Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

New visa rules announced.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-55133506

Things are starting to fall into place.

... while disenfranchising some Brits: Brexit has left British families unable to return to the UK

breezy1985

[Deleted User] wrote: »

New visa rules announced.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-55133506



Things are starting to fall into place.

£25k a year wipes out the entire hospitality workforce up to and including most Ast. managers which will surely come back to bite them when the realize all the people doing the crap low paid jobs are now voting citizens

trellheim

Similar to Irish government (IMO), you are not fully accepting the inevitable end consequences of current UK/Irish policy (UK hard Brexit, UK reneges on NI protocol, Ireland remains fully in the EU) for that border. There's no "out" here and something has to give in the end.

Ireland has its own red lines here and are treading it very carefully to try and keep the maximum amount onside.

The IM bill is not yet UK law hence no renege as yet.

However something, as mentioned, has to change as the deadline is fast approaching.

fly_agaric

trellheim wrote: »

Ireland has its own red lines here and are treading it very carefully to try and keep the maximum amount onside.

The IM bill is not yet UK law hence no renege as yet.

However something, as mentioned, has to change as the deadline is fast approaching.

I just don't trust this UK government of liars to implement NI protocol properly, even without them actually trying to put into law wiggle room to bend aspects of it later if it suits. That action was a surpise (to me).
So the day is drawing nearer for a wonderful "smugglers paradise" in Ireland with some of the ****e overflowing & ending up over on the continent somewhere. I don't think continued free access to the wider EU for agri-food stuff from Ireland (let alone Bord Bias "Origin Green" concept) is going to fare well well in that future. Am feeling more and more pessimistic about how it will all play out.

Strazdas

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I never thought i say it but the Irish parish pump politics does have a benefit to it, it keeps our TDs grounded closer to their constituents lives.

Bear with me please while i elaborate further

Someone mentioned the Crown few pages back, it really highlights how far away from day to day reality and average person both the royalty and the cabinet are, they are in totally different universes completely divorced from their constituents. The Crown actually does a great job highlighting it as far as historical fiction shows go.

How do Brexiteers feel about being ruled by Etonians and unelected elites? could it possibly be that the problems UK have stem from its complicated and un republican roots, which at their very core are still based on an old feudal system and lack of constitution for the modern day?

I was reading a very interesting Twitter post from a UK poster that English people are happy to be led by toffs and Eton types - such people are 'destined to lead'. But that they deeply resent anyone who came up from the working class telling them what to do. The complete opposite of what most of us in republics are used to.

Charles Babbage

fly_agaric wrote: »

It is not the same because this border still exists.

Physical manifestations disappeared due to the peace process (removal of the security elements) and the shared UK/Irish membership of the EU allowing for free flow of goods (no customs/import checks required).

NI is another country and majority of the population in NI want it to continue that way. IMO unlike the East Germans they (Unionists) may quite like the idea of a hardening border (if they don't have to live near it)!

Pretending otherwise is denying reality. Similar to Irish government (IMO), you are not fully accepting the inevitable end consequences of current UK/Irish policy (UK hard Brexit, UK reneges on NI protocol, Ireland remains fully in the EU) for that border. There's no "out" here and something has to give in the end.

The unionists may want the border, but they do not live anywhere near it. Let them put a border around their own area if they want.

declanflynn

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

That article contains some golded nuggets like this




This is hilarious, the government is already touting "big data" as the solution which will find the root causes of disruptions, when the root cause is staring at them in the face ... ... complete and utter lack of preparation from themselves for Brexit becoming a reality


If the pound collapses and becomes the British Rouble then 25 thousand pounds might not be such a big figure

Debenhams on the brink of collapse, 12,000 more jobs gone, britain really is the sick man of Europe, I'd say a long stay in ICU is on the cards after Jan 1 maybe even death.
The EU negotiating team must be in stitches looking across the table at the British clowns

ambro25

declanflynn wrote: »

(...)
The EU negotiating team must be in stitches looking across the table at the British clowns

I doubt that, somehow.

I mean, you must have posted/meant that in jest, I get that...but I believe what Barnier & team have been mostly experiencing, is exactly what Whitehall professionals & UK civil service types have for over 4 years: mountains of brain power standing at the ready to do a best-in-class job, hemmed in and sidelined by ever more incredible levels of vacuity, unprofessionalism and overall procrastination from No.10 & Ministers.

If the pay/perks/prestige-of-appointment/next-job-in-the-Commission did not keep you there, it'd long be enough to give them the rods, slam the door and go make a more worthwhile living elsewhere (...like much of the UK top civil service brass has been doing over these past 4 years indeed).

I wonder how many on that EU team have already put in for a *long* sabbatical starting 02 Jan 21. Fully expensed and with a cherry on top. At least.

CelticRambler

fly_agaric wrote: »

So the day is drawing nearer for a wonderful "smugglers paradise" in Ireland with some of the ****e overflowing & ending up over on the continent somewhere. I don't think continued free access to the wider EU for agri-food stuff from Ireland (let alone Bord Bias "Origin Green" concept) is going to fare well well in that future.

A combination of basic economics and Ireland's already well-established vigilance in respect of food standards would suggest that you (and the EU) have no reason to worry. Think about it: first of all, the UK doesn't produce any of that sh*te - they have to import it all (or the ingredients from which it's made) through normal commercial channels.

Then they have to turn it into something that can be exported to NI within the context of the NI Protocol, complete with all the paperwork and payment of tariffs to be reclaimed later. Only after they've paid their tariffs and landed it on the island of Ireland can they even think of selling it in the Republic (no chance of reclaiming the tarrifs if they've done that) or finding a way to flog it to the French or Germans. You'd have to be moving a massive amount of product for that to even to keep you in pocket money.

In any case, the day the UK says they're going to allow imports of American fillets of Salmonella, the EU will be keeping a close eye on everything even vaguely resembling a chicken that they try to send to the EU, with Irish inspectors at the forefront. Remember these are the guys and girls who found horsemeat in Eastern European lasagna. They know what they're doing.

And if that wasn't enough, I'd be very surprised if there isn't a clause deep in the 600 pages of whatever trade agreement is eventually signed allowing the EU to slam the door on a whole category of British products if even one of them is found to be non-compliant. So if someone working in Grange picks up on even one molecule of chlorine in a nugget, you could see every shipment of every fresh, chilled and frozen poultry meal left sitting in a truck in GB until their whole production chain has been given the green light - six months would be typical, based on similar instances that have happened to date.

declanflynn

ambro25 wrote: »

I doubt that, somehow.

I mean, you must have posted/meant that in jest, I get that...but I believe what Barnier & team have been mostly experiencing, is exactly what Whitehall professionals & UK civil service types have for over 4 years: mountains of brain power standing at the ready to do a best-in-class job, hemmed in and sidelined by ever more incredible levels of vacuity, unprofessionalism and overall procrastination from No.10 & Ministers.

If the pay/perks/prestige-of-appointment/next-job-in-the-Commission did not keep you there, it'd long be enough to give them the rods, slam the door and go make a more worthwhile living elsewhere (...like much of the UK top civil service brass has been doing over these past 4 years indeed).

I wonder how many on that EU team have already put in for a *long* sabbatical starting 02 Jan 21. Fully expensed and with a cherry on top. At least.

Partly in jest but if both parties in a duel are going to lose a body part, say one loses a toe nail and the other loses a leg, then the former has to have a giggle

Lemming

Deleted User wrote: »

New visa rules announced.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-55133506

Things are starting to fall into place.

"simple and flexible". Oh, and a non-refundable £610-1400 please whilst you're applying.

Zubeneschamali

fly_agaric wrote: »

There's no "out" here and something has to give in the end.

Well, yes, we all know that.

The Brits will have to give in the end.

fly_agaric

CelticRambler wrote: »

A combination of basic economics and Ireland's already well-established vigilance in respect of food standards would suggest that you (and the EU) have no reason to worry. Think about it: first of all, the UK doesn't produce any of that sh*te - they have to import it all (or the ingredients from which it's made) through normal commercial channels.

Then they have to turn it into something that can be exported to NI within the context of the NI Protocol, complete with all the paperwork and payment of tariffs to be reclaimed later. Only after they've paid their tariffs and landed it on the island of Ireland can they even think of selling it in the Republic (no chance of reclaiming the tarrifs if they've done that) or finding a way to flog it to the French or Germans. You'd have to be moving a massive amount of product for that to even to keep you in pocket money.

In any case, the day the UK says they're going to allow imports of American fillets of Salmonella, the EU will be keeping a close eye on everything even vaguely resembling a chicken that they try to send to the EU, with Irish inspectors at the forefront. Remember these are the guys and girls who found horsemeat in Eastern European lasagna. They know what they're doing.

And if that wasn't enough, I'd be very surprised if there isn't a clause deep in the 600 pages of whatever trade agreement is eventually signed allowing the EU to slam the door on a whole category of British products if even one of them is found to be non-compliant. So if someone working in Grange picks up on even one molecule of chlorine in a nugget, you could see every shipment of every fresh, chilled and frozen poultry meal left sitting in a truck in GB until their whole production chain has been given the green light - six months would be typical, based on similar instances that have happened to date.

I hope you are correct. Your scenario depends on UK implementing the protocol and to an extent maintaining standards ("the UK doesn't produce any of that ****e"). My worry is about the future (6 months to a year hence) and how all this will play out if UK do begin to reduce their standards and perhaps import more food from "Rest of the World" while also not implementing or even just "half-assing" the NI protocol checks because they don't care.
The "bad" stuff may come over the open border with a faked or non existant supply chain and end up mingled in with product here.
As regards "Irish inspectors being at the forefront" I am coming to believe the government has a deliberate blind spot about the border and the risk I think it presents for obvious reasons but I hope you are right here & I am wrong.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Well, yes, we all know that.

The Brits will have to give in the end.

I'm not so sure. I suppose we'll know (and be put out of our misery) to an extent over the coming months. Has been a very long 4 years!

CelticRambler

fly_agaric wrote: »

My worry is about the future (6 months to a year hence) and how all this will play out if UK do begin to reduce their standards and perhaps import more food from "Rest of the World" while also not implementing or even just "half-assing" the NI protocol checks because they don't care.

They have no choice, because (a) if they don't implement the NI protocol in its full entirety, then their trade deal with the EU will be suspended in its entirety until such time as they cop on (see recent examples of how the EU deals with the Swiss being a bit uppity); and (b) the EU doesn't trust them to do the checks, which is why the EU is insisting that EU inspectors do the checks, at ports in NI aswell as in the Republic. The British initially objected to these checks, but have since caved in the face of the cold, hard, unblinking EU stare.

fly_agaric wrote: »

The "bad" stuff may come over the open border with a faked or non existant supply chain and end up mingled in with product here.
As regards "Irish inspectors being at the forefront" I am coming to believe the government has a deliberate blind spot about the border and the risk I think it presents for obvious reasons but I hope you are right here & I am wrong.

Food safety inspectors (and their resources) are completely independent of the whatever raggle-taggle crowd occupies Dáil Éireann at any given time, and they report their findings simultaneously to Brussels and Dublin. There is no-one who will let the British - even those of a tricoloured persuasion north of the border - damage our reputation for high quality food.

PeadarCo

fly_agaric wrote: »

I hope you are correct. Your scenario depends on UK implementing the protocol and to an extent maintaining standards ("the UK doesn't produce any of that ****e"). My worry is about the future (6 months to a year hence) and how all this will play out if UK do begin to reduce their standards and perhaps import more food from "Rest of the World" while also not implementing or even just "half-assing" the NI protocol checks because they don't care.
The "bad" stuff may come over the open border with a faked or non existant supply chain and end up mingled in with product here.
As regards "Irish inspectors being at the forefront" I am coming to believe the government has a deliberate blind spot about the border and the risk I think it presents for obvious reasons but I hope you are right here & I am wrong.




I'm not so sure. I suppose we'll know (and be put out of our misery) to an extent over the coming months. Has been a very long 4 years!

The fact of the matter is Northern Ireland is part of the UK. If the UK makes decisions that means Northern Ireland is not part of the EU single market and customs Union we will have a hard border. That's the reality of life. The alternative is Ireland leave the EU. Brexiters have been rightly criticised for talking as if the UK still has an empire. However on the Irish side we have our extremists that forget/don't acknowledge that Northern Ireland is part of the UK until a majority votes otherwise. That's enshrined in the GFA. As long as NI is part of the UK the UK government makes the final decisions in relation to NI. So if the UK makes decisions that necessitates a hard border we will have a hard border.


The Irish government and EU have worked very hard to ensure there is no hard border. The potential consequences of the UK not adhering to the agreements its made is testament to that. However the UK is an independent country and they make the final decision on how to police their border and the laws within their country/state. If they are prepared to deal/live with the consequences of breaking their agreements there is nothing Ireland or the EU can do.

martingriff

Charles Babbage wrote: »

The unionists may want the border, but they do not live anywhere near it. Let them put a border around their own area if they want.

It doesn't work like that I am afraid

McGiver

CelticRambler wrote:

They have no choice, because (a) if they don't implement the NI protocol in its full entirety, then their trade deal with the EU will be suspended in its entirety until such time as they cop on (see recent examples of how the EU deals with the Swiss being a bit uppity); and (b) the EU doesn't trust them to do the checks, which is why the EU is insisting that EU inspectors do the checks, at ports in NI aswell as in the Republic. The British initially objected to these checks, but have since caved in the face of the cold, hard, unblinking EU stare.

The Swiss have a guillotine clause in the bilateral Treaties they have with the EU replicating the EEA agreement, de facto.

1. Will the EU-UK FTA contain such a guillotine law with respect to the WA (the Irish protocol)? I asked few days ago and nobody replied.

2. If UK go no deal then guillotine clause is obviously pointless then it's up to the Joint Committee, WTO or eventually Hague.

Nody

McGiver wrote: »

1. Will the EU-UK FTA contain such a guillotine law with respect to the WA (the Irish protocol)? I asked few days ago and nobody replied.

The deal has an built in dispute mechanism already; hence there is no direct connection to the FTA and in case the people of NI would vote to end it in a fair election as per the theoretical possibility there is no direct impact on the FTA (currently).

lawred2

Strazdas wrote: »

I was reading a very interesting Twitter post from a UK poster that English people are happy to be led by toffs and Eton types - such people are 'destined to lead'. But that they deeply resent anyone who came up from the working class telling them what to do. The complete opposite of what most of us in republics are used to.

Peasants

I don't think that's it though..

British middle class like to think themselves rich and as such must be seen to be voting for conservative..

One couldn't be voting for the laboring classes

CelticRambler

McGiver wrote: »

1. Will the EU-UK FTA contain such a guillotine law with respect to the WA (the Irish protocol)? I asked few days ago and nobody replied.

Whether or not it's explicitly defined in those precise terms remains to be seen, but we've already had the EU state that even the threat of messing around with the provisions of the WA (i.e. the now infamous IMB law-breaking paragraphs) is enough to put a trade deal on dry-ice.

fly_agaric

CelticRambler wrote: »

They have no choice, because (a) if they don't implement the NI protocol in its full entirety, then their trade deal with the EU will be suspended in its entirety until such time as they cop on (see recent examples of how the EU deals with the Swiss being a bit uppity); and (b) the EU doesn't trust them to do the checks, which is why the EU is insisting that EU inspectors do the checks, at ports in NI aswell as in the Republic. The British initially objected to these checks, but have since caved in the face of the cold, hard, unblinking EU stare.

Obviously impossible to know what is going on but I have my doubts there will be any agreement before 1/1/21 now. I think it would have happened already if it was going to happen. As before, hopefully UK will honour the promises already made but I don't believe a word of what this UK government says. I don't think they really know what they are doing themselves half the time either.

CelticRambler wrote: »

Food safety inspectors (and their resources) are completely independent of the whatever raggle-taggle crowd occupies Dáil Éireann at any given time, and they report their findings simultaneously to Brussels and Dublin. There is no-one who will let the British - even those of a tricoloured persuasion north of the border - damage our reputation for high quality food.

I didn't know that. However in my pessimistic scenario I wasn't thinking border smuggling causing problems with food quality or the like would go unnoticed by the EU (or our govt.), just that the govt. will allow it to happen, and if it does they'll decide what they will do about the crisis it brings on afterwards! Government here is very reactive.

An Ciarraioch

Interesting agreement on the signing of EU players by Premier League clubs post-Brexit - the points criteria shouldn't affect the transfer of established players, but only six under-21 players can be signed per season and none under 18:

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/55152637

Enzokk

Some interesting and tweets today,

https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/1333822588473184261?s=20

So things are getting close,

https://twitter.com/adamparsons/status/1333823882411827202?s=20

Or maybe not, seems like they have been in the tunnel for a while according to both sides.

Then this tweet on the upcoming Finance Bill,

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1333831315758702595?s=20

So basically that reads to me that if you don't give us a good deal then we will rip up the deal we signed with you before. That seems a risky strategy to take, then again this is Brexit UK right now and they think this may be the most sensible strategy that is sure to work.

An Claidheamh

While it would please the Irish government, should the UK be given a FTA or indeed a favourable one?

Looking at the big picture, it feels like a bad idea, and would be rewarding their threats, could set a dangerous precedent also

Sam Russell

An Claidheamh wrote: »

While it would please the Irish government, should the UK be given a FTA or indeed a favourable one?

Looking at the big picture, it feels like a bad idea, and would be rewarding their threats, could set a dangerous precedent also

Depends on the terms. If the EU gets the LPF, Governance, and fish, then OK, otherwise - NO.

McGiver

Nody wrote:

The deal has an built in dispute mechanism already; hence there is no direct connection to the FTA and in case the people of NI would vote to end it in a fair election as per the theoretical possibility there is no direct impact on the FTA (currently).

Well that's not good because the WA dispute would be completely independent of the FTA so you could end up with a situation where the UK refuses to implement/stops implementing the irish protocol but the FTA (if agreed) remains in effect. Which would be truly bizarre.

I hope Barnier et al put a clause in the FTA which would invalidate it (at least temporarily) if the WA was reneged upon, terminated, Linking the FTA to the Irish protocol compliance.

Sam Russell

McGiver wrote: »

Well that's not good because the WA dispute would be completely independent of the FTA so you could end up with a situation where the UK refuses to implement/stops implementing the irish protocol but the FTA (if agreed) remains in effect. Which would be truly bizarre.

I hope Barnier et al put a clause in the FTA which would invalidate it (at least temporarily) if the WA was reneged upon, terminated, Linking the FTA to the Irish protocol compliance.

The EP have made it clear they will not ratify the (any) FTA if the IMB or similar actions by the UK jeopardises the WA and in particular the GFA.

We are not alone in this.

Shelga

Nigel Dodds on Newsnight right now. Can Emily please please ask him what in god’s name the DUP wanted to achieve from Brexit? And how it is going to make his constituents’ lives better?

Jizique

Shelga wrote: »

Nigel Dodds on Newsnight right now. Can Emily please please ask him what in god’s name the DUP wanted to achieve from Brexit? And how it is going to make his constituents’ lives better?

He doesn’t have constituents anymore thank god, he is an unelected member of the upper hoisr

Strazdas

Sam Russell wrote: »

Depends on the terms. If the EU gets the LPF, Governance, and fish, then OK, otherwise - NO.

I cannot see any sort of an EU cave in on those three. Barnier and von der Leyen have been emphatic there will be no major climb down.