ...they know this.

fash

forgottenhills wrote: »

Now of course rights can be, and will be, bartered and the UK will likely have to exchange fishing rights in its waters in a swap for rights of its financial services firms to offer services in the EU. And particularly as the UK needs to sell most of the fish it catches into the EU.

What about if we exchange the fish rights for a few glass beads and keep the right to sell financial services? Sounds like a far more equal trade than giving the UK billions of euro of business and control of the EU's financial system.

The thing that is weird though is that fishing is a very strange hill for either the UK or the EU to die on. It just has seemed to become a symbolic area for both sides, the UK in terms of its perceived sovereignty and the EU perhaps as a naked power play in flexing its muscle as the bigger side in the trade talks.

For the EU, the fishing thing is mostly so that they can hand the UK a victory on something that brexiters emotively care about of little value. If it wasn't for fishing, any FTA would purely consist of humiliations for the UK - which wouldn't make for a very stable sellable FTA. Better to give the UK a superficial victory and then you can hide the real story in the details.

fash

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

they should be allowed the choice without the vitriol

I think after the various British threats to starve Ireland, deprive it of medicines, wage a targeted economic war against Ireland, deliberately restart the troubles, carrying out an anti Irish propaganda campaign, at a diplomatic level briefing against Ireland and trying to get the EU member states to side with the UK etc etc, in order to carry out a stupid idea which will in any case cause Ireland economic disruption and harm without any consideration for the impact on others, that some feelings of grievance should be expected and justified.

Lumen

There's some great analysis on this thread but IMO it risks veering into Brit bashing, which is understandable but not useful.

I know a lot of Brits and none of them are vitriolic about the EU, or Ireland. Even the few that supported Leave don't feel aggrieved about the EU in a way suggested by decades of poisonous headlines and lies pushed by sections of the British media.

The fault at an individual level in the decision to leave is susceptibility and ignorance of how international trade works, and ignorance of the effect on Ireland. That last bit of ignorance particularly burns, heaped on the preceding history, but gullibility and ignorance are not uniquely British traits.

It's easy for Irish to be positive about the EU, given the extraordinary and obvious benefits that membership has brought here. But still there is discontent here. Not very widespread, but it's there. Particularly amongst fisherman, as it happens. The same arguments about "the Spanish stealing our fish". The difference here is that those arguments haven't taken root in the national consciousness, and hopefully won't. But they did flare up briefly around the Lisbon treaty.

I'm pleased that I live in a country that has a generally sane and positive relationship with the EU, but we're not immune from stupid. I see ignorance and susceptibility here every day on my Facebook feed, often from people with a tricolour in their profile pic. They're exactly the same type of characters as the Brexit morons, railing against perceived injustices and taking refuge in a kind of toxic nationalism.

If Ireland's economy wasn't being so well supported by multinational tax avoidance I wonder whether those anti EU voices would start coming through more strongly.

One particular irony is that the UK has benefited from financial shenanigans just the same as Ireland. That's partly why London voted Remain. The people who voted Leave sort of know this, and were partly motivated by giving those London "elites" a kicking.

Like in the US, the UK is mostly having a battle with itself, and we as its overly dependent neighbour are collateral damage.