Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

Very interesting discussion in the past few pages on this thread. Great to see robust but polite debate. And, most importantly, informed.

Thargor

The EU should be twisting the knife here, there will never be another opportunity like this to strip all the Euro business from London and bring it into the EU, they should be playing hardball.

listermint

Thargor wrote: »

The EU should be twisting the knife here, there will never be another opportunity like this to strip all the Euro business from London and bring it into the EU, they should be playing hardball.

They don't need to do anything that's happening anyway.

McGiver

The offending clauses in the IMB are still in place. And then there's the Finance Bill with similar clauses.

Will the EU let any potential deal enter effect without this being rectified? Or do we consider it part of the WA and unrelated to the deal? That's unlikely.

I thought that commitment to a full implementation of the WA (the Irish protocol) is a precondition for any deal. Or will the deal contain a clause on the WA e.g. if the WA is reneged upon the deal automatically ceases to apply (a sort of a guillotine clause)?

McGiver

On the fish. I've found an interesting research done on the UK quota. Very interesting read.

The investigation found:

The five largest quota-holders control more than a third of UK fishing quota
Four of the top five belong to families on the Sunday Times Rich List
The fifth is a Dutch multinational whose UK subsidiary – North Atlantic Fishing Company – controls around a quarter of England’s fishing quota
Around half of England’s quota is ultimately owned by Dutch, Icelandic, or Spanish interests
More than half (13) of the top 25 quota holders have directors, shareholders, or vessel partners who were convicted of offences in Scotland’s £63m “black fish” scam – a huge, sophisticated fraud that saw trawlermen and fish processors working together to evade quota limits and land 170,000 tonnes of undeclared herring and mackerel

https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/10/11/fishing-quota-uk-defra-michael-gove/

FWIW - I can't see how anyone could consider a Brexit where the UK leaves the SM and CU as 'BRINO'.

It is as hard a Brexit as was ever, ever, even pretended to be discussed in 2015/2016.

Widdensushi

McGiver wrote: »

On the fish. I've found an interesting research done on the UK quota. Very interesting read.



https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/10/11/fishing-quota-uk-defra-michael-gove/

Norway has strict rules that make it virtually impossible for non Norwegian citizens to own fishing vessels, obviously non eu but Denmark has rules stopping anyone owning over a certain percentage of the overall quota, one had to sell some of his vessels last year after being found in breach I believe.

dogbert27

SNIP. No silly comments please.

Imreoir2

Thargor wrote: »

The EU should be twisting the knife here, there will never be another opportunity like this to strip all the Euro business from London and bring it into the EU, they should be playing hardball.

The kind of slim FTA the British are inexplicably aiming for seems likely to do the EUs work for them.

Zubeneschamali

tanko wrote: »

.
The deal will be more BRINO than BREXIT which was never a realistic proposition to start with.

Ha ha, no.

Brino is long gone, its No Deal or a Sh1t Deal. They'll do the sh1t deal and pretend its a win.

Sam Russell

Irish Times quoting that the UK are looking for 80% o the fish caught in UK waters by EU ships, as well as no LPF, sovereignty, etc.

So No Deal it is.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/brexit-talks-uk-seeks-to-strip-fishermen-of-80-of-fish-caught-in-eu-waters-1.4421545

Britain is seeking to strip European Union fishermen of 80 per cent of the fish quota they currently catch in waters that fall under its exclusive economic zone after January 1st, sources close to the negotiations have told the Irish Times.

It comes as negotiations intensify, with time running out to avoid a damaging no-deal exit in just a few weeks’ time that would be expected to devastate Irish exporters and fishing communities that rely on traditional grounds that fall under British control.

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

Irish Times quoting that the UK are looking for 80% o the fish caught in UK waters by EU ships, as well as no LPF, sovereignty, etc.

So No Deal it is.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/brexit-talks-uk-seeks-to-strip-fishermen-of-80-of-fish-caught-in-eu-waters-1.4421545

Sweet mother of ...

The annual difference between the EU position of 18% and 80% (did someone mistake eighteen for eighty, accidentally or on purpose, at this stage anything is possible) is about what financial services exports to the EU are worth to the UK per week.

And financials aren't part of any trade deal, and the EU can terminate them with 30 days notice.



If you are going to play chicken with a train or tram it's worth checking how often they've swerved out of the way in the past.

Lumen

[Deleted User] wrote: »

FWIW - I can't see how anyone could consider a Brexit where the UK leaves the SM and CU as 'BRINO'.

It is as hard a Brexit as was ever, ever, even pretended to be discussed in 2015/2016.

I've just spent a bit of time wading through random capitalization and grammar atrocities in the Express comments section to take the temperature of the lunatics.

I can assure you that the typical Express commenter believes that any trade deal is BRINO, because any trade deal requires compromise, and they didn't vote for compromise. Compromise is a betrayal.

Junkyard Tom

Why can't we have a sort of 'green route' across the land bridge? Use Holyhead and a port adjacent to Dover like Porstmouth and have ferries arrive/depart from there with exclusively Irish/EU vehicles on board with sealed loads/containers?

Obviously I'm not the first person to have had this thought so what gives?

Sam Russell

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Why can't we have a sort of 'green route' across the land bridge? Use Holyhead and a port adjacent to Dover like Porstmouth and have ferries arrive/depart from there with exclusively Irish/EU vehicles on board with sealed loads/containers?

Obviously I'm not the first person to have had this thought so what gives?

1. Portsmouth is not adjacent to Dover.

2. Why on earth would the UK move a finger to help us when they have already put in train a bill to trash the WA that guarantees no border on the island of Ireland.

3. All the UK ports are going to be a mental state of chaos due to the delays caused by unnecessary paperwork caused by customs clearance of trade that has not had any for 25 years.

Dream on.

CelticRambler

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Why can't we have a sort of 'green route' across the land bridge? Use Holyhead and a port adjacent to Dover like Porstmouth and have ferries arrive/depart from there with exclusively Irish/EU vehicles on board with sealed loads/containers?

When did Portsmouth relocate?

And how would you justify telling all the port workers who load/unload non-Irish cargo that they were being laid off because all the other traffic through the port was being re-routed to somewhere else?

TIR is perfectly fit for purpose, inasmuch as trans-territorial transport is concerned. The problem is that Britain has decided to launch itself into the great unknown without any meaningful preparation in respect of customs personnel and IT systems.

Junkyard Tom

Ye seem to be weirdly caught up on the word 'adjacent'? I actually had a look at the map earlier this morning and saw that Portsmouth had good motorway routes to it. I mean, if you're driving from Dover to Portsmouth then it's not adjacent but if you're coming from Holyhead then it's as good as.

CelticRambler wrote: »

The problem is that Britain has decided to launch itself into the great unknown without any meaningful preparation in respect of customs personnel and IT systems.

Anyway nitpicking aside the answer is 'unpredictability'?

Professor Moriarty

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Ye seem to be weirdly caught up on the word 'adjacent'? I actually had a look at the map earlier this morning and saw that Portsmouth had good motorway routes to it. I mean, if you're driving from Dover to Portsmouth then it's not adjacent but if you're coming from Holyhead then it's as good as.



Anyway nitpicking aside the answer is 'unpredictability'?

Tony Connolly has a good article today on this. He also mentions what i had assumed would be the biggest problem for Irish truckers. Imagine being a British truck driver sitting in queue of thousands of trucks and watching Irish trucks sail by (assuming there is a lane for them). I don't think it would take very long before there were angry protests and roadblocks.

View

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Why can't we have a sort of 'green route' across the land bridge? Use Holyhead and a port adjacent to Dover like Porstmouth and have ferries arrive/depart from there with exclusively Irish/EU vehicles on board with sealed loads/containers?

Obviously I'm not the first person to have had this thought so what gives?

Your idea is a good one and an obvious solution.

The problem appears to be the U.K. is being led by a (collective) leadership that doesn’t understand there might be a need for governmental planning, much less any actual action, for the end of the Brexit transition period, and/or one that completely underestimates even a fraction of the complexities that it throws up.

With that apparent level of utter incompetence, Ireland would be foolish to rely on anything U.K. related at the moment, including, in my opinion, any promises made in relation to NI. For many months now, the only safe course of action for our government has been to assume that the absolute worst case scenario will prevail and plan - and act - on that basis.

PokeHerKing

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Tony Connolly has a good article today on this. He also mentions what i had assumed would be the biggest problem for Irish truckers. Imagine being a British truck driver sitting in queue of thousands of trucks and watching Irish trucks sail by (assuming there is a lane for them). I don't think it would take very long before there were angry protests and roadblocks.

Ha yes I can hear the British truck drivers already shouting out their windows "whats all this lads, did we lose a war" !?

CelticRambler

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Ye seem to be weirdly caught up on the word 'adjacent'? I actually had a look at the map earlier this morning and saw that Portsmouth had good motorway routes to it.

Yeah. The problem is that Portsmouth is still in England, which is not where the trucks want to be, so moving them 5-10 hours away from their continental destination is not a great solution. Look at your map again and see how quickly the coastline of southern England deviates from the coastline of France.

If you're going to add extra sailing time, as well as border clearance in the UK, you might as well take one of the new direct ferry routes.

listermint

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Why can't we have a sort of 'green route' across the land bridge? Use Holyhead and a port adjacent to Dover like Porstmouth and have ferries arrive/depart from there with exclusively Irish/EU vehicles on board with sealed loads/containers?

Obviously I'm not the first person to have had this thought so what gives?

The new direct routes allow predictability, they allow direct access , they allow retention of driving hours . Planning wise and driving time they are better than the equipment abyss.

It makes no sense to even review something like this

reslfj

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

... Imagine being a British truck driver sitting in queue of thousands of trucks and watching Irish trucks sail by (assuming there is a lane for them). I don't think it would take very long before there were angry protests and roadblocks.

Lorries from the UK will mostly be parked and waiting in a 'Farage Garage'. The roads should be free.

But in a NoDeal scenario Ireland will have to rely on (pre EEC) ECMT permits to drive in the UK of which there likely isn't very many. (Do any one know how many for Ireland)

It will also have to use the TIR rules. I'm not sure how the TIR rules are for Ireland and for how many lorries?

Lars

Professor Moriarty

reslfj wrote: »

Lorries from the UK will mostly be parked and waiting in a 'Farage Garage'. The roads should be free.

But in a NoDeal scenario Ireland will have to rely on (pre EEC) ECMT permits to drive in the UK of which there likely isn't very many. (Do any one know how many for Ireland)

It will also have to use the TIR rules. I'm not sure how the TIR rules are for Ireland and for how many lorries?

Lars

They may well be parked in open fields. But that won't stop them lashing out in frustration by blocking Irish trucks. It's the EU wot done it.

Puguchung

Lumen wrote: »

There are over 100,000 UK citizens living in Ireland. I'd imagine most of them are eligible for Irish citizenship but simply haven't bothered applying because there has been no practical need to do so, not out of any lack of fondness for their adopted country.

The question is simply whether, IF the EU agrees to allow British citizens resident in Ireland to travel unrestricted in the EU for non-work purposes, whether there is any practical way for these people to prove their residence at an EU airport, given that to date Ireland hasn't issued any residence documentation to these people.

Almost all of them will have Irish drivers licenses (they should have been swapping their UK licenses through the transition period, as should Irish citizens with UK licenses), but that obviously doesn't prove much.

I wish the Irish Govt did have a residence document for UK and non-Irish EU citizens who are resident within Ireland, to distinguish those people that actually do live here, from the many who have the right to but don't.

AFAIK Ireland also didn't collate a "settled status" register of UK citizens living in Ireland in the run up to Brexit. I know that Brits can still live here post-Brexit due to the CTA, but if it turns out that British citizens permanently resident in EU countries do have some sort of greater freedom of movement within the EU post-Brexit than Brits resident in the UK (...wishful thinking...), then how will Brits in Ireland from EU/pre-Brexit times be identified?

Lumen

Puguchung wrote: »

if it turns out that British citizens permanently resident in EU countries do have some sort of greater freedom of movement within the EU post-Brexit than Brits resident in the UK (...wishful thinking...), then how will Brits in Ireland from EU/pre-Brexit times be identified?

I don't think that's what's going to happen. Brits in the EU will need to negotiate the process of gaining local residency in the one country they're in, but that won't give them rights to work elsewhere in the EU.

In that sense Brits in Ireland will be no different, it's just that they happen to qualify for residency without doing anything.

It's a bit like (say) a Ukranian with an Irish work visa. They can't work in another EU country without applying for a work visa in that country. This is quite awkward for people working in the UK/Ireland CTA - if they have a meeting in the UK they need to get a letter from their Irish employer stating that they're travelling for work but not working (I think that's how it goes, it's been a few years since I had to do it).

Fuascailteoir

Where exactly are the british planning to sell all of the fish? Or maybe the plan is to go on a seafood diet

Sam Russell

Fuascailteoir wrote: »

Where exactly are the british planning to sell all of the fish? Or maybe the plan is to go on a seafood diet

They probably will because they will not be able to afford Irish beef if they put 40% tariff on it.

johnnyskeleton

Mod note:

Youre right, this isnt the forum for memes.

Widdensushi

Fuascailteoir wrote: »

Where exactly are the british planning to sell all of the fish? Or maybe the plan is to go on a seafood diet

Some species will be difficult to sell, some will be easy, africa and China are big markets, I am sure they will have no difficulty in getting trade agreements.If the Norwegians have better trade agreements alot of the large pelagic vessels will land in Norway, many do already, some may land in Ireland also, not sure if that would cause a tariff situation, I would presume not as Norwegian vessels land in killybegs.