Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Nate--IRL--

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Our friendly partners are about to place a permanent sword of damocles over this country in the form of a hard border at any time of their choosing.

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1335328848855052289

Will the EU allow this to happen?

If the UK wants a hard border, nobody could stop them. It wouldn't be without major consequences, but they can do it if they really wanted to.

Nate

jelem

Infini wrote: »

Not a hope of them thriving in anywhere near than what they were inside the EU, they've failed before they started because they forgot the first thing about trade in today's world: The largest countries will always win because their numbers are BIGGER than yours. The EU is unlikely to fragment either, Poland and Hungary might be acting up thanks to their governments but like with the budget if it goes on too long they lose access to those EU funds they badly need and the rules are there for a reason. Considering how the UK will end up being a case of how idiots destroy nations it wont take too long for Oroban to realise his own people will turn on him if he keeps it up and starts affecting their lives and no amount of bluster saves incompetent leaders.

The world is gradually but without a doubt moving towards large continental wide trading blocks involving various contries based ironically on the EU model as it's so much easier to pool these resources that people need and prevent other less scrupilous players from market dumping etc.

The truth in all of this though is those in charge of the UK today are idiots, chancers and incompetent gobshítes who managed to dupe their way into power with gaslighting and lies and it's all about to come crashing down. They'll pull whatever they can and because of their broken political system they'll get away with it for a while but Karma's a bítch and it will all come back to bite them one day.

Unfortunately the price for this will likely mean they'll lose Scotland and we'll get a United Ireland when all is said and done and they'll be a much smaller nation but that's the price to be paid when system's fail to look after the interests of their nation. The only hope they'll have is that they get a Labor government in someday that implement's badly needed reform's including disposing of First Past the Post and a written Constitution and those who oversaw this are hauled over the coals for what they've done.

uk will trade unrestricted with china ,ireland will have to abide by eu rules on trade with china.
(china is a larger market now than usa.)
a simple thing as this you fail to notice or point out.

Enzokk

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Our friendly partners are about to place a permanent sword of damocles over this country in the form of a hard border at any time of their choosing.

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1335328848855052289

Will the EU allow this to happen? - if they do we are thrown under the bus.

Or will they demand the UK remove the clauses in these bills related to NI?

I can make an educated guess on what way this will go and that we will end up shafted in relation to this. The next few days will reveal all.

We will have to see what happens on Monday. I am not hopeful though, seeing as both Frost and Barnier has already released a statement that they have gone as far as they can. Either way anything that happens on this island is the consequences of the UK and their decisions. It is possible we will be shafted, but that is not something we can control right now.

So I guess there will be no movement from the negotiators unless one of them has been given a mandate to move. I suspect we will see where this is going when they bring back the IM bill. If they insert the clauses that undermines the WA then it will be no FTA on 1 January. The intentions of Johnson will then be very clear.

jelem

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

If the UK wants a hard border, nobody could stop them. It wouldn't be without major consequences, but they can do it if they really wanted to.

Nate

another whom is mistaken as uk stated will not place border.
it is eu whom will force ireland to have border and impose tarrifs

Kermit.de.frog

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

If the UK wants a hard border, nobody could stop them. It wouldn't be without major consequences, but they can do it if they really wanted to.

Nate

That's not the real test.

The real test is whether the EU, in the process of agreeing a deal, will demand the clauses are removed immediately.

I don't think they will.

Maybe they'll surprise me.

Strazdas

joeysoap wrote: »

Britain hoping Ireland, Holland, then Austria and Italy sand Greece and a A. Le Pen led French exit. We didn't follow Holland didn't follow and. LE PEN opting for changes rather then leaving. Though that could change.

No country will be leaving the EU. There isn't such a campaign going on in any member state.

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Our friendly partners are about to place a permanent sword of damocles over this country in the form of a hard border at any time of their choosing.

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1335328848855052289

Will the EU allow this to happen? - if they do we are thrown under the bus.

Or will they demand the UK remove the clauses in these bills related to NI?

I can make an educated guess on what way this will go and that we will end up shafted in relation to this. The next few days will reveal all.

Let's drop the crap about this once and for all. The only one's getting shafted will be the UK BY THEMSELVES. . There wont be a hard border though there will be an economic one and should it see NI getting wrecked from this then the next likely thing to happen in this area will be reunification expecially when those who have their saving and pay in £'s find themselves far worse off.

The headbangers wont be able to prevent a United Ireland from happening if the middle class normal unionsts find themselves getting hammered to the point reuniting with the rest of their own island is far better for everyone in the long run including themselves. And let's not forget the strong likelyhood that Scotland will break away in the next few years.

Ireland will be fine, we will get the support we need because end of the day were a part of the EU and we'll manage like we always do. Not to mention by having a friendly ally in the US and support of the EU that we'll be able to get by until event's force a resolution wether the UK is forced to crawl back for a deal of somesort or it ultimately break's up and we end up with Scotland as a next door neighbour we can actually talk with.

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Our friendly partners are about to place a permanent sword of damocles over this country in the form of a hard border at any time of their choosing.

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1335328848855052289

Will the EU allow this to happen? - if they do we are thrown under the bus.

Or will they demand the UK remove the clauses in these bills related to NI?

I can make an educated guess on what way this will go and that we will end up shafted in relation to this. The next few days will reveal all.

I can't see them throwing Ireland under the bus for two main reasons. Firstly, it wouldn't play well with the Biden administration which publicly and repeatedly said that the GFA must be protected. This has major impact on US-EU relations. Secondly, and most importantly, if the EU doesn't protect and be seen to protect all countries within its jurisdiction, especially small countries, then what is its raison d'etre?

Infini

Strazdas wrote: »

No country will be leaving the EU. There isn't such a campaign going on in any member state.

Brexit: The campaign that led a nation to unwisely leave the EU that had the bonus of killing all the other one's in the EU trying to do the same for their respective countries.

Enzokk

jelem wrote: »

uk will trade unrestricted with china ,ireland will have to abide by eu rules on trade with china.
(china is a larger market now than usa.)
a simple thing as this you fail to notice or point out.

Really, unrestricted? Is China known for their FTA's with other countries?



That is the countries that China has trade deals with. This is the EU's,



Somehow a country that has been cautious to strike trade deals are going to negotiate one with the UK with favourable terms for the UK. We will just forget the UK's statements on Hong Kong recently, I am sure China will just ignore those because the trade with the UK will be so advantageous and prosperous for the Chinese.

declanflynn

jelem wrote: »

uk will trade unrestricted with china ,ireland will have to abide by eu rules on trade with china.
(china is a larger market now than usa.)
a simple thing as this you fail to notice or point out.

If the uk agrees a fee trade deal with China it will destroy what's left of its economy

Professor Moriarty

Infini wrote: »

Brexit: The campaign that led a nation to unwisely leave the EU that had the bonus of killing all the other one's in the EU trying to do the same for their respective countries.

Well put. That's the hope. It has to be a sh1tshow pour encourager les autres.

Nate--IRL--

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That's not the real test.

The real test is whether the EU, in the process of agreeing a deal, will demand the clauses are removed immediately.

I don't think they will.

Maybe they'll surprise me.

Ah, sorry I see. Well the EU parliament are on record saying any agreement won't be ratified with those clauses in place. But whether it'd form part of the actual agreement is unknown.

Nate

CelticRambler

jelem wrote: »

uk will trade unrestricted with china ,ireland will have to abide by eu rules on trade with china.

Ireland already has a bigger trade surplus with China than the UK, while both are subject to EU rules. Tell us how the UK is suddenly going to do better than us when they haven't been able to do so over the last ten years, despite having ten times the population.

Lemming

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I do think it's a definite possibility

I think that's being overly generous to those "brilliant minds" behind Brexit. They are now showing themselves up as thugs in wider international trade talks. Their imagined ability to throw notions of weight around in trade negotiation with much smaller nations/economies is already finding itself butting up against the modern world reality of geographical trade blocs. Not looking too good for "Global Britain" and fantasies about jolly good buccaneering romps across the globe.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I can make an educated guess on what way this will go and that we will end up shafted in relation to this.

The only party who will be responsible for shafting Ireland will be the UK. At the end of the day, if the UK (or any other nation for that matter) refuses to police its own borders in spite of any and all diplomatic and economic consequences then there is little that Ireland or anyone else can do about it. The only other option is so absurd I'm not going to even mention it.

roosterman71

On COVID, the UK have deals in place with manufacturers for the vaccine. How will those agreements work post 31/12? Will the vaccine still be able to be imported? Will their be tariffs? What about NI in those cases? It's currently getting some doses via the UK. Will that change to EU?

And how about the Oxford vaccine candidate if it's manufactured in the UK?

declanflynn

jelem wrote: »

another whom is mistaken as uk stated will not place border.
it is eu whom will force ireland to have border and impose tarrifs

I taut the uk wanted to take back control of its borders?

jelem

"middle class normal unionsts find themselves getting hammered" under the waffle at the moment
those mentioned will enjoy what the republic enjoy- so "straw" and waste of your typing.
shows a lack of clarity in your assumptions.
good friday is used to keep both communities on a par === hence the problem and also
the north being dual standard.
SO maybe you understand your lack of clarity and understanding which had you type the above
statement

Nody

jelem wrote: »

another whom is mistaken as uk stated will not place border.
it is eu whom will force ireland to have border and impose tarrifs

Well seeing how "great" their deal with Japan was (over 80% of the benefit going to Japan and the only 9 improvements out of over 4000 lines were for items they had not sold to Japan for 3+ years) I'm sure the UK economy will greatly benefit in 2070 from finally being allowed to trade freely with China. As well UK being such a push over in the trade market I'm sure UK will have no problems enforcing any breaches of things such as copyright, intellectual theft of property, citizen rights, environmental protection, chemical specification etc. After all China is well known in the world for being a bastion of protecting such rights for companies from outside China.

paul71

declanflynn wrote: »

If the uk agrees a fee trade deal with China it will destroy what's left of its economy

It won't happen, China does not do Free trade unless it is for mineral resources it requires (Australia) UK has nothing to offer China.

jelem

declanflynn wrote: »

I taut the uk wanted to take back control of its borders?

haha as poor and weak as the "middle class normal unionsts find themselves getting hammered"
statement - do you really not know what is going on.
ahhh i see you been listening to mr.coveney whom constantly states the uk parliament "has To"
As stated before the uk parliament only does what citizens and court demand, this unlike
ireland where judges allow government to sort out issues themselves (independents take
issue to court) and judges lets government off hook and dont even give a timeline to fix issues.
wrong mindset attempting to claim others are as bad as irish.

declanflynn

jelem wrote: »

haha as poor and weak as the "middle class normal unionsts find themselves getting hammered"
statement - do you really not know what is going on.
ahhh i see you been listening to mr.coveney whom constantly states the uk parliament "has To"
As stated before the uk parliament only does what citizens and court demand, this unlike
ireland where judges allow government to sort out issues themselves (independents take
issue to court) and judges lets government off hook and dont even give a timeline to fix issues.
wrong mindset attempting to claim others are as bad as irish.

Best of luck after Jan 1st in District 12 of Europe

Sam Russell

paul71 wrote: »

It won't happen, China does not do Free trade unless it is for mineral resources it requires (Australia) UK has nothing to offer China.

China is not even answering the phone to Australian Ministers - at least not until they apologise - not sure what for but still the Aussies are not happy.

jelem

paul71 wrote: »

It won't happen, China does not do Free trade unless it is for mineral resources it requires (Australia) UK has nothing to offer China.

recent trade "pact" in that part of planet - china australia indonesia etc.
when look at the citizen "market" size of this bloc it is there for uk.
unfortunate i do not recall the recent article in print on this situation by
some economist.

paul71

Sam Russell wrote: »

China is not even answering the phone to Australian Ministers - at least not until they apologise - not sure what for but still the Aussies are not happy.

That is true Sam but they have a FTA with Australia, they don't need to answer the phone. Any relationship with China for a country of the size of UK or Australia is one-sided.

CelticRambler

jelem wrote: »

recent trade "pact" in that part of planet - china australia indonesia etc.
when look at the citizen "market" size of this bloc it is there for uk.

So I'll ask you again: how come Ireland has been able to take advantage of that market and run a significant trade surplus; while Britain runs a huge deficit. What are they going to export to that bloc that'll change things and help them catch up with us (while we continue to grow our trade)?

Nody

jelem wrote: »

recent trade "pact" in that part of planet - china australia indonesia etc.
when look at the citizen "market" size of this bloc it is there for uk.
unfortunate i do not recall the recent article in print on this situation by
some economist.

And you may note that the countries appear to be one side of the world clustered (odd that the trade blocks tend to be in one area, almost like there's more trade locally than globally, I wonder what trade block exist in Europe...) and UK on the other; oh and Finance is excluded from the deal. Hence please do please share what exactly is UK going to produce, and export, to the other side of the world competitively out of the blue?

jelem

SNIP.

Jizique

paul71 wrote: »

That is true Sam but they have a FTA with Australia, they don't need to answer the phone. Any relationship with China for a country of the size of UK or Australia is one-sided.

China just slapped huge (>100%) tariffs on Aussie wines

ancapailldorcha

Posts deleted. Be civil please.