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Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)
Comments
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ancapailldorcha wrote: »Failing to secure a deal after touting his oven-ready one a year ago would lose him a lot more face IMO.
Not without giving way on so many issues, I think it is over, waiting till the last minute expecting the eu to cave is not going to work , I see the eu are preparing to decommission the fleet that have been using UK waters, one side are preparing for no deal, I hope there are plenty of ferries lined up to go direct to France as it won't be an option to go via the UK for 6 months, if you eventually get through your lorry could be burnt on the French side.0 -
Tom Newton Dunn earlier tweeted:Is a Brexit trade deal imminent? Big push back from No10 today on suggestions. Senior folk in Brussels as well as SW1 also don't think so, because the politics aren't quite right yet. Why? Because Dom Cummings' departure has actually made it harder for the PM to compromise.
...and compromise is what both sides still need to do. Figures close to the PM are nervous about Boris being painted as selling out, especially by Cummings, so want more time to pass. Week 1 or 2 in December now seen as most likely
..when there will still be JUST enough time to ratify it - 2 weeks needed by UK/Euro parliaments. But, it may fall even later than that, Jan or Feb. Emergency measures being quietly prepared now to keep trade flowing as long as a deal is in sight.
I can see a situation where things stretch on and on, and a series of emergency measures have to be brought in, and ERG types cite this as evidence that Brussels can do a series of specific measures if they wish, and that the previous structured talks were a mistake.0 -
Potentially over a barrel?I was under the impression reading the majority of posts here over the last few months the UK would have been pleading for mercy and scraps from the table by now...still waiting though.0
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declanflynn wrote: »Reports coming in that the uk are about to cave in to the EU, fair play to the uk for playing the game of chicken for so long
I thought it was an oven ready Turkey, not an oven ready chicken.0 -
Leave voters should watch newsnight on BBC now, its about the hundreds of local programmes throughout little England funded by the EU which will be scrapped when they leave0
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Sam Russell wrote: »I thought it was an oven ready Turkey, not an oven ready chicken.0
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Widdensushi wrote: »Not without giving way on so many issues, I think it is over, waiting till the last minute expecting the eu to cave is not going to work , I see the eu are preparing to decommission the fleet that have been using UK waters, one side are preparing for no deal, I hope there are plenty of ferries lined up to go direct to France as it won't be an option to go via the UK for 6 months, if you eventually get through your lorry could be burnt on the French side.
I think most of the public are well past caring at this stage. Sovereignty is too nebulous and abstract a concept for people to get worked up about it over 4 years later. Immigration is an easier one since the UK has already left and it's going to come down but again, I think the public are past getting excited about that issue as well and the people who'll lose the most from ceding their rights to free movement tend not to vote as much or as reliably as their older, more conservative peers.The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.
Leviticus 19:34
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Widdensushi wrote: »Not without giving way on so many issues, I think it is over, waiting till the last minute expecting the eu to cave is not going to work , I see the eu are preparing to decommission the fleet that have been using UK waters, one side are preparing for no deal, I hope there are plenty of ferries lined up to go direct to France as it won't be an option to go via the UK for 6 months, if you eventually get through your lorry could be burnt on the French side.
New routes being setup but businesses complaining
And yes there are lots of long distance car ferries crossing the Mediterranean and it's off season so bound to be some spare capacity.
Meanwhile the UK is stockpiling so their ferries are busy. One ship had to be diverted to Rotterdam because there wasn't space to unload.0 -
Interestingly, today 60% of the UK public have a favourable view of the EU. This is the highest ever since polls began 17 years ago.
When you drill down into the figures, there are some expected results. 71% of people aged 18-29 view the EU favourably whereas 49% of people over 50 view the EU favourably. A 29% difference exists between those who identify as left versus right. There is a also a 21% difference between those who have a post-secondary education and those without. So one can only conclude that older, less educated, right wing people in Britain dislike the EU. Who'd have thunk it?0 -
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declanflynn wrote: »Leave voters should watch newsnight on BBC now, its about the hundreds of local programmes throughout little England funded by the EU which will be scrapped when they leave
Most of the public have been bored by Brexit and just want it to end.
NEWSFLASH Brexit hasn't even begun. January is when it all kicks off. There'll be lots of incredulous people blindsided by it.0 -
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Capt'n Midnight wrote: »Fishing boats can go to other places. And the EU don't own the boats. Do you have a link ?
No they can't, much of the eu fleet fishes predominantly in UK waters, if that is not an option moving hundreds of boats to other waters(mainly Ireland as that is the largest waters left) would leave to overfishing and collapse of stocks there. The eu can fund a large scale decommissioning program, I don't have a link, I was told it by a reliable person in the industry which obviously won't hold up here but imo it's good to see one side is making real preparations for a hard brexit.0 -
Disagree.ancapailldorcha wrote: »I think most of the public are well past caring at this stage. Sovereignty is too nebulous and abstract a concept for people to get worked up about it over 4 years later.
There are many people absolutely horrified at the idea that laws are being made out foreign that constrain the UK. The UK should be free in all ways to do whatever it wants. They won't be convinced otherwise. Two world wars etc. etc.
We should not underestimate the lurch to nationalism and the right which underpinned the success of the Brexit/ Trump narratives. These were unbelievably succesful strategies amongst lower socio-economic groups, mostly against their own best interests.ancapailldorcha wrote: »IImmigration is an easier one since the UK has already left and it's going to come down
It's a red herring, it's bollocks, and immigration won't be coming down. t's trading EU immigrants (largely, white, European Christians) for dark skinned foreigners from even more foreign with foreign religions and foreign languages.
For many Brexiteers, they just don't want to see Indian, Pakistani, Chinese or any other foreign people. They see it that these people are diluting British culture, taking their jobs and welfare, creating ghettos and grooming their children.
For many, they never understood that 'ending free movement' did not mean 'no more foreigners', it meant no more free movement for EU nationals. For most, they dont know or understand that non-EU immigration control was always in the UK's gift. It's just ignorance.ancapailldorcha wrote: »Ibut again, I think the public are past getting excited about that issue as well and the people who'll lose the most from ceding their rights to free movement tend not to vote as much or as reliably as their older, more conservative peers.
I think it's a mistake to think this way. Look at those in the States still protesting and rallying for Trump. These people just don't get it at all. They will continue to get excited by this, particularly if/ when they feel cheated. Even more so when you bear in mind that the UK is full of tabloids (Daily Mail, Sun, Telegraph etc) that like maliciously press these issues, and there are plenty of high profile politicians and public figures who will do the same (Farage and his ilk, ERG type Tories, Tim Martin/ Dyson/ Alan Sugar type public figures).
The older type have been shown to be conservative (even in Scottish independence vote e.g.), but we shouldn't underestimate the development of a nasty nationalist, right sentiment among the young, especially in areas where they are totally disenfranchised and see little chance for advancement. They are blaming outside forces for their predicament as they have been encouraged to do so.
In my view, you are being very generous in your assessment.0 -
J Mysterio wrote: »Disagree.
There are many people absolutely horrified at the idea that laws are being made out foreign that constrain the UK. The UK should be free in all ways to do whatever it wants. They won't be convinced otherwise. Two world wars etc. etc.
We should not underestimate the lurch to nationalism and the right which underpinned the success of the Brexit/ Trump narratives. These were unbelievably succesful strategies amongst lower socio-economic groups, mostly against their own best interests.
It's a red herring, it's bollocks, and immigration won't be coming down. t's trading EU immigrants (largely, white, European Christians) for dark skinned foreigners from even more foreign with foreign religions and foreign languages.
For many Brexiteers, they just don't want to see Indian, Pakistani, Chinese or any other foreign people. They see it that these people are diluting British culture, taking their jobs and welfare, creating ghettos and grooming their children.
For many, they never understood that 'ending free movement' did not mean 'no more foreigners', it meant no more free movement for EU nationals. For most, they dont know or understand that non-EU immigration control was always in the UK's gift. It's just ignorance.
I think it's a mistake to think this way. Look at those in the States still protesting and rallying for Trump. These people just don't get it at all. They will continue to get excited by this, particularly if/ when they feel cheated. Even more so when you bear in mind that the UK is full of tabloids (Daily Mail, Sun, Telegraph etc) that like maliciously press these issues, and there are plenty of high profile politicians and public figures who will do the same (Farage and his ilk, ERG type Tories, Tim Martin/ Dyson/ Alan Sugar type public figures).
The older type have been shown to be conservative (even in Scottish independence vote e.g.), but we shouldn't underestimate the development of a nasty nationalist, right sentiment among the young, especially in areas where they are totally disenfranchised and see little chance for advancement. They are blaming outside forces for their predicament as they have been encouraged to do so.
In my view, you are being very generous in your assessment.
this always seemed obvious to me and i could never understand the brexiteer mentality that could not grasp that, what they would end up with more immigration from people that seemed even more ''foreign''.
but i had it explained to me by an english person that seemed to have their finger on the pulse, but it is only 1 persons version, nothing more.
a certain section of the english public see European immigration as a much greater threat to there sense of pride than ''commonwealth'' immigration.
a white European comes in works hard and does well, he looks like you his kids cant be distinguished from yours he cant be pigeon holed he cant be condescended to in the same manner as the previous generation of immigrants.
he comes and goes from his home country often pointing out how it is in many ways better than britan.
its not like the old days where the immigrants knew their place stuck to their areas and did the cooking and cleaning.
in the past immigration made the average working class Brit feel superior to the immigrants in question
now it feels like the opposite. so the though of getting rid of the uppity poles and replacing they with some dirt poor uneducated and adequately subservient dark skinned people has an appeal to it.
i know this post feels very condescending of the attitude of certain english people to others and as someone who has live and worked in England and loves a lot about the place i dont for one second think it reflects the feelings of a majority but i do think there may be some truth in it.0 -
farmchoice wrote: »this always seemed obvious to me and i could never understand the brexiteer mentality that could not grasp that, what they would end up with more immigration from people that seemed even more ''foreign''.
but i had it explained to me by an english person that seemed to have their finger on the pulse, but it is only 1 persons version, nothing more.
a certain section of the english public see European immigration as a much greater threat to there sense of pride than ''commonwealth'' immigration.
a white European comes in works hard and does well, he looks like you his kids cant be distinguished from yours he cant be pigeon holed he cant be condescended to in the same manner as the previous generation of immigrants.
he comes and goes from his home country often pointing out how it is in many ways better than britan.
its not like the old days where the immigrants knew their place stuck to their areas and did the cooking and cleaning.
in the past immigration made the average working class Brit feel superior to the immigrants in question
now it feels like the opposite. so the though of getting rid of the uppity poles and replacing they with some dirt poor uneducated and adequately subservient dark skinned people has an appeal to it.
i know this post feels very condescending of the attitude of certain English people to others and as someone who has live and worked in England and loves a lot about the place i don't for one second think it reflects the feelings of a majority but i do think there may be some truth in it.
However, the point about the "dark skinned people" does not ring true, as these days there are a large number who are NOT subservient in any way. In many cities their numbers have increased to the point that they are becoming dominant in some districts of the towns.
From a Brexit perspective this is a complete misfire for Brexiteers, as the employers are bringing then in as fast as possible.0 -
Trying to rationalise racism/xenophobia is pointless. It's basic tribalism with a veneer of reverse-engineered logic which doesn't stand up to any scrutiny.
Remember they have Boris "letterbox" Johnson at the helm.0 -
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Trying to rationalise racism/xenophobia is pointless. It's basic tribalism with a veneer of reverse-engineered logic which doesn't stand up to any scrutiny.
Remember they have Boris "letterbox" Johnson at the helm.
And just look at who they have as Chancellor of the Exchequer, Home Secretary, Mayor of London. These are all immigrant stock who have done well and risen to dizzy heights of officialdom. And this is not just in Tory-land but all across society.
I think England is a long way down the road of a multicultural society - just have a look at who reads the news, who is shown in adverts, who are the actors in dramas.
Those who long for a return of the glory days when Britain ruled the waves and the glorious success of Dunkirk, are hopelessly behind the times, and England must take its place among the (third division) nations of the world. I think this has already happened because of Brexit.0 -
Professor Moriarty wrote: »Interestingly, today 60% of the UK public have a favourable view of the EU. This is the highest ever since polls began 17 years ago.
When you drill down into the figures, there are some expected results. 71% of people aged 18-29 view the EU favourably whereas 49% of people over 50 view the EU favourably. A 29% difference exists between those who identify as left versus right. There is a also a 21% difference between those who have a post-secondary education and those without. So one can only conclude that older, less educated, right wing people in Britain dislike the EU. Who'd have thunk it?
I think it's interesting to note that when thatcher was in power she attracted more of the youth vote than labour. Last time around somewhere in excess of 70% of under 30s voted labour or other opposition parties. So yes, it is definitely about education, but it is about more than that too. The generational divide in the uk is very stark right now, much more so than the US if the presidential election trends are any guide.0 -
Sam Russell wrote: »And just look at who they have as Chancellor of the Exchequer, Home Secretary, Mayor of London. These are all immigrant stock who have done well and risen to dizzy heights of officialdom. And this is not just in Tory-land but all across society.
I think England is a long way down the road of a multicultural society - just have a look at who reads the news, who is shown in adverts, who are the actors in dramas.
Those who long for a return of the glory days when Britain ruled the waves and the glorious success of Dunkirk, are hopelessly behind the times, and England must take its place among the (third division) nations of the world. I think this has already happened because of Brexit.
64 years ago at the time of the Suez Canal crisis, Britain was shown in no uncertain terms its place in world power.
World war 2 a decade previous starkly demonstrated the crumbling of their empire.
It is incredulous that they honestly believe they can strong arm the EU to succumb to their will in 2020.
Virtually nobody alive in Britain today has any memory of a time when they were a true superpower0 -
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J Mysterio wrote: »There are many people absolutely horrified at the idea that laws are being made out foreign that constrain the UK. The UK should be free in all ways to do whatever it wants. They won't be convinced otherwise. Two world wars etc. etc.
Depends on what you mean by "many" and "horrified". People can and will moan but it's part and parcel of the modern work where you're bound by treaties, conventions and international law. People never seem to moan about NATO, the special relationship, the UN, etc...
They won't be convinced, sure but they're more noisy than numerous. Remember, Brexit was sold as all things to all men and now it's looking like a much less enticing prospect. What are they going to do, anyway? Vote Labour? UKIP took an eighth of the vote in 2015 and were rewarded with a single MP. In FPTP, you need to hit 25% to make gains. Anything below that is a waste.J Mysterio wrote: »We should not underestimate the lurch to nationalism and the right which underpinned the success of the Brexit/ Trump narratives. These were unbelievably succesful strategies amongst lower socio-economic groups, mostly against their own best interests.
Of course, but we also should note that covid has made the scales fall from many people's eyes. The populists have lost their main ally in the White House who presided over hundreds of thousands of people dying from covid.J Mysterio wrote: »It's a red herring, it's bollocks, and immigration won't be coming down. t's trading EU immigrants (largely, white, European Christians) for dark skinned foreigners from even more foreign with foreign religions and foreign languages.
For many Brexiteers, they just don't want to see Indian, Pakistani, Chinese or any other foreign people. They see it that these people are diluting British culture, taking their jobs and welfare, creating ghettos and grooming their children.
For many, they never understood that 'ending free movement' did not mean 'no more foreigners', it meant no more free movement for EU nationals. For most, they dont know or understand that non-EU immigration control was always in the UK's gift. It's just ignorance.
I know and wouldn't have claimed otherwise. However, that's their problem. They voted in populists and xenophobes and now they must live with the consequences as they either allow in much more "foreign" people or watch businesses collapse.
Of course it's ignorance but if they want to vote Leave to return England to resembling something out of an Enid Blyton novel then they're entitled to do so. They're not entitled to have reality warp itself to this end, however.J Mysterio wrote: »I think it's a mistake to think this way. Look at those in the States still protesting and rallying for Trump. These people just don't get it at all. They will continue to get excited by this, particularly if/ when they feel cheated. Even more so when you bear in mind that the UK is full of tabloids (Daily Mail, Sun, Telegraph etc) that like maliciously press these issues, and there are plenty of high profile politicians and public figures who will do the same (Farage and his ilk, ERG type Tories, Tim Martin/ Dyson/ Alan Sugar type public figures).
The older type have been shown to be conservative (even in Scottish independence vote e.g.), but we shouldn't underestimate the development of a nasty nationalist, right sentiment among the young, especially in areas where they are totally disenfranchised and see little chance for advancement. They are blaming outside forces for their predicament as they have been encouraged to do so.
In my view, you are being very generous in your assessment.
I'm going to disagree here. Why the UK may resemble the US more than any other European nation, it is not the US. Johnson for all his flaws has only shown support for vaccination and his government were shovelling cash at the Oxford Vaccine Group from the get-go according to Cath Green who runs their manufacturing facility.
You cite tabloids but these are a dying force. Recall that it's been the best part of century since one party won a majority of the vote. They'll moan and moan but it has always been thus. It'll be too late but their power to shape the mindsets of people here is waning.The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.
Leviticus 19:34
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J Mysterio wrote: »For many, they never understood that 'ending free movement' did not mean 'no more foreigners', it meant no more free movement for EU nationals. For most, they dont know or understand that non-EU immigration control was always in the UK's gift. It's just ignorance.
Yes.
I can't understand this.
Surely people know that the presence of Poles, Latvians, etc. is due to the EU Single Market.
But surely people also know that Indians / Africans in the UK are due to UK policy, and are nothing to do with the EU?
It's not too much to expect that voters should know that, surely???0 -
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Joe_ Public wrote: »I think it's interesting to note that when thatcher was in power she attracted more of the youth vote than labour. Last time around somewhere in excess of 70% of under 30s voted labour or other opposition parties. So yes, it is definitely about education, but it is about more than that too. The generational divide in the uk is very stark right now, much more so than the US if the presidential election trends are any guide.
But Margaret Thatcher wrecked the British economy, and put huge numbers out of work, sold off council houses and never replaced them causing a perennial housing shortage that continues to this day. As a result, house prices have continued rise many times beyond CPI, and has caused significant poverty in Britain. The gift that kept on giving to the politicians.
Manufacturing more or less disappeared and the British economy moved from industrial power house to selling securities and derivatives to each other and other dodgy dealings - always chasing the quick buck.
But she went to war to win the next election and to defend South Georgia and the Falklands Islands (wherever they are) - the last outposts of Empire. Jingoism at its best, and right wing populism at its worst.
Those who backed MT are now retired and voted Leave and wear a red poppy at this time of year. They remember the Dunkirk spirit and how good it was (well they only remember the old ones reminiscing about it).0 -
farmchoice wrote: »
a certain section of the english public see European immigration as a much greater threat to there sense of pride than ''commonwealth'' immigration.
a white European comes in works hard and does well, he looks like you his kids cant be distinguished from yours he cant be pigeon holed he cant be condescended to in the same manner as the previous generation of immigrants.
he comes and goes from his home country often pointing out how it is in many ways better than britan.
its not like the old days where the immigrants knew their place stuck to their areas and did the cooking and cleaning.
in the past immigration made the average working class Brit feel superior to the immigrants in question
now it feels like the opposite. so the though of getting rid of the uppity poles and replacing they with some dirt poor uneducated and adequately subservient dark skinned people has an appeal to it.
Could this line of thought really be true, really be common?
Surely there are loads of successful Asian immigrants, that would go against this line of thinking?0 -
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Could this line of thought really be true, really be common?
Surely there are loads of successful Asian immigrants, that would go against this line of thinking?
There's an element of YMMV to this. More successful immigrants will concentrate in cities because that's where the jobs will be and people tend to me more liberal or tolerant.
When I was living in Manchester, I heard about a family who were hounded out of a northern town for the crime of setting up a curry restaurant. A doctor at work told me of how she was glared at by a whole train of people when she was in Leeds for work. Even here, my landlord moved an older English chap into the flat. He lasted less than two weeks. One day he got drunk and told our very pleasant Asian neighbours to go back to where they had come from.
It never occurred to me before but it doesn't surprise me in the least.The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.
Leviticus 19:34
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Sister UK office of ours moving hundreds of jobs out of London into the EU. Seems this was behind the scenes for the wider org but very much front and centre for the office involved. Another case of a major loss for the UK. This centre simply cant exist in a no deal scenario. Millions now poured into the new office in the EU. Some transfers over but full steam ahead on hiring in new location.
Still so much win in Brexit. The Tories are a hateful bunch of people , absolutely abysmal bunch.
I only wonder how many hundreds of large companies are taking the same actions behind the scenes. None of this in the main news.0 -
We've seen Brexit own goals, and know of many to come...
...but this one will take some beating: U.K. companies are turning to cheaper overseas labor to complete their post-Brexit customs paperwork, creating jobs in countries such as Romania and India due to a shortage of trained staff in Britain.0 -
listermint wrote: »Sister UK office of ours moving hundreds of jobs out of London into the EU. Seems this was behind the scenes for the wider org but very much front and centre for the office involved. Another case of a major loss for the UK. This centre simply cant exist in a no deal scenario. Millions now poured into the new office in the EU. Some transfers over but full steam ahead on hiring in new location.
Still so much win in Brexit. The Tories are a hateful bunch of people , absolutely abysmal bunch.
I only wonder how many hundreds of large companies are taking the same actions behind the scenes. None of this in the main news.
I keep reading stories like these in other discussion forums and in the FT. The UK "media" aren't reporting any of it (perhaps to do so would be seen as being critical of Brexit, which is verboten in any newspaper outside of The Guardian and FT).0 -
listermint wrote: »<...>
I only wonder how many hundreds of large companies are taking the same actions behind the scenes. None of this in the main news
A little more withdrawal and post-withdrawal water needs to run under British bridges yet, before that sort of public introspection can start in the British MSM.
It's good business for Ireland and the rest of the EU27 in the meantime, so just keep quiet and carry on hoovering up the skilled jobs.0 -
We've seen Brexit own goals, and know of many to come...
...but this one will take some beating: U.K. companies are turning to cheaper overseas labor to complete their post-Brexit customs paperwork, creating jobs in countries such as Romania and India due to a shortage of trained staff in Britain.0 -
Trying to rationalise racism/xenophobia is pointless. It's basic tribalism with a veneer of reverse-engineered logic which doesn't stand up to any scrutiny.
Remember they have Boris "letterbox" Johnson at the helm.
English xenophobia is an interesting phenomenon. They basically don't like anyone who doesn't speak English as a first language. Therefore US, Canada, Aus, NZ, SA and Ireland are OK. But anyone from the continental EU are "foreigners" and "not like us". Totally nuts and illogical of course.....why on earth would they feel closer to a Canadian than a Frenchman or Dutchman?
I should stress I'm not talking about all English people, just the hardcore Tory / UKIP / Leave voter types.0 -
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We've seen Brexit own goals, and know of many to come...
...but this one will take some beating: U.K. companies are turning to cheaper overseas labor to complete their post-Brexit customs paperwork, creating jobs in countries such as Romania and India due to a shortage of trained staff in Britain.
Great find. I think privatisation of public services/national interests in Britain has also been a factor in Brexiteers voting for Brexit, percieving it to somehow be an EU issue.
Britain privatising its trains, prisons and now border paperwork I think actually has the opposite effect on jobs, and doesn't save any money.
For example, if this paperwork wasn't privatised and cost the govt (random figure) 1bn a year. But a company is offering to do it for 500million. It looks like on paper, 500 million is saved.
But instead of public servants, earning 40k a year, much of which is clawed back through income tax, vat, income tax from jobs created as money is spent in the local economy, all the money goes to people abroad, and the profit goes to the company.
Same with the prison service. It used to be a good job. Now some prisons are run by G4S with people on 11quid an hour. They've less disposable income to spend locally, they're generally lower skilled and immigrant backgrounds. People perceive this as "immigrants taking our jobs" but in reality, it's a former 40k pa job, being privatised for 20k per annum, and the profit being sucked up by a private company.
There's less money circulating within local economies, particularly in Northern England. Money that was previously government funded salaries, but at least was returned to the local economy through income tax, vat, domestic demand, people being able to afford to buy things. Rather than doing the same job earning far lower, renting a bedroom and trying to scrape by.
I'm all for capitalism and competition. But business should thrive on innovation. I don't think essential public services should be sold off on a tender, to one business, who's function is to suck that money away for shareholders.0
This discussion has been closed.
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