Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

ExMachina1000

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If we go No Deal in January, the Tories should be gone by Summer and the EU can negotiate the deal they sorely want with Starmer.

A labour government?

Not a hope. Tories again ahead in latest polls.
Why would the Tories be gone?

ExMachina1000

CelticRambler wrote: »

And there you have it: the UK has said, in clear and unambiguous terms, that they do not want to be aligned with EU standards, and they have stated in clear and unambiguous terms (much to the anger of their own agri-business) that will refuse to rule out dropping the standards that they have worked to for decades, even striking out an amendment to that effect from their recent Agriculture Bill.

It's a UK decision, not open to compromise.

To the best of my knowledge, they still haven't applied for recognition as a "listed" third country for the purposes of phyto-sanitary controls, so whether or not they can export chilled ready-meals is the least of their farmers' worries.

Then Irish meat producers are set for a serious loss. The UK care about Ireland as much as Ireland cares about the UK. Leo really stuck the boot in numerous times which only spurred on the Brexit supporting British

CelticRambler

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Leo really stuck the boot in numerous times which only spurred on the Brexit supporting British

Numerous enough for you to be able to provide us with some specific examples?

The Brexit-supporting British were quite happy to drive their country towards the cliff-edge without any outside encouragement, and even now are showing no signs of wanting to apply the brakes.

The Irish beef industry will survive, not least because the British don't produce enough beef to satisfy their own needs and won't be able to put in place measures to replace what they're currently buying from Ireland. In the meantime, come January, there's no practical impediment to Ireland dumping as much beef into the UK as it wants (seeing as the UK has neither the vets nor the customs officials to check what we send).

Even so, there's a heck of a lot of good reasons for the ordinary British consumer to continue to buy traceable, good-quality beef that comes from a farm/butcher next door rather than some vaguely bovine-tasting protein shipped over from the Americas.

And, of course, Ireland has trade deals, signed and in effect, with well over 100 other nations and trading blocs, so our non-British exports can be redirected a at least as fast as the British build up their alternative trades.

ExMachina1000

CelticRambler wrote: »

Numerous enough for you to be able to provide us with some specific examples?

The Brexit-supporting British were quite happy to drive their country towards the cliff-edge without any outside encouragement, and even now are showing no signs of wanting to apply the brakes.

The Irish beef industry will survive, not least because the British don't produce enough beef to satisfy their own needs and won't be able to put in place measures to replace what they're currently buying from Ireland. In the meantime, come January, there's no practical impediment to Ireland dumping as much beef into the UK as it wants (seeing as the UK has neither the vets nor the customs officials to check what we send).

Even so, there's a heck of a lot of good reasons for the ordinary British consumer to continue to buy traceable, good-quality beef that comes from a farm/butcher next door rather than some vaguely bovine-tasting protein shipped over from the Americas.

And, of course, Ireland has trade deals, signed and in effect, with well over 100 other nations and trading blocs, so our non-British exports can be redirected a at least as fast as the British build up their alternative trades.

Someone posted the latest information from the Rte Brexit correspondent a page or two back. It is talking about the reality facing the Irish meat industry in the current situation. Id suggest reading it.

Also EU countries are not permitted to make their trade deals with third countries. The EU trade commission does it on behalf of individual nations. We had Phil Hogan in our corner as trade commissioner. We all know what happened there

View

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

As part of a deal that the EU sorely wants this can be changed as long as the UK agree to maintain EU standards regarding food. They have been working to this standard for decades. The infrastructure is already in place.
This is the whole idea of negotiations. Compromise.
Now if the UK dont want to stick to EU standards then that is a different story. It will be their own decision then.

If the rule isnt changed then as an independent sovereign country the UK has grounds , rights and justification to do same.
Irish meat producers lose out.

The U.K. has rejected the idea that it would “maintain EU standards” and, crucially, the final adjudicator of those standards, the CJEU, therefore the point that the U.K. has followed those standards is now irrelevant.

And, under WTO rules, the U.K. does NOT have the “grounds , rights and justification to do the same”. It has the right to lodge a formal complaint with the WTO and await its adjudication.

It would, of course, look completely ridiculous bringing a complaint about the EU treating it like it treats every other non-EU country when that is what it has said it wants.

Rain Ascending

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

A labour government?

Not a hope. Tories again ahead in latest polls.
Why would the Tories be gone?

Not quite. From yesterday, we've had two polls returning rather <ahem> disquieting results for the Tories:
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1332626435794722816
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1332626435794722816

Considering the large lead the Conservatives had over Labour at the beginning of 2020 and the likely disaster that will come with the departure from the SM and CU in 2021, I doubt support for the Conservatives is going anywhere other than down.

The real question is what happens then. An election? Unless things get really bad (not a given), a more likely scenario is that the Tories drop Johnson and try for a change of leader. But then the issue will be, who is the replacement? Particularly given the current demographic and leanings of the Tory party membership, the final arbiter of the choice of Conservative Party leader...

Leroy42

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Then Irish meat producers are set for a serious loss. The UK care about Ireland as much as Ireland cares about the UK. Leo really stuck the boot in numerous times which only spurred on the Brexit supporting British

Leo became Taoiseach after the ref vote. Are you implying that Leo, through these apparent boots, has changed the outcome of the brexit being looked for by the UK?

That the UK have opted for the hardest form of Brexit because Leo was a bit mean to them?

This is the new Global Britain they are claiming?

View

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Someone posted the latest information from the Rte Brexit correspondent a page or two back. It is talking about the reality facing the Irish meat industry in the current situation. Id suggest reading it.

If the U.K. initiates a trade war with the EU, there will be casualties here and there will many more casualties in the U.K. It is up to the British government if they want to go down that route.

ExMachina1000

View wrote: »

The U.K. has rejected the idea that it would “maintain EU standards” and, crucially, the final adjudicator of those standards, the CJEU, therefore the point that the U.K. has followed those standards is now irrelevant.

And, under WTO rules, the U.K. does NOT have the “grounds , rights and justification to do the same”. It has the right to lodge a formal complaint with the WTO and await its adjudication.

It would, of course, look completely ridiculous bringing a complaint about the EU treating it like it treats every other non-EU country when that is what it has said it wants.

Countries place tariffs on each other all of the time.
In essence what you are implying is the the EU can set its own rules but the UK cannot. The UK are well within their rights to set their own rules.

reslfj

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Then Irish meat producers are set for a serious loss....

Ireland had a total export of animal products of £2.3bn in 2019 - including beef, pork, poultry and diary products (cheese).
And this includes RoI-NI trade which will continue unchanged (the WA/NI protocol: NI effectively in the SM/CU).

It is just over £5 /yr/EU26 citizen if all should be relocated to the EU26 market. I'm sure Irish farmers are already working hard on exporting to countries outside the EU.

It may give some short term losses in the first few months and some products may have to change a bit (less cheddar more other cheeses?), but the Irish will be OK after a short while, I'm sure.

Lars

PS. Remember Ireland has the full support of 26 other countries and the EU commission for needed Brexit related mitigations.

ExMachina1000

reslfj wrote: »

Ireland had a total export of animal products of £2.3bn in 2019 - including beef, pork, poultry and diary products (cheese).
And this includes RoI-NI trade which will continue unchanged (the WA/NI protocol: NI effectively in the SM/CU).

It is just over £5 /yr/EU26 citizen if all should be relocated to the EU26 market. I'm sure Irish farmers are already working hard on exporting to countries outside the EU.

It may give some short term losses in the first few months and some products may have to change a bit (less cheddar more other cheeses?), but the Irish will be OK after a short while, I'm sure.

Lars

PS. Remember Ireland has the full support of 26 other countries and the EU commission for needed Brexit related mitigations.

Irish beef is expensive. The new ferry route was deemed not economically viable previously. Who will buy this expensive product?

Jizique

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Countries place tariffs on each other all of the time.
In essence what you are implying is the the EU can set its own rules but the UK cannot. The UK are well within their rights to set their own rules.

They can’t decide if they want tariffs to protect domestic industry and hurt European (car makers or beef producers or wine suppliers) which would lead to higher prices for the UK consumer or if the want “free and unfettered global trading” which will destroy what is left of their manufacturing - remember the argument about no tariff on pottery which didn’t go down well in Stoke until the decided that there would be a tariff.
I suggest all evidence shows they have no idea what they are doing

An Claidheamh

[quote="Leo really stuck the boot in numerous times which only spurred on the Brexit supporting British[/quote]

That seems to be a common Meow Meow of the Brexiters

Could someone tell me what he actually did, apart from give considerably less than he got from jingoistic brexiters?

All he gave them, just like anyone on the EU side, were facts.

Something, I suppose they are not used to, particularly from Irish people

Brits can dish out the “banter”, they cannot take it

An Claidheamh

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Who will buy fish caught in UK waters?

Ssshhhh

It’s destroy Irish economy this

German car manufacturers that

Sure aren’t Italy and Hungary ready to leave



British history can be defined, in the latter half of the 20th century onwards, particularly in relation to Ireland and historical revisionism/propaganda, of Britain initiating a course of action and either forgetting the possibility and impact of retaliation and presenting itself as a victim

An tariff war and an inability to actually sell their fish would be no different

Capt'n Midnight

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If we go No Deal in January, the Tories should be gone by Summer and the EU can negotiate the deal they sorely want with Starmer.

Between SF not voting, and blackmailing the DUP with the threat of border poll the Tories have an effective majority of 100.

And right now they would get decimated in a General Election because it

So it's back to Plan A.

Stay in power and worry about winning the voters back with sweeteners in the final year of the parliament. Thursday 2 May 2024



Then again six weeks of Purdah might tempt some.

ExMachina1000

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Who will buy fish caught in UK waters?

At a 4% tariff selling to the EU and the drop of available fishing water and stock to the large EU fishing countries France, Spain etc I doubt selling the fish will be an issue.

Couple that with the fact that the UK can now make their own deals with third countries.

Who will buy the expensive Irish beef? Ireland is not permitted to make it's own third country trade deals?

Mr.Wemmick

Rain Ascending wrote: »

Not quite. From yesterday, we've had two polls returning rather <ahem> disquieting results for the Tories:
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1332626435794722816
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1332626435794722816

Considering the large lead the Conservatives had over Labour at the beginning of 2020 and the likely disaster that will come with the departure from the SM and CU in 2021, I doubt support for the Conservatives is going anywhere other than down.

The real question is what happens then. An election? Unless things get really bad (not a given), a more likely scenario is that the Tories drop Johnson and try for a change of leader. But then the issue will be, who is the replacement? Particularly given the current demographic and leanings of the Tory party membership, the final arbiter of the choice of Conservative Party leader...

The tories would love nothing more to hand their brexit mess over to Labour for a few years and then watch them trip over it, while they laugh it out on the side lines.

Then, once the initial storm has settled, ride into power with all the answers to give the country another failing decade of torydom. The country is a joke and I should know, I live here.

reslfj

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Irish beef is expensive. The new ferry route was deemed not economically viable previously. Who will buy this expensive product?

I can buy Irish beef in my local Lidl and sometimes other Irish food products e.g. cheese too (also in other shops).

Not least after the GBP has lost almost 20% in value to the Euro, Irish products may seem much more expensive that they appear in EU26 countries and indeed within the Eurozone countries. More importantly the UK will have very much larger problems with growth and jobs post Covid19, than will EU27/EEA countries.

If the auto industry reduces or worse goes into 'we are closing within a few years' mode, UK growth might even go negative for more years.

Northern England and many non skilled workers will literally be lost for a decade+ to come, I'm afraid.

Lars

Infini

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Then Irish meat producers are set for a serious loss. The UK care about Ireland as much as Ireland cares about the UK. Leo really stuck the boot in numerous times which only spurred on the Brexit supporting British

And yet so what? Boris and friends have been intent on this from day 1, theyre idiots with a blinkered view of reality and basically dont like rules that dont suit them. They've repeatedly made childish threats when it doesnt look like they're getting what they want even though theyd come off much worse.

The only times they've backed down is when they realise that their bluff gets called and they ended up worse off than if they'd just compromised to begin with.

druss

reslfj wrote: »

I can buy Irish beef in my local Lidl and sometimes other Irish food products e.g. cheese too (also in other shops).

In Belgium, Irish beef and lamb is normally shelved alongside UK beef and lamb (sometimes labelled "Celtic" for Welsh or Scottish produce). I'd imagine that there will be a reallocation of price and shelf space there too from January.

Rain Ascending

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

The tories would love nothing more to hand their brexit mess over to Labour for a few years and then watch them trip over it, while they laugh it out on the side lines.

Then, once the initial storm has settled, ride into power with all the answers to give the country another failing decade of torydom. <snip>

Yeah ... I get where you are coming from. Prior to the 2019 election, I thought that that should have been exactly the Tory strategy (and even posted here with that thesis). Loose that election to Corbyn, cement his position of power within Labour, and then hand over the whole Brexit mess to them, even while the were riven from head-to-toe on what policy to follow with respect to the EU. Then sit it out from the sidelines with a hard-line Brexit position during 2020, carping away. Imagine if this had happened ... with Corbyn (not Starmer) also trying to deal with a pandemic? Johnson would have been good for a decade.

Instead, the Conservatives remained hooked on that ultimate drug ... power ... and went all out to win the election on a fuzzy phrase that will come back to bite them: "Get Brexit Done".

Rain Ascending

Rain Ascending wrote: »

Not quite. From yesterday, we've had two polls returning rather <ahem> disquieting results for the Tories:
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1332626435794722816
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1332626435794722816

Considering the large lead the Conservatives had over Labour at the beginning of 2020 and the likely disaster that will come with the departure from the SM and CU in 2021, I doubt support for the Conservatives is going anywhere other than down.

The real question is what happens then. An election? Unless things get really bad (not a given), a more likely scenario is that the Tories drop Johnson and try for a change of leader. But then the issue will be, who is the replacement? Particularly given the current demographic and leanings of the Tory party membership, the final arbiter of the choice of Conservative Party leader...

Tories down by only 1%, surprised to see the Brexit party featuring at all, they have probably picked up the Tory votes !
It is the LibDems who have the most to worry about as it seems they are losing out to Labour and as for the Greens, they're irrelevant in the current political environment with the two main features of Brexit and Covid front and centre.

declanflynn

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Irish beef is expensive. The new ferry route was deemed not economically viable previously. Who will buy this expensive product?

Its not any more expensive than EU or UK beef and is precieved as high quality.
The new route to Europe is not more expensive than the landbridge route it just takes a few hours longer.

declanflynn

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

At a 4% tariff selling to the EU and the drop of available fishing water and stock to the large EU fishing countries France, Spain etc I doubt selling the fish will be an issue.

Couple that with the fact that the UK can now make their own deals with third countries.

Who will buy the expensive Irish beef? Ireland is not permitted to make it's own third country trade deals?

British food banks will need good quality beef, if theres no deal they will be trying to feed around 50 million people

View

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Countries place tariffs on each other all of the time.
In essence what you are implying is the the EU can set its own rules but the UK cannot. The UK are well within their rights to set their own rules.

No I am not implying that.

The EU has an existing set of rules which (are supposed to) comply in full with WTO rules. Those include those related to sausages. Any non-EU country has been free to challenge them in the WTO for years and get a WTO ruling against them, but none have done so.

The U.K. has been happy to apply those same rules for decades.

If it suddenly turns around and applies tariffs because it is unhappy with rules that are compliant with WTO rules then it would be violating WTO rules.

In those circumstances, it would be the EU, not the U.K., that would be entitled to apply retaliatory tariffs in line with WTO rules.

And at that point, presumably, Brexiters will want to leave the WTO because they won’t be “perfectly fine” with WTO rules as they claimed all along.

CelticRambler

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Irish beef is expensive. The new ferry route was deemed not economically viable previously. Who will buy this expensive product?

Well, McDonalds already source about half the beef they use in Western Europe from Ireland, so it can't be too expensive. And, as others have remarked above, British - especially Scottish - beef currently sold in the EU will suddenly become less available in supermarkets, so why wouldn't customers switch to tariff-free, reliably-deliverable Irish beef as soon as problems occur with the supply chain?

There is no Irish market problem that the Brexiters have created that can't be solved by leveraging the power of a trading bloc of 27 nations, 450m people on the world stage. We can sail or fly around their island and leave them to figure out solutions themselves for the complications they've imposed on their own industries.

Winters

If we rely on the landbridge we rely on the UK.

The new transit routes that go direct to the continent are more predicable and avoid any reliance on a non EU rule abiding country or entity.

An Claidheamh

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Who will buy the expensive Irish beef?

Irresponsible countries that don't have enough beef to feed themselves so will now have to pay more

Countries like the UK

An Claidheamh

declanflynn wrote: »

Its not any more expensive than EU or UK beef and is precieved as high quality.
The new route to Europe is not more expensive than the landbridge route it just takes a few hours longer.

"The only thing they (the English) have ever done for European agriculture is mad cow disease"

Jacques Chirac

MBSnr

declanflynn wrote: »

Its not any more expensive than EU or UK beef and is precieved as high quality.
The new route to Europe is not more expensive than the landbridge route it just takes a few hours longer.

I'm not sure of the actual detailed specifics here. It's about 10 or so (moving not including waiting) hrs from Dublin - Hollyhead to Calais and 24-26 hrs via Rosslare-Dunkirk (moving all the time). Legally a HGV driver can't drive more than 9 hours in one day and has to have a break of 45 mins after 4.5 hrs. It takes around 6 hrs Hollyhead to Dover, so there's a 45 min stop there already on the way to Dover. So conceivably via the UK they'd get to France within the 9 hours (moving time) but would have to wait up some place the other side of the channel before they could legally continue. (If the driver was staying with the same vehicle all the way through to the end point).

Effectively the direct ferry allows the HGV drivers to drive 9 hours from landing in Dunkirk to where ever with perhaps a total difference of only a few hours later compared with travelling via the UK landbridge.