Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Winters

20silkcut wrote: »

The whole brexit/trump phase has really highlighted the malleability of truth and facts and how such truth and facts can be completely obliterated in the face of fanaticism.

This was also starkly highlighted in the run up to the invasion of Iraq 2003 ,where no matter what facts or truth were presented , George W Bush was taking down saddam hussein , nothing was going to stop that happening. I’m sure most people remember the ridiculous fabrications concocted at that time about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. I have vague memories of saddam husseins refrigerator being checked for WMDs. It was all bull**** and we knew months in advance before a shot was fired in that war that it was all bull****.

This reminds me of the line from the Chernobyl miniseries

Every Lie We Tell Incurs a Debt to the Truth

All the Brexit lies might work on getting votes and selling papers but when it comes to signing International treaties and filling out customs forms the lies will mean nothing and any fudges will only get so far.

Shelga

I thought today was meant to be the final day of reckoning, yet there’s nothing about Brexit on RTor BBC websites? Will we know within a day or two whether there is to be a deal?

20silkcut

Winters wrote: »

This reminds me of the line from the Chernobyl miniseries



All the Brexit lies might work on getting votes and selling papers but when it comes to signing International treaties and filling out customs forms the lies will mean nothing and any fudges will only get so far.

And America and the world is paying dearly for the debt to the truth for the Iraq war.

And we will all pay the debt for brexit.

One thing for sure though is political will trumps truth and facts and logic. That has always been the case and, more than likely, always will.

Sam Russell

Shelga wrote: »

I thought today was meant to be the final day of reckoning, yet there’s nothing about Brexit on RTor BBC websites? Will we know within a day or two whether there is to be a deal?

No-one has blinked.

There is talk of a deal but no details. There is talk of a temporary little arrangement where the current rules are allowed to continue while the deal that will be agreed after someone blinks is ratified by all in Jan. This would be contrary to EU law, but there you go.

Enzokk

Shelga wrote: »

I thought today was meant to be the final day of reckoning, yet there’s nothing about Brexit on RTor BBC websites? Will we know within a day or two whether there is to be a deal?

Heard on the old Remainiacs podcast (now called, Oh God, What Now?) that the real deadline is 28 December. My guess is the deadline this week is for a FTA to be approved by the European Parliament in time for 31 December. But if there is no deal the deadlines change a little, they will go on negotiating and if a deal is done they can have a temporary arrangement until the deal can be ratified as Sam has posted.

So to get a permanent FTA done in time before the transition ends the deadline is looming, but a deal can still be done later and a legal mechanism will need to be enacted to give time for the deal to be ratified after transition. But if they miss the first deadline then a deal needs to be agreed in the remaining time.

Seth Brundle

Well AFAIK Macron wants a copy of any agreement in French before he will vote for it. Dec 28th isn't giving the translators much time.

Sam Russell

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Well AFAIK Macron wants a copy of any agreement in French before he will vote for it. Dec 28th isn't giving the translators much time.

Let us hope the Estonians or Finns are not so picky.

Shelga

Enzokk wrote: »

Heard on the old Remainiacs podcast (now called, Oh God, What Now?) that the real deadline is 28 December. My guess is the deadline this week is for a FTA to be approved by the European Parliament in time for 31 December. But if there is no deal the deadlines change a little, they will go on negotiating and if a deal is done they can have a temporary arrangement until the deal can be ratified as Sam has posted.

So to get a permanent FTA done in time before the transition ends the deadline is looming, but a deal can still be done later and a legal mechanism will need to be enacted to give time for the deal to be ratified after transition. But if they miss the first deadline then a deal needs to be agreed in the remaining time.

Will they get a mini extension of the transition period on January 1st, or would there still be chaos for a couple of months while the deal is ratified?

Enzokk

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Well AFAIK Macron wants a copy of any agreement in French before he will vote for it. Dec 28th isn't giving the translators much time.

That deadline seems to be along the lines of GATT 24, where temporary arrangements can be agreed if a deal is agreed but not ratified. The difference obviously between this and how Brexiters was trying to use GATT article 24 is that a deal would be agreed between the 2 parties.

Macron would still get time to read the deal in French but a temporary extension of the transition would be agreed on the back of the deal to give him the time to study it. He can still decline the deal, no-deal would then be after the temporary extension unless a new deal is then agreed.

At least that is how I understand it.

Enzokk

Shelga wrote: »

Will they get a mini extension of the transition period on January 1st, or would there still be chaos for a couple of months while the deal is ratified?

Again I am speculating after listening to the podcast, but if a deal is agreed it needs to be done by 28 December to allow time to get this extension. That would allow the EU time to ensure there is an extension for the deal to be ratified without the chaos.

It makes sense, if there is a deal why have chaos when you only need to ratify? Worst case you push out the chaos a few months if there is opposition within the EU to the deal, but at least you give the deal a chance which is what we want.

Sam Russell

Enzokk wrote: »

Again I am speculating after listening to the podcast, but if a deal is agreed it needs to be done by 28 December to allow time to get this extension. That would allow the EU time to ensure there is an extension for the deal to be ratified without the chaos.

It makes sense, if there is a deal why have chaos when you only need to ratify? Worst case you push out the chaos a few months if there is opposition within the EU to the deal, but at least you give the deal a chance which is what we want.

It depends on who blinks.

Enzokk

Sam Russell wrote: »

It depends on who blinks.

Agreed, at the moment it seems we are still stuck on those 3 items that have been a problem since the start.

EU's Barnier says "fundamental differences" persist in UK trade talks

The European Union’s Brexit negotiator said on Monday “fundamental differences” persisted in trade talks with Britain but that both sides were pushing hard for a deal.

“After technical discussions this weekend, negotiations continue online today... Time is short. Fundamental divergences still remain, but we are continuing to work hard for a deal,” said the EU negotiator, Michel Barnier.

trellheim

I don't get any sense there of a way forward. Negotiation does mean each side giving up something.

Leroy42

trellheim wrote: »

I don't get any sense there of a way forward. Negotiation does mean each side giving up something.

There is a way forward, it just depends on when the UK realise the true nature of the situation.

They finally got it last year when Johnson agreed to the WA. And that is the cliff edge that is over hanging all of this.

THe UK media, and certainly the government, seem to be taking the line that if no deal is agreed then it is a full on No Deal. But that is not the case. No agreement now just means that the WA comes into full effect but the UK got nothing in terms of a trade deal in return.

They will have signed off a massive international agreement and achieved the sum total of nothing in return for it. The EU will have protected itself, in as much as it could, and the U is now faced with endless legal threats, tariffs, and other reprecussions.

The UK have a pretty big hole to try to get out of here. Have they really signed away NI, and their continued requirement to ensure that NI follow all current and future EU regulations, on ended up with nothing? Have they really agreed to the full payment of the financial obligations and got nothing in return?

No walk away like that would, in time, be considered as one of the greatest missteps by a PM in history.

trellheim

I don't get any sense there of a way forward. Negotiation does mean each side giving up something.

In truth all I was doing was doing was looking at the specific wording Barnier was using as it is coded.

ambro25

Hearsay-grade, but a Nissan plant manager is quoted in AutomobilWoche, that Nissan "made a decision about Sunderland and it's not a good one for the UK". Check out @NickGibbs feed for a screenshot.

Sam Russell

trellheim wrote: »

In truth all I was doing was doing was looking at the specific wording Barnier was using as it is coded.

I cannot see the EU agreeing to leave the IMB with the clauses that break the WA and the GFA become law. That is a minimum that will have serious effects on a future arrangements (if any).

Fishing will sort itself out - the fish will swim, and those caught by the UK boats will rot on the quayside.

Without a deal, the rest will become a long term sore that will fester. The UK will lose out bigly.

murphaph

ambro25 wrote: »

Hearsay-grade, but a Nissan plant manager is quoted in AutomobilWoche, that Nissan "made a decision about Sunderland and it's not a good one for the UK". Check out @NickGibbs feed for a screenshot.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickGibbs/status/1330850414917455873

The article sounds very concrete. Not just Sunderland closure but withdrawal from UK market. Announcement to be made public in the coming days.

If true it's an enormous blow to tens of thousands of people involved in the supply chain as well as Nissan itself.

The writing has been on the wall though.

lawred2

murphaph wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickGibbs/status/1330850414917455873

The article sounds very concrete. Not just Sunderland closure but withdrawal from UK market. Announcement to be made public in the coming days.

If true it's an enormous blow to tens of thousands of people involved in the supply chain as well as Nissan itself.

The writing has been on the wall though.

Nissan withdrawal from UK market?

That seems a bit unlikely

ancapailldorcha

lawred2 wrote: »

Nissan withdrawal from UK market?

That seems a bit unlikely

They're not going to stop selling cars to the British, it just makes no sense for them to suffer supply chain disruptions, tariffs and non-tariff barriers for absolutely no benefit.

I'm surprised that it's taken this long, frankly.

murphaph

lawred2 wrote: »

Nissan withdrawal from UK market?

That seems a bit unlikely

It's not because Nissan is also scaling back its models in the EU and hoping that Renault marques pick up the business.

The global automotive sector is undergoing upheaval at the moment.

lawred2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

They're not going to stop selling cars to the British, it just makes no sense for them to suffer supply chain disruptions, tariffs and non-tariff barriers for absolutely no benefit.

I'm surprised that it's taken this long, frankly.

I get the supply chain manufacturing issues..

It was the withdrawal from UK market that made no sense to me

ancapailldorcha

lawred2 wrote: »

I get the supply chain manufacturing issues..

It was the withdrawal from UK market that made no sense to me

Disruption of supply chains means additional, unnecessary long term expenses in terms of warehousing that may not even be available in a convenient location with no benefit. Car manufacture is a highly streamlined process. Taking a hammer to that while pretending otherwise was never going to end well.

lawred2

But that's been the Brexit thought process from the start really..

Bluster and lies. Borne out of British exceptionalism.

But as a market to sell cars.. the UK is still one of biggest in Europe. And it's a market where the Nissan brand is well and long established.

CelticRambler

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Well AFAIK Macron wants a copy of any agreement in French before he will vote for it. Dec 28th isn't giving the translators much time.

If ever you get the chance to visit the European Parliament on an open day, have a look at the translation service.* It's a seriously impressive set-up, and I'm pretty sure they could have any agreement of under 1000 pages translated by the Macron's bedtime the following day. :cool:

* (and if you're feeling courageous, have a go at trying to do a simultaneous audio translation ... :eek: )

Enzokk

Found this very interesting twitter thread about EU laws and their impact on the UK. The varying laws are posted in the replies and it really is a vast amount of laws from the EU that has had a mostly positive impact for the UK (in my opinion).

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1330846255988305922?s=20

trellheim

I cannot see the EU agreeing to leave the IMB with the clauses that break the WA and the GFA become law. That is a minimum that will have serious effects on a future arrangements (if any).

Fishing will sort itself out - the fish will swim, and those caught by the UK boats will rot on the quayside.

Without a deal, the rest will become a long term sore that will fester. The UK will lose out bigly.

I agree. Barnier in that PR was essentially not signaling any breakthrough. I can't see this going much longer though.

ancapailldorcha

Link dump deleted.

druss

Enzokk wrote: »

Found this very interesting twitter thread about EU laws and their impact on the UK. The varying laws are posted in the replies and it really is a vast amount of laws from the EU that has had a mostly positive impact for the UK (in my opinion).

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1330846255988305922?s=20

I see Howard Goodall replies in thread and links to his website article on impacts on musicians, composers and authors. Life really is about to get unnecessarily messy for so many people.

I also saw this being discussed elsewhere on Twitter and a UK based musician (who claimed to have voted Remain) was arguing that all of this was so much EU vindictiveness and that EU could just exempt UK artists as a sign of goodwill.

Strazdas

druss wrote: »

I see Howard Goodall replies in thread and links to his website article on impacts on musicians, composers and authors. Life really is about to get unnecessarily messy for so many people.

I also saw this being discussed elsewhere on Twitter and a UK based musician (who claimed to have voted Remain) was arguing that all of this was so much EU vindictiveness and that EU could just exempt UK artists as a sign of goodwill.

I would say there was a lot of ignorance in England up until 2016 about the EU. The MSM rarely if ever reported on it and the tabloid press spent decades bashing it. Even many Remainers could probably be classed as 'Eurosceptics' (the Leavers being Europhobes).