Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Sam Russell

Strazdas wrote: »

The problem appears to be Johnson. A trade deal could have been agreed months ago (talks have been going on all year). He seems to be throwing obstacles and hard red lines into the mix concerning "British sovereignty", meaning the talks are crawling along.

It's crazy stuff. Normally when two sides are negotiating a trade deal, sovereignty is not the main issue.

Ah, Johnson - the man who can never see the big picture and is too lazy to check the small details.

As they say, Eton Brexit - soon forgotten.

L1011

dogbert27 wrote: »

Is it still a thing for the English to get the ferry to Calais and load up on cheap wine? That will come to a halt too I guess.

This is a "yes, but" answer - supermarket price wars in the UK did severe damage to this as did HMRC starting to ask significant questions about it actually being for personal use. One remaining reason that could justify the cost and that you would get away with was your own wedding.

Major UK chains had stores in Calais - Tesco, Sainsburys, Oddbins - but they all closed ~2010. There are still French hypermarches plying for the remaining trade.

CelticRambler

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The French running some tests appear to have caused some chaos in Kent...

Trial of Brexit border checks causes five-mile lorry queues in Kent
M20 backlog caused by French authorities testing post-Brexit checks at the Eurotunnel

And I see that this is not a Brexit problem, but entirely due to the French! :pac:

One source said the dry run caused delays because the French had not deployed enough staff needed for a live operation and once properly resourced more lanes would be open to help ease the congestion.

How dare those smelly foreigners not employ enough people to handle Britain's mess.

Winters

breatheme wrote: »

Yorkshire fishermen now begging the UK Government to... fight for them... because the paperwork to sell fish to the EU might be too much?

Link here.

Signed by James White, Ian Perkes, David Pessell, Andrew Pillar, Mark Greet and Jim Portus. All of them pro-Brexit campaigners. (Among others.)


- James White, 2016

That article just another example of the Brexit hypocrisy. Such clouded and irresponsible positions taken by those business people.

roosterman71

CelticRambler wrote: »

And I see that this is not a Brexit problem, but entirely due to the French! :pac:



How dare those smelly foreigners not employ enough people to handle Britain's mess.

And if I was the French lad/lassie running those checks I'd be reducing the number of people performing them, not increasing come January 1st

Professor Moriarty

breatheme wrote: »

Yorkshire fishermen now begging the UK Government to... fight for them... because the paperwork to sell fish to the EU might be too much?

Link here.

Signed by James White, Ian Perkes, David Pessell, Andrew Pillar, Mark Greet and Jim Portus. All of them pro-Brexit campaigners. (Among others.)


- James White, 2016

So they campaigned for Brexit but now realise that Brexit is going to hammer their businesses. It shouldn't, but schadenfreude tastes so sweet.

PeadarCo

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The French running some tests appear to have caused some chaos in Kent...

Trial of Brexit border checks causes five-mile lorry queues in Kent
M20 backlog caused by French authorities testing post-Brexit checks at the Eurotunnel

What's scary about this is that the checks they were doing only related to passports unless I've read the article wrong. I think the article only mentions each check taking 70 seconds. They weren't doing full customs checks which would take far longer especially if documentation isn't correct. So the tailback is only a small taste of things to come.

trellheim

So as I predicted above there comes a time to p or get off the pot

Michel Barnier has told David Frost he sees no need to travel to London at the weekend for more 'probably pointless' talks unless there's movement on the three key sticking points. No decision has been made yet, but neither side is denying this report.

Being retweeted https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1331589902484574208

Leroy42

Whatever is the outcome, there is some serious arm twisting and brinkmanship being carried out by both sides.

The risks are massive, get it wrong and it potentially damage your side for years and years to come. The pressure must be almost unbearable.

The desire to just agree to something, anything, to get it done must be immense. On both sides.

Leroy42

But I get the feeling that the EU are very much aware of the impact, certainly, we are in RoI, but that even if they know in the Uk they don't really care.

I see that today the UK has reneged on their international commitment to fund overseas development of 0.7%pa.

Apparently there are mechanisms already built in to allow for one of reductions so to change the law means they have no intention of going back.

Without getting into the debate about the funds, this is yet another example of a UK that cannot be trusted to comply with its commitments.

Infini

I'd say this is as best an ultimatumn the EU will be needing to issue at this point. Times been wasted and now its basically decision time for Boris and his friends. They either sign up to their legal obligations or are basically cut loose till they agree to be held to their word. These requirements for the EU are essentially mandatory for any agreement wether now or in the future so the UK inflicting damage on themselves over their own thick idiocy is both pointless and self defeating and wont change this down the line.

I honestly think myself its "no deal" and that we've passed the point of no return purely because of the Conservatives utter incompetence and gaslighting and that the only way to ultimately solve this for the UK to actually see the consequences of electing fools and idiots to goverment.

trellheim

the flip side is to push the no deal button ( i.e. starting to move stuff into action that has to happen if its a no-deal)

needs to start happening very soon i.e. our landbridge needs to move to Europe and so on

fly_agaric

Leroy42 wrote: »

The pressure must be almost unbearable.
The desire to just agree to something, anything, to get it done must be immense. On both sides.

Don't know about pressure but I'm sure the negotiators on both sides must be fairly fed up. After years of busy work and if we are honest bollox about Brexit they'll probably still be at this over the Christmas holidays thanks to the UK stalling tactics and nonsense!
What a wasted life in a way. The man hours burned up on it all must be immense masive.

Capt'n Midnight

dogbert27 wrote: »

Is it still a thing for the English to get the ferry to Calais and load up on cheap wine? That will come to a halt too I guess.

If the UK leave the common market with the current Brexit Bill then the Booze Cruise could be back for us too.

https://afloat.ie/port-news/ferry-news/item/48350-ferry-firm-preparing-for-return-of-duty-free-as-irish-sea-booze-cruise-could-return-after-brexit

The Irish Government also this week confirmed travellers from Ireland to the UK are set to enjoy duty and tax free purchases at ports and airports from 1 January - if their 2020 Brexit bill goes through as it stands.

Professor Moriarty

Infini wrote: »

I'd say this is as best an ultimatumn the EU will be needing to issue at this point. Times been wasted and now its basically decision time for Boris and his friends. They either sign up to their legal obligations or are basically cut loose till they agree to be held to their word. These requirements for the EU are essentially mandatory for any agreement wether now or in the future so the UK inflicting damage on themselves over their own thick idiocy is both pointless and self defeating and wont change this down the line.

I honestly think myself its "no deal" and that we've passed the point of no return purely because of the Conservatives utter incompetence and gaslighting and that the only way to ultimately solve this for the UK to actually see the consequences of electing fools and idiots to goverment.

With a majority of 80, Johnson can continue to do what he likes for the next 3.5 years.

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

Fishguard?

The second busiest RORO port in GB is Holyhead, and there are no proper customs facilities at Holyhead, nor in North Wales.

There will be customs clearing in Warrington and Birmingham. And The European Union is planning to enforce border controls on the Irish side from 1 January but inbound lorries into Wales will not face any checks by UK authorities until July 2021.

Dr Edward Jones, from Bangor Business School, added: "We seem to be getting the headache of Brexit here in that we could see parts of the island becoming a car park for the trucks, but we don't seem to be getting any of the benefits of those customs jobs. They seem to be going elsewhere."

Take a wild guess at which Island was the only part of the Welsh speaking region to vote for Brexit. Another guess at which Island changed from a Labour MP to a Tory MP at the last elections.

Given how many poorer regions of the UK were sold a pup it could well undermine their remaining faith in UK's political process.

M&S are likely to withdraw totally from Ireland as they find operating in Ireland less profitable for them.

I don't think so, they are a premium brand so people will still shop there. I wonder how many people moved to them when Superquinn became SuperValu.

People here still buy German cars even though there's oodles of tax on them, Brexiteers looking at the history of car prices here couldn't but understand that the marques will still sell but the bottom of the market which their factories cater for is far more volatile.

The other supermarkets mentioned (Sainsbury, Asda, Waitrose, and Morrisons) are hardly likely to just shut up shop, turn the key and walk away. I would expect some of them to look at other EU supermarkets like the French Carrefour to either partner with or sell out to, which on balance might improve the lot of NI shoppers. Some may choose to link with Irish supermarkets like Musgraves.

Carrefour hypermarkets are huge and I don't know if they'd come here unless they were allowed bring them too.



https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/news-opinion/day-uks-first-hypermarket-carrefour-16466845
Christmas shoppers at Carrefour, Caerphilly, Wales, 1973

To mark the Caerphilly store’s sixth birthday in 1978 they brought the world’s largest animated gorilla into the car park – 40ft high and weighing in at three tons.

Nody

I'm surprised it's not been posted but ESMA (The European Securities and Markets Authority) has published it's final report on Brexit.

ESMA acknowledges that this approach creates challenges for some EU counterparties particularly UK branches of EU investment firms. However, ESMA considers that EU counterparties can meet their obligations under the DTO by trading on EU trading venues or eligible trading venues in third countries, and this situation is primarily a consequence of the way the UK has chosen to implement the DTO.

Based on the current legal framework, and in the absence of an equivalence decision by the European Commission, ESMA does not see room for providing different guidance.

Now what does that mean? Well as of Jan 1st London (and UK) are not allowed to do new EU derivatives any more and they got 12 months to transfer all the business to another location for existing once... New York however are certified to do so among other EU countries of course. This goes against what Boris has been telling the London banks they would still have access afterwards and it's a market worth over 735 trillion which UK was world leading in. Brexit, the gift that keeps giving.

BonnieSituation

@the Capt'n, it was Superquinn that were bought by Musgraves and became Super Valu. Quinnsworth and Crazy Prices were bought by Tesco.

Sam Russell

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

I don't think so, they are a premium brand so people will still shop there. I wonder how many people moved to them when Quinnsworth became SuperValu.

Quinnsworth became Tesco It was Fergal Quinn's Superquinn that became Supervalu, a subsidiary of Musgrave's.

M&S is under pressure here - which is why they may pull out - otherwise they must transform their business model. They cannot continue to import almost everything from GB. Add delays, customs, etc - it cannot compete. Tesco might also have to redo their business model, but they already source product from Ireland.

CelticRambler

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Carrefour hypermarkets are huge and I don't know if they'd come here unless they were allowed bring them too.

In France, Carrefour operate supermarkets of all sizes from little more than your typical corner shop to the hypergiants. Carrefour City, Carrefour Express, Carrefour Contact and Carrefour Market all complement the traditional Carrefour, just Carrefour. So I doubt they'd have any trouble adpating to whatever stores came up for sale in NI ... if they were sufficiently interested in moving in.

If there's going to be any change, I'd say it's more likely that we'll see more of the strategic alliances between UK-based chains and already-in-Ireland retailers, such as that which already exists between SuperValu and ... umm ... ... one of the more up-market English brands (Waitrose, is it?)

listermint

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

With a majority of 80, Johnson can continue to do what he likes for the next 3.5 years.

Not sure that's true. Like Thatcher of the conservatives are getting it in the neck next year from all around them including business he can be ousted just as quick.

Professor Moriarty

listermint wrote: »

Not sure that's true. Like Thatcher of the conservatives are getting it in the neck next year from all around them including business he can be ousted just as quick.

He can be ousted and probably will. But he'll be replaced by another Brexiteer, probably Sunak. And the madness will continue. Remember, this is a much more right-wing parliamentary party than even Thatcher's.

listermint

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He can be ousted and probably will. But he'll be replaced by another Brexiteer, probably Sunak. And the madness will continue. Remember, this is a much more right-wing parliamentary party than even Thatcher's.

Are there though. There's alot of association by convenience going on tbh. I think theres a cohort of zealots and they're are small but there's a majority of apathy and associated il see which way the wind is blowing going on.

Once the public sets in next year and jobs and businesses officially start flying the coop the media will be forced to report it. The media are keeping a lid on the truth of what's coming so far.

Professor Moriarty

listermint wrote: »

Are there though. There's alot of association by convenience going on tbh. I think theres a cohort of zealots and they're are small but there's a majority of apathy and associated il see which way the wind is blowing going on.

Once the public sets in next year and jobs and businesses officially start flying the coop the media will be forced to report it. The media are keeping a lid on the truth of what's coming so far.

I dunno. This is a public that has been conditioned for decades. In the polls, there's a steady 43% who believe in Brexit come what may. It's a religious belief now. They will vote Tory, as they did in 2019, primarily because the Tories will get Brexit done and keep it done. Even if there was a massive backbench revolt that brought the government down (very unlikely with 80 seat majority), 43% is all you need to get a decent majority in Britain. Throw in a perennially divided Labour party and the Tories would canter home. This Tory government is probably here to stay for a long time.

Having said that, Sunak announced today that there will have to be 27 billion cuts or tax raises next year. And that's before he's factored in a Crash Out. But he's going to borrow the sh1te out of it as well so it's all grand.

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

Quinnsworth became Tesco It was Fergal Quinn's Superquinn that became Supervalu, a subsidiary of Musgrave's.

Ah yes Superquinnsworth.

Too many Quinns in the retail trade back then.

M&S is under pressure here - which is why they may pull out - otherwise they must transform their business model. They cannot continue to import almost everything from GB. Add delays, customs, etc - it cannot compete. Tesco might also have to redo their business model, but they already source product from Ireland.

M&S import a lot stuff from outside the UK.

https://interactivemap.marksandspencer.com/ oh dear, they do have a lot of English suppliers don't they.

CelticRambler wrote: »

If there's going to be any change, I'd say it's more likely that we'll see more of the strategic alliances between UK-based chains and already-in-Ireland retailers, such as that which already exists between SuperValu and ... umm ... ... one of the more up-market English brands (Waitrose, is it?)

In the UK Carrefour are in an alliance with ... Tesco

Thanks to the CTA UK stores could move staff here more easily than between the UK and France.

It will be interesting to see how many UK offices move here in a reversal of the positions on the Organisational Charts.

CelticRambler

listermint wrote: »

I think theres a cohort of zealots and they're are small but there's a majority of apathy and associated il see which way the wind is blowing going on.

Once the public sets in next year and jobs and businesses officially start flying the coop the media will be forced to report it. The media are keeping a lid on the truth of what's coming so far.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I dunno. This is a public that has been conditioned for decades. In the polls, there's a steady 43% who believe in Brexit come what may. It's a religious belief now.

Agreed. The parallels between Brexit Britain and Trump's MAGA 'Merica will extend to the True Believers. Even within the last month, 70 million of our Transatlantic cousins still thought DJT was the best person to lead their country into the next decade. We have seen that facts, evidence, proof, even direct personal experience of the hardship caused by the cult leader count for nothing.

So I wouldn't be betting on any significant shift in public opinion between now and the run-up to the next election. What happens and what's said during the campaign, well that'll be a whole different story.

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

https://interactivemap.marksandspencer.com/ oh dear, they do have a lot of English suppliers don't they.

:eek: Swaziland is called Eswatini now? How come there wasn't a 5000-post thread on boards.ie about that at the time? :P

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I dunno. This is a public that has been conditioned for decades. In the polls, there's a steady 43% who believe in Brexit come what may. It's a religious belief now. They will vote Tory, as they did in 2019, primarily because the Tories will get Brexit done and keep it done. Even if there was a massive backbench revolt that brought the government down (very unlikely with 80 seat majority), 43% is all you need to get a decent majority in Britain. Throw in a perennially divided Labour party and the Tories would canter home. This Tory government is probably here to stay for a long time.

Having said that, Sunak announced today that there will have to be 27 billion cuts or tax raises next year. And that's before he's factored in a Crash Out. But he's going to borrow the sh1te out of it as well so it's all grand.

I would agree with you on their description, but I don't think they are as high as 43%. I'd hazard a guess that the real hardcore would be around 35% : these would be your dyed in the wool Tories, UKIPers, Brexiteers, right wingers etc.....these guys will never admit Brexit is a failure (and will never stop hating Europe and foreigners).

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

I would agree with you on their description, but I don't think they are as high as 43%. I'd hazard a guess that the real hardcore would be around 35% : these would be your dyed in the wool Tories, UKIPers, Brexiteers, right wingers etc.....these guys will never admit Brexit is a failure (and will never stop hating Europe and foreigners).

Deltapoll asked this question in July, September and October this year.

If there was another referendum on Britain's membership of the EU, how would you vote?

On average, 43% said they would vote Leave. And that's with 13% Don't Knows.

But even with 35% hardcore Brexiteers who vote Tory because they are the party of Brexit, you just have to add in those who absolutely don't want a Labour government. And there's your comfortable Tory majority.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Deltapoll asked this question in July, September and October this year.

If there was another referendum on Britain's membership of the EU, how would you vote?

On average, 43% said they would vote Leave. And that's with 13% Don't Knows.

But even with 35% hardcore Brexiteers who vote Tory because they are the party of Brexit, you just have to add in those who absolutely don't want a Labour government. And there's your comfortable Tory majority.

Yes, the hardcore will never admit Brexit was wrong. It has become like a religion to them - they can't actually abandon it without inflicting stress or trauma on themselves. The only way they can handle it is to deny Brexit is failing (or alternatively claim that it is not being implemented properly). The ideology itself can never be wrong.

Capt'n Midnight

CelticRambler wrote: »

:eek: Swaziland is called Eswatini now? How come there wasn't a 5000-post thread on boards.ie about that at the time? :P

<cough> eSwatini </cough>

It's part of the world's oldest customs union.