Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

Patser wrote: »

Barnier has made an offer on UK fishing worth about €117 million a year.

Gives Johnson his big headline victory.
Hopefully gets the EU a Level playing field.
All for €118million.....

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1127/1180825-brexit/

By my reckoning, that's less than a week's worth of their net contributions to Brussels.

Leroy42

I certainly think the UK will win on the fish, the EU really have little real leverage on this particular area. It was something the UK had to trade to get access to the EU, thus it makes perfect sense they would get it back on leaving.

But, IMO, the EU have allowed it to be a main factor in the negotiations, when in reality it isn't. But it is very important to the UK and thus will use this fact, and dress it up as something more important to the EU than it actually is.


Why would the EU not listen to German Car makers but will give up things for the fishing fleets?

They will actually get more than they could have in terms of access, and get what they actually want which is level playing field etc.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

I certainly think the UK will win on the fish, the EU really have little real leverage on this particular area. It was something the UK had to trade to get access to the EU, thus it makes perfect sense they would get it back on leaving.

But, IMO, the EU have allowed it to be a main factor in the negotiations, when in reality it isn't. But it is very important to the UK and thus will use this fact, and dress it up as something more important to the EU than it actually is.


Why would the EU not listen to German Car makers but will give up things for the fishing fleets?

They will actually get more than they could have in terms of access, and get what they actually want which is level playing field etc.

I'm not so sure. Macron has been vocal about this and he's probably the loudest and most influential of the EU27. Then you have the Danes, the Spanish, the Dutch, the Belgians, the Norwegians and so on. Fish aren't just important to the UK.

I'd be waiting to see the nitty gritty of any deal before making a call myself. Some token concession for the tabloids and the resumption of the angling status quo seems likely to me.

Leroy42

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm not so sure. Macron has been vocal about this and he's probably the loudest and most influential of the EU27. Then you have the Danes, the Spanish, the Dutch, the Belgians, the Norwegians and so on. Fish aren't just important to the UK.

I'd be waiting to see the nitty gritty of any deal before making a call myself. Some token concession for the tabloids and the resumption of the angling status quo seems likely to me.

Macron has to be seen to be doing something. If they are allowed continued access, whatever the final % they can keep, that is a major win for the EU. For France etc. And remember that it isn't just the fleet itself. There are processing, markets, traders etc that are involved and they will all be relatively ok, compared to the alternative of no access.

Like Ireland, there is a cost to Brexit to this areas, and like Ireland there is really only mitigation that can be done, the damage cannot be avoided.

listermint

reading under the comments of Tony Connellys tweet on this would make your eyes bleed. There alot of brexiteers giving out about the paltry offering. Id imagine that mindset will be mirrored in cabinet.

I havent seen that many brexiteers turn up on Tonys tweets in a long time.

Strazdas

listermint wrote: »

reading under the comments of Tony Connellys tweet on this would make your eyes bleed. There alot of brexiteers giving out about the paltry offering. Id imagine that mindset will be mirrored in cabinet.

I havent seen that many brexiteers turn up on Tonys tweets in a long time.

Fish, fish, fish, that's all that matters to them.

None of them seem to be in business and they are definitely not involved in imports or exports.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

Macron has to be seen to be doing something. If they are allowed continued access, whatever the final % they can keep, that is a major win for the EU. For France etc. And remember that it isn't just the fleet itself. There are processing, markets, traders etc that are involved and they will all be relatively ok, compared to the alternative of no access.

Like Ireland, there is a cost to Brexit to this areas, and like Ireland there is really only mitigation that can be done, the damage cannot be avoided.

Sure but Macron has a veto and can ultimately sink the whole deal if he chooses to. We saw him act the same way with the last extension in 2019.

I agree regarding damage but each of the EU27 has their own set of priorities and they're going to act accordingly. Damage mitigation is important but so is protecting the single market.

Strazdas wrote: »

Fish, fish, fish, that's all that matters to them.

None of them seem to be in business and they are definitely not involved in imports or exports.

It's not fish, it's the idea of compromising that some here detest. If it were fish then access to the EU's market would be a much higher priority.

Strazdas

lawred2 wrote: »

sister lives in London (she's been in the UK since she started college) - effectively her entire adult life has been in the UK - but Brexit isn't even a topic for them..

they just roll their eyes when it's mentioned

I can pretty much gather from her that the general sentiment is that nothing much will change.

Incredible to me but there you go.

It almost explains the disaster coming down the tracks. They think they can take a sledgehammer to UK-EU relations, leave the SMCU and yet somehow everything will remain the same. A total lack of awareness of how interdependent the UK was with the EU.

declanflynn

Patser wrote: »

Barnier has made an offer on UK fishing worth about €117 million a year.

Gives Johnson his big headline victory.
Hopefully gets the EU a Level playing field.
All for €118million.....

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1127/1180825-brexit/

It was smart negotiating by the EU to get the uk to agree to a level playing field in return for less than the value of the fish finger market in england

Leroy42

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

117 million is nothing in grand scheme of things, EU already pays farmers billions every year literally not to grow/produce food, paying fishermen in France, Ireland, Belgium, Spain etc 117 million a year to catch less fish would be more of the same.

Now UK losing access to single market when it comes to services on the other hand would alone cost UK economy billions year on year and grow EU economy.

On the face of it it looks really quite clever. The UK have been demanding that the EU recognise the UK rights to control their waters, and this offer is very much agreeing to that. It also have the added benefit of some in the UK fishing industry basically getting almost 20% of the annual catch for free, since the EU boats will do all the work, take all the risks, just to hand it over to the UK.

It is clearly nowhere close to being enough, but it is a starting point, and now the UK, after crying for months that the EU are not trying, will have to reject it and thus No Deal is firmly at their feet.

Imreoir2

Patser wrote: »

Barnier has made an offer on UK fishing worth about €117 million a year.

Gives Johnson his big headline victory.
Hopefully gets the EU a Level playing field.
All for €118million.....

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1127/1180825-brexit/

A cheap victory for the EU. Fishing communities can easily be compensated by increasing subsidies and FLAGS funding.

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

On the face of it it looks really quite clever. The UK have been demanding that the EU recognise the UK rights to control their waters, and this offer is very much agreeing to that. It also have the added benefit of some in the UK fishing industry basically getting almost 20% of the annual catch for free, since the EU boats will do all the work, take all the risks, just to hand it over to the UK.

It is clearly nowhere close to being enough, but it is a starting point, and now the UK, after crying for months that the EU are not trying, will have to reject it and thus No Deal is firmly at their feet.

But the Brexit crowd seem to think the offer is utterly derisory if social media is anything to go by. I'm not convinced these guys are in the humour for any sort of compromise.

ancapailldorcha

Strazdas wrote: »

But the Brexit crowd seem to think the offer is utterly derisory if social media is anything to go by. I'm not convinced these guys are in the humour for any sort of compromise.

I don't think social media is anything other than an appalling metric. Polls would be a much better choice once they appear.

Imreoir2

Strazdas wrote: »

But the Brexit crowd seem to think the offer is utterly derisory if social media is anything to go by. I'm not convinced these guys are in the humour for any sort of compromise.

They were in no humour for a border in the Irish sea either, but then Borris said it was a great deal and they went into cheerleader mode.

EU offers 18%, Borris demands more, a figure is agreed in the middle. The EU makes a cheap concession to get a suitable deal, the Brexiters cheer, and the British economey goes to sleep with the fish.

Mezcita

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Fairly common attitude here to be honest. I think covid has deadened a lot of people's sense and just left them numb and that's not unreasonable. My understanding from my contact in the civil service is that preparations have been made to keep the essentials coming in.

That's not to say that this will prevent issues with lorry queues, inflation, etc. Just that it's not going to be immediately become apparent what sort of a disaster Brexit will be. It's be economic attrition over time as opposed to economic catastrophe.

That said, I say that as someone with another 18 months on their employment contract with said contract already having the requisite funds allocated and an EU passport so I won't be representative of those whose jobs are most vulnerable. Psychologically, I've lost my capacity to care if this country enters the completely artificial disaster that Brexit seems certain to cause. They voted in 2019 with all the facts to keep faith with the party who initiated the whole process so it's completely legitimate now as far as I'm concerned. My biggest issue would be shipping my gaming PC back home to rural Ireland so I'm fortunate enough in that regard.

It's sad. I like living here. The UK has a wonderfully interesting history and you can integrate as much or as little as you like so long as you're not interfering with other people. It's got some world-beating scenery, it's wonderfully diverse and most towns would have everything you need or want but there have been two elections since the referendum so some form of Brexit needs to happen before anything changes in political discourse here.

100%. Also living here and it's just not really a major discussion point for people I know.

Assuming Johnson gets a deal it can be spun in a way which will lead people to believe that they have just got one over the EU. I wonder what the tipping point will be in people's minds though?

Strazdas

Mezcita wrote: »

100%. Also living here and it's just not really a major discussion point for people I know.

Assuming Johnson gets a deal it can be spun in a way which will lead people to believe that they have just got one over the EU. I wonder what the tipping point will be in people's minds though?

Well, the border chaos at Dover (and other ports) is going to happen on January 1st no matter what. It has nothing to do with the trade deal.

Brussels Sprout

So is this fishing thing the final impediment in the way of a larger deal? If they get this resolved what's the broader agreement? Will the UK then have some form of single market access? Will there still be chaos in Kent in January?

Edit: I think you answered my second question in the post above Strazdas

Strazdas

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

So is this fishing thing the final impediment in the way of a larger deal? If they get this resolved what's the broader agreement? Will the UK then have some form of single market access? Will there still be chaos in Kent in January?

Edit: I think you answered my second question in the post above Strazdas

Yes, still a hard border (including with the island of Ireland) and a need for customs forms and customs declarations on all goods, no matter whether there is a trade deal or not.

Things are about to get very messy.

ancapailldorcha

Mezcita wrote: »

100%. Also living here and it's just not really a major discussion point for people I know.

Assuming Johnson gets a deal it can be spun in a way which will lead people to believe that they have just got one over the EU. I wonder what the tipping point will be in people's minds though?

I think Covid and Brexit fatigue will give Johnson considerable leeway. The tabloids can start screaming about Brexit betrayal but even if that's not entirely ineffectual, all it will do is split the Tory vote while Labour have an electable leader.

In a culture of 24-hour, disposable outrage, an unsatisfactory Brexit deal will just be replaced by something equally vapid very quickly. Nobody voted for increased trade. If they think they've left and that freedom of movement has ended that'll satisfy the vast majority of people.

Brussels Sprout

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, still a hard border (including with the island of Ireland) and a need for customs forms and customs declarations on all goods, no matter whether there is a trade deal or not.

Things are about to get very messy.

Wait what? There's going to be a hard border in Ireland in 5 weeks time regardless of what happens? Who's going to establish that?

Nate--IRL--

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Wait what? There's going to be a hard border in Ireland in 5 weeks time regardless of what happens? Who's going to establish that?

With the Island of Ireland, not in Ireland.

Nate

Strazdas

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Wait what? There's going to be a hard border in Ireland in 5 weeks time regardless of what happens? Who's going to establish that?

No, I meant a border down the Irish Sea. The entire island will be considered a separate customs entity to the UK after January 1st.

Brussels Sprout

Ah ok - say basically back to Boris's "oven ready deal" but with extra fish?

Patser

Positive sounds coming out about Northern Ireland (another big sticking point), and talk of a deal by mid-December. Jaysus that's cutting it close, and God help anyone trying to plan for next year


https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1332360480858501122

tanko

A deal is inevitable, it'll go down to the wire but it will be done.
Everyone sitting around the table knows that there is no way the UK economy could cope with the damage a no deal Brexit would involve. They are in a hopeless negotiating position.
Their economy is already a basket case because of Covid.
The deal will be more BRINO than BREXIT which was never a realistic proposition to start with.

Seth Brundle

Patser wrote: »

Positive sounds coming out about Northern Ireland (another big sticking point), and talk of a deal by mid-December. Jaysus that's cutting it close, and God help anyone trying to plan for next year


https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1332360480858501122

That really isn't giving the British businesses or the civil service much time to make any necessary arrangements. Whilst the EU may provide a phasing in period (which the transition period was really supposed to be), it just shows how badly the British government have managed this.
I can't think of any project in my life that was as badly planned and carried out as this.

Enzokk

Patser wrote: »

Positive sounds coming out about Northern Ireland (another big sticking point), and talk of a deal by mid-December. Jaysus that's cutting it close, and God help anyone trying to plan for next year


https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1332360480858501122

That isn't about the FTA but the Withdrawal Agreement, right? The outstanding issue on level playing field, fisheries and governance still remain. There is also scope to implement a deal temporarily once it has been agreed before the 1st January I believe, so negotiations can go on for most of the next month still and avoid a crash out. That is why most people seem relaxed about it all right now.

Infini

tanko wrote: »

A deal is inevitable, it'll go down to the wire but it will be done.
Everyone sitting around the table knows that there is no way the UK economy could cope with the damage a no deal Brexit would involve. They are in a hopeless negotiating position.
Their economy is already a basket case because of Covid.
The deal will be more BRINO than BREXIT which was never a realistic proposition to start with.

All well and good believing this and in most cases you'd be right but this British Goverment is the most incompetent and idiotic in modern times, none of this was needed and should have been sorted well before now and all it takes is something to bring the whole lot down by accident weather it be someone in the right position at the wrong time or something else.

The talk's honestly SHOULD be successful but they could easily fail as well if events over the last number of years have shown it's that rank stupidity can be found at any level of a government and it's so easy for someone to make a needless mess of things either by accident or with malicious intent. It aint over till everything is signed.

Patser

Enzokk wrote: »

That isn't about the FTA but the Withdrawal Agreement, right? The outstanding issue on level playing field, fisheries and governance still remain. There is also scope to implement a deal temporarily once it has been agreed before the 1st January I believe, so negotiations can go on for most of the next month still and avoid a crash out. That is why most people seem relaxed about it all right now.

So in theory, the sorting out of the withdrawal agreement could make a no deal exit more likely, as the back up plan is now sorted? Or this is something that has to be sorted one way or another

Strazdas

Patser wrote: »

So in theory, the sorting out of the withdrawal agreement could make a no deal exit more likely, as the back up plan is now sorted? Or this is something that has to be sorted one way or another

The Irish Protocol has to be implemented by the UK no matter what, so the issue of the trade deal is a completely separate one. It's rather unclear what the implications would be for a trade deal.