Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

paul71

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

So are Frost and Barnier just going to be twiddling their thumbs and going through the motions today since they likely know exactly what the sticking points are but do not have the power to overcome them?

Alternatively, after the call between BJ and UvdL last night they may have briefed their respective negotiators and authorised them to take new positions on the various sticking points and today will see some real progress.

I suspect it will be the former.

There is a danger even there if UvdL has given Barnier leeway. VudL is not the final decision maker, the heads of states of the EU are.

fash

trellheim wrote: »

If the principals have loosened their collars a little then Barnier and Frost will have their lines to see if things are possible. Thats why they've been sent back into the tunnel. As I mentioned above it more or less has to be the next 24 hours.

If you ask me the EU will give in on fish, the LPF and Governance are far more important plus they will need IM and Treasury bill have all notwithstandings pulled . They cant give in on Governance given the messing on IM bill.

VDL isn't the principal though- she is as constrained as Barnier - if Johnson wanted EU movement, he would have had to have been working/reassuring various EU member states.

Nody

I'm starting to wonder if the no deal brexit may not be the Tory ploy here. This is going down the rabbit hole but hear me out. Boris goes for no brexit deal to the anthem of God save the Queen as a true blue blooded nobility that he is. Couple of weeks of chaos, murmuring of "things will settle down in a few weeks just wait and see" to ensure the disaster capitalists can cash in on the pound dropping like my jokes on a birthday party as well as companies being run out of business simply because they can't get the materials they need etc. Wait two to three months and then agree BRINO, pounds suddenly going up like a Musk rocket and the distraught businesses bought can suddenly start trading again and valuation shoots up. Boris announces he's "listened to the farmers, fishers (who could not sell their fish), companies and the people and have accepted an improved deal from the EU were they will pay us £100 million a year for access to our waters rather than UK paying the EU". Disaster capitalists cash in again as they got the money on the pound crashing, then going up and can sell off the companies, assets etc. they bought for pennies on the pound in distressed sales and ride off into the sunset. Boris then retires "having delivered Brexit" so he can get a salary he can survive on (because a PM pay of 150k is not enough) and the cabinet can fight out among themselves who should replace him. All relevant parties are happy (i.e. Tories and their donors).

paul71

Nody wrote: »

I'm starting to wonder if the no deal brexit may not be the Tory ploy here. This is going down the rabbit hole but hear me out. Boris goes for no brexit deal to the anthem of God save the Queen as a true blue blooded nobility that he is. Couple of weeks of chaos, murmuring of "things will settle down in a few weeks just wait and see" to ensure the disaster capitalists can cash in on the pound dropping like my jokes on a birthday party as well as companies being run out of business simply because they can't get the materials they need etc. Wait two to three months and then agree BRINO, pounds suddenly going up like a Musk rocket and the distraught businesses bought can suddenly start trading again and valuation shoots up. Boris announces he's "listened to the farmers, fishers (who could not sell their fish), companies and the people and have accepted an improved deal from the EU were they will pay us £100 million a year for access to our waters rather than UK paying the EU". Disaster capitalists cash in again as they got the money on the pound crashing, then going up and can sell off the companies, assets etc. they bought for pennies on the pound in distressed sales and ride off into the sunset. Boris then retires "having delivered Brexit" so he can get a salary he can survive on (because a PM pay of 150k is not enough) and the cabinet can fight out among themselves who should replace him. All relevant parties are happy (i.e. Tories and their donors).

Possible it has occurred to them, however if a no deal happens it is more likely the EU will move on and when Boris knocks on the door in a few months he could be told, "sorry we have 6 other negotiations ongoing, come back to us in 4 years, old chap".

Enzokk

fash wrote: »

VDL isn't the principal though- she is as constrained as Barnier - if Johnson wanted EU movement, he would have had to have been working/reassuring various EU member states.

And it is most likely that if he did check with individual member states he would have been told Barnier has the mandate and to check with him on what the EU position is.

CelticRambler

Nody wrote: »

Couple of weeks of chaos, murmuring of "things will settle down in a few weeks just wait and see" to ensure the disaster capitalists can cash in on the pound dropping like my jokes on a birthday party as well as companies being run out of business simply because they can't get the materials they need etc. Wait two to three months and then agree BRINO, pounds suddenly going up like a Musk rocket and the distraught businesses bought can suddenly start trading again and valuation shoots up.

Hmm. I can see that working in respect of the currency markets, but it'll take a lot longer for businesses to fail, in the first instance, and then to rebound. Remember that many of the businesses most likely to fail are private, independent companies run by True Brexit Believers. They won't give up because of a "few weeks" chaos. And the bigger companies, if they thing a no-deal Brexit is likely - and likely to damage them - will have shifted what's most valuable out of the UK before disposing of whatever they don't want/can't move (i.e. staff and buildings). It's going to take many months for all of this to play out - well beyond Johnson's expected lifetime as on-going prime minister.

trellheim

VdL is Barnier's boss . European Council tasked the Commission to do the negotiation hence VdL would refer back if she saw the need.

paul71

fash wrote: »

VDL isn't the principal though- she is as constrained as Barnier - if Johnson wanted EU movement, he would have had to have been working/reassuring various EU member states.

Ironic isn't it, UK brexiteers confronted with the reality of sovereignty of member states in the EU that they claimed did not exist.

Paragraphs, people, please..

Strazdas

trellheim wrote: »

VdL is Barnier's boss . European Council tasked the Commission to do the negotiation hence VdL would refer back if she saw the need.

But his negotiating strategy is defined / approved by the Council (Merkel, Macron etc).

VdL couldn't give him the nod to start making concessions.

CrabRevolution

paul71 wrote: »

Ironic isn't it, UK brexiteers confronted with the reality of sovereignty of member states in the EU that they claimed did not exist.

Whenever the talks have stalled in the past year, the Brexiters produce the "Fear not, Johnson is going to ring around the leaders of EU states and get it going again". The pretext of these calls is an idea popular among brexiters; that EU states care as little about the EU as the UK does, and all it takes is for Johnson to ring them up and say "Come on, we both know this EU stuff is nonsense and we all want a deal so tell Barnier to cop on". Then when talks resume the UK press claim that it was Johnson's intervention that brought the EU leaders to their senses and saved the day.

But I'm struggling to see, now that it's the EU keen to compromise and the states are standing up against it, how the latest Johnson calls are even supposed to work in theory. Whatever about ringing EU leaders to talk about the EU "behind their back", is he going to ring the leaders of the various states and say "come on, we both know you're wrong, so give in to our demands"?

Even then, considering their mantra has been "Absolute sovereignty at any cost", why are they not celebrating the fact several EU states are exercising their sovereignty?

Strazdas

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Whenever the talks have stalled in the past year, the Brexiters produce the "Fear not, Johnson is going to ring around the leaders of EU states and get it going again". The pretext of these calls is an idea popular among brexiters; that EU states care as little about the EU as the UK does, and all it takes is for Johnson to ring them up and say "Come on, we both know this EU stuff is nonsense and we all want a deal so tell Barnier to cop on". Then when talks resume the UK press claim that it was Johnson's intervention that brought the EU leaders to their senses and saved the day.

But I'm struggling to see, now that it's the EU keen to compromise and the states are standing up against it, how the latest Johnson calls are even supposed to work in theory. Whatever about ringing EU leaders to talk about the EU "behind their back", is he going to ring the leaders of the various states and say "come on, we both know you're wrong, so give in to our demands"?

Even then, considering their mantra has been "Absolute sovereignty at any cost", why are they not celebrating the fact several EU states are exercising their sovereignty?

They won't admit it publicly, but British sovereignty is the only thing that matters. They don't believe in "sovereignty" as a principle, only in British sovereignty (it's rooted in xenophobia....a way of getting one over on the 'foreigners').

CelticRambler

paul71 wrote: »

Possible it has occurred to them, however if a no deal happens it is more likely the EU will move on and when Boris knocks on the door in a few months he could be told, "sorry we have 6 other negotiations ongoing, come back to us in 4 years, old chap".

No, the EU won't react like that.

First of all, they have more than enough teams to run any number of simultaneous negotiations, and it makes no sense to queue one up behind another as each deal will require a different investment of time and effort, not to mention the potential requirement to be put to a popular vote in constituencies on both sides of the discussion.

And secondly, the EU likes doing trade deals with other markets - single countries or trading blocs, it makes no difference: it will suit them just fine to add another one to those already signed. That this country happens to be so geographically close will be a bonus for German carmakers, French wine exporters, Spanish veg growers ... :rolleyes:

So *IF* Johnson came back, cap in hand, and asked to (re)open negotiations, he would be invited into a board room and asked to explain what he wanted and why.

Only when he's done that will the EU smile condescendingly and say "that's all very well, but ..." and proceed to lay out a detailed list of problems that the UK's successive administrations have caused in the past, and problems that the UK's current administration continues to cause in the present. The meeting will be wound up with a very polite invitation to get back in touch with detailed proposals as to how those problems might be addressed prior to starting talks about trade.

BorneTobyWilde

Boris has Trump in his ear, '' walk away Boris, and then they'll be the ones to give in to demands''
that's what is going on.
Hope EU just walk away themselves, UK is fcked without a deal. EU is big enough to deal with it .

murphaph

Can one imagine how acrimonious the Scottish-English discussions will be when Scotland secedes?!

All these arguments over a few fish will be nothing compared to the arguments over where the boundaries between the new Scottish and rUK EEZs should be! There's proven and unproven oil reserves involved.

trellheim

Anyone else thinking its gonna blow , the EU wont be the ones to walk away ...

1430 tomorrow IMB bill amendments go back on in the Commons

see https://calendar.parliament.uk/calendar/Commons/All/2020/12/7/Daily

if they are still there when the Minister gets to his feet any deal is a gonner, so we've got till then IMHO

trellheim

Fishing looks sorted

A major breakthrough has been made in the Brexit negotiations on the rights of European fleets to fish in UK waters, EU sources said last night, leaving a Franco-German demand that Britain follow EU laws as the final hurdle to a historic trade and security deal.

Sources in Brussels said the two sides had all but finalised terms on the level of access for EU boats to seas within the UK’s 200-mile exclusive economic zone, with a transition period for phasing in changes understood to be between five and seven years.

The talks are now going to the wire on the so-called “ratchet clause” under which the UK government would have to follow EU environmental, social and labour standards as they develop over time or face tariffs on British exports.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/06/major-breakthrough-on-fishing-rights-brings-brexit-deal-closer?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Patser

Currency markets were closed when the 'Pause' announcement was made on Friday evening. They've just reopened in Asia, Sterling down .6 of a cent already

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR

Enzokk

And look at that, we seem to be heading to a deal,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1335689709578760199?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1335689712649035779?s=20

Hope the UK has read and understood the deal. I think I understand why Labour would vote for this deal. I suspect there will be blowback from some ERG MP's once the details are known and Johnson will need Labour votes. Labour would then have to decide between a crap deal or no-deal, and you take the crap deal all the way.

Patser

Or Labour abstain, so as to keep their fingerprints off any deal and leave Johnson responsible for either result

trellheim

Peston saying fish is not sorted so all still up in the air

J Mysterio

UK Government leak on reasonable worst case scenario for Brexit.

This is not good... Nor is it surprising.

1. 60-80% drop in availability of medicines and medical products 2 Protests and counter-protests will absorb significant police resources

2. Protests and counter-protests will absorb significant police resources

3. Clashes between UK and EU fishing vessels and a significant increase in illegal fishing

4. Extra demand on maritime agencies will put UK security ar risk

5. Reduced availability of food, especially fresh food. Critical supply dependencies in food supply chains will be broken

6. Low income groups and regions will be disproportionately affected by food and fuel shortages / cost increases

7. Border issues will lead to disruption of water, energy, food and fuel services, and lead to some vital chemical suppliers reducing operations or closing

8. Border delays will lead to local fuel shortages

9. Reduced access to veterinary medicine will affect our ability to prevent outbreaks of animal disease, directly impacting human health

10. 40-70% of trucks will not be ready for border controls, leading to 2-day queues at ports

11. Loss of access to international data will cause a reduced ability to tackle crime and terrorism

12. Around 1 in 20 local authorities will financially collapse as a result of higher demand and lower income caused by Brexit transition - leading to major social services crisis

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-12-06/the-12-reasonable-worst-case-outcomes-if-brexit-talks-collapse

Strazdas

trellheim wrote: »

Peston saying fish is not sorted so all still up in the air

Problem for the Brexiteers is that if they make concessions, they are somehow going to have to conceal from the disciples back home that they have made concessions. This is very tricky for them....they have no control over what EU sources leak.

Capt'n Midnight

murphaph wrote: »

Can one imagine how acrimonious the Scottish-English discussions will be when Scotland secedes?!

All these arguments over a few fish will be nothing compared to the arguments over where the boundaries between the new Scottish and rUK EEZs should be! There's proven and unproven oil reserves involved.

FUD. Fear Uncertainty Doubt.

This was done and dusted a while back.




http://marine.gov.scot/information/exclusive-economic-zone-eez-order-2013-scottish-zone-renewable-energy-zone-rez-and-gas

Article 2 of the Exclusive Economic Zone Order 2013 declares the area of the United Kingdom EEZ. The Order came into force on 31 March 2014. The layer shows the EEZ around Scotland: Scotland being defined under the terms of the Scotland Act 1998.

https://marinescotland.atkinsgeospatial.com/nmpi/default.aspx?layers=416

murphaph

The London government has repudiated an international treaty it signed less than a year ago. I wouldn't be so sure they'll abide by a national agreement from several years ago. You couldn't trust them as far as you could throw them I'm afraid.

Mr.Nice Guy

murphaph wrote: »

The London government has repudiated an international treaty it signed less than a year ago. I wouldn't be so sure they'll abide by a national agreement from several years ago. You couldn't trust them as far as you could throw them I'm afraid.

This is what I'm wondering regards any potential deal agreed. Can we believe they will implement what they sign up for? If the ERG kick up a stink, can we be sure there won't be some more breaking of international law in 'specific and limited' ways to keep them quiet?

A Dub in Glasgo

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

FUD. Fear Uncertainty Doubt.

This was done and dusted a while back.




http://marine.gov.scot/information/exclusive-economic-zone-eez-order-2013-scottish-zone-renewable-energy-zone-rez-and-gas

https://marinescotland.atkinsgeospatial.com/nmpi/default.aspx?layers=416

Which is the vast majority of the EEZ that seems to be the stumbling block for the UK/EU deal

The recent announcement from the Tories that they will have a renewable revolution also include Scotland providing most of that

An Ciarraioch

Tony Connelly update suggests we're back to square one on all three issues:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1335718548921085963.html

A Dub in Glasgo

It is clear over the last year that this group of Tories only want No Deal and want to project that onto anyone else but themselves

screamer

its a lost cause at this stage,we should be talking about what impact this will have on our supply chains and forget about the UK now. Cut them lose , sink or swim that's now their problem to navigate.