Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

listermint

tanko wrote: »

So does that mean that in the event of a no deal Brexit a person who was born in and has lived all their life in London but has an Irish passport because their granny was Irish will be able to live and work anywhere in the EU just the same as any other EU citizen?

Yes , pretty much. In a nutshell that's accurate.

Capt'n Midnight

McGiver wrote: »

Not necessarily. They can just join the EEA:
1. Sign here please from now on (all EU laws)
2. Annual fee
3. Freedom of movement

EEA membership is only open to EU and EFTA members. The UK burnt that bridge too


I could see Scotland being allowed join the EFTA as an equal with common heritage and goals.

I can't see the UK / England being allowed to join. It would be impossible to sell to the public given how much sovereignty they'd need to had over on trade deals, common laws with the EU all the freedoms of movement etc. etc. And Norway isn't likely to help because of real reasons. And fishing.

Strazdas

Apparently the Barnier meeting with fisheries ministers is 'not' urgent or anything out of the ordinary. People got their wires crossed.

McGiver

Capt'n Midnight wrote:

I could see Scotland being allowed join the EFTA as an equal with common heritage and goals.

Yes, it's a clone of Norway to a large extent.

Capt'n Midnight wrote:

I can't see the UK / England being allowed to join. It would be impossible to sell to the public given how much sovereignty they'd need to had over on trade deals, common laws with the EU all the freedoms of movement etc. etc.

Norway wouldn't agree. UK is too large, it would disrupt the balance. Just like the "famous" English stag tourists - too many of them, too loud, too obnoxious It wouldn't work.
From the UK side, having to accept Lichtenstein's veto wouldn't sit well with Westminster and Daily Mail readers.

Charles Babbage

McGiver wrote: »

From the UK side, having to accept Lichtenstein's veto wouldn't sit well with Westminster and Daily Mail readers.

Well they might approve of their national anthem.

reslfj

Leroy42 wrote: »

I would say that there might be some understanding in the initial stage, but why should a UK citizen entering France (for example) be given favourable treatment over an Argentian (or whatever)? They were before because of the FoM agreement, but the UK no longer wants to be part of that.

FoM is not travel

FoM for people is in its root not about travel, but allows movement of permanent address and/or job to another EU/EEA/CH state - (i.e. move=relocate life centre)

Unless you have EU citizens status, you need work and 'stay' permission, which is (mostly) a national competence. You need permission to move permanently (90+ days) to and/or work in e.g. Spain. It will often require several registrations in the country like your address, registration with tax aut. maybe a local bank account....

Except for corona restrictions and temporary internal border control (e.g. during terror events)

You don't travel to France, but travel into the Schengen area. This requires a passport and a visa. You are then allowed to travel freely within the Schengen area as tourist, on a business trip, visiting family, but not working.

People from many countries do not need a Schengen visa to enter for a visit, but can enter using a valid national passport.

To enter the US you need an ESTA registration ($14/three years) to qualify for passport only/visa free entry. If you don't qualify for ESTA, you will need a full US visa.
The EU has plans to implement the same type of preregistration with the not yet operational ETIAS system (expected € 6-7) for 3. country entry into the Schengen area without a visa, but with only your (e.g. UK) passport. Likely implemented in 2022.
It might be part of an EU-UK deal to give UK passports status like EU passports for entering Schengen even after ETIAS is put into operation. I guess, this will depend on the agreed level of EU_UK Europol and security database cooperation?

You can stay within the Schengen area for no more than 90 days out of every 180 days (some extensions are possible, I believe).

Passports or for EU citizens alternatively an ID card are not checked at internal Schengen borders. You are, however, required to be able to identify yourself to the police anywhere within the Schengen area. EU countries are more or less strictly enforcing this.

Lars

PS! FoM will of cause require some travel too, and lately some EU laws have mixed the traditional FoM with travel rules.

volchitsa

tanko wrote: »

So does that mean that in the event of a no deal Brexit a person who was born in and has lived all their life in London but has an Irish passport because their granny was Irish will be able to live and work anywhere in the EU just the same as any other EU citizen?

Yes. That's why Northern Ireland post offices literally ran out of application forms for Irish passports in the weeks after the Brexit referendum - because so many loyalists were making first applications for Irish passports (I personally know one such family and I know there wasn't an application form available for weeks).

The irony is still breathtaking even now.

dogbert27

volchitsa wrote: »

Yes. That's why Northern Ireland post offices literally ran out of application forms for Irish passports in the weeks after the Brexit referendum - because so many loyalists were making first applications for Irish passports (I personally know one such family and I know there wasn't an application form available for weeks).

The irony is still breathtaking even now.

The clever Brexiteers getting one over the EU :rolleyes:

As you say, the irony....

listermint

dogbert27 wrote: »

The clever Brexiteers getting one over the EU :rolleyes:

As you say, the irony....

Who said they were brexiteers ?

NI voted against Brexit.

dogbert27

listermint wrote: »

Who said they were brexiteers ?

NI voted against Brexit.

They highlighted loyalists in their post.

A majority did, there was still those who voted for it.

CelticRambler

McGiver wrote: »

listermint wrote: »

These people will have to pull their finger out of their arse and start making proper decisions. Either go home or normalise their citizenship or working visa. There is no other options. No one is coming to rescue them and the luxury to live and work and holiday freely in 27 EU nations is gone forever or until such a time when the UK acts like an adult and engages completely in the EU project.

Not necessarily. They can just join the EEA:
1. Sign here please from now on (all EU laws)
2. Annual fee
3. Freedom of movement

Individuals - those about whom I was posting and listermint replying - can't opt to join the EEA off their own bat.

My friend, just turned 25, is the "perfect" Brexit victim - she's as English as they come, an Oxford grad to boot, but a true European as well. I first met her in a field in France and put her to work selling CDs for Mairtín O'Connor (barefoot in the rain! :pac: ). These days, she spends 11 months of the year in the EU, but she's still at that stage of being not-quite-a-student-not-quite-settled, so she has next to no chance of meeting the criteria for a working visa because she hasn't been alive long enough to claim residency, has a typical insecure young adult job, and - ultimate irony - if you didn't hear her speak in a posh English accent, you couldn't tell her apart from the gang of young Europeans she hangs out with. She's British, but not the least bit "exceptional" in the pejorative sense - or for the purposes of ousting a European from the jobs market.

The Brexiters voted to put an end to migration, and that's what they've done - for their own people. There's a whole generation of young, enthusiastic British Europhiles who are going to pay for that ... while the UK continues to import thousands of brown and black non-Christian immigrants. :rolleyes: )

steddyeddy

The UK suffers largest output fall in 300 years. Yes this is certainly covid related, however, it's foolish to assume that Brexit doesn't at least play some part. I'm convinced that the UK will be destroyed economically because of Brexit.

Banana Republic 1

dogbert27 wrote: »

They highlighted loyalists in their post.

A majority did, there was still those who voted for it.

They have now been shafted by Johnson I wonder if that will al be forgotten in time for the next election.

The Raging Bile Duct

steddyeddy wrote: »

The UK suffers largest output fall in 300 years. Yes this is certainly covid related, however, it's foolish to assume that Brexit doesn't at least play some part. I'm convinced that the UK will be destroyed economically because of Brexit.

The UK's GDP fell by 11.3%. Ireland's has fallen by 2.5% - it was estimated to fall by 10.5%.

Ireland's export economy seems to have held up well and actually grown - I think this is dominated by multinationals - while the domestic economy has been hammered. Maybe someone else can correct me on this.

volchitsa

listermint wrote: »

Who said they were brexiteers ?

NI voted against Brexit.

Lots of them voted against Brexit,TBF - I meant it was ironic because they were loyalists who considered themselves to be British, but as soon as any little difficulty arose, suddenly they're claiming a nationality they swore they never wanted anything to do with. This was in the days after the vote, no real problems had even been identified at that point.

You don't find it ironic to see them suddenly deciding they're Irish? Why do we still have all the problems with the border question, in that case?

fly_agaric

volchitsa wrote: »

Lots of them voted against Brexit,TBF - I meant it was ironic because they were loyalists who considered themselves to be British, but as soon as any little difficulty arose, suddenly they're claiming a nationality they swore they never wanted anything to do with. This was in the days after the vote, no real problems had even been identified at that point.

You don't find it ironic to see them suddenly deciding they're Irish? Why do we still have all the problems with the border question, in that case?

Yes, it is ironic. Lots of irony in Brexit.
I'm curious, if you have personal experience do you have any anecdotal insight into the mindset/thinking there (as regards getting an Irish passport)?

I'd be imagining if they are "loyalists" they'd have gone with the DUP view and supported Brexit all the way along (incl. the absolutist/extreme version of it that Conservative party have executed since the 2016 vote).

My guess was:

"I voted to f-ck NI nationalists royally and destabilise the GFA and now the fools down South give me a passport I can use to dodge any personal blowback from my vote when I need to!"

but I admit I'm probably not a very nice/charitable person and a complete cynic with a dim view of NI loyalists.

Brussels Sprout

5 weeks to go. Honestly I thought there would be more of a fuss about this at this stage.

The BBC homepage doesn't appear to have any stories on it (although I think I'm seeing the international version of that site but still...).
The RTE homepage has a Barnier story as one of the less prominent stories.

Professor Moriarty

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

5 weeks to go. Honestly I thought there would be more of a fuss about this at this stage.

The BBC homepage doesn't appear to have any stories on it (although I think I'm seeing the international version of that site but still...).
The RTE homepage has a Barnier story as one of the less prominent stories.

You're reading the wrong news media. Top headline right now in The Express:
"Von der Leyen triggers emergency no-deal Brexit plans after Barnier's alarming update
BRUSSELS has been ordered to trigger immediate preparations for a no-deal Brexit after Michel Barnier issued a gloomy warning over the future of the trade talks."

MBSnr

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

5 weeks to go. Honestly I thought there would be more of a fuss about this at this stage.

The BBC homepage doesn't appear to have any stories on it (although I think I'm seeing the international version of that site but still...).
The RTE homepage has a Barnier story as one of the less prominent stories.

I think outside of those on forums, on twitter and political websites most UK people (and to be honest a fair few Irish) just don't care and the UK media doesn't necessary bother as a consequence.

I no longer mention the Brexit topic to most friends and family in the UK. It was apparent years ago it was pointless. No point rattling cages and causing issues, so it's left hanging - the elephant in the room. The UK friends general indifference to it (as they're not in Ireland) basically told me they aren't very interested, even though they know it'll be a problem for Ireland. Even at this stage the few family Leaver voters I know are probably aware it's gone horribly wrong but it's a subject that still can't be mentioned and it's just dismissed...

lawred2

MBSnr wrote: »

I think outside of those on forums, on twitter and political websites most UK people (and to be honest a fair few Irish) just don't care and the UK media doesn't necessary bother as a consequence.

I no longer mention the Brexit topic to most friends and family in the UK. It was apparent years ago it was pointless. No point rattling cages and causing issues, so it's left hanging - the elephant in the room. The UK friends general indifference to it (as they're not in Ireland) basically told me they aren't very interested, even though they know it'll be a problem for Ireland. Even at this stage the few family Leaver voters I know are probably aware it's gone horribly wrong but it's a subject that still can't be mentioned and it's just dismissed...

sister lives in London (she's been in the UK since she started college) - effectively her entire adult life has been in the UK - but Brexit isn't even a topic for them..

they just roll their eyes when it's mentioned

I can pretty much gather from her that the general sentiment is that nothing much will change.

Incredible to me but there you go.

Leroy42

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

5 weeks to go. Honestly I thought there would be more of a fuss about this at this stage.

The BBC homepage doesn't appear to have any stories on it (although I think I'm seeing the international version of that site but still...).
The RTE homepage has a Barnier story as one of the less prominent stories.

Sunak didn't even mention Brexit during his recent spending review. It is like it isn't happening at all.

I remember thinking back when Covid first started to hit, that it would be a great excuse for the UK government to hide the impact of Brexit, and thus far that is proving to be the case.

Anything and everything will be blamed on Covid. When asked about it, HMG ministers of spokespeople simply stick to the line that a deal can still be done, but it never followed up by asking what the actual impact of losing previous EU status will actually have.

Emily Thornbery did a great example of trying to cut through that this week when she asked yet again, what the comparative effects of the new UK-Japan trade deal were compared to the EU-Japan deal, since Liz Truss continues to exclaim that it is a great deal. The government either don't know, or won't give the details.

Zubeneschamali

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

Ireland's export economy seems to have held up well and actually grown - I think this is dominated by multinationals - while the domestic economy has been hammered.

This is the same in the UK, COVID hit the domestic service economy.

But now Brexit is going to hammer the parts of their economy that COVID missed, trade and exports.

MBSnr

lawred2 wrote: »

sister lives in London (she's been in the UK since she started college) - effectively her entire adult life has been in the UK - but Brexit isn't even a topic for them..

they just roll their eyes when it's mentioned

I can pretty much gather from her that the general sentiment is that nothing much will change.

Incredible to me but there you go.

Same for me. They think I'm overly obsessed by it (I am a little perhaps alright... :eek:)...

I rem at the time mentioning the NI border issue (I was sitting in their house in London watching Blair and Major on the news warning about it) and I said that's going to be a major problem you know.
Ah no, sure it'll be grand was the response...

Leroy42

lawred2 wrote: »

sister lives in London (she's been in the UK since she started college) - effectively her entire adult life has been in the UK - but Brexit isn't even a topic for them..

they just roll their eyes when it's mentioned

I can pretty much gather from her that the general sentiment is that nothing much will change.

Incredible to me but there you go.

Yeah, they all seem to believe that a last minute deal will be done (it might) and that that deal will mean that nothing changes (it won't).

There is little doubt that the UK public, as evidenced by the fact that so few business appear to be even close to ready (or in some cases even considered that they might need to prepare). I think Give said a few months ago it was something like 35% had even considered doing something.

Somehow, everything will simply remain the way it was. It is the continuation of the very narrative of Brexit. Somehow everything is going to change, except for everything that they actually like.

Harry Palmr

Related news, a new six day service between Rosslare and Dunkirk has just been announced (as expected) by DFDS. Probably the first of a few such announcements.

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/new-ferry-service-announced-between-ireland-and-france/

A new ferry service between Ireland and France has been announced which will offer “lorries and their drivers direct and paperless transport between EU countries”.

On January 2, 2021, Danish international shipping and logistics firm DFDS will commence sailings on a new freight ferry route between Rosslare in the Republic of Ireland Dunkirk in northern France.

The route will be serviced by three ferries, each with a capacity for up to 125 lorries and their drivers in Covid-19 safe single cabins.

There will be six weekly departures from each port, either in the afternoon or evening, with a crossing time of 24 hours.

This will bring the number of direct sailings between Rosslare and Europe up to 13 every week during peak times.

CelticRambler

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

5 weeks to go. Honestly I thought there would be more of a fuss about this at this stage.

But sure didn't Boris get Brexit done back in January? And sure we hardly noticed any difference - what's there to be fussing about now, when all they're talking about is a who catches a few fish ... :rolleyes:

I genuinely believe that the vast majority of the British really don't have any idea of what's at stake if Johnson & Co. continue with their futile machinations for the domestic audience and the UK default's into an "Australia-style" (aka North-Korea-style) no-deal status on Jan 1st.

So far, almost all the reactions I've heard or read about are "we'll be grand ... I can live without [insert obviously exotic product here] ... sure you have to queue for ages at the regional airport anyway ... it'll be no different that selling to America ..." Some individuals do seem to have informed themselves of what they need to do for their business, but they're completely ignorant of what it'll mean for their life in general, where so many aspects of that are dependent on someone else's business.

CelticRambler

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

The UK's GDP fell by 11.3%. Ireland's has fallen by 2.5% - it was estimated to fall by 10.5%.

Ireland's export economy seems to have held up well and actually grown - I think this is dominated by multinationals - while the domestic economy has been hammered. Maybe someone else can correct me on this.

In a time of global pandemic, it helps to have a healthy pharma and medical devices sector!

An Ciarraioch

Barnier will offer the UK 15-18% of the current EU quota, as a mixture of flatfish, cod, mackerel etc - I can see this being a scenario whereby that is haggled up to 30-35%, and Johnson presents still ceding two-thirds of the current quota as a "great victory"!

Patser

Barnier has made an offer on UK fishing worth about €117 million a year.

Gives Johnson his big headline victory.
Hopefully gets the EU a Level playing field.
All for €118million.....

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1127/1180825-brexit/

ancapailldorcha

lawred2 wrote: »

sister lives in London (she's been in the UK since she started college) - effectively her entire adult life has been in the UK - but Brexit isn't even a topic for them..

they just roll their eyes when it's mentioned

I can pretty much gather from her that the general sentiment is that nothing much will change.

Incredible to me but there you go.

Fairly common attitude here to be honest. I think covid has deadened a lot of people's sense and just left them numb and that's not unreasonable. My understanding from my contact in the civil service is that preparations have been made to keep the essentials coming in.

That's not to say that this will prevent issues with lorry queues, inflation, etc. Just that it's not going to be immediately become apparent what sort of a disaster Brexit will be. It's be economic attrition over time as opposed to economic catastrophe.

That said, I say that as someone with another 18 months on their employment contract with said contract already having the requisite funds allocated and an EU passport so I won't be representative of those whose jobs are most vulnerable. Psychologically, I've lost my capacity to care if this country enters the completely artificial disaster that Brexit seems certain to cause. They voted in 2019 with all the facts to keep faith with the party who initiated the whole process so it's completely legitimate now as far as I'm concerned. My biggest issue would be shipping my gaming PC back home to rural Ireland so I'm fortunate enough in that regard.

It's sad. I like living here. The UK has a wonderfully interesting history and you can integrate as much or as little as you like so long as you're not interfering with other people. It's got some world-beating scenery, it's wonderfully diverse and most towns would have everything you need or want but there have been two elections since the referendum so some form of Brexit needs to happen before anything changes in political discourse here.