Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Fr Tod Umptious

Lumen wrote: »

There's some great analysis of this thread but IMO it risks veering into Brit bashing, which is understandable but not useful.

I know a lot of Brits and none of them are vitriolic about the EU, or Ireland. Even the few that supported Leave don't feel aggrieved about the EU in a way suggested by decades of poisonous headlines and lies pushed by sections of the British media.

The fault at an individual level in the decision to leave is susceptibility and ignorance of how international trade works, and ignorance of the effect on Ireland. That last bit of ignorance particularly burns, heaped on the preceding history, but gullibility and ignorance are not uniquely British traits.

It's easy for Irish to be positive about the EU, given the extraordinary and obvious benefits that membership has brought here. But still there is discontent here. Not very widespread, but it's there. Particularly amongst fisherman, as it happens. The same arguments about "the Spanish stealing our fish". The difference here is that those arguments haven't taken root in the national consciousness, and hopefully won't. But they did flare up briefly around the Lisbon treaty.

I'm pleased that I live in a country that has a generally sane and positive relationship with the EU, but we're not immune from stupid. I see ignorance and susceptibility here every day on my Facebook feed, often from people with a tricolour in their profile pic. They're exactly the same type of characters as the Brexit morons, railing against perceived injustices and taking refuge in a kind of toxic nationalism.

If Ireland's economy wasn't being so well supported by multinational tax avoidance I wonder whether those anti EU voices would start coming through more strongly.

One particular irony is that the UK has benefited from financial shenanigans just the same as Ireland. That's partly why London voted Remain. The people who voted Leave sort of know this, and were partly motivated by giving those London "elites" a kicking.

Like in the US, the UK is mostly having a battle with itself, and we as its overly dependent neighbour are collateral damage.

Very good points.

We have seen great support for the EU in Ireland during the whole Brexit debacle.

But it was a very different story a decade or more ago during the crash when the EU was putting the squeeze on Ireland to deal with it's debt crisis.

Back then I don't recall such fondness for Brussels around here.

murphaph

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

I'd like to see them leave, prosper on their own after an obvious period of hardship and then never return. Others may follow suit eventually if they so choose.

I don't remember the "obvious period of hardship" slogan during the 2016 referendum campaign? You know full well it would not have passed if the truth had been told about this period of expected hardship.

As for "vitriol", have you read a British tabloid ever?

Panrich

Lumen wrote: »

There's some great analysis on this thread but IMO it risks veering into Brit bashing, which is understandable but not useful.

I know a lot of Brits and none of them are vitriolic about the EU, or Ireland. Even the few that supported Leave don't feel aggrieved about the EU in a way suggested by decades of poisonous headlines and lies pushed by sections of the British media.

The fault at an individual level in the decision to leave is susceptibility and ignorance of how international trade works, and ignorance of the effect on Ireland. That last bit of ignorance particularly burns, heaped on the preceding history, but gullibility and ignorance are not uniquely British traits.

It's easy for Irish to be positive about the EU, given the extraordinary and obvious benefits that membership has brought here. But still there is discontent here. Not very widespread, but it's there. Particularly amongst fisherman, as it happens. The same arguments about "the Spanish stealing our fish". The difference here is that those arguments haven't taken root in the national consciousness, and hopefully won't. But they did flare up briefly around the Lisbon treaty.

I'm pleased that I live in a country that has a generally sane and positive relationship with the EU, but we're not immune from stupid. I see ignorance and susceptibility here every day on my Facebook feed, often from people with a tricolour in their profile pic. They're exactly the same type of characters as the Brexit morons, railing against perceived injustices and taking refuge in a kind of toxic nationalism.

If Ireland's economy wasn't being so well supported by multinational tax avoidance I wonder whether those anti EU voices would start coming through more strongly.

One particular irony is that the UK has benefited from financial shenanigans just the same as Ireland. That's partly why London voted Remain. The people who voted Leave sort of know this, and were partly motivated by giving those London "elites" a kicking.

Like in the US, the UK is mostly having a battle with itself, and we as its overly dependent neighbour are collateral damage.

I don’t disagree with your points and having lived in the UK back in the day, I didn’t see radical anti-EU sentiment among ordinary people either.

That is why the track taken by Johnson and May before him based on the will of the people is a sham. It’s a reverse coup perpetrated by UKIP and has mainly gone unchallenged.

Mays mansion house speech has set the tone for Brexit and allowed arbitrary lines in the sand to become sacrosanct.

There would have been a majority in favour of BRINO if that had been cultivated and pursued from the outset.

Instead we now have these radical policies that have been sold to a largely apathetic population under the guise of national duty.

listermint

Lumen wrote: »

There's some great analysis on this thread but IMO it risks veering into Brit bashing, which is understandable but not useful.

I know a lot of Brits and none of them are vitriolic about the EU, or Ireland. Even the few that supported Leave don't feel aggrieved about the EU in a way suggested by decades of poisonous headlines and lies pushed by sections of the British media.

The fault at an individual level in the decision to leave is susceptibility and ignorance of how international trade works, and ignorance of the effect on Ireland. That last bit of ignorance particularly burns, heaped on the preceding history, but gullibility and ignorance are not uniquely British traits.

It's easy for Irish to be positive about the EU, given the extraordinary and obvious benefits that membership has brought here. But still there is discontent here. Not very widespread, but it's there. Particularly amongst fisherman, as it happens. The same arguments about "the Spanish stealing our fish". The difference here is that those arguments haven't taken root in the national consciousness, and hopefully won't. But they did flare up briefly around the Lisbon treaty.

I'm pleased that I live in a country that has a generally sane and positive relationship with the EU, but we're not immune from stupid. I see ignorance and susceptibility here every day on my Facebook feed, often from people with a tricolour in their profile pic. They're exactly the same type of characters as the Brexit morons, railing against perceived injustices and taking refuge in a kind of toxic nationalism.

If Ireland's economy wasn't being so well supported by multinational tax avoidance I wonder whether those anti EU voices would start coming through more strongly.

One particular irony is that the UK has benefited from financial shenanigans just the same as Ireland. That's partly why London voted Remain. The people who voted Leave sort of know this, and were partly motivated by giving those London "elites" a kicking.

Like in the US, the UK is mostly having a battle with itself, and we as its overly dependent neighbour are collateral damage.

I'd agree with you only you are attempting a complete wash over of what's going on at all levels of UK governance. The threats to Ireland were not from some random back bencher. They were from their foreign secretary. You know the person that sits at the cabinet table. The mouthing and anti EU stuff has come from their own brexit negotiator David Frost.

I resent the notion that the thread descends in to Brit bashing there isn't evidence of that it's just a handy trope to throw out when something that paints the UK political system in a bad light. Your comments are not merited by the content that's in this thread.


Finally Ireland has negative relations with the EU? It's still there ? Most recent surveys conducted by red C have EU membership around 86 percent positivety rating yet you choose to look at the 14 percent as being indicative of how Ireland needs to be careful and we could do the absolute idiotic decision the UK has taken.

No lumen I'm afraid there's no basis for your arguments the facts simply don't back it up..it's very much thoughts and feelings , alas much like brexit in the first place.

PeadarCo

listermint wrote: »

I'd agree with you only you are attempting a complete wash over of what's going on at all levels of UK governance. The threats to Ireland were not from some random back bencher. They were from their foreign secretary. You know the person that sits at the cabinet table. The mouthing and anti EU stuff has come from their own brexit negotiator David Frost.

I resent the notion that the thread descends in to Brit bashing there isn't evidence of that it's just a handy trope to throw out when something that paints the UK political system in a bad light. Your comments are not merited by the content that's in this thread.


Finally Ireland has neagtive relations with the EU? It's still there ? Most recent surveys conducted by red C have EU membership around 86 percent positivety rating yet you choose to look at the 14 percent as being indicative of how Ireland needs to be careful and we could do the absolute idiotic decision the UK has taken.

No lumen I'm afraid there's no basis for your arguments the facts simply don't back it up..it's very much thoughts and feelings , alas much like brexit in the first place.

I think something else that has to be remembered is that Brexit of any kind has only been supported by about 52% of British electorate. A hard Brexit by even less and no deal by even fewer people. I think in a previous post only about 20% in an opinion poll. Or put it another way 80% of UK voters are opposed to a strategy that results in a no deal Brexit. Even the current government despite their huge majority seat wise due to nature of the UK voting system got only about 43% of the vote. So even the government isn't very representative of the UK population.


There is a very big difference between critiquing the UK government and the UK state/voters views. Remember the current UK government negotiating policy is only supported by a small minority of UK voters as loud as they are.

murphaph

What's the consensus on the parcel motel business model post December? Dead in the water?

I buy a fair bit of small stuff on UK eBay and have it forwarded to the home place via NI because most sellers aren't prepared to ship outside the UK anymore.

54and56

murphaph wrote: »

What's the consensus on the parcel motel business model post December? Dead in the water?

I buy a fair bit of small stuff on UK eBay and have it forwarded to the home place via NI because most sellers aren't prepared to ship outside the UK anymore.

Not sure about Parcel Motel as I use PArcel Wizard and AddressPal more but I got an email from AddressPal yesterday preparing for Brexit. It basically said everything will carry on as normal from Jan 1st with the exception of customs duties which if applicable due to a No Deal or a very thin deal will result in AddressPal notifying me for payment of before the parcel is delivered. Same as if you were buying from any other country outside the EU.

Might actually be easier for Parcel Motel/Wizard as the vendor in theory will have to charge customs/tariffs when NI is selected as the delivery address given the risk that the item may not stay in NI and find its way into RoI per the WA.

My guess is if there's a No Deal or a thin deal which still sees a need for customs/tariffs in some situations our buying patterns will migrate towards EU alternatives to .co.uk based vendors whether thats Amazon, eBay or others.

VinLieger

murphaph wrote: »

What's the consensus on the parcel motel business model post December? Dead in the water?

I buy a fair bit of small stuff on UK eBay and have it forwarded to the home place via NI because most sellers aren't prepared to ship outside the UK anymore.

Probably switch to An posts Addresspal system which is located in mainland UK

CelticRambler

listermint wrote: »

Finally Ireland has negative relations with the EU? It's still there ? Most recent surveys conducted by red C have EU membership around 86 percent positivety rating yet you choose to look at the 14 percent as being indicative of how Ireland needs to be careful and we could do the absolute idiotic decision the UK has taken.

No lumen I'm afraid there's no basis for your arguments the facts simply don't back it up..it's very much thoughts and feelings , alas much like brexit in the first place.

A red C poll of Irish EU sentiment is no more "fact" than whatever went into the Brexit vote; that figure could change on a whim.

Lumen is right in pointing out how one should be mindful of a fickle public. I was one of those, back in the heady days of the Celtic Tiger, who said "There's something not right here ... these figures don't make sense." The vast majority of my family and friends in Ireland used all kinds of unicornist arguments to try to convince me that I was being unduly pessimistic. I ignored them, cashed out and went off to live a mortgage-free semi-retirement elsewhere in the EU. And a few years later had to listen to them railing against Merkel and the robber barons. Few appreciated my observation that they all willingly borrowed all they could from the "German banks" to bid against each other for an already over-valued 3-bed semi.

British or Irish (or American, or French, for that matter) the average voter rarely makes a direct connection between what they're experiencing now and who (or what) they voted for then; and has an impressive ability to believe that a ballot cast on the basis of slogans and tribal loyalty in the midst of an election campaign will somehow change things that were never changed before.

To a certain extent, I think the Irish electorate is being protected from itself by the very fact that it's Michel Barnier doing the negotiating in the name of the EU as a whole, and not anyone from Ireland trying to cobble together a bilateral agreement. Were it just the two islands at the table, there's more than enough evidence on this forum to indicate that there's a substantial cohort who would be willing to bend to the British demands for no reason other than to keep "our" British plugs and RHD cars.

Lumen

listermint wrote: »

I'd agree with you only you are attempting a complete wash over of what's going on at all levels of UK governance. The threats to Ireland were not from some random back bencher. They were from their foreign secretary. You know the person that sits at the cabinet table. The mouthing and anti EU stuff has come from their own brexit negotiator David Frost.

I'm really not attempting any such thing. The governance is a sh!itshow, and 58% of the UK population agrees that their government is handling the issue of Britain's exit from the EU badly.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-the-government-is-handling-the-issue-of-brexit-in-the-uk

The way I see it is that half of the population of the UK has been held hostage by a bunch of corrupt, inept scumbags, enabled by ignorant morons who voted for them. Half of the country were both EU citizens and quite happy with it.

What were the Remainer cohort supposed to do exactly? 90% of their friends and family agreed with them. The Brexiter voters largely kept their heads down and refused to engage in discussion. There was no convincing them.

listermint wrote: »

I resent the notion that the thread descends in to Brit bashing there isn't evidence of that it's just a handy trope to throw out when something that paints the UK political system in a bad light. Your comments are not merited by the content that's in this thread.

Your resentment is noted. I'm not going to bother dissecting specific posts as that'll take us down a rabbithole, you're obviously welcome to your opinion.

I'm just appealing for a bit of empathy.

The Raging Bile Duct

listermint wrote: »

I resent the notion that the thread descends in to Brit bashing there isn't evidence of that it's just a handy trope to throw out when something that paints the UK political system in a bad light. Your comments are not merited by the content that's in this thread..

In fairness, there's been a fair few Kevin Keeganesque 'I'd love it if they crashed out and suffered the consequences' type comments scattered throughout a lot of these threads.

listermint

CelticRambler wrote: »

:rolleyes: Note my non-accidental use of quotation marks ...

As Lumen pointed out: back then, there were plenty of Irish who were quite happy to make a lot of anti-German, anti-EU noise about "facts" that didn't stand up to scrutiny. Just because red C puts Irish support for the EU at 86% at the moment doesn't mean that some of the electorate won't blame the EU for Irish jobs being lost because Irish businesses failed to anticipate the destruction that a hard Brexit would wreak on their sector and make appropriate changes in good time to their supply chains and/or distribution and/or markets.

It's not a single pole. I'd urge you to go back and take a look at EU sentiment in this country as far as you wish. I think you'll find the figures back up my point.

A few people commenting on zee Germans and what not does not an argument make.

listermint

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

In fairness, there's been a fair few Kevin Keeganesque 'I'd love it if they crashed out and suffered the consequences' type comments scattered throughout a lot of these threads.

By fair few you mean scattered and very limited then yes you get that anywhere. I'd even argue it fits in the less than 14 Percent bracket.

As I said I resent the notion that this thread is anti Brit. It's a narrative and it's flawed. And it's a handy get out trope to use rather than discussing the topics with evidence. Very brexity tbh.

It's also the argument that the republican conservatives use on the US without basis. 'Ooo look everyone is against us we are ridiculously down trodden' ...for wealthy white people.

I often people we should let People 'own their ****' to use a term. Let's not forget the UK populace including labour regions voted back in a conservative nutty government with a majority . The populace does not get off lightly in owning this one.

That's not Brit bashing so let's put that in a box and close it

lawred2

listermint wrote: »

By fair few you mean scattered and very limited then yes you get that anywhere. I'd even argue it fits in the less than 14 Percent bracket.

As I said I stand by the notion that this thread is anti Brit. It's a narrative and it's flawed. And it's a handy get out trope to use rather than discussing the topics with evidence. Very brexity tbh

do you mean you stand against the notion that this thread is anti Brit?

Lumen

listermint wrote: »

As I said I stand by the notion that this thread is anti Brit. It's a narrative and it's flawed. And it's a handy get out trope to use rather than discussing the topics with evidence. Very brexity tbh

Ah here, that's a bit low.

What I said exactly was

Lumen wrote:

There's some great analysis on this thread but IMO it risks veering into Brit bashing

That's hardly saying the thread is anti Brit.

listermint

lawred2 wrote: »

do you mean you stand against the notion that this thread is anti Brit?

Edited my post. Bad wording.


I do yes. Because it's not. It's very anti UK government and its decisions and actions.

There's a narrative at play today and it appears to be blame everyone else . Why? Perplexing.

The Raging Bile Duct

What's the 'less than 14 percent bracket'?

listermint

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

What's the 'less than 14 percent bracket'?

Follow the posts.

listermint

Lumen wrote: »

I'm really not attempting any such thing. The governance is a sh!itshow, and 58% of the UK population agrees that their government is handling the issue of Britain's exit from the EU badly.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-the-government-is-handling-the-issue-of-brexit-in-the-uk

The way I see it is that half of the population of the UK has been held hostage by a bunch of corrupt, inept scumbags, enabled by ignorant morons who voted for them. Half of the country were both EU citizens and quite happy with it.

What were the Remainer cohort supposed to do exactly? 90% of their friends and family agreed with them. The Brexiter voters largely kept their heads down and refused to engage in discussion. There was no convincing them.


Your resentment is noted. I'm not going to bother dissecting specific posts as that'll take us down a rabbithole, you're obviously welcome to your opinion.

I'm just appealing for a bit of empathy.

Let's take the entirety of your post shall we and not snippet bits.

You mentioned various things pro UK and poor ignorant sods led down a path etc etc. Then in the same breath Ireland is filled with multinationals here to avoid tax.

I mean the whole theme of the post was very much anti Irish . If it wasn't for those foreign companies over here taking advantage of us 'thicks' we'd all be shouting like the UK population.

Your post is laced with between the lines narrative and thoughts and feelings.

As I said it's Very brexity. Perhaps read it back in its entirety the same was someone consuming it would.

Lumen

listermint wrote: »

Let's take the entirety of your post shall we and not snippet bits.

You mentioned various things pro UK and poor ignorant sods led down a path etc etc. Then in the same breath Ireland is filled with multinationals here to avoid tax.

I mean the whole theme of the post was very much anti Irish . If it wasn't for those foreign companies over here taking advantage of us 'thicks' we'd all be shouting like the UK population.

Your post is laced with between the lines narrative and thoughts and feelings.

As I said it's Very brexity. Perhaps read it back in its entirety the same was someone consuming it would.

OK look, it's possible we're just triggering each other.

I don't believe that the Irish people are thick or being taken advantage of by multinationals. On the contrary on both counts. The tiny slice that we take off the top in terms of corp tax, combined with the high quality tech sector jobs has an outsized benefit to our economy, and that makes me nervous in the long term lest we become too dependent on it, but I don't have a better economic masterplan, given that we're a small geographically isolated island still carrying the after effects of hundreds of years of foreign misrule and underinvestment.

There are people in Ireland (I supposed on what might be called the "hard left") who believe that the tax dodging by the multinationals is exploitative of the Irish, but I'm not one of them.

My point was that populist anti-everything bullsh!t is alive and well in Ireland. If you don't see it, good for you. I hope it stays at the level where it isn't seen much, because it grows like cancer. Does this really need evidencing? We're just coming out of four years of Trump.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Off topic posts deleted. Please take any off topic subjects to a new thread.

looksee

As to whether the thread is anti-Brit. I don't think, in general, it is. I am a Brit long living in Ireland and I agree with most of what is written here. It is anti- UK government and anti-Brexit, but that doesn't make it anti-Brit. The whole anti-Brit business has largely disappeared in the past 10 years or so. Of course there will always be fringes of people everywhere who will be anti-everything/xenophobic/racist etc, but the Brit-bashing in my experience has faded very significantly.

ancapailldorcha

looksee wrote: »

As to whether the thread is anti-Brit. I don't think, in general, it is. I am a Brit long living in Ireland and I agree with most of what is written here. It is anti- UK government and anti-Brexit, but that doesn't make it anti-Brit. The whole anti-Brit business has largely disappeared in the past 10 years or so. Of course there will always be fringes of people everywhere who will be anti-everything/xenophobic/racist etc, but the Brit-bashing in my experience has faded very significantly.

I'd be inclined to agree with this. I do despair a bit when I see comments desiring harm to the UK or expressing schadenfreude as Brexit was cinched on a threadbare margin of less than 5% but these comments tend to be few and far between.

CelticRambler

listermint wrote: »

It's not a single pole. I'd urge you to go back and take a look at EU sentiment in this country as far as you wish. I think you'll find the figures back up my point.

I'm not disputing that there is a large level of support for the EU in Ireland; I was merely pointing out that you challenged Lumen's argument with the statement "there's no basis for your arguments the facts simply don't back it up" and went on to back up this argument by citing a red C poll, which is by its very nature an assessment of feelings and sentiment, not fact. The questions asked by pollsters are almost always framed in that exact manner: "How do you feel about Ireland's membership of the EU - Strongly in favour, Mostly in favour, Not fussed either way ... "

So it is a fact that Ireland has done very well economically as a result of EU investment in our infrastructure; it is a fact that Irish businesses have done well as a result of our membership of the Single Market; it is a fact that Irish people have benefited enormously from Freedom of Movement. But Irish support for the EU is nothing more than a feeling arising from those facts; and a change in circumstances could very easily see a change in that feeling - it's the nature of that particular beast.

I believe there are many factors at work in Irish politics and Irish society in general that would tend to limit the anti-EU fallout of any change of circumstances, or - to put it another way - I think the UK has been particularly vulnerable to manipulative forces, resulting in the chaotic incompetence that's marked the whole Brexit story. But it would be foolish to assume that just because everything's been grand up to now, it'll be grand in the future (exhibit C: Coronavirus).

swampgas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'd be inclined to agree with this. I do despair a bit when I see comments desiring harm to the UK or expressing schadenfreude as Brexit was cinched on a threadbare margin of less than 5% but these comments tend to be few and far between.

I'd agree, however there is a part of me that wonders if a hard no-deal Brexit on Jan 1st might not be the best thing in the long run? A full reset, if you like, and then, when the UK know they are not going to get special treatment, start negotiating with the UK on a more realistic basis.

There is a delusional quality to Brexitmania, perhaps some time without any deal might focus minds? Although that's probably wishful thinking on my part.

That said, my preference is for damage limitation as far as possible, without compromising on the core principles of the EU itself.

ancapailldorcha

swampgas wrote: »

I'd agree, however there is a part of me that wonders if a hard no-deal Brexit on Jan 1st might not be the best thing in the long run? A full reset, if you like, and then, when the UK know they are not going to get special treatment, start negotiating with the UK on a more realistic basis.

There is a delusional quality to Brexitmania, perhaps some time without any deal might focus minds? Although that's probably wishful thinking on my part.

That said, my preference is for damage limitation as far as possible, without compromising on the core principles of the EU itself.

A no deal Brexit might be best but in the short term it would hurt a lot of people, many of whom did not vote for it, did and changed their minds, were prevented from voting one way or another and/or exporters to the UK from the EU.

The people pushing for this will be fine. Farage, Gove, Johnson & co aren't from the demographic which suffers from consequences very often if at all.

You say "Brexitmania" but I think that this is incorrect for the most part. I think a lot of the country just wants this done with in some form or another. I think that most people want some form of closure rather than Singapore-on-Thames or something out of an episode of Call The Midwife. I think that Brexit fatigue is a much more apt descriptor.

I'm inclined to think that some form of basic goods-only deal is the most likely outcome. The UK will still need it's new lorry parks in England's garden so there'll be delays of some kind but at least in January, we'll have some form of definition for Brexit and a Labour leader who looks electable.

swampgas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

A no deal Brexit might be best but in the short term it would hurt a lot of people, many of whom did not vote for it, did and changed their minds, were prevented from voting one way or another and/or exporters to the UK from the EU.

Agreed, but perhaps they would be hurt less in the long run with a no-deal in Jan for a few years. It's not a nice calculation to have to make.

The people pushing for this will be fine. Farage, Gove, Johnson & co aren't from the demographic which suffers from consequences very often if at all.

Agreed. It's unfortunate that FPTP gives these people so much undeserved influence.

You say "Brexitmania" but I think that this is incorrect for the most part. I think a lot of the country just wants this done with in some form or another. I think that most people want some form of closure rather than Singapore-on-Thames or something out of an episode of Call The Midwife. I think that Brexit fatigue is a much more apt descriptor.

I'm not so sure. The "just get it done" mentality is, to me, part of the delusion. The people want closure on something they don't understand. I get the impression that many in England are so disengaged from politics and feel so apathetic about the value of their vote that they just want the Brexit noise to stop, as if that will stop Brexit itself damaging their country and their lives.

I'm inclined to think that some form of basic goods-only deal is the most likely outcome. The UK will still need it's new lorry parks in England's garden so there'll be delays of some kind but at least in January, we'll have some form of definition for Brexit and a Labour leader who looks electable.

Time is very very tight now, and Johnson is not a reliable man. I still fear the UK is more likely to crash out through hubris and incompetence than it is to agree a deal at the last minute. The die-hards are in control, and as you pointed out earlier, they are insulated from the worst effects of a no-deal exit. They also have the proven ability to spin such a no-deal exit as a win for the UK, and are likely to be backed by quite a few newspapers if they do so.

ancapailldorcha

swampgas wrote: »

Agreed, but perhaps they would be hurt less in the long run with a no-deal in Jan for a few years. It's not a nice calculation to have to make.

Agreed. It's unfortunate that FPTP gives these people so much undeserved influence.

It's not really FPTP. Ironically, if there was a PM with more backbone, he could just as easily show them the door and replace them with more servile or pliant candidates. Instead, we got Brexit.

Ironically, a PR system would hand them more influence if anything but I do think FPTP needs to go at some point.

swampgas wrote: »

I'm not so sure. The "just get it done" mentality is, to me, part of the delusion. The people want closure on something they don't understand. I get the impression that many in England are so disengaged from politics and feel so apathetic about the value of their vote that they just want the Brexit noise to stop, as if that will stop Brexit itself damaging their country and their lives.

True and because both attitudes lead to the same destination then the distinction becomes somewhat meaningless but I do think that it merits noting. Being disengaged is sadly a consequence of FPTP but it has always been thus.

swampgas wrote: »

Time is very very tight now, and Johnson is not a reliable man. I still fear the UK is more likely to crash out through hubris and incompetence than it is to agree a deal at the last minute. The die-hards are in control, and as you pointed out earlier, they are insulated from the worst effects of a no-deal exit. They also have the proven ability to spin such a no-deal exit as a win for the UK and are likely to be backed by quite a few newspapers if they do so.

I don't think he is a die-hard. He got some appalling news when Joe Biden was elected President. I think he's someone who'll take the easiest way out 100% of the time. He's now boxed in with no international allies to speak of.

I disagree with the latter part of your post. In 2016, the tabloids were able to dress Brexit up as all things to all men. Now, the unicorn is getting carved up and no amount of fantasy is going to cover up for job losses, delays and an artificial, unnecessary recession. They might be able to spin it as a win for Shire pensioners and other zealous Brexiters but for most of the population this will be insufficient when Brexit turns out to be far short of the utopia they were promised.

swampgas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's not really FPTP. Ironically, if there was a PM with more backbone, he could just as easily show them the door and replace them with more servile or pliant candidates. Instead, we got Brexit.

Fair point, Johnson's weakness of character has been a major factor for decades.

I don't think he is a die-hard. He got some appalling news when Joe Biden was elected President. I think he's someone who'll take the easiest way out 100% of the time. He's now boxed in with no international allies to speak of.

I disagree with the latter part of your post. In 2016, the tabloids were able to dress Brexit up as all things to all men. Now, the unicorn is getting carved up and no amount of fantasy is going to cover up for job losses, delays and an artificial, unnecessary recession. They might be able to spin it as a win for Shire pensioners and other zealous Brexiters but for most of the population this will be insufficient when Brexit turns out to be far short of the utopia they were promised.

They may not succeed in the long term but may be willing to attempt the spin regardless. Ultimately the point will come where Brexit will be exposed as a terrible mistake, and the architects of Brexit will do anything and everything rather than admit to it. They have lied and spun and dissembled all the way through, I can't see them changing their tactics now. They may be tempted to gamble on no-deal and their ability to sell it, rather than face the shame of having to admit the magnitude of their error.

ancapailldorcha

swampgas wrote: »

Fair point, Johnson's weakness of character has been a major factor for decades.

They may not succeed in the long term but may be willing to attempt the spin regardless. Ultimately the point will come where Brexit will be exposed as a terrible mistake, and the architects of Brexit will do anything and everything rather than admit to it. They have lied and spun and dissembled all the way through, I can't see them changing their tactics now. They may be tempted to gamble on no-deal and their ability to sell it, rather than face the shame of having to admit the magnitude of their error.

I don't know. They do seem to be genuinely unsettled by Starmer after having had the luxury of Jeremy Corbyn reading out letters at the dispatch box.

You're overestimating both the British public's desire and capacity to swallow their tripe and their love for the Tory party here. The Conservatives consistently fail to win a majority of the popular vote. They are only there because of FPTP. If people feel in tangible ways that their lives are getting worse then that's going to be impossible to spin. I also think the tabloids are going to lose readers if they decide to continue to be the propaganda arm of the government.