Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1335284402209890307

Boris needs to think hard about the choreography here.

Surely unthinkable they would introduce the bill on Monday prior?

Strazdas

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Vous êtes d'accord!

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1335283257492066306

That still sounds like stalemate (as per Tony Connelly's tweets).

Frank Bullitt

Enzokk wrote: »

Not sure if this is an update on the talks between Barnier and Frost, or from the phone call,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1335248494567755776?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1335248497545719808?s=20

So basically either no-deal if this is from the call between VDL and Johnson or a major climb down from either side to get a deal.

Fish...FISH! Ruining your economy over fish...still will never not absolutely stun me.

Infini

Strazdas wrote: »

That still sounds like stalemate (as per Tony Connelly's tweets).

I'd say more accurately a checkmate for us. The UK has burned its bridges, removed and rejected all options and extentions to reach a proper deal and is using failed threats to get its own way even though it's woefully unprepared.

Meanwhile we've prepared as much as possible, done what we could with the time we had and kept all options available. In addition the EU has esssntially put it on Boris to be the one who makes the choice, if those IMB clauses are there Monday its game over for talks as they'll have basically chosen to break their own agreements.

I'm not a betting man but all the signs are pointing to a full retard No Deal Brexit, the UK are run by a cabal with no integrity, intelligence, tact and are untrustworty. The EU has been as reasonable and as flexible as possible but honestly theres only so much you can do before it reaches the point where one cannot compromise further and you have to stick to your principals.

End of the day if Boris and co want to inflict this damage we may not be able to stop them but neither will any of this be forgotten and they could find themselves in serious trouble when their project ultimately implodes and they're forced to come grovelling for a dig out of a mess of their own creation if theyre still even in power by that stage.

Infini

Gintonious wrote: »

Fish...FISH! Ruining your economy over fish...still will never not absolutely stun me.

The fish is a distraction and a look over here thing, its the other 2 areas that are the real reasons for this (soviergnty BS from the UK) where they want serious advantages to exploit with no oversight or control.

Leroy42

Gintonious wrote: »

Fish...FISH! Ruining your economy over fish...still will never not absolutely stun me.

It has nothing to do with fish, fish is just a convenient scapegoat, a position of strength that the UK actually has that it knows it can use to avoid having to accept its weakness in other areas and they have convinced the rest of the UK that it is actually important when you can bet that most people have little to no knowledge of fishing or the industry and couldn't care less.

The real issue is that the UK cannot get a deal without agreeing to the LPF, rules they happily signed up (more in fact) in the Japan deal.

But that would involve agreeing to EU rules, and that just can't be accepted. And they knew that from Day 1. SO they found an issue that resonated with the general population which gives them the 'authority' to walk away.

It is the trick to try to portray what is essentially a disaster in terms of the Brexit everyone was promised with the grim reality.

Jizique

Infini wrote: »

The fish is a distraction and a look over here thing, its the other 2 areas that are the real reasons for this (soviergnty BS from the UK) where they want serious advantages to exploit with no oversight or control.

Agree - the EU would be mad to trust them.
The leaders of this coup are dedicated to the dissolution of the EU, so conceding to them on LPF would be a huge mistake.

Infini

Jizique wrote: »

Agree - the EU would be mad to trust them.
The leaders of this coup are dedicated to the dissolution of the EU, so conceding to them on LPF would be a huge mistake.

The thing is noone trusts them, the EU side have made stipulations even to oversight on this becauss they dont trust them, that being said if they look for a deal after Brexit they'll get even less favourable conditions or even more stipulatons and they'll have little choice as this wojt be forgotten by us.

Capt'n Midnight

Gintonious wrote: »

Fish...FISH! Ruining your economy over fish...still will never not absolutely stun me.

The UK wants £300m worth of fish.

Against that EU has offered more than £100m and blocking UK access to EU waters would block £100m of fish.

So the haggling is over less than £100m of fish.

And if there's no deal there may be tariffs on exported fish and bans on chilled exports. So that £100m might not translate into much profit.


And that's before you consider how much of the UK fishing industry is foreign owned and crewed so there is the difficulty that the UK's indigenous industry might not have full capacity.

Strazdas

Infini wrote: »

The fish is a distraction and a look over here thing, its the other 2 areas that are the real reasons for this (soviergnty BS from the UK) where they want serious advantages to exploit with no oversight or control.

Several Brussels correspondents have said this. The Brexiteers couldn't give a flying fig about fishermen, it's just a diversion.

declanflynn

Infini wrote: »

I'd say more accurately a checkmate for us. The UK has burned its bridges, removed and rejected all options and extentions to reach a proper deal and is using failed threats to get its own way even though it's woefully unprepared.

Meanwhile we've prepared as much as possible, done what we could with the time we had and kept all options available. In addition the EU has esssntially put it on Boris to be the one who makes the choice, if those IMB clauses are there Monday its game over for talks as they'll have basically chosen to break their own agreements.

I'm not a betting man but all the signs are pointing to a full retard No Deal Brexit, the UK are run by a cabal with no integrity, intelligence, tact and are untrustworty. The EU has been as reasonable and as flexible as possible but honestly theres only so much you can do before it reaches the point where one cannot compromise further and you have to stick to your principals.

End of the day if Boris and co want to inflict this damage we may not be able to stop them but neither will any of this be forgotten and they could find themselves in serious trouble when their project ultimately implodes and they're forced to come grovelling for a dig out of a mess of their own creation if theyre still even in power by that stage.

Its been check mate to us since 2016, but the uk is continuing to play even without a king, but in the end even boris will have to admit that the uk has lost

Lumen

On the fish thing, I don't actually think the fraction of English people who have opinions on the subject care who owns the boats, or who mans the boats, or who ends up eating the fish, as long as the fish are landed and processed in England. The story is about loss of traditional land-based industry. This was covered extensively in the British news coverage around the time of referendum and first few seasons of Brexit.

I don't claim to understand modern commercial fishing though. Maybe all the processing happens at sea on super trawlers.

Strazdas

Lumen wrote: »

On the fish thing, I don't actually think the fraction of English people who have opinions on the subject care who owns the boats, or who mans the boats, or who ends up eating the fish, as long as the fish are landed and processed in England. The story is about loss of traditional land-based industry. This was covered extensively in the British news coverage around the time of referendum and first few seasons of Brexit.

I don't claim to understand modern commercial fishing though. Maybe all the processing happens at sea on super trawlers.

But they are destroying many other industries in the process, especially importers and exporters.

Saving the fishing fleet on its own would be fine in theory but they are taking a wrecking ball to the entire economy - a bunch of vandals.

Lumen

Strazdas wrote: »

But they are destroying many other industries in the process, especially importers and exporters.

Saving the fishing fleet on its own would be fine in theory but they are taking a wrecking ball to the entire economy - a bunch of vandals.

I don't disagree. I'm not justifying it.

ancapailldorcha

Strazdas wrote: »

But they are destroying many other industries in the process, especially importers and exporters.

Saving the fishing fleet on its own would be fine in theory but they are taking a wrecking ball to the entire economy - a bunch of vandals.

It is not, nor has it ever been about saving fishermen, fishing fleets, shares in quotas, or fish processing operations.

Brexit is and always has been an expression of political rage which has been fostered and fomented for decades by a group of unscrupulous press barons, financiers, and politicians looking to peddle easy answers to win votes combined with a broken electoral system which effectively discards votes not for party A or party B and the economic ruination of large parts of the country by conservatives and neoliberals.

As regards the rhetoric that we hear from outside the political sphere, it's there to save face. "We should trade more with the US and the Commonwealth" sounds better than "I hate Poles" or "Why should we have to follow EU regulations I can't name?"

For most of the latter half of the last century and the first two decades of this one, the United Kingdom has been integrating its economy more and more with those of the other EU member states. It lobbied hard for increasing the advancement and completion of the single market and EU enlargement and now, at the flip of a switch it wants to undo decades of integration? I mean, that can be done but it's going to hurt and will be a long term project. No amount of nationalist invective will speed that along or soothe the damage there.

Part of the problem is that some of the benefits of EU membership like Erasmus and free movement are disproportionately enjoyed by the young so it's easier to sell the stripping away of the rights of social democrats, liberals and socialists to older conservatives who, let's be honest very much enjoy inflicting unnecessary misery on others. I appreciate that that's a colossal generalisation and there are of course myriad exceptions. I'm basing the above on attitudes of Tory voters I've known in real life and the behaviour of the Conservative party they vote for consistently.

So, yeah. Your average Brit has generally little enough idea how the EU works save for the fact that it's somehow taking over the country in ways they can't describe despite allowing them a free vote on whether or not to leave. The stuff about fish is just sloganeering so that they can justify voting to leave without sounding like idiots. This is essential because they've never had to think about how the EU works, what benefits it brings, how it can be better and what they can do to engage with it. The media has either demonised it or just sat quietly by. In fairness, nobody here ever made a positive case for EU membership after 1975. They never felt it was necessary and this is the result.

I'm done. I really am. Ideally, there'll be both no deal and continuing flights between Ireland and London so I can have a convenient egress if necessary. If people voted leave because the former Ottoman Empire is about to join and that the EU should go back to being a trade deal (that one in particular is a bugbear) then it was too late for them in 2016 so we can't be surprised now.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It is not, nor has it ever been about saving fishermen, fishing fleets, shares in quotas, or fish processing operations.

Brexit is and always has been an expression of political rage which has been fostered and fomented for decades by a group of unscrupulous press barons, financiers, and politicians looking to peddle easy answers to win votes combined with a broken electoral system which effectively discards votes not for party A or party B and the economic ruination of large parts of the country by conservatives and neoliberals.

As regards the rhetoric that we hear from outside the political sphere, it's there to save face. "We should trade more with the US and the Commonwealth" sounds better than "I hate Poles" or "Why should we have to follow EU regulations I can't name?"

For most of the latter half of the last century and the first two decades of this one, the United Kingdom has been integrating its economy more and more with those of the other EU member states. It lobbied hard for increasing the advancement and completion of the single market and EU enlargement and now, at the flip of a switch it wants to undo decades of integration? I mean, that can be done but it's going to hurt and will be a long term project. No amount of nationalist invective will speed that along or soothe the damage there.

Part of the problem is that some of the benefits of EU membership like Erasmus and free movement are disproportionately enjoyed by the young so it's easier to sell the stripping away of the rights of social democrats, liberals and socialists to older conservatives who, let's be honest very much enjoy inflicting unnecessary misery on others. I appreciate that that's a colossal generalisation and there are of course myriad exceptions. I'm basing the above on attitudes of Tory voters I've known in real life and the behaviour of the Conservative party they vote for consistently.

So, yeah. Your average Brit has generally little enough idea how the EU works save for the fact that it's somehow taking over the country in ways they can't describe despite allowing them a free vote on whether or not to leave. The stuff about fish is just sloganeering so that they can justify voting to leave without sounding like idiots. This is essential because they've never had to think about how the EU works, what benefits it brings, how it can be better and what they can do to engage with it. The media has either demonised it or just sat quietly by. In fairness, nobody here ever made a positive case for EU membership after 1975. They never felt it was necessary and this is the result.

I'm done. I really am. Ideally, there'll be both no deal and continuing flights between Ireland and London so I can have a convenient egress if necessary. If people voted leave because the former Ottoman Empire is about to join and that the EU should go back to being a trade deal (that one in particular is a bugbear) then it was too late for them in 2016 so we can't be surprised now.

Excellent post.

Lumen

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Excellent post.

I don't see how the logic applies now..

If nobody cares about fish, why is it being cited as a blocker? Brexit is done, the UK is out, this is now about the terms under which it trades from the outside.

Either fish matter, or it's an excuse to blow up the negotiations and force "no deal". Or they're all mad/idiots.

Professor Moriarty

Lumen wrote: »

I don't see how the logic applies now..

If nobody cares about fish, why is it being cited as a blocker? Brexit is done, the UK is out, this is now about the terms under which it trades from the outside.

Either fish matter, or it's an excuse to blow up the negotiations and force "no deal". Or they're all mad/idiots.

Fish is totemic. It's meaningless, just a useful foil to walk away. The Brexiteers are being hoisted by their own petard. The real problem is that they can't now be seen to become a client state of the EU via a level playing pitch. They admitted they actually didn't expect to win in 2016 but they won. Now the rubber is hitting the road. They've cut the throat of their own economy and society but look over there. Look at all the fish we have.

ancapailldorcha

Lumen wrote: »

I don't see how the logic applies now..

If nobody cares about fish, why is it being cited as a blocker? Brexit is done, the UK is out, this is now about the terms under which it trades from the outside.

Either fish matter, or it's an excuse to blow up the negotiations and force "no deal". Or they're all mad/idiots.

It's totemic, that's why. They've spent year upon year harping on and on incessantly about fish to stop now. The gaming and biotechnology industries among others are worth far more and are also vulnerable but you never hear about them. It's always fish and the reason for that is cultural.

That applies to the French as well of course but they occupy a position of strength and we tend to focus on British politics here for obvious reasons.

If fishermen go bankrupt, do you think the Costa del Sol brigade are going to send them money or show solidarity? Of course not. They'll be too busy moaning about having to fork over an insignificant amount of money for tourist visas.

Nody

Lumen wrote: »

I don't see how the logic applies now..

If nobody cares about fish, why is it being cited as a blocker? Brexit is done, the UK is out, this is now about the terms under which it trades from the outside.

Either fish matter, or it's an excuse to blow up the negotiations and force "no deal". Or they're all mad/idiots.

Both applies depending on who you apply it to. For some it's the hill to die on for the glory of queen and country as this is the summary of their dreams and all they think is wrong in the world. The fact it's not related to EU that the car industry, ship building left UK which is the glory days they dream of or simply people to know their proper place. The other group wants a no deal brexit (no real nefarious reasons beyond they are paid by disaster capital companies who're set to make hundred of millions on a crash out through speculation, buying distressed assets etc.).

Spanish Eyes

Four years on and down to the wire again. Like the all nighters our Unions pulled back in the day.

Optics. But I do hope that whatever deal is reached upsets the UK more than the EU. Is that OK to say, so feck them really at this stage.

Professor Moriarty

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Four years on and down to the wire again. Like the all nighters our Unions pulled back in the day.

Optics. But I do hope that whatever deal is reached upsets the UK more than the EU. Is that OK to say, so feck them really at this stage.

It must be worse for the UK. Nothing personal against our erstwhile friendly partners. It's simply a crucial existential matter for the EU. If Britain walks and thrives, the EU fragments.

Spanish Eyes

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It must be worse for the UK. Nothing personal against our erstwhile friendly partners. It's simply a crucial existential matter for the EU. If Britain walks and thrives, the EU fragments.

Do you think that is a possibility/probability?

Professor Moriarty

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Do you think that is a possibility/probability?

I do think it's a definite possibility. The EU is fraying at the edges at the moment. Brexit aside, Hungary and Poland are causing serious trouble. And this is immediately after damaging infighting over the Covid-19 rescue package. People, and their countries, are under great strain and this strain is affecting the EU. Plus there are populists in many countries waiting in the long grass to copy and paste Farage and Johnson if Britain is seen to do well in these negotiations.

Infini

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Do you think that is a possibility/probability?

Not a hope of them thriving in anywhere near than what they were inside the EU, they've failed before they started because they forgot the first thing about trade in today's world: The largest countries will always win because their numbers are BIGGER than yours. The EU is unlikely to fragment either, Poland and Hungary might be acting up thanks to their governments but like with the budget if it goes on too long they lose access to those EU funds they badly need and the rules are there for a reason. Considering how the UK will end up being a case of how idiots destroy nations it wont take too long for Oroban to realise his own people will turn on him if he keeps it up and starts affecting their lives and no amount of bluster saves incompetent leaders.

The world is gradually but without a doubt moving towards large continental wide trading blocks involving various contries based ironically on the EU model as it's so much easier to pool these resources that people need and prevent other less scrupilous players from market dumping etc.

The truth in all of this though is those in charge of the UK today are idiots, chancers and incompetent gobshítes who managed to dupe their way into power with gaslighting and lies and it's all about to come crashing down. They'll pull whatever they can and because of their broken political system they'll get away with it for a while but Karma's a bítch and it will all come back to bite them one day.

Unfortunately the price for this will likely mean they'll lose Scotland and we'll get a United Ireland when all is said and done and they'll be a much smaller nation but that's the price to be paid when system's fail to look after the interests of their nation. The only hope they'll have is that they get a Labor government in someday that implement's badly needed reform's including disposing of First Past the Post and a written Constitution and those who oversaw this are hauled over the coals for what they've done.

kalych

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I do think it's a definite possibility. The EU is fraying at the edges at the moment. Brexit aside, Hungary and Poland are causing serious trouble. And this is immediately after damaging infighting over the Covid-19 rescue package. People, and their countries, are under great strain and this strain is affecting the EU. Plus there are populists in many countries waiting in the long grass to copy and paste Farage and Johnson if Britain is seen to do well in these negotiations.

Looks like the exact opposite to me. EU dealt with Brexit really well considering none of us were sure if UK hope to split the EU and see more nations leave would have worked. That massive challenge is a non-issue as no other nation would dream of following the UK now.

Poland and Hungary as all autocracies will cause a headache only for as long as their current leaders hold power, but also they're very inwards-looking nations who will try to slow down EU only insofar as it benefits them. And they benefit from the EU greatly. The budget thing will pass soon and everyone will forget about Poland until they adopt another deplorable law to 'protect traditional family values'.

No populists in any EU country now openly talking about leaving the EU anymore after the UK Brexit debacle. Merely 'reforming' it. Whatever that means. Seems to me you are struggling to see signs of impending doom where none exist.

Nody

kalych wrote: »

No populists in any EU country now openly talking about leaving the EU anymore after the UK Brexit debacle. Merely 'reforming' it. Whatever that means. Seems to me you are struggling to see signs of impending doom where none exist.

Less immigration, no expansion for same reasons, no budget requirements for countries (to allow them to borrow to pay for all give outs to everyone) and usually less money to EU (usually unspecified how/what EU is suppose to stop except "less bureaucracy"). I.e. the usual populist stuff you'd expect to see from a party knowing they will never actually have to deliver on their promises. The few times such parties do come into power (Denmark, Italy, Finland etc.) they have a tendency to fail horribly to live up to their promises for some odd reason...

Kermit.de.frog

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

our erstwhile friendly partners.

Our friendly partners are about to place a permanent sword of damocles over this country in the form of a hard border at any time of their choosing.

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1335328848855052289

Will the EU allow this to happen? - if they do we are thrown under the bus.

Or will they demand the UK remove the clauses in these bills related to NI?

I can make an educated guess on what way this will go and that we will end up shafted in relation to this. The next few days will reveal all.

joeysoap

Britain hoping Ireland, Holland, then Austria and Italy sand Greece and a A. Le Pen led French exit. We didn't follow Holland didn't follow and. LE PEN opting for changes rather then leaving. Though that could change.

Professor Moriarty

kalych wrote: »

Looks like the exact opposite to me. EU dealt with Brexit really well considering none of us were sure if UK hope to split the EU and see more nations leave would have worked. That massive challenge is a non-issue as no other nation would dream of following the UK now.

Poland and Hungary as all autocracies will cause a headache only for as long as their current leaders hold power, but also they're very inwards-looking nations who will try to slow down EU only insofar as it benefits them. And they benefit from the EU greatly. The budget thing will pass soon and everyone will forget about Poland until they adopt another deplorable law to 'protect traditional family values'.

No populists in any EU country now openly talking about leaving the EU anymore after the UK Brexit debacle. Merely 'reforming' it. Whatever that means. Seems to me you are struggling to see signs of impending doom where none exist.

I'm not seeing "impending doom". I said there is a possibility. And there is a possibility. If Britain were to be see to 'win' these negotiations then that would embolden populists to jump on the exit wagon. They've done it before when it suited them and they would do it again. It's simply a matter of harnessing disaffection and blaming the EU to get elected - just as the Tories did.

The autocrats in Poland and Hungary, for instance, are quiet now because they benefit economically. Once that dial begins to turn, you'll see their nationalism in full bloom. Personally, I see a smaller but more cohesive EU forming over the next twenty years as some countries break off for populist conservative reasons.