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Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)
Comments
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It's possible to see the advantages of being in the EU as opposed to not being in it. Criticism of the EU shouldn't result in mass attack.A few more British posters with different views to the general consensus here to encourage healthy debate is a good thing isn't it?If my opinion is that offensive I'm willing to refrain from posting.
Nobody is asking you to not give your opinion, but they are asking you for the basis of that opinion.
You seem to struggle to provide any basis for many of the opinions you make, "the EU is floundering" is all well and good to say but appears to have no basis in fact.
When that is highlighted to you you get all defensive and call yourself under attack. It is very much like the Brexiteers do.0 -
It's possible to see the advantages of being in the EU as opposed to not being in it. Criticism of the EU shouldn't result in mass attack.A few more British posters with different views to the general consensus here to encourage healthy debate is a good thing isn't it?If my opinion is that offensive I'm willing to refrain from posting.
Contrarian positions for the sake of fomenting debate is not a laudable thing and is certainly not something that is required to declare and discuss issues on the likes of this forum where there are standards that need to be upheld.
This isn't Question Time.
The posters on here have displayed the patience of Job this morning trying to tease out what you're on about.
I'd imagine this is exactly what its like for Barnier dealing with the UK team.
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Can you show us where or how the "EU is floundering" please?0 -
Nobody is asking you to not give your opinion, but they are asking you for the basis of that opinion.
You seem to struggle to provide any basis for many of the opinions you make, "the EU is floundering" is all well and good to say but appears to have no basis in fact.
When that is highlighted to you you get all defensive and call yourself under attack. It is very much like the Brexiteers do.
In this link Monsieur Barnier complains that the UK is 'using fishing as a bargaining tool '.Isn't that how it works?Why whinge about it?There are numerous other articles about how Monsieur Barnier appears to be panicking available on line.
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/14045-barnier-pushes-for-october-brexit-trade-deal-says-uk-has-not-engaged-constructively0 -
If my opinion is that offensive I'm willing to refrain from posting.
It's not your opinion that is the problem, it is when you are challenged on how you came to that opinion and very answers are given that posters get frustrated.
Again, you said Michel Barnier was floundering because the UK is sticking to its position. How are you able to form that opinion when he has been consistent throughout,
Michel Barnier: UK risks no-deal on post-Brexit trade unless it compromisesThe EU's chief negotiator says the UK will "have to move" if it wants a post-Brexit trade deal by the end of 2020.
Michel Barnier said he was "worried and disappointed" about the lack of concessions from his British counterpart, David Frost, after the pair met in London on Tuesday.
And he said the end of October was a "strict deadline" to finalise an agreement for next year.
No 10 said it was "clear [a deal] will not be easy to achieve".
The prime minister's official spokesman said "major difficulties remain" between the two sides, but the UK government was keeping in close contact with the EU.
The UK left the EU on 31 January, but entered a transition period until 31 December while the two sides negotiate a trade agreement.
The clock is ticking. David Frost will be heading up his new post as National Security Adviser soon as well. The warnings about not getting a deal has been getting louder from the EU, and if the UK isn't careful we will all find out who was right in the end, the doomsayers or the Brexiteers.0 -
In this link Monsieur Barnier complains that the UK is 'using fishing as a bargaining tool '.Isn't that how it works?Why whinge about it?There are numerous other articles about how Monsieur Barnier appears to be panicking available on line.
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/14045-barnier-pushes-for-october-brexit-trade-deal-says-uk-has-not-engaged-constructively
Nope. From the article it he said the UK was using EU fishermen as a bargaining chip.
"On fishing, Barnier said the UK was using EU fishermen as a bargaining chip in negotiations: "we fully understand and respect the UK will become an independent coastal state outside the Common Fisheries Policy, but we will not accept that the work and livelihoods of these men and women be used as a bargaining chip."0 -
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It's not your opinion that is the problem, it is when you are challenged on how you came to that opinion and very answers are given that posters get frustrated.
Again, you said Michel Barnier was floundering because the UK is sticking to its position. How are you able to form that opinion when he has been consistent throughout,
Michel Barnier: UK risks no-deal on post-Brexit trade unless it compromises
The clock is ticking. David Frost will be heading up his new post as National Security Adviser soon as well. The warnings about not getting a deal has been getting louder from the EU, and if the UK isn't careful we will all find out who was right in the end, the doomsayers or the Brexiteers.
It may be I'm influenced by the UK media but swallowing everything the EU comes out with without question isn't good either.I repeat my hopes of an EU-UK deal asap.0 -
It may be I'm influenced by the UK media but swallowing everything the EU comes out with without question isn't good either.I repeat my hopes of an EU-UK deal asap.
You do realise that most of us consume the same UK media as you do. So I don't know how you can imply we are swallowing everything the EU says when it is the same things you read. Unless you are implying the likes of Tony Connelly is just selling us the EU position without proper analysis. Surely that is not what you are suggesting?
Look at your link and mine, it is the same story but you came out with the idea that Barnier is floundering. I don't think you have answered how you came to this position properly as the link you provide doesn't point to anything like it. You mentioned how he has gone back to EU leaders but have not provided context or links to show how you reached that conclusion yet, at least not in my opinion. You have gotten a reaction this morning at least though.0 -
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It may be I'm influenced by the UK media but swallowing everything the EU comes out with without question isn't good either.I repeat my hopes of an EU-UK deal asap.
Mod: You've already had one mod warning this morning. This will be the last one. Either engage with the topic constructively or do not post please. Simply repeating yourself and attempting to wind up posters is not on here.
I've deleted a few tangential posts.The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.
Leviticus 19:34
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Do the EU “need” a deal that badly Is it a nice to have as opposed to a must have for them. To be honest I think the LPF issue will be hard to overcome. If I was the U.K. Government, I would be very reluctant to give up the right to safeguard jobs by pumping money in if required. However I totally understand the EU position where that is unacceptable. It will be hard to square that circle.
Don’t know much about fish but, in the case of no deal, do UK fishermen Have the ability to catch all the fish that are caught today in their waters. If not, is it too simplistic to think that if they are not caught in U.K. waters they will just swim into EU waters? I am obviously missing something here.
I know the landbridge is a problem for Irish truckers. However there are going to be border requirements from 1st January regardless of whether there is a deal or not. It seems certain that there will be major delays at their borders due to the U.K. control system not being implemented. I suspect that it will take much longer than “months” to overcome these delays. Would that mean that for a prolonged period the sea path to France would be shorter than the landbridge and you would also have the advantage of avoiding border controls and paperwork.
I suppose I don’t fully understand why Barnier is trying to push the U.K. at every chance. Why is it that the U.K. threaten to walk away but the EU don’t. Why would Barnier not suggest that talks are abandoned for a period of 6 or 12 months, let Brexit kick in and see what the real effects are. I realise that 11% or so of our exports go to the U.K. but is this not likely to continue in the short-term until alternative supply sources are identified (albeit with tariffs). Would this not focus minds all around. Maybe the U.K. need to have full sovereignty for a period and, once they see the effect of Brexit, they can decide if it is beneficial to row back and negotiate a deal at a later stage0 -
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Looking at brexit headlines(not the Express!)and particularly regarding Monsieur Barnier,he appears unable to deal with the UK stance and has asked for guidance from his masters on what to do.Guaranteed to encourage the brexiteers as it's a potential weakness in the unwieldy negotiating style of the EU imo.
This is nothing new for either side at every stage of the process - just as Raab, Davis, Barclay and now Frost have consulted with the UK Government before deciding if such a condition is acceptable, so Barnier does likewise with the Commission.0 -
As for fishing, interesting to read Richard North analyse the speech, where he states that Irish and European fishermen had access to British waters that long predated 1973, so the situation in 2021 will be unprecedented:
http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87719#disqus_thread0 -
It may be I'm influenced by the UK media but swallowing everything the EU comes out with without question isn't good either.I repeat my hopes of an EU-UK deal asap.
Rob I sort of understand where your coming from. While the UK and IRL speak the same language we are very different peoples. I feel IRL has more in common with our European neighbours than the UK. My observations of how the EU responds to a situation is very different to how the UK responds.
The EU is restrained and mature, it doesn't look to score points, it doesn't challenge the UK politicians for the misinformation that's being communicated to the UK people, it doesn't comment as it's none of their business. It knows the final decision will be the UK parliament following negotiations so their focus is there.
The UK on the other hand is very dramatic, look at parliament, it's like looking at a bunch of 12 yr old's with all the shouting and talking over people, extremely childish. The Johnson gets elected, being compared to Churchill made his day, again it's like a scene from star wars, where the evil EU (darth vader) is trying to suppress the empire.
There is no need for bluster and playing to the audience, the EU will calmly deal with UK and Russia, it's response will be measured and considered. You should understand the difference and not expect the EU to react like how Johnson and his merry band of loons do.
The EU has laid it's position out to the UK, it's the basic requirements for a basic deal. The UK only has to say yes or no, fine details and small manoeuvrings will happen in specific areas and the EU will negotiate in these areas. But without the big picture basic stuff can't be agreed there is nothing to talk about.
The EU does want a deal, what your seeing from Barnier is not stress or worry, it's bewilderment that Johnson thinks this is a game of chicken, to see who blinks first. The UK has very little influence with the large trading blocks, USA, China, EU and needs to understand it's new position in the world, a second tier nation.0 -
In this link Monsieur Barnier complains that the UK is 'using fishing as a bargaining tool '.Isn't that how it works?Why whinge about it?There are numerous other articles about how Monsieur Barnier appears to be panicking available on line.
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/14045-barnier-pushes-for-october-brexit-trade-deal-says-uk-has-not-engaged-constructively
What I take from that article are the following lines:The EU's Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier has given an update on the state of play in EU-UK Brexit trade negotiations, confirming that there has been little progress in the core areas of fishing rights, the 'level playing field' provisions and future governance.
Factual statement, no sense of panic or floundering. Those are our (the EU's) blue lines, and there's no point in the UK whinging about them being difficult areas to resolve because they will underpin every other aspect of a trade deal for the foreseeable future." ... We must have a final agreement by the end of October if we're to have a new partnership in place by January 1," said Barnier.
Factual statement, no sense of panic or floudering. We, on this forum, have known about these dates since last year.Barnier said the UK has not "engaged constructively" and expressed particular disappointment on a lack fo progress on the outstanding issues of the Level Playing Field, fishing rights and governance.
See above. If the UK had engaged constructively, I'm sure there would be plenty of headlines to back up their position; in their absence we can only join M. Barnier in expressing our own disappointment that GB is not taking things seriously."Despite current tensions ... I continue to think, despite current difficulties, that PM Johnson wants an agreement with the EU. We will do everything in our power to reach an agreement until the very, very end," said Barnier.
M. Barnier's words to conclude the article. Once again, where's the floundering or panic or threat in that statement?
The UK says it wants a deal but won't agree the ground rules; the UK says it wants to re-negotiate what's already been agreed; the UK says it doesn't want to extend the timeline, but wants a trade deal similar to that "already agreed with likeminded countries" - so one that would typically take up to ten years to negotiate. That's floundering.0 -
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They will run into the same problems in their other FTAs as well though; see Boeing vs. Airbus in state aid case in WTO between USA and EU. State aid is one of those things that have limits in any FTA.Do the EU “need” a deal that badly Is it a nice to have as opposed to a must have for them. To be honest I think the LPF issue will be hard to overcome. If I was the U.K. Government, I would be very reluctant to give up the right to safeguard jobs by pumping money in if required. However I totally understand the EU position where that is unacceptable. It will be hard to square that circle.
Catch it but the problem is they can't sell it to EU and they currently export over 80% to EU. EU has a requirement that any imported fish has to be managed according to a sustainability plan which means if UK wants to export fish to EU they will need to sign up to an agreed qouta plan basically or they don't get to sell the fish they caught to EU. This is all drama and playing to domestic audience (both sides) and toys out of tram stuff however if you look at the actual value of trade and importance to the economy. It's one of the few areas UK have potentially some cards in their hand in the negotiation however.Don’t know much about fish but, in the case of no deal, do UK fishermen Have the ability to catch all the fish that are caught today in their waters. If not, is it too simplistic to think that if they are not caught in U.K. waters they will just swim into EU waters? I am obviously missing something here.
TIR trucking system was there long before however which was designed to ensure transit (which is what's relevant here) of trucks through countries with minimal fuzz. The question mark is how the UK ports will handle things (i.e. empty trucks & TIR trucks from Ireland may need a special queue because they will not be stopped in Belgium/France but UK based trucks would etc.) which is of course nothing that's prepared. That's were the snafus will happen in practice.I know the landbridge is a problem for Irish truckers. However there are going to be border requirements from 1st January regardless of whether there is a deal or not. It seems certain that there will be major delays at their borders due to the U.K. control system not being implemented. I suspect that it will take much longer than “months” to overcome these delays. Would that mean that for a prolonged period the sea path to France would be shorter than the landbridge and you would also have the advantage of avoiding border controls and paperwork.
EU's view is very simple; we do one deal that cover all the areas because we've done the one deal per question already with Switzerland and it's a hot mess we don't want to repeat. UK wants to make mini deals instead so they can pick the areas they want and for all intent and purpose ignore the rest. The UK plan is basically we agree the stuff we want, stall the rest and come October say "Well lets sign off the stuff we agreed while we continue negotiate the rest". The reason Barnier is not walking away is simply because it's not in his mandate to do so; his mandate is to negotiate the Brexit deal in good faith if possible. Hence come 1st Jan 2021 his run is over in theory (in practice I expect the commission will give him a long term role to finish a deal).I suppose I don’t fully understand why Barnier is trying to push the U.K. at every chance. Why is it that the U.K. threaten to walk away but the EU don’t. Why would Barnier not suggest that talks are abandoned for a period of 6 or 12 months, let Brexit kick in and see what the real effects are. I realise that 11% or so of our exports go to the U.K. but is this not likely to continue in the short-term until alternative supply sources are identified (albeit with tariffs). Would this not focus minds all around. Maybe the U.K. need to have full sovereignty for a period and, once they see the effect of Brexit, they can decide if it is beneficial to row back and negotiate a deal at a later stage0 -
I'd prefer to have remained in the EU but recent events are exposing it's weaknesses.It's all well and good talking tough with the UK but if you haven't got the bottle to back it up all the tough talking in the world counts for nothing.Combine that with the latest novichok incident and Russia calling EU nations out it's a rough time for them.
Just thought I'd come back to his having read this fantastic quote today elsewhere . It trigged me to come back to thisAfter British citizens were attacked by a chemical weapon, Boris Johnson left a NATO summit on Russian sanctions, gave his security detail the slip, flew to Italy & met an ex KGB officer whose son he’s just ennobled. That’s what’s outrageous. That’s what needs to be explained0 -
A very interesting post and I have to say I agree with a fair bit of it(not all of it though!)I've looked back at the last few pages of posts here and there are multiple posts based on opinion and a fair few discussing outlandish hypothetical situations.Not one poster is pulled up for this until me today for my opinion based posts.I think I will refrain from posting here for a while...Rob I sort of understand where your coming from. While the UK and IRL speak the same language we are very different peoples. I feel IRL has more in common with our European neighbours than the UK. My observations of how the EU responds to a situation is very different to how the UK responds.
The EU is restrained and mature, it doesn't look to score points, it doesn't challenge the UK politicians for the misinformation that's being communicated to the UK people, it doesn't comment as it's none of their business. It knows the final decision will be the UK parliament following negotiations so their focus is there.
The UK on the other hand is very dramatic, look at parliament, it's like looking at a bunch of 12 yr old's with all the shouting and talking over people, extremely childish. The Johnson gets elected, being compared to Churchill made his day, again it's like a scene from star wars, where the evil EU (darth vader) is trying to suppress the empire.
There is no need for bluster and playing to the audience, the EU will calmly deal with UK and Russia, it's response will be measured and considered. You should understand the difference and not expect the EU to react like how Johnson and his merry band of loons do.
The EU has laid it's position out to the UK, it's the basic requirements for a basic deal. The UK only has to say yes or no, fine details and small manoeuvrings will happen in specific areas and the EU will negotiate in these areas. But without the big picture basic stuff can't be agreed there is nothing to talk about.
The EU does want a deal, what your seeing from Barnier is not stress or worry, it's bewilderment that Johnson thinks this is a game of chicken, to see who blinks first. The UK has very little influence with the large trading blocks, USA, China, EU and needs to understand it's new position in the world, a second tier nation.0 -
A very interesting post and I have to say I agree with a fair bit of it(not all of it though!)I've looked back at the last few pages of posts here and there are multiple posts based on opinion and a fair few discussing outlandish hypothetical situations.Not one poster is pulled up for this until me today for my opinion based posts.I think I will refrain from posting here for a while...
No comment on my post then which is completely at odds with what you just agreed with
You know the bit where your PM is in hock with various Russians and acting completely inappropriately especially for a foreign secretary....
No ?0 -
listermint wrote: »No comment on my post then which is completely at odds with what you just agreed with
You know the bit where your PM is in hock with various Russians and acting completely inappropriately especially for a foreign secretary....
No ?
I think Johnson is a blustering charlatan who has been exposed as a fraud.I'm upset so many people have been taken in by his lies.0 -
I think Johnson is a blustering charlatan who has been exposed as a fraud.I'm upset so many people have been taken in by his lies.
And yet you think the EU is floundering by pointing out that Johnson is not taking this seriously?
Do you think Johnson is completely different behind the scenes and only appears incompetent and lying to the public?0 -
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I think Johnson is a blustering charlatan who has been exposed as a fraud.I'm upset so many people have been taken in by his lies.
But his lies are printed on his calling card.
He lied when he worked for the Times and got sacked over it. So he moved to the Telegraph, who relished his lies about the EU and the bendy bananas and prawn flavoured crisps. He was well known for the lies.
Then he became Mayor for London, where he built a garden bridge, only he didn't, and it cost millions for nothing.
He campaigned for Brexit with a big lie on the side a the red bus.
He became MP for Harrow and said he would lie down in front of the bulldozers if Heathrow third runway went ahead, only he ran away when the vote came up.
He said he would be rather be dead in a ditch rather than ask for an extension to the Art 50 procedure as required by law. He did ask for the extension and as far as I know, he did not die in the ditch.
He campaigned in the GE 'to get Brexit done' with an 'oven ready Brexit' only that turned out to be an oven ready turkey, and based on a lie.
So how come the great British public did not see him as an inveterate liar? Something does not add up.0 -
Sam Russell wrote: »But his lies are printed on his calling card.
He lied when he worked for the Times and got sacked over it. So he moved to the Telegraph, who relished his lies about the EU and the bendy bananas and prawn flavoured crisps. He was well known for the lies.
Then he became Mayor for London, where he built a garden bridge, only he didn't, and it cost millions for nothing.
He campaigned for Brexit with a big lie on the side a the red bus.
He became MP for Harrow and said he would lie down in front of the bulldozers if Heathrow third runway went ahead, only he ran away when the vote came up.
He said he would be rather be dead in a ditch rather than ask for an extension to the Art 50 procedure as required by law. He did ask for the extension and as far as I know, he did not die in the ditch.
He campaigned in the GE 'to get Brexit done' with an 'oven ready Brexit' only that turned out to be an oven ready turkey, and based on a lie.
So how come the great British public did not see him as an inveterate liar? Something does not add up.
Might be something to do with newspaper headlines.
You know the same newspaper headlines that were raised earlier as factual in relation to how the EU is floundering and Barnier doesn't know how to deal with the UK.0 -
Sam Russell wrote: »So how come the great British public did not see him as an inveterate liar? Something does not add up.
It's a fascinating topic but this isn't the place for it.
Same in the US, the second amendment is argued for to keep the government in check, the people who support it the most, want to see unidentified federal forces stopping people exercising their first amendment rights.
In both cases, I think it comes down to people taking the position of 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend' approach.
The swivelling Johnson and Gove and Ian Duncan Smith have done on the WA would be embarrassing to anyone with any morals but it is evident they do not suffer from such a burden.0 -
And yet you think the EU is floundering by pointing out that Johnson is not taking this seriously?
Do you think Johnson is completely different behind the scenes and only appears incompetent and lying to the public?
Perhaps Johnson's cavalier approach has unsettled people within the EU,it's certainly got me very anxious.The only explanation I can see is Johnson is indeed a complete blustering incompetent or he has something up his sleeve.I doubt it's the second scenario as he appears naive,indecisive and is totally reliant on the odious Cummings.0 -
Sam Russell wrote: »But his lies are printed on his calling card.
He lied when he worked for the Times and got sacked over it. So he moved to the Telegraph, who relished his lies about the EU and the bendy bananas and prawn flavoured crisps. He was well known for the lies.
Then he became Mayor for London, where he built a garden bridge, only he didn't, and it cost millions for nothing.
He campaigned for Brexit with a big lie on the side a the red bus.
He became MP for Harrow and said he would lie down in front of the bulldozers if Heathrow third runway went ahead, only he ran away when the vote came up.
He said he would be rather be dead in a ditch rather than ask for an extension to the Art 50 procedure as required by law. He did ask for the extension and as far as I know, he did not die in the ditch.
He campaigned in the GE 'to get Brexit done' with an 'oven ready Brexit' only that turned out to be an oven ready turkey, and based on a lie.
So how come the great British public did not see him as an inveterate liar? Something does not add up.
Probably years of being told how we were being taken for mugs by a totalitarian Brussels and lazy foreigners wanting to live it up in the UK on benefits.All of which,along with him saying we'll save £350 million a week was all lies.0 -
Perhaps Johnson's cavalier approach has unsettled people within the EU,it's certainly got me very anxious.The only explanation I can see is Johnson is indeed a complete blustering incompetent or he has something up his sleeve.I doubt it's the second scenario as he appears naive,indecisive and is totally reliant on the odious Cummings.
the EU is set on for no deal, no ones unsettled..0 -
Perhaps Johnson's cavalier approach has unsettled people within the EU,it's certainly got me very anxious.The only explanation I can see is Johnson is indeed a complete blustering incompetent or he has something up his sleeve.I doubt it's the second scenario as he appears naive,indecisive and is totally reliant on the odious Cummings.
Yeah, I think that is the only thing that is holding the UK together at all on Brexit, but the example of the WA would suggest that far from delivery a coup at the last minute, it is more likely that Johnson will cave and spin it.
What might stop him from caving is the hard brexiteers (ERG, IDS etc) and given that he is already in deep trouble given his terrible performance as PM, he might opt to take the short term boost of 'delivering' no deal with the likely 'Rule Britannia" and 'Take that EU' headlines that will generate.
But in no reality does No Deal serve the UK better than a deal. They are currently openly clapping at the possibility of putting the CoL standing, and the economic return it delivers, in jeopardy in order to save fish!
But it is blind faith that something, anything might happen. That is all they have left. There is still, 4 years later, not one piece of planning or forecasting that portrays any form of Brexit as a positive for the UK.0 -
The only "up his sleeve" option he could possibly have is to no deal and try to blame the EU - I've a suspicion i can guess which side you'd believe if such a scenario arises. Let's see what they do.Perhaps Johnson's cavalier approach has unsettled people within the EU,it's certainly got me very anxious.The only explanation I can see is Johnson is indeed a complete blustering incompetent or he has something up his sleeve.I doubt it's the second scenario as he appears naive,indecisive and is totally reliant on the odious Cummings.0 -
The only "up his sleeve" option he could possibly have is to no deal and try to blame the EU - I've a suspicion i can guess which side you'd believe if such a scenario arises. Let's see what they do.
There's noting up a sleeve about that position, it's absolutely mainstream front and centre!!0 -
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How fishing waters would look next year:
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