Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

reslfj

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Funnily enough empty shelves and queues due to economy seizing up was what brought down USSR when they attempted their perestroika. ...

The queues in the USSR was there long, long before Glasnost and Perestroika.

The queues were related to real problems in the communist economy with limited supply of products and very bad logistics (command economy). They were also related to an oversupply of money that did not match 'the low prices' multiplied 'with the amount of products available'.

Unless there are products to counter balance, money is nothing but paper (nowadays its too many digits on our computerized bank statements).

Lars

20silkcut

Strazdas wrote: »

It looks like the two world wars were bad news for Britain. The bulk of countries left the empire in the 15 years or so after WW2.

Historians will probably lump together WW1, WW2 and Brexit as three bad and damaging events for the UK.

I wouldn't necessarily agree that these discussions are offtopic btw. Brexit was almost certainly firmly shaped by earlier 20th century British history (or via a rewriting of it) - the connection has been made numerous times.

Yes bar maybe the Falkland island campaign the 20th century has been a disaster for the U.K. relative to where they were as a world power.
Even though the UK is a far far better country now than it ever was at the height of the empire.
But that gets completely lost in the current narrative.
Back then they were top dog. That’s all that matters.

CelticRambler

Geuze wrote: »

I read somewhere that Dublin-Calais takes 13 hrs.

This new route is 24hrs on the ship.

That 13 hours breaks down as 4 hours on the Irish sea (incl 30mins loading/unloading) + 7 hours on UK roads + 2 hours on the English Channel (sea route, incl 30 mins loading/unloading).

The sea-crossing times are reasonably accurate for during undisrupted operations; the road time, again, is impossibly optimistic. It does indeed appear to have been based on someone's indiscriminate use of Google's optimistic estimation for a car journey.

It takes no account of recommended or legally mandated breaks; no account of HGV speed being limited to 90km; and - of course - no account of the time required for customs checks on entry to and exit from the UK.

So can we please stop using family leisure trip logistics pre-Brexit as the basis for comparison with freight traffic post-Brexit. :mad:

Leroy42

I think one of the main problems is that, and its not limited to transport, there is a serious lack of detailed forecasts of what the actual effects will be.

Mainly because no one knows what the final deal will be, many people still seem to think that a deal will sort most of the issues, or that any issues are just made up and nothing will change.

Reporters like Peter Foster have tried, but to me at least, the reporting on Brexit has been far too focused on the political drama, and not enough on the practicalities.

So people are left resorting to Google maps and a few reports since, particularly the UK, government has failed to actually produce anything official.

It is quite amazing that 30 days before the end of transition, many are still under the impression that a deal with sort out the issues

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is quite amazing that 30 days before the end of transition, many are still under the impression that a deal with sort out the issues

If you think the 30 days before the end of transition will be quite amazing then the first 30 days after transition will be awesome sauce by comparison. I'd consider buying the sun, telegraph paper editions etc. simply to document the outrage and testosterone headlines that I expect will come even with a deal for later generations...

snowstorm445

TBH I feel that if Britain had been defeated by Argentina in 1982, or simply let them take the islands diplomatically, it's very likely they might still be in the EU today. The war had a huge galvanising effect on Britain's worldview, unjustified as it was to some extent (given they were fighting against a third world dictatorship) and blew their view of themselves well out of proportion. A humbling retreat from the Falkland Islands in what ever capacity would have spelt out to British people (in a way that economics couldn't) the fact that they were now, at best, a middle tier power.

Britain, unlike other post-colonial powers like France, the Netherlands, Portugal etc, was also never dragged into a conflict or political quagmire as a result of their empire or decolonisation. The Netherlands fought a bloody war in the late 40s to hold onto Indonesia and was forced to relinquish control eventually. Portugal spent the best part of two decades fighting desperately to hold onto its colonies in Africa while emigration soared (with people trying to dodge conscription as well as seeking better livelihoods) and their economy was bled dry. And of course France had a terribly traumatic experience in Algeria which not only saw huge French casualties, but led to the collapse of their political system, several coup attempts, and horrific war crimes being uncovered in the years that followed. In all of those countries, the view of their imperial histories are profoundly mixed, and there is still a lot of grief about it nowadays. Even though Britain's withdrawal from its colonies had horrific repercussions (see India, Israel/Palestine, Uganda etc) they never had to confront it themselves (Northern Ireland might be the exception, but then given the fact most Brexiteers care so little for NI, you could say they've blocked it out collectively as a coping mechanism). And so they've allowed themselves to indulge in their rosy, unblemished view of themselves ever since.

Winters

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think one of the main problems is that, and its not limited to transport, there is a serious lack of detailed forecasts of what the actual effects will be.

Mainly because no one knows what the final deal will be, many people still seem to think that a deal will sort most of the issues, or that any issues are just made up and nothing will change.

Its mainly because this has never been done before. The UK are rolling back 50 years of work without even a sketch of a plan.

if they were truly serious about this new UK future they would have all their customs posts filled and trained and their replacement regulatory bodies up and running already.

Sam Russell

snowstorm445 wrote: »

TBH I feel that if Britain had been defeated by Argentina in 1982, or simply let them take the islands diplomatically, it's very likely they might still be in the EU today. The war had a huge galvanising effect on Britain's worldview, unjustified as it was to some extent (given they were fighting against a third world dictatorship) and blew their view of themselves well out of proportion. A humbling retreat from the Falkland Islands in what ever capacity would have spelt out to British people (in a way that economics couldn't) the fact that they were now, at best, a middle tier power.

In fact, the Falklands/Malvinas war was a closer run thing than the British would like to think.

The Exocet missile, produced by France, had a small defect that caused it to fail to knock out the HMS Sheffield because it hit above the waterline instead of below it. The Sheffield was totally destroyed bit it did not sink. Also the Falklands were just within range of Argentina Air Force, and they had limited time over the target, so they had very limited effect.

At the time of the Falklands war, much of the British Navy hardware was up for sale (because of their dreadful financial position) but following their major success in that war, it was all so badly damaged it was only fit for scrap.

My own view of the world is that the entry of the USA into WW I in 1917 was the beginning of the end for the British Empire as it signalled the start of the USA having a standing army which since then has been expanded in both size and reach and now has a bigger budget than all other armed forces in the world combined.

Britain had a century of world dominance from 1815 (battle of Waterloo) until 1917. The USA has had a century from 1917 till now, and are likely to transfer world dominance to China some time soon, but when that happens depends on what happens next in the USA, and in China. Trump has done a huge amount of damage to the USA's position in the world, and hastened the handover.

To a certain extent, Brexit has diminished the EU's part in influencing their part in the unfolding drama.

listermint

Winters wrote: »

Its mainly because this has never been done before. The UK are rolling back 50 years of work without even a sketch of a plan.

if they were truly serious about this new UK future they would have all their customs posts filled and trained and their replacement regulatory bodies up and running already.

And this in a nutshell is it, If the UK were truly serious about this they would be taking it seriously.

They are not, its a never ending fall from one stupid decision to the next.

There is nothing serious about their outlook but the outlook is serious.

CelticRambler

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Britain, unlike other post-colonial powers like France, the Netherlands, Portugal etc, was also never dragged into a conflict or political quagmire as a result of their empire or decolonisation.

<snip>
Even though Britain's withdrawal from its colonies had horrific repercussions (see India, Israel/Palestine, Uganda etc) they never had to confront it themselves (Northern Ireland might be the exception, but then given the fact most Brexiteers care so little for NI, you could say they've blocked it out collectively as a coping mechanism).

More than 3000 men, women, children and horses lying dead on UK soil over a period of 30 years? It could be argued that Britain's trouble with NI was - and is - just as quagmirish as France's Algeria or the US's Vietnam. And here we are at the end of 2020, and NI is still a millstone around the neck of the English. It's not so much a question of Britain never having suffered the fate of other colonial powers, it's their refusal to face up to reality that's their primary handicap.

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think one of the main problems is that, and its not limited to transport, there is a serious lack of detailed forecasts of what the actual effects will be.

Mainly because no one knows what the final deal will be, many people still seem to think that a deal will sort most of the issues, or that any issues are just made up and nothing will change.

Therein lies the difference between the Brexit negotiations and all other FTAs: the usual process is to start with a less-than-ideal situation and improve it; agreements are hammered out over time, occasionally with lots of blinking at the "last minute" for the purposes of domestic politics; and then physical and administrative barriers are gradually removed to make life progressively better for both sides. Brexit is the opposite of that - a desperate and determined attempt by one side to make things worse for everyone, while trying to dress it up as somehow beneficial.

I suppose, in a way, this is essentially the same disconnect from reality as pretending that NI doesn't exist, or that it's not a problem, or that "we're better together" while doing everything imaginable to drive regional separatism movements. Out of all the historic parallels and precedents, I still think "Yugoslavia" is the most likely comparison - we'll end up with a UK divided into several smaller, civilised nations that seek EU membership, and one chaotic territory in the middle that takes decades to rebuild a normal relationship with itself and the wider world.

Brussels Sprout

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Britain, unlike other post-colonial powers like France, the Netherlands, Portugal etc, was also never dragged into a conflict or political quagmire as a result of their empire or decolonisation.

I worked with a lot of Portuguese people before and I was struck how a lot of their fathers had fought in Mozambique. They referred to it as their Vietnam as it was a far away war from around the same time period and was ultimately seen as pointless and futile.

Brussels Sprout

reslfj wrote: »

Not that I will support Thatcher, but many sections of UK business were grossly inefficient and had a very low productivity. This can - imo - be blamed on the unions and their members as much as on Ms. Thatcher.

Some unions and workers sought conflict, as did Ms. Thatcher - and they lost because they did not any longer have a valid business case to defend.

Coal was not .....

Don't get me wrong - when I say she threw those areas under the bus it was more to do with that fact that after she had used the power of the state to crush those industries she didn't use the power of the state to help those areas out again.

She had an almost libertarian view of the manner - that market forces would find a way. Well, they didn't. the UK is pock-marked with areas of high unemployment and grinding poverty all over North England and Wales that have been that way since the 1980's. In fact it was areas like that that swung Brexit for the Leave side.

Enzokk

Here is some quotes from Coveney on the state of play,

https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1333333792761798656?s=20

https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1333333796058443776?s=20


Still have the IM Bill to worry about though, even if they agree a deal.

trellheim

FT is reporting UK drivers will need a green card to drive in the EU post 01/01/2020

see https://www.ft.com/content/35f63971-24cd-4c07-8e5a-19c19e150ba1?shareType=nongift

Does this apply to NI as well ? I don't think they fixed this in the WA

CelticRambler

trellheim wrote: »

Does this apply to NI as well ? I don't think they fixed this in the WA

Do you mean NI drivers in RoI? I can't remember where I read it, but I think it's covered by some other mechanism than the WA, and not a problem as long as they stay on the island. Totally different situation, of course, if they get on any of the ferries to France.

trellheim

Do you mean NI drivers in RoI?

Yes. Not sure its covered.

MBSnr

CelticRambler wrote: »

So can we please stop using family leisure trip logistics pre-Brexit as the basis for comparison with freight traffic post-Brexit. :mad:

Calm yourself.
I already corrected it in a later post. It was an example and if you reread my original post it, you'll find I referenced the HGV breaks and mentioned 'moving' time as opposed to waiting time. There's no need to be bang on about it again. That could come across as unnecessarily pedantic, especially since the original post was correct bar for 3 hours...

Leroy42

I do think that a No deal is the only acceptable, certainly long-lasting, outcome at this stage. The UK has shown, with the IM bill, that any deal is not worth much (although that is true to any agreement, it only stands as long as both sides agree to abide by it).

But in addition, it very much seems to me that the UK still hasn't started to come to terms to what being outside the EU actually means. They still seem to work on the assumption that everything remains the same, that things will only be bad if the EU make them bad.

So any deal is likely to be short-lived, and full of continually issues, as the UK continue to pine for the Brexit Sunny Uplands. Whatever deal is struck in the next few days, will be a pale shadow of both what they were promised and what they already had. So either way, people are going to feel let down.

And the EU comes out of a deal looking like they gave in to the tactics of the UK, namely to drag everything out to the last minute to force the EU to capitulate. They will try to dress it up, but that is how it will look to those that are looking for a weakness in the EU. Particularly those in the UK will see any concession by the EU as yet another starting point, pocket it and look to renege on it later.

Enzokk

About the deals when no-deal happens,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1333377337149304832?s=20

So the EU would make arrangements so that transport continues, but nothing else as of now.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

I do think that a No deal is the only acceptable, certainly long-lasting, outcome at this stage.

I don't think No Deal can last long, the disruption to trade, closure of factories, empty shelves and soaring prices in the UK will see No Deal die a quick death.

But I agree that the extremists will keep pushing until they get No Deal, and that the British public won't start the long road back from Brexit until its failure is complete.

trellheim

the disruption to trade, closure of factories, empty shelves and soaring prices in the UK will see No Deal die a quick death.

the extremists can blame all that on COVID so they get away scot free

declanflynn

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't think No Deal can last long, the disruption to trade, closure of factories, empty shelves and soaring prices in the UK will see No Deal die a quick death.

But I agree that the extremists will keep pushing until they get No Deal, and that the British public won't start the long road back from Brexit until its failure is complete.

Theres nothing like empty shelves in the supermarkets to make a nation question their government

The Raging Bile Duct

trellheim wrote: »

the extremists can blame all that on COVID so they get away scot free

Considering it hasn't caused a significant issue with stock levels so far in supermarkets, I can't see that working as an excuse.

Strazdas

trellheim wrote: »

the extremists can blame all that on COVID so they get away scot free

I have my doubts. Very hard to link food shortages to Covid-19 : supply lines have remained fully open throughout the pandemic, even during strict lockdowns.

The idea that the loons will be able to cover up Brexit failing badly is questionable.

Nody

listermint wrote: »

And this in a nutshell is it, If the UK were truly serious about this they would be taking it seriously.

They are not, its a never ending fall from one stupid decision to the next.

There is nothing serious about their outlook but the outlook is serious.

But that's the part I really don't get to be honest; I'm a Brexiteer and I want to get rid of the evil kleptomaniacs in EU and we want to not be under their rule anymore because two finger salute to the despots there and glory to Lex Britannia etc. Clearly they would know and I'm sure been told by their civil service, blokes in the smokeroom etc. that we'd need to create our set of agencies now and expand existing once to handle the new rules we want implemented etc. And yet, nothing. We're not only taking Boris here but all the way back to May's government here; how / why did they not start setting up these agencies and stack them with corporate picked people for policy implementation etc.?

An Ciarraioch

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I worked with a lot of Portuguese people before and I was struck how a lot of their fathers had fought in Mozambique. They referred to it as their Vietnam as it was a far away war from around the same time period and was ultimately seen as pointless and futile.

Also in Angola - at the time, Portugal was ruled by a fascist dictator called Caetano, similar to the Franco regime, and he was only ultimately overthrown because the African wars had ground to a stalemate, and the generals who served there realised that a change of regime and granting independence were directly linked:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnation_Revolution

ancapailldorcha

Nody wrote: »

But that's the part I really don't get to be honest; I'm a Brexiteer and I want to get rid of the evil kleptomaniacs in EU and we want to not be under their rule anymore because two finger salute to the despots there and glory to Lex Britannia etc. Clearly they would know and I'm sure been told by their civil service, blokes in the smokeroom etc. that we'd need to create our set of agencies now and expand existing once to handle the new rules we want implemented etc. And yet, nothing. We're not only taking Boris here but all the way back to May's government here; how / why did they not start setting up these agencies and stack them with corporate picked people for policy implementation etc.?

Brexit isn't about bureaucracy or even about soveriengty. If it were, we'd be seeing reforms to the civil service and withdrawal from the WHO, the WTO, the UN, Interpol, etc. These are just examples of useful rhetoric put about by Brexiters to avoid looking like idiots when asked why the average voter should choose to leave since they're not friends with dubious press barons or financiers.

People are angry. All the likes of Farage did was to give them an outlet and then start jumping off the sinking ship once they'd gnawn a few holes in the bottom.

Strazdas

Nody wrote: »

But that's the part I really don't get to be honest; I'm a Brexiteer and I want to get rid of the evil kleptomaniacs in EU and we want to not be under their rule anymore because two finger salute to the despots there and glory to Lex Britannia etc. Clearly they would know and I'm sure been told by their civil service, blokes in the smokeroom etc. that we'd need to create our set of agencies now and expand existing once to handle the new rules we want implemented etc. And yet, nothing. We're not only taking Boris here but all the way back to May's government here; how / why did they not start setting up these agencies and stack them with corporate picked people for policy implementation etc.?

There was never any plan or vision for the UK outside the EU. Most of those behind it were reactionaries and xenophobes who just wanted to deliver a collective V sign to Europe.

The way the referendum was worded almost guaranteed the failure of Brexit. 'Leave the EU' and do what exactly? It's almost five years later and there is still no plan, no vision.

breezy1985

Strazdas wrote: »

I have my doubts. Very hard to link food shortages to Covid-19 : supply lines have remained fully open throughout the pandemic, even during strict lockdowns.

The idea that the loons will be able to cover up Brexit failing badly is questionable.

I'm interested to see what the excuses will be if the no dealers get everything they want and it all goes tits up

Seth Brundle

Strazdas wrote: »

I have my doubts. Very hard to link food shortages to Covid-19 : supply lines have remained fully open throughout the pandemic, even during strict lockdowns.

The idea that the loons will be able to cover up Brexit failing badly is questionable.

But the media are already blaming the EU for the effects of Brexit. This will be the narrative going forwards...

https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1333394401670914051