Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

jelem wrote: »

SNIP.

Final warning. Do not derail the thread and do not troll. Further instances will result in bans.

uptherebels

jelem wrote: »

another whom is mistaken as uk stated will not place border.
it is eu whom will force ireland to have border and impose tarrifs

The uk creating the conditions that force us/EU to create a border, is the same as placing one themselves

Capt'n Midnight

jelem wrote: »

uk will trade unrestricted with china ,ireland will have to abide by eu rules on trade with china.
(china is a larger market now than usa.)
a simple thing as this you fail to notice or point out.

China had banned UK beef for 20 years so any lowering of UK food standards might go down too well.

The UK has history with the Opium Wars and has recently offered several million passports to Hong Kong residents so let's hope that doesn't get mentioned.

China controls the steel factory that will make the rails for HS2 and could pull the rug out of funding UK nuclear power.

The Chinese own the company that makes the Taxi's. They and other marques are being made in Chinese factories too.

In 2019: UK exports to China were worth £30.7 billion; imports from China were £49.0 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of -£18.3 billion.

What can the UK sell to China that's worth twenty billion a year that the Chinese can't make or supply themselves or outsource to places like India or Vietnam or Laos ?

Hermy

jelem wrote: »

...ireland will have to abide by eu rules...

Imagine that - an EU member state abiding by EU rules.

What is the world coming to?

fash

jelem wrote: »

another whom is mistaken as uk stated will not place border.
it is eu whom will force ireland to have border and impose tarrifs

... And the UK Tory government is well known for its honesty, good faith and keeping its word.

fash

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That's not the real test.

The real test is whether the EU, in the process of agreeing a deal, will demand the clauses are removed immediately.

I don't think they will.

Maybe they'll surprise me.

Even if the UK were only threatening to renege on a clause setting out the shade of blue of the ink to be used when drafting future agreements, the EU would be forced to act to ensure it does not happen.
The reason is that the EU has third party relationships to consider. Accepting UK blackmail on this without an appropriate response would be an invitation to everyone else in the world reneging on deals with the EU. That isn't happening.

fash

.
This i think is a good point and is pessimistic in the current context. Given the nature of Brexiters, the fact that their schtick is "always be dissatisfied, always further right than thou" etc - even if the EU conceded to the UK in any way, internally the UK will be under pressure to push against any deal made - to start a fight with the EU. Points strongly to no deal until the Brexiters are discredited and kicked out of office.

Mr.Wemmick

fash wrote: »

.
This i think is a good point and is pessimistic in the current context. Given the nature of Brexiters, the fact that their schtick is "always be dissatisfied, always further right than thou" etc - even if the EU conceded to the UK in any way, internally the UK will be under pressure to push against any deal made - to start a fight with the EU. Points strongly to no deal until the Brexiters are discredited and kicked out of office.

This. Just this.

Sums it up perfectly. There is no way out of this mess for the UK and the bulk of the population now realise brexit is the biggest blunder in history.

The UK and its backward thinking elite rulers need to sort themselves out. This is an internal UK fight (wasn't it always?). Nothing whatsoever to do with the EU, and the EU would be wise to not get dragged into the middle of it at every turn.

Professor Moriarty

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

This. Just this.

Sums it up perfectly. There is no way out of this mess for the UK and the bulk of the population now realise brexit is the biggest blunder in history.

The UK and its backward thinking elite rulers need to sort themselves out. This is an internal UK fight (wasn't it always?). Nothing whatsoever to do with the EU, and the EU would be wise to not get dragged into the middle of it at every turn.

Yet there is a persistent 42%+ who still believe that Britain should leave either way. And they will vote Tory so that's the Tories safe because Brexit splits the Labour vote and the Lib Dems take a sizable slice of the anti-Tory vote

It might be an internal fight but the Irish border and the GFA drags us into it. Looking forward to Johnson sorting it out though. To quote his hero Churchill, it is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.

paul71

Jizique wrote: »

China just slapped huge (>100%) tariffs on Aussie wines

Exactly and nothing Australia can do about it, as I said Australia is a Chinese mineral mine now. It is a one sided relationship and the UK will not be treated any better.

Professor Moriarty

paul71 wrote: »

Exactly and nothing Australia can do about it, as I said Australia is a Chinese mineral mine now. It is a one sided relationship and the UK will not be treated any better.

No. It started as a row about China being blamed for Covid-19. But it is also about China believing that Australia is unfairly dumping exports into China. 37% of Australian wine goes to went to China. And China has a FTA with Australia. At one stage recently, there were 60 Australian cargo ships full of coal anchored of the Chinese coast as China wouldn't allow them to dock. If I were the UK today, I would be saying hmmm...

CelticRambler

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

At one stage recently, there were 60 Australian cargo ships full of coal anchored of the Chinese coast as China wouldn't allow them to dock. If I were the UK today, I would be saying hmmm...

Instead of which, the UK is sending a shiny new aircraft carrier to the South China Sea.

Nothing says "lets have friendly chat about trade" like parking an aircraft carrier outside the other guy's door.

steddyeddy

Every Brexit related headline seems to be "last minute deal", "major differences" or "last chance". Does anyone ever wish that they'd just put their money where their mouth is and leave, experience the economic devastation and then come back and negotiate properly? I mean all this talk of no deal seems to imply that that's the end of negotiations but it really wouldn't be. They'd be straight back the next day until they get a deal that won't destroy their country.

Sam Russell

CelticRambler wrote: »

Instead of which, the UK is sending a shiny new aircraft carrier to the South China Sea.

Nothing says "lets have friendly chat about trade" like parking an aircraft carrier outside the other guy's door.

Particularly when the UK aircraft carrier is full of US marines manning US fighter aircraft. It is supported by a flotilla of US frigates, supply ships etc.

Professor Moriarty

CelticRambler wrote: »

Instead of which, the UK is sending a shiny new aircraft carrier to the South China Sea.

Nothing says "lets have friendly chat about trade" like parking an aircraft carrier outside the other guy's door.

Watch as the US re-establishes good relations with China and the EU. The UK will be very isolated. Their stance over Hong Kong has blown away any goodwill they had with China. The Biden administration will focus on the EU not the UK. And their arrogant deceit over the past four years won't be forgotten when they try to strike up a new deal with the EU. They shat themselves in 2016 and refused to leave the room. Now they're leaving but the stink remains.

steddyeddy

CelticRambler wrote: »

Instead of which, the UK is sending a shiny new aircraft carrier to the South China Sea.

Nothing says "lets have friendly chat about trade" like parking an aircraft carrier outside the other guy's door.

The UK would be destroyed in a conflict with China.

trellheim

UK Environment secretary says the contentions IMB clauses are going back in tomorrow. EU Parl have these as a blocker and it will immediately scupper any deal if Commons does so.

if thats the case any deal has to happen before tomorrow morning

J Mysterio

Quite unbelievable how brazen all this is. The cronyism and corruption is rampant. Brexiteers think the Tories care about them and the UK, but all they care about is further enriching themselves, and their chums!

Chumocracy: Jacob Rees-Mogg’s Business Partner Appointed to Senior Trade Role

Byline Times wrote:

A business partner of Jacob Rees-Mogg, who is also a former vice-chair of the Conservative Party, has been appointed to a senior role at the Department for International Trade (DIT), Byline Times can reveal. He was appointed to the role along with former Conservative MP and Vote Leave founding director Douglas Carswell.

International Trade Secretary Liz Truss yesterday announced that Dominic Johnson, CEO of Somerset Capital Management, will be joining the DIT non-executive board, and will chair the Audit and Risk Assurance Committee.

Johnson co-founded Somerset Capital Management with Rees-Mogg in 2007, although the latter stepped back from his investment manager role at the firm in 2019 when he was appointed as Leader of the House of Commons by Boris Johnson.

Somerset Capital Management is an investment firm, specialising in emerging markets, that reportedly controls £7 billion in assets. The company, established with the financial support of pro-Brexit hedge fund manager Crispin Odey, is managed via the tax havens of Singapore and the Cayman Islands, according to the Guardian. Rees-Mogg still boasts a 14% stake in the company, held in a blind trust.

peter kern

paul71 wrote: »

Exactly and nothing Australia can do about it, as I said Australia is a Chinese mineral mine now. It is a one sided relationship and the UK will not be treated any better.

which is the biggest problem of brexit it hurts the uk and the eu in their dealings with china, which is becoming more and more agressive.

An Claidheamh

jelem wrote: »

another whom is mistaken as uk stated will not place border.
it is eu whom will force ireland to have border and impose tarrifs

Who would we be imposing tariffs on?

And why aren’t Britain controlling their borders, maybe they want more immigrants to come to Britain through Ireland, fair enough, we can oblige them if that is the case

nc6000

I had a laugh there watching Sky News covering Lord Frost arriving in Brussels. He was getting into a Jaguar to be driven away from the train station. I was wondering if that's the EU providing the Jag to keep them happy or if the UK are using their own.

ancapailldorcha

Below standard posts removed. No more linkdumps and one-liners please.

Professor Moriarty

nc6000 wrote: »

I had a laugh there watching Sky News covering Lord Frost arriving in Brussels. He was getting into a Jaguar to be driven away from the train station. I was wondering if that's the EU providing the Jag to keep them happy or if the UK are using their own.

Ironically, Jaguar is owned by TATA Motors. Which is Indian. So, technically, he drove off in an Indian car.

Leroy42

If Johnson is committed to reinserted the clauses into the IM, I wonder what the conversation between Johnson and VdL was about?

Surely her 1st question was whether he intended to continue down the path of reneging on the WA? No possibility of a further deal in that case

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

If Johnson is committed to reinserted the clauses into the IM, I wonder what the conversation between Johnson and VdL was about?

Surely her 1st question was whether he intended to continue down the path of reneging on the WA? No possibility of a further deal in that case

He would lie to her and tell her he wanted a deal and is committed to getting a deal. The man is a serial liar and lied straight to that father in hospital about no press being at there when it was observably untrue. Do you think he will not lie to VDL about a deal when he has been doing it to others for years?

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Ironically, Jaguar is owned by TATA Motors. Which is Indian. So, technically, he drove off in an Indian car.

Technically it could have been one made in the Changshu factory, China but that would be performing dialysis.

RobMc59

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Ironically, Jaguar is owned by TATA Motors. Which is Indian. So, technically, he drove off in an Indian car.

It probably ranks alongside Rolls Royce being owned by BMW or Guinness owned by British Diageo.

Brussels Sprout

So are Frost and Barnier just going to be twiddling their thumbs and going through the motions today since they likely know exactly what the sticking points are but do not have the power to overcome them?

Alternatively, after the call between BJ and UvdL last night they may have briefed their respective negotiators and authorised them to take new positions on the various sticking points and today will see some real progress.

I suspect it will be the former.

trellheim

So are Frost and Barnier just going to be twiddling their thumbs and going through the motions today since they likely know exactly what the sticking points are but do not have the power to overcome them?

Alternatively, after the call between BJ and UvdL last night they may have briefed their respective negotiators and authorised them to take new positions on the various sticking points and today will see some real progress.

I suspect it will be the former.

If the principals have loosened their collars a little then Barnier and Frost will have their lines to see if things are possible. Thats why they've been sent back into the tunnel. As I mentioned above it more or less has to be the next 24 hours.

If you ask me the EU will give in on fish, the LPF and Governance are far more important plus they will need IM and Treasury bill have all notwithstandings pulled . They cant give in on Governance given the messing on IM bill.

CelticRambler

Don't know if it's just because it's a slow news day, but French radio has had the Brexit-latest as one of its top stories today. For context, I think this is the first time in well over a month that I've heard any reference to the talks on our news. Le Figaro has it too, but only as a minor item wayyyyyyyyyyy down the webpage. :pac: