Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

joeysoap

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Also in Angola - at the time, Portugal was ruled by a fascist dictator called Caetano, similar to the Franco regime, and he was only ultimately overthrown because the African wars had ground to a stalemate, and the generals who served there realised that a change of regime and granting independence were directly linked:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnation_Revolution

Not forgetting Goa. But India was too big to get mixed up with, bar a sea squirmish resulting in a few Portuguese casualties.

There you go, I thought the dictator was Salazaar . Portugal ( Britain’s oldest Ally, no less ) is firmly embedded in the EU now. But they revamped Faro airport and there’s more ‘non Eu’ immigration booths than EU booths. Of course if we applied to join Shenzhen we wouldn’t have to queue up at all

ambro25

Enzokk wrote: »

About the deals when no-deal happens,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1333377337149304832?s=20

So the EU would make arrangements so that transport continues, but nothing else as of now.

This unilateral and minimalistic 'keep the (f)lights on for them' approach by the EU is the same as with every earlier 'no deal' cliff edge since 2017.

But the headbangers and red tops will probably not pass an opportunity to put a fresh coat of anti-EU propaganda on it.

Infini

joeysoap wrote: »

[QeUOTE=An Ciarraioch;115466986]Also in Angola - at the time, Portugal was ruled by a fascist dictator called Caetano, similar to the Franco regime, and he was only ultimately overthrown because the African wars had ground to a stalemate, and the generals who served there realised that a change of regime and granting independence were directly linked:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnation_Revolution

Not forgetting Goa. But India was too big to get mixed up with, bar a sea squirmish resulting in a few Portuguese casualties.

There you go, I thought the dictator was Salazaar . Portugal ( Britain’s oldest Ally, no less ) is firmly embedded in the EU now. But they revamped Faro airport and there’s more ‘non Eu’ immigration booths than EU booths. Of course if we applied to join Shenzhen we wouldn’t have to queue up at all

I honestly think the only way we'll see us joining the Schengen Zone is if the CTA were to come to an end and this likely would only happen as well in the event of a United Ireland. It would be different if we weren't an island connected with an unreliable neighbor these days.

breezy1985

Seth Brundle wrote: »

But the media are already blaming the EU for the effects of Brexit. This will be the narrative going forwards...

https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1333394401670914051

On of my favorite aspects of the idea that big powerful Britain will get whatever deal it demands was the idea that restriction of movement would be one way

Brussels Sprout

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't think No Deal can last long, the disruption to trade, closure of factories, empty shelves and soaring prices in the UK will see No Deal die a quick death.

But I agree that the extremists will keep pushing until they get No Deal, and that the British public won't start the long road back from Brexit until its failure is complete.

Christ, it's like an addict that hasn't quite reached rock bottom yet.

Strazdas

Seth Brundle wrote: »

But the media are already blaming the EU for the effects of Brexit. This will be the narrative going forwards...

https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1333394401670914051

Though that is not a particular problem for the EU. They (Brexit media) already hate the EU and are in a toxic relationship with their readers. What a 'third country' and ex-member thinks of the EU is of no concern to anyone.

Nobody is trying to win these guys over. They have already left.

Nody

Strazdas wrote: »

Though that is not a particular problem for the EU. They (Brexit media) already hate the EU and are in a toxic relationship with their readers. What a 'third country' and ex-member thinks of the EU is of no concern to anyone.

Nobody is trying to win these guys over. They have already left.

To be fair if you read the comments on the article (and the article do go through the fact it's a third party country impact; it's more of a "We're special and angry" kind of article to get a good headline) even the Brexiteers are not exactly impressed by them. I think the most common comment along the lines of "If you can afford a second home you can afford to get a visa" (it's 80 to 100 EUR normally) from brexiteers and "Well this is what you voted for, why are you surprised?" from remainers.

CelticRambler

Seth Brundle wrote: »

But the media are already blaming the EU for the effects of Brexit. This will be the narrative going forwards...

https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1333394401670914051

The Sunday Times had a more sober version of that Daily Mail article, in which they pointed out that the 90-day authorisation is for a traveller's presence anywhere within the Schengen Area, and is counted over a period of 6 months.

It particularly affects holiday-home owners, who might spend three weeks at a time in Provence, for example, over Christmas (20d), in February(+=40d) and at Easter(+=60d), but also treat themselves to shorter trips to Italy, Austria, Germany, etc for shopping, football matches, romantic breaks, business trips and the like.

For most people, the 90-day limit won't be a problem, but there will surely be a subset of the population that runs very close to the 90-day limit without realising that they should (literally) be counting the days, and will turn up at a customs post some day only to be told that they're on Day 91 and have to go back to Blighty until the clock is reset.

It's going to take several years before it really sinks into the British psyche that they're third-class Europeans, after EU-ians and Schengen Opt-in-inans like the Swiss.

Strazdas

Nody wrote: »

To be fair if you read the comments on the article (and the article do go through the fact it's a third party country impact; it's more of a "We're special and angry" kind of article to get a good headline) even the Brexiteers are not exactly impressed by them. I think the most common comment along the lines of "If you can afford a second home you can afford to get a visa" (it's 80 to 100 EUR normally) from brexiteers and "Well this is what you voted for, why are you surprised?" from remainers.

Absolutely : I also think though that nobody in Ireland and continental EU should be overly bothered about what way the British press describes the EU after January 1st. They will have left everything EU related. Their relationship with their readers, and whether they tell the truth or lie to them, will be an internal British matter and of no concern to anyone else.

View

CelticRambler wrote: »

The Sunday Times had a more sober version of that Daily Mail article, in which they pointed out that the 90-day authorisation is for a traveller's presence anywhere within the Schengen Area, and is counted over a period of 6 months.

It particularly affects holiday-home owners, who might spend three weeks at a time in Provence, for example, over Christmas (20d), in February(+=40d) and at Easter(+=60d), but also treat themselves to shorter trips to Italy, Austria, Germany, etc for shopping, football matches, romantic breaks, business trips and the like.

For most people, the 90-day limit won't be a problem, but there will surely be a subset of the population that runs very close to the 90-day limit without realising that they should (literally) be counting the days, and will turn up at a customs post some day only to be told that they're on Day 91 and have to go back to Blighty until the clock is reset.

It's going to take several years before it really sinks into the British psyche that they're third-class Europeans, after EU-ians and Schengen Opt-in-inans like the Swiss.

Fourth class Europeans, actually, who barely come after the third class ones - the Schengen opt-outs - such as us.

And, let’s face it, when it comes to Schengen, we are more interested in acting as though we are still a Dominion within the Empire, rather than as an independent country committed, in the EU Treaties, to ensuring that “The Union shall offer its citizens an area of freedom, security and justice without internal frontiers,...” (ie Schengen) - a commitment we are completely failing to even attempt to working toward at the moment.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Let's leave the Portuguese history there please as it has nothing to do with the topic at hand.

54and56

Nody wrote: »

To be fair if you read the comments on the article (and the article do go through the fact it's a third party country impact; it's more of a "We're special and angry" kind of article to get a good headline) even the Brexiteers are not exactly impressed by them. I think the most common comment along the lines of "If you can afford a second home you can afford to get a visa" (it's 80 to 100 EUR normally) from brexiteers and "Well this is what you voted for, why are you surprised?" from remainers.

It's pretty lazy reporting to be pointing out that by voting for Brexit and returning a Tory Govt determined to make Brexit as hard as possible Brits will consequently be subject to the same EU rules on movement that people from all 3rd countries, whether Mongolia or the UK, have to adhere to.

No doubt the same non news "headlines" will emerge in early Jan when shock horror goods entering the EU from the UK will have to have normal 3rd country customs paperwork etc and the requirement for same from French/Belgian customs officers will be painted as an unwillingness to be "sensible" as Gove likes to put it.

Sensible would be the UK Govt having put in place the infrastructure and resources, including 50,000 customs agents, needed to ensure the disruptive effects of the 3rd country path the UK has chosen to follow, are mitigated.

breezy1985

View wrote: »

Fourth class Europeans, actually, who barely come after the third class ones - the Schengen opt-outs - such as us.

And, let’s face it, when it comes to Schengen, we are more interested in acting as though we are still a Dominion within the Empire, rather than as an independent country committed, in the EU Treaties, to ensuring that “The Union shall offer its citizens an area of freedom, security and justice without internal frontiers,...” (ie Schengen) - a commitment we are completely failing to even attempt to working toward at the moment.

Would it make much difference whether we were in our out of Schengen. You would need a passport or similar to fly anyway so unless you swam to France or there is some other part of it I don't understand.

Are we any clearer on what happens the Northern border come January. Is the border on the Irish sea happening as things stand?

Leroy42

breezy1985 wrote: »

Are we any clearer on what happens the Northern border come January. Is the border on the Irish sea happening as things stand?

Theoretically, and legally, yes. The UK and EU signed the WA which created the Sea border to avoid a hard border.

The UK appears to want to renege on this, through the passing of the IM bill, but that hasn't as yet happened. So as of now, the UK are looking to agree a deal which would negate the effects of the sea border not remove it.

Whatever deal is agreed, which will be very hard brexit at this stage, the sea border will place restrictions and responsibilities on the Uk in terms of trade with NI.

Brussels Sprout

Strazdas wrote: »

Absolutely : I also think though that nobody in Ireland and continental EU should be overly bothered about what way the British press describes the EU after January 1st. They will have left everything EU related. Their relationship with their readers, and whether they tell the truth or lie to them, will be an internal British matter and of no concern to anyone else.

They're absolutely going to double down though. If the Express didn't have EU-bashing to get their reader's all excited they'd have nothing left in the paper but articles about heart medication, home equity loans and Prince Harry.

breezy1985

Leroy42 wrote: »

Theoretically, and legally, yes. The UK and EU signed the WA which created the Sea border to avoid a hard border.

The UK appears to want to renege on this, through the passing of the IM bill, but that hasn't as yet happened. So as of now, the UK are looking to agree a deal which would negate the effects of the sea border not remove it.

Whatever deal is agreed, which will be very hard brexit at this stage, the sea border will place restrictions and responsibilities on the Uk in terms of trade with NI.

Well as long as we don't have to waste our time and money trying to man that border I don't really care what happens to the UK at this stage they get what they voted for

Leroy42

breezy1985 wrote: »

Well as long as we don't have to waste our time and money trying to man that border I don't really care what happens to the UK at this stage they get what they voted for

Unfortunately we cannot say that will not happen. The UK, through the IM bill, have signalled that they have no intention of abiding by the WA.

If they fail to secure a deal such that the impact of a sea border if reduced to avoid it being an issue, then they will renege on the agreement and then a border will be required.

breezy1985

Leroy42 wrote: »

Unfortunately we cannot say that will not happen. The UK, through the IM bill, have signalled that they have no intention of abiding by the WA.

If they fail to secure a deal such that the impact of a sea border if reduced to avoid it being an issue, then they will renege on the agreement and then a border will be required.

So best I start heading up the Galtee Mountains in the evening and start practicing lugging camembert and foie gras through the woods so I can make a bit of cash come Brexit

roosterman71

The British immigrants seem to have just realise that their holiday home lifestyle in the south of Spain is going to require some extra paperwork

Furious British expats blast EU's new post-Brexit travel rules which will ban them from spending more than three months at a time at their holiday home from January

fly_agaric

Leroy42 wrote: »

If they fail to secure a deal such that the impact of a sea border if reduced to avoid it being an issue, then they will renege on the agreement and then a border will be required.

Yes, its a worry (in my mind) that I get impression the government here have not internalised this/accepted it as a "real" possibility. All they way through this mess the Irish government have had a Polyannaish belief any day now the British are going to cop on/wake up or "something" will come along to make things all right (or at least not as bad as they could be) imo. I'd say that must be wearing off now, but it is far too late in the day to do any actual planning for the worst case, so what will be will be next year. Could get very interesting.

Leroy42

roosterman71 wrote: »

The British immigrants seem to have just realise that their holiday home lifestyle in the south of Spain is going to require some extra paperwork

Furious British expats blast EU's new post-Brexit travel rules which will ban them from spending more than three months at a time at their holiday home from January

I especially love the irony of those calling for the rules to be the same in both UK and EU (UK apparently you can group 60 days into one period). I thought they were totally against having shared rules, something about loss of sovereignty?

CelticRambler

fly_agaric wrote: »

All they way through this mess the Irish government have had a Polyannaish belief any day now the British are going to cop on/wake up or "something" will come along to make things all right (or at least not as bad as they could be)

Bearing in mind that it was the Irish (allegedly :rolleyes: ) who, at the outset, warned the EU negotiators that the British could not be trusted, so every i needed to be dotted and every t crossed in the WA before letting them move on to the trade talks, I'd say the government is completely aware of what needs to be done. And if there was any doubt about that earlier warning, Johnson & Co. proved it with their law-breaking IMB.

Frank Bullitt

Leroy42 wrote: »

I especially love the irony of those calling for the rules to be the same in both UK and EU (UK apparently you can group 60 days into one period). I thought they were totally against having shared rules, something about loss of sovereignty?

I love this part.

EU countries are under pressure to change the rules to allow longer stays amid fears the measures will spell the end for many people's dreams of having a foreign bolthole.

Imagine, in the depths of serious discussion, the negotiator brings up this. "Could you please change this rule so the people who voted to leave can still come to the EU and live the good life"

You love to see it.

trellheim

Folks I went off and checked the insurance thing.

According to NI Govt a Green Card will be required for NI Motorists to drive in the ROI from 01 Jan 21 see

Insurance for your vehicle, caravan or trailer
A ‘green card’ is proof that you have motor insurance cover when driving abroad. You should plan to carry one for the vehicle you’re driving in the EU and EEA, including in Ireland, from 1 January 2021.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/driving-in-the-eu-from-1-january-2021

that will cause some flap up north if its not already

Nody

fly_agaric wrote: »

Yes, its a worry (in my mind) that I get impression the government here have not internalised this/accepted it as a "real" possibility. All they way through this mess the Irish government have had a Polyannaish belief any day now the British are going to cop on/wake up or "something" will come along to make things all right (or at least not as bad as they could be) imo. I'd say that must be wearing off now, but it is far too late in the day to do any actual planning for the worst case, so what will be will be next year. Could get very interesting.

The Irish government has already planned for more space for controls at the ports, made sure additional routes to the continent are available to avoid the clusterflux that Dover - Calais will become and have plans for mobile controls at the NI border to go up day 1. They will not stop "normal" cars most likely but focus on trucks etc. and of course they only check INBOUND volume; I'm sure the enterprising people NI will realize the benefits of shopping in the south (VAT reclaimable!) and of course potential imports (VAT & duty reclaimed!) to NI and beyond. If the smuggling of booze, smokes and gasoline etc. is not hitting a minimum of 100 million EUR a week in a month I'll be shocked (I did a napkin calculation before and you'd save about a million EUR on a truck of cigarettes only on duty etc.). At the same time all those farmers who usually export to Ireland (milk, meat etc.) will get mightily upset when their goods gets returned at the border suddenly but the focus will definitely be in the Dover region in terms of newspapers; better headlines and more "relevant" people affected.

Seth Brundle

trellheim wrote: »

Folks I went off and checked the insurance thing.

According to NI Govt a Green Card will be required for NI Motorists to drive in the ROI from 01 Jan 21 see



https://www.gov.uk/guidance/driving-in-the-eu-from-1-january-2021

that will cause some flap up north if its not already

The Irish govt have also published details in terms of Brexit and transport...
https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/a09c0f-brexit/

Following the transition period, and in the event that no further arrangement is agreed, a certificate called a ‘Green Card’ which is issued by your insurer, and proves that the vehicle is insured, will be required for vehicles from the UK, including Northern Ireland, being driven in Ireland or other EU Member States. This means that, following the transition period, UK and Northern Ireland registered vehicles will require a Green Card for cross-border journeys, including North to South, on the island of Ireland.

A Green Card is a document that proves you have motor insurance cover when driving in another jurisdiction.
The UK authorities have confirmed that they will accept either a Green Card or other proof of insurance for Irish vehicles travelling in the UK they have further confirmed that they will accept the Irish motor insurance disc as proof of insurance. This means that Green Cards will not be required for Irish registered vehicles entering Northern Ireland or Great Britain, provided those vehicles carry an insurance disc
...
The majority of Irish motor insurance policies already include cover for travel in the UK. In such cases drivers will continue to be insured to drive in the UK.

If in doubt, policy holders should contact their insurance company to confirm that they have UK cover.
...
It is NOT an offence under Irish or EU law for GB or Northern Ireland registered vehicles to drive in Ireland without a GB sticker attached to the vehicle.
...
As and from the 31 December 2020 UK licences held by residents of Ireland will no longer be valid to drive here in Ireland. For that reason UK licence holders resident in Ireland should take steps to exchange their licence for an Irish one well in advance of that date.
...
The UK Government advises that arrangements for EU licence holders who are visiting or living there will not change after the UK leaves the EU. Therefore, visitors to the UK and Northern Ireland with driving licences from EU Member States, including Ireland, should enjoy the same arrangements as today.

fly_agaric

Nody wrote: »

The Irish government has already planned for more space for controls at the ports, made sure additional routes to the continent are available to avoid the clusterflux that Dover - Calais will become and have plans for mobile controls at the NI border to go up day 1. They will not stop "normal" cars most likely but focus on trucks etc. and of course they only check INBOUND volume; I'm sure the enterprising people NI will realize the benefits of shopping in the south (VAT reclaimable!) and of course potential imports (VAT & duty reclaimed!) to NI and beyond. If the smuggling of booze, smokes and gasoline etc. is not hitting a minimum of 100 million EUR a week in a month I'll be shocked (I did a napkin calculation before and you'd save about a million EUR on a truck of cigarettes only on duty etc.). At the same time all those farmers who usually export to Ireland (milk, meat etc.) will get mightily upset when their goods gets returned at the border suddenly but the focus will definitely be in the Dover region in terms of newspapers; better headlines and more "relevant" people affected.

I'm aware they (govt.) are reasonably well prepared as regards ports, and even the UK "land bridge" issues; that is more of a known quantity and far less sensitive of course. I was not aware of any public information on what they plan to do if the UK refuses to implement the Withdrawal agreement (edit: NI protocol). I'd guessed/thought it was nothing initially.

I remember at the start of the WA negotiations, Revenue started some work on customs for NI border. This emerged/leaked in the media & Varadkar ordered them to stop planning in case it would upset the UK (edit: or NI come to think of it) and/or prejudice the negotiations.

Zubeneschamali

fly_agaric wrote: »

I remember at the start of the WA negotiations, Revenue started some work on customs for NI border. This emerged/leaked in the media & Varadkar ordered them to stop planning in case it would upset the UK (edit: or NI come to think of it) and/or prejudice the negotiations.

No, Varadkar didn't tell them to stop planning, he told them to stop talking publicly about the plans.

Northam

The requirement for a green card to drive in the Republic hasn't caused much of a flap yet but it will. Insurance companies have said they are prepared for it but some say you need to request a green card that's valid for 15 days at least 2 weeks before you plan to travel or if you frequently cross the border you can request a green card that's valid for 1 year.
Axa ni say nothing has been finalised yet but if green cards are needed they will automatically be posted to customers without the need to apply and my own insurance company uploaded a document to my online account this week that they say is a certificate of insurance cover for the EU that replaces the need for a green card.

Nate--IRL--

What about going from south to north? Might that require a green card also?

Nate