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Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)
Comments
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Sam Russell wrote: »Coveny's brother runs Greencore.
Frozen food is not a problem. It is chilled food that is banned from entering the EU from third countries - which will include the UK from 1/1/2021.
Greencore is most certainly a company that would not garner much sympathy among the Irish agricultural community.0 -
Join Date:Posts: 19474
Greencore is most certainly a company that would not garner much sympathy among the Irish agricultural community.
Certainly not the sugar beet growers who were sold out by the Gov. The compo for shutting down he Irish sugar quota went in favour of Irish Sugar who became Greencore.
The bitterness remains with those farmers.0 -
First tweet, seems not Brexit related,
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1331205786031300610?s=20
Ironically, this would be seen as far more important by the EU. Brexit would be only a very minor blip compared to the pandemic (most of Europe's media have long since stopped reporting on Brexit).0 -
Sam Russell wrote: »The compo for shutting down he Irish sugar quota went in favour of Irish Sugar who became Greencore.
The bitterness remains with those farmers.
Am I the only one wondering if this is a deliberate pun?0 -
Sam Russell wrote: »Certainly not the sugar beet growers who were sold out by the Gov. The compo for shutting down he Irish sugar quota went in favour of Irish Sugar who became Greencore.
The bitterness remains with those farmers.
Off topic but a quick fact check suggests that Irish Sugar got 2/3 of the compo fund, not all of it.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/farmers-furious-at-98m-compensation-for-greencore-1.790062
edit: I realise that "went in favour" does arguably cover that, but it's possibly misleading.0 -
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Yeah right, like did anyone say it was going to be shut? This is pure Leprechaun-American speak, pandering to his Irish American voter base.
http://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/1124/1180236-pennsylvania-biden-win/
Nobody, but nobody had said they were going to close the Irish border, not the DUP, not Boris, not "The English" and not even the Brexiteers, so why the need to emphasise that the border remains open?
We know the border will remain open, and we know about the new border in the Irish sea which should be the main talking point in my opinion.
Come six months time This New sea border will give this whole island a big trade headache, this is where everybody including US President elect should be concentrating on....
Basically, it has been agreed that shipments between GB & NI will become too expensive & labour intensive (re paperwork), we also know that the UK is not allowed to have its own UK internal trade agreement with the EU, hence NI is and will converge quite quickly with the Republics enonomy, thereby achieving a United Ireland by stealth.
Happy days, now everyone now scream "Cool", break out the champers and put up the United Ireland bunting, but . . .
What about the new economic sea border between this whole island and the island of Great Britain?
Due to Brexit, several of Northern Ireland's big supermarkets (Morrisons, Sainsbury, Asda & Waitrose) are already talking about pulling out of the NI market, such will be the hassle of paperwork and the expense of interisland trade, same will happen here too in the ROI, hence this whole island will rely much more heavily on Ireland (island of) trade with mainland Europe, with Great Britain cut off from this island thanks to the new sea border.
How's about that then Mr Biden.0 -
Hamsterchops wrote: »Yeah right, like did anyone say it was going to be shut? This is pure Leprechaun-American speak, pandering to his Irish American voter base.
http://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/1124/1180236-pennsylvania-biden-win/
Nobody, but nobody had said they were going to close the Irish border, not the DUP, not Boris, not "The English" and not even the Brexiteers, so why the need to emphasise that the border remains open?
Which brings us to . . .Hamsterchops wrote: »We know the border will remain open, and we know about the new border in the Irish sea which should be the main talking point in my opinion.
Which brings us to the Irish Sea border. You talk about this as it it were unrelated to the land border, but of course it’s not. the UK government wants hard Brexit, and hard Brexit inevitably means that there must be some border. As regards NI the issue has been whether that border will be drawn on this side or that side of NI but, as regards RoI, there has never been any doubt but that RoI will be on one side of the border and GB on the other. And that means significant new impediments to RoI/GB trade.
We’ve known this pretty much since 2017, when the UK first announced that it would pursue a hard Brexit (in May’s Lancaster House speech). There were enough contradictory statements in that speech, and enough doubt about May’s understanding of what her policy implied and therefore her commitment to that policy, to enable the hope to continue for some time that the UK would reverse this policy, but it has been clear for at least two years now that this is very unlikely to happen.
The only way these trade impediments can be ameliorated is with a deep free trade agreement. But (a) there is a limit to the extent to which even a deep free trade agreement could avoid the trade impediments which result from hard Brexit; (b) for the past year the UK has made it clear that it will not consider a deep FTA, only a shallow one; and (c) it seems crazily possible that it won’t agree even a shallow one - at any rate, not by the end of the transition period on 31 December.
So, yeah, significant new impediments to RoI/GB trade now look pretty likely.Hamsterchops wrote: »What about the new economic sea border between this whole island and the island of Great Britain?
Due to Brexit, several of Northern Ireland's big supermarkets (Morrisons, Sainsbury, Asda & Waitrose) are already talking about pulling out of the NI market, such will be the hassle of paperwork and the expense of interisland trade, same will happen here too in the ROI, hence this whole island will rely much more heavily on Ireland (island of) trade with mainland Europe, with Great Britain cut off from this island thanks to the new sea border.
How's about that then Mr Biden.
The conventional wisdom has been to argue that a no-FTA end to transition will be too painful for the UK to sustain for very long and that we’ll just have to sweat it out until they come to their senses. But there may be a degree of crossed-fingers wishful thinking there and, even if the UK does make an FTA, if it sticks to its resolve of only making a shallow one that may do only a limited amount to solve the problem. So this could be a torrid time for Ireland.
The question is, what can we do about it? And the depressing answer is, not much. The root cause of the problem is that the UK government is bent on hard Brexit. Hard brexit is injurious to Ireland, north and south. Effective solutions to the problem require the UK government to change this position. There isn’t a great deal that Ireland (or indeed the EU) can do to incentivise them to change this position. And the UK’s dysfunctional politics may enable it to sustain this position, against its own interests as well as ours, for quite some time.0 -
Peregrinus wrote: »think ths focus on supermarkets gets things the wrong way around. Trade in food mostly goes the other way. RoI is a substantial net exporter of food; GB an importer. The problem with the supermarket supply chains will be immediate and painful, but it’s easily soluble (as you point out yourself). It’s not difficult to find alternative suppliers of processed food products to be sold in Irish supermarkets. The injury to Irish food exports may be a more long-term problem; finding alternative purchasers of what we produce is a much bigger challenge - especially for fresh produce,
Actually.my Supermarkets reference was about Northern Ireland and the fact that they will lose several Supermarket retailers, thereby brining their supermarket choice into line with the Republic!
Makes no difference to us, but they (in NI) lose several of their UK supermarkets including Sainsbury, Waitrose, Asda & Morrisons. Going forward the remaining retailers will be identical to here, and supplied by the EU via Dublin & Rosslare.
Britain will cease to trade with NI to the extent that it currently does.0 -
Hamsterchops wrote: »Yeah right, like did anyone say it was going to be shut? This is pure Leprechaun-American speak, pandering to his Irish American voter base.
http://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/1124/1180236-pennsylvania-biden-win/
Nobody, but nobody had said they were going to close the Irish border, not the DUP, not Boris, not "The English" and not even the Brexiteers, so why the need to emphasise that the border remains open?
We know the border will remain open, and we know about the new border in the Irish sea which should be the main talking point in my opinion.
Come six months time This New sea border will give this whole island a big trade headache, this is where everybody including US President elect should be concentrating on....
Basically, it has been agreed that shipments between GB & NI will become too expensive & labour intensive (re paperwork), we also know that the UK is not allowed to have its own UK internal trade agreement with the EU, hence NI is and will converge quite quickly with the Republics enonomy, thereby achieving a United Ireland by stealth.
Happy days, now everyone now scream "Cool", break out the champers and put up the United Ireland bunting, but . . .
What about the new economic sea border between this whole island and the island of Great Britain?
Due to Brexit, several of Northern Ireland's big supermarkets (Morrisons, Sainsbury, Asda & Waitrose) are already talking about pulling out of the NI market, such will be the hassle of paperwork and the expense of interisland trade, same will happen here too in the ROI, hence this whole island will rely much more heavily on Ireland (island of) trade with mainland Europe, with Great Britain cut off from this island thanks to the new sea border.
How's about that then Mr Biden.0 -
Hamsterchops wrote: »Actually.my Supermarkets reference was about Northern Ireland and the fact that they will lose several Supermarket retailers, thereby brining their supermarket choice into line with the Republic!
Makes no difference to us, but they (in NI) lose several of their UK supermarkets including Sainsbury, Waitrose, Asda & Morrisons. Going forward the remaining retailers will be identical to here, and supplied by the EU via Dublin & Rosslare.
Britain will cease to trade with NI to the extent that it currently does.
You say about NI border "Yeah right, like did anyone say it was going to be shut?"but as in above post if UK don't implement NI protocol that is probably what is going to happen somewhere down the line (unless Ireland starts to distance itself from the EU).
My understanding is that operations will get trickier for these supermarkets if they rely totally on a GB to NI supply route (as opposed to them being "forced to close" by nefarious actors like Biden or the EU or the Irish govt).
Given the UKs "take no prisoners" approch to Brexit, it is either a potential border between Ireland and NI or the "sea border" which brings its own sets of problems. So which is it to be?
As I think Covid-19 has illustrated, facts and reality have to be faced eventually, pain is suffered either way. You can only live for so long in the castles in the sky world of the politicians who lied & sold the bad idea of Brexit to people in the UK (and NI).0 -
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Hamsterchops wrote: »Yeah right, like did anyone say it was going to be shut? This is pure Leprechaun-American speak, pandering to his Irish American voter base.
http://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/1124/1180236-pennsylvania-biden-win/
Nobody, but nobody had said they were going to close the Irish border, not the DUP, not Boris, not "The English" and not even the Brexiteers, so why the need to emphasise that the border remains open?
We know the border will remain open, and we know about the new border in the Irish sea which should be the main talking point in my opinion.
Come six months time This New sea border will give this whole island a big trade headache, this is where everybody including US President elect should be concentrating on....
Basically, it has been agreed that shipments between GB & NI will become too expensive & labour intensive (re paperwork), we also know that the UK is not allowed to have its own UK internal trade agreement with the EU, hence NI is and will converge quite quickly with the Republics enonomy, thereby achieving a United Ireland by stealth.
Happy days, now everyone now scream "Cool", break out the champers and put up the United Ireland bunting, but . . .
What about the new economic sea border between this whole island and the island of Great Britain?
Due to Brexit, several of Northern Ireland's big supermarkets (Morrisons, Sainsbury, Asda & Waitrose) are already talking about pulling out of the NI market, such will be the hassle of paperwork and the expense of interisland trade, same will happen here too in the ROI, hence this whole island will rely much more heavily on Ireland (island of) trade with mainland Europe, with Great Britain cut off from this island thanks to the new sea border.
How's about that then Mr Biden.
Is it Biden's fault that the UK agreed to a border in the Irish Sea in the Withdrawal Agreement and then came up with the Internal Markets Bill that seeks to give the UK government the power to override international law and break the Withdrawal Agreement which would result in the necessity of a hard border on the island of Ireland?0 -
Hamsterchops wrote: »Nobody, but nobody had said they were going to close the Irish border, not the DUP, not Boris, not "The English" and not even the Brexiteers, so why the need to emphasise that the border remains open?
Its a TV interview for a wide audience, not a technical discussion amongst trade experts. What he means by keeping the border open is that it remains frictionless and infrastructure free with no customs etc between NI and RoI.Hamsterchops wrote: »Due to Brexit, several of Northern Ireland's big supermarkets (Morrisons, Sainsbury, Asda & Waitrose) are already talking about pulling out of the NI market, such will be the hassle of paperwork and the expense of interisland trade, same will happen here too in the ROI, hence this whole island will rely much more heavily on Ireland (island of) trade with mainland Europe, with Great Britain cut off from this island thanks to the new sea border.
How's about that then Mr Biden.
Two things:-
1. The Americans (Obama et the time), the Irish and EU all warned of significant disruption to established supply chains and trading relationships if the UK voted for Brexit. The Brits didn't listen, didn't believe it (project fear) or simply didn't care. They are a sovereign country free to wreck economic damage on themselves if they wish to. The problem is there is going to be significant collateral damage and Ireland being closest to ground zero will be impacted the most. We tried to mitigate the effects through negotiating a softer Brexit but the Brits weren't interested so we managed to secure some degree of mitigation via the WA which the Brits have already decided to tear up.
2. Brexit shows how over reliant we have historically been on the UK as an economic partner and logistics route etc which has thankfully reduced much over the last decades. Given their jingoistic decision making, disregard for the impact on Ireland and untrustworthiness when it comes to adhering to agreements they freely enter into I think it's time we fundamentally cut the remaining apron strings, nailed our colours firmly to the EU mast and take the once off short to medium term consequences so that going forward we are never ever again in a position where the meltdown antics of an increasingly unstable and fractious UK can negatively affect us.
Instead of worrying about the withdrawal of Morrisons, Sainsbury, Asda & Waitrose let's embrace the opportunities of replacing that UK centric supply chain with EU based supply partners. Routing through the UK has been convenient but switching to EU based supply chains facilitated by ferry will work out fine once the initial disruption and teething problems settle down.0 -
Hamsterchops wrote: »Yeah right, like did anyone say it was going to be shut? This is pure Leprechaun-American speak, pandering to his Irish American voter base.
http://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/1124/1180236-pennsylvania-biden-win/
Nobody, but nobody had said they were going to close the Irish border, not the DUP, not Boris, not "The English" and not even the Brexiteers, so why the need to emphasise that the border remains open?
We know the border will remain open, and we know about the new border in the Irish sea which should be the main talking point in my opinion.
Come six months time This New sea border will give this whole island a big trade headache, this is where everybody including US President elect should be concentrating on....
Basically, it has been agreed that shipments between GB & NI will become too expensive & labour intensive (re paperwork), we also know that the UK is not allowed to have its own UK internal trade agreement with the EU, hence NI is and will converge quite quickly with the Republics enonomy, thereby achieving a United Ireland by stealth.
Happy days, now everyone now scream "Cool", break out the champers and put up the United Ireland bunting, but . . .
What about the new economic sea border between this whole island and the island of Great Britain?
Due to Brexit, several of Northern Ireland's big supermarkets (Morrisons, Sainsbury, Asda & Waitrose) are already talking about pulling out of the NI market, such will be the hassle of paperwork and the expense of interisland trade, same will happen here too in the ROI, hence this whole island will rely much more heavily on Ireland (island of) trade with mainland Europe, with Great Britain cut off from this island thanks to the new sea border.
How's about that then Mr Biden.
Joe Biden bears no responsibility for the introduction of any borders, hard or soft, between Ireland, Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Maybe save your ire or even better direct your ire at those actually responsible.0 -
I have no "ire" just pointing out that nobody has said they want to close the Irish border, so am curious as to why Mr Biden says "keep the border open", like who said they were going to close it?
I guess using the island of Britain as s land bridge is going to get very complicated and fractious as we bypass their markets and trade exclusively with Europe.......
Might we see lorry delays at Fishguard etc?0 -
Its a bit splitting hairs to say 'nobody has said they want to close the Irish border' when everything that has happened with Brexit has suggested it is one pretty clear option.
Biden is a politician, he says what will push his agenda. Hopefully his agenda is more wholesome than Trumps - it would not be difficult - and he is working in the best interest of the US, and incidentally, Ireland. It is entirely harmless for him to say what he has, it is useful to us to keep the Ireland situation visible, especially given the hysteria of the past few years. There are lots more things to worry about than this.0 -
Hamsterchops wrote: »I have no "ire" just pointing out that nobody has said they want to close the Irish border, so am curious as to why Mr Biden says "keep the border open", like who said they were going to close it?
I guess using the island of Britain as s land bridge is going to get very complicated and fractious as we bypass their markets and trade exclusively with Europe.......
Might we see lorry delays at Fishguard etc?
The British, should they break the terms of the WA, will introduce a British border on the island of Ireland. This would be a border between Britain and the EU.0 -
Hamsterchops wrote: »I have no "ire" just pointing out that nobody has said they want to close the Irish border, so am curious as to why Mr Biden says "keep the border open", like who said they were going to close it?
I guess using the island of Britain as s land bridge is going to get very complicated and fractious as we bypass their markets and trade exclusively with Europe.......
Might we see lorry delays at Fishguard etc?
what do you propose then,
Figment a no border? , 'just because we say it makes it so' ?
Genuinely interested in this take on it because its pervasive across twitter and has no basis in reality either.0 -
Join Date:Posts: 19474
Hamsterchops wrote: »I have no "ire" just pointing out that nobody has said they want to close the Irish border, so am curious as to why Mr Biden says "keep the border open", like who said they were going to close it?
I guess using the island of Britain as s land bridge is going to get very complicated and fractious as we bypass their markets and trade exclusively with Europe.......
Might we see lorry delays at Fishguard etc?
Fishguard?
The second busiest RORO port in GB is Holyhead, and there are no proper customs facilities at Holyhead, nor in North Wales.
The simplest solution to the NI/GB border is to close the ports of Belfast and Larne for imports and move all traffic through Dublin. At least 60% of such traffic currently goes that way anyway.
As for supermarkets, Lidl and Aldi are both German in origin and will continue to trade on an all island basis, as will Dunnes and presumable Tesco. M&S are likely to withdraw totally from Ireland as they find operating in Ireland less profitable for them. Up until recently, M&S online sales were available to the whole world - except Ireland. Figure that one out, particularly as Irish prices are generally 20% above UK prices for the same item.
The other supermarkets mentioned (Sainsbury, Asda, Waitrose, and Morrisons) are hardly likely to just shut up shop, turn the key and walk away. I would expect some of them to look at other EU supermarkets like the French Carrefour to either partner with or sell out to, which on balance might improve the lot of NI shoppers. Some may choose to link with Irish supermarkets like Musgraves.0 -
Hamsterchops wrote: »I have no "ire" just pointing out that nobody has said they want to close the Irish border, so am curious as to why Mr Biden says "keep the border open", like who said they were going to close it?
I guess using the island of Britain as s land bridge is going to get very complicated and fractious as we bypass their markets and trade exclusively with Europe.......
Might we see lorry delays at Fishguard etc?
The British government introduced the Internal Markets Bill, which has the potential to undermine the withdrawl agreement to the extent that restrictions on the land border with NI are needed to protect the integrity of the EU single market. Mr. Biden is making it clear that this ploy by the UK is a bad idea.
The British may say one thing, but their actions keep open the threat of a hard land border.0 -
Hamsterchops wrote: »I have no "ire" just pointing out that nobody has said they want to close the Irish border, so am curious as to why Mr Biden says "keep the border open", like who said they were going to close it?
I guess using the island of Britain as s land bridge is going to get very complicated and fractious as we bypass their markets and trade exclusively with Europe.......
Might we see lorry delays at Fishguard etc?
While we're splitting hairs - it's probably only fair to point that it's a British Border in Ireland0 -
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Hamsterchops wrote: »I have no "ire" just pointing out that nobody has said they want to close the Irish border, so am curious as to why Mr Biden says "keep the border open", like who said they were going to close it?
I guess using the island of Britain as s land bridge is going to get very complicated and fractious as we bypass their markets and trade exclusively with Europe.......
Might we see lorry delays at Fishguard etc?
Because the entire point of Brexit was controlling borders. The UK set out to close borders. That they forgot about the border they had created on the island of Ireland is their fault.
They were given numerous chances to avoid it. The WA being the biggest. They have decided to turn their back on any and all opportunities to avoid a hard border due to their desire to get brexit done.
The fault lies solely, and squarely, with the UK. Even the letter from the NI assembly to the EU, pleading for special treatment seemed totally misplaced. Why would part of a sovereign nation write to an external power about decisions they themselves had taken?
There is a simple solution. Rejoin the EU. Simple. Could be done by the end of the year.
They don't want to do that so they need to have a solution to the problems they are causing. Thus far, the solution seems to amount to nothing more than 'we don't want to face the consequences '0 -
Wow, thanks for all the replies chaps.
Personally, I think Brexit was a mistake, I think it should never have happened, but I am fascinated around the language used in "Brexit talk" whether it's Mr Biden and "Don't close the Irish border" to a new border in the Irish sea, to fish quotas, to the UK internal market bill, etc etc ..
Never ending red tape that the Brexiteers probably never thought of.0 -
Join Date:Posts: 19474
Hamsterchops wrote: »Wow, thanks for all the replies chaps.
Personally, I think Brexit was a mistake, I think it should never have happened, but I am fascinated around the language used in "Brexit talk" whether it's Me Biden and "Don't close the Irish border" to a new border in the Irish sea, to fish quotas....
Never ending red tape that the Brexiteers probably never thought of.
This the thirteenth iteration of this thread, and all matters about Brexit have been discussed to exhaustion. The red tape, the JIT problems, the certificate of origin problems, the question of driving licences, the Health Insurance card, the services problem the UK will face because services are unlikely to be included in a FTA, the closing of car assembly, etc etc etc etc.
All covered, all explained, all obvious to any that would listen. But the few true Brexiteers and cheer leaders that came on each lasted but a short while and either realised the errors of their way, or left disheartened. Pity, because it meant that this became an echo chamber, but well informed.
That the Brexiteers never thought of anything in particular is due to their closed vision, not the absence of facts.0 -
There is obviously millions of people in the U.K. who are hearing and seeing an entirely different view and fully believe that what they are hearing and seeing is entirely correct.
I fear the only way for the truth to be seen is for it to happen. But even then that’s no guarantee that it will be believed universally.0 -
The French running some tests appear to have caused some chaos in Kent...
Trial of Brexit border checks causes five-mile lorry queues in Kent
M20 backlog caused by French authorities testing post-Brexit checks at the EurotunnelThe controls require truck drivers to provide passports, and are asked about proof of means, their destination and length of stay which can last up to 70 seconds per passenger.0 -
Seth Brundle wrote: »The French running some tests appear to have caused some chaos in Kent...
Trial of Brexit border checks causes five-mile lorry queues in Kent
M20 backlog caused by French authorities testing post-Brexit checks at the Eurotunnel
It's all just parlour games in the eyes of an Eton Brexiteer0 -
Is it still a thing for the English to get the ferry to Calais and load up on cheap wine? That will come to a halt too I guess.
I wonder how things will go in the UK when peoples daily lives start to become affected by this but then I think it will be remainers daily lives, who saw what would happen, will be affected while the daily lives of brexiteers probably not so much.0 -
Yorkshire fishermen now begging the UK Government to... fight for them... because the paperwork to sell fish to the EU might be too much?
Link here.
Signed by James White, Ian Perkes, David Pessell, Andrew Pillar, Mark Greet and Jim Portus. All of them pro-Brexit campaigners. (Among others.)We are an island but we import fish! We want our fishing rights back.0 -
Folks
This is getting crazy, debate aside. At the moment it looks like no-one wants to be the first to exit the tunnel, so at what point do you say "Enough" this is pointless.0 -
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Folks
This is getting crazy, debate aside. At the moment it looks like no-one wants to be the first to exit the tunnel, so at what point do you say "Enough" this is pointless.
The problem appears to be Johnson. A trade deal could have been agreed months ago (talks have been going on all year). He seems to be throwing obstacles and hard red lines into the mix concerning "British sovereignty", meaning the talks are crawling along.
It's crazy stuff. Normally when two sides are negotiating a trade deal, sovereignty is not the main issue.0
This discussion has been closed.
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