Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tony Connelly update suggests we're back to square one on all three issues:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1335718548921085963.html

Oddly enough, The Telegraph's main headline says that the EU has backed down over fishing. Doctors differ...

trellheim

Still to play for till 1430 tomorrow lads and even then it could go farther but IMB clauses going back in will push hard

eire4

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tony Connelly update suggests we're back to square one on all three issues:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1335718548921085963.html

When I read the Taoiseach saying getting a deal is 50-50 then IMHO that means the odds are much worse then that and no deal seems the more likely option.

Shelga

So do people think we’ll know one way or another whether a deal will be agreed, by 14:30 tomorrow?

Peregrinus

Shelga wrote: »

So do people think we’ll know one way or another whether a deal will be agreed, by 14:30 tomorrow?

I hear that it will be agreed unless, perchance, it isn't because the parties cannot reach agreement.

Although there is a contrary view that it won't be agreed, unless one or both sides are willing to compromise.

Peregrinus

trellheim wrote: »

VdL is Barnier's boss . European Council tasked the Commission to do the negotiation hence VdL would refer back if she saw the need.

Yeah, but two problems here.

First, what VdL needs to refer back to is the European Council. While that's made up of Member States' ministers, it's the Ministers acting collectively, not individually. So while VdL can talk to the German Chancellor or the Dutch PM or the French President or whoever, to raise the issue of a shift in the EU position and start the ball rolling on that, actually shifting the EU position requires concerted action by the Council which, logistically, is a big deal. I really don't see it happening in the time needed to have a deal ready to roll by 1 January.

And the other problems is that, even if VdL does refer back to Member States/the Council, that's VdL talking to them, not Johnson. Johnson would stil be dealing with decision-makers on the other side through an intermediary, and not one of his choosing, which isn't an ideal way of cutting through the knot of an impasse in the negotiations.

Peregrinus

Strazdas wrote: »

Problem for the Brexiteers is that if they make concessions, they are somehow going to have to conceal from the disciples back home that they have made concessions. This is very tricky for them....they have no control over what EU sources leak.

I don't think that's a problem. Most brexiters seem either (a) to be very credulous, or (b) to have no self-respect. If Johnson tells them that the EU has caved and the deal is a famous victory for UK sovereignty they will either believe that or pretend to believe that. That's what they did when he concluded the Withdrawal Agreement, remember.

Peregrinus

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

This is what I'm wondering regards any potential deal agreed. Can we believe they will implement what they sign up for? If the ERG kick up a stink, can we be sure there won't be some more breaking of international law in 'specific and limited' ways to keep them quiet?

It's precisely this consideration which leads the EU to insist on tough governance/enforcement measures being included in the deal. If the UK turns around and violates the FTA as it has violated the WA, we doesn't want to be in the position of bleating about it; we want to have a right under the FTA to impose tough, effective measures which will put manners on the UK.

That's not ideal, frankly. We'd much rather make a deal that we think the other side finds beneficial and will respect than a deal which they can only be held to with the threat of a big stick. In general, if we thought we were actually going to have to use the enforcement measures contained in a deal, we wouldn't make the deal in the first place.

But we are where we are; no matter what's in a deal with the UK there can be no confidence that the UK under the present junta will respect the deal either because they think it's a good deal or because they feel a moral or political obligation to respect the deals their country makes. So the choice facing the EU is a limited one; either make a deal with the UK containing robust enforcement mechanisms that we may have to invoke, or don't make a deal with the UK. And we do want a deal.

kub

Tony Connelly was on Morning Ireland just before 9am, his second time on it this morning.

He reported that Barnier is very concerned with the way talks are going and that there had been no progress at all yesterday, there are still massive gaps between both parties.

54and56

Patser wrote: »

Or Labour abstain, so as to keep their fingerprints off any deal and leave Johnson responsible for either result

This.

Labour can't be seen to be blocking Brexit any more, that ship has sailed but they equally can't endorse the deal BoJo will do so providing BoJo has more MP's for than against the deal it'll get through the HoC but it won't have the endorsement of the majority of MP's in the HoC, it'll be just Tory MP's who vote for it.

There's bound to be a good few Spartan Tory MP types who won't vote for it so they can retain their true Brexit fundamentalist status and wear it as a badge of honour for the rest of their political career.

Enzokk

So it seems like the update by Barnier this morning was downbeat,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1335869523686199296?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1335870358130397186?s=20

I still don't know what the plan is, which makes me think there is no plan from the UK which is even scarier. If they were okay with no-deal then we should have known this by now and been preparing. But they are continuing to talk but the progress is at a standstill. I guess we will know today what will happen. If they bring back the IM bill with those offending clauses then I think it will be time for the EU to stop the talks. Sure they can talk along the back channels, but if the UK is prepared to break the WA still this late it means they don't want a deal.

Still makes sense that a government which is chosen on loyalty has no clue about how to run a country.

54and56

Peregrinus wrote: »

Yeah, but two problems here.

First, what VdL needs to refer back to is the European Council. While that's made up of Member States' ministers, it's the Ministers acting collectively, not individually. So while VdL can talk to the German Chancellor or the Dutch PM or the French President or whoever, to raise the issue of a shift in the EU position and start the ball rolling on that, actually shifting the EU position requires concerted action by the Council which, logistically, is a big deal. I really don't see it happening in the time needed to have a deal ready to roll by 1 January.

And the other problems is that, even if VdL does refer back to Member States/the Council, that's VdL talking to them, not Johnson. Johnson would stil be dealing with decision-makers on the other side through an intermediary, and not one of his choosing, which isn't an ideal way of cutting through the knot of an impasse in the negotiations.

VdL's role is to know where each head of state is at in relation to the issues which need to be resolved and to understand how much they are prepared to move and what they need in return to agree to that move. If she's doing her job properly she can manoeuvre BoJo to a point where she knows she can get the heads of state of all 27 to accept the deal but that will only be possible if BoJo agrees to LPF and an exercisable ratchet if (when) the UK diverge from the agreed state subsidy standards etc as they have already done with the WA.

A deal which would allow the UK to diverge and continue to have tariff free access to the single market without any consequences for the UK would be suicidal for the EU. If BoJo doesn't understand or refuses to accept that fundamental point because something something sovereignty there won't / can't be a deal.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

So it seems like the update by Barnier this morning was downbeat,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1335869523686199296?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1335870358130397186?s=20

I still don't know what the plan is, which makes me think there is no plan from the UK which is even scarier. If they were okay with no-deal then we should have known this by now and been preparing. But they are continuing to talk but the progress is at a standstill. I guess we will know today what will happen. If they bring back the IM bill with those offending clauses then I think it will be time for the EU to stop the talks. Sure they can talk along the back channels, but if the UK is prepared to break the WA still this late it means they don't want a deal.

Still makes sense that a government which is chosen on loyalty has no clue about how to run a country.

Sterling is tanking this morning which is further proof that the talks simply aren't working. It's becoming a game of chicken where both parties are hanging on until the other walks away. Soothing leaks from the EU about giving ground on fishing are designed to show the EU in a conciliatory light as the talks fragment. Johnson has painted himself into a corner as usual. He either folds or he walks away thus decimating their economy further. His ego will choose crashing the economy.

Hermy

Enzokk wrote: »

If they were okay with no-deal then we should have known this by now and been preparing.

How are we - Ireland and EU both - fixed for a no-deal situation?

In my very inexpert opinion it does seem like it's getting to the stage where M. Barnier ought to consider calling the UK's bluff, leaving the talks, and shutting the door firmly on the way out.

While No Deal is far from ideal [understatement, I'm sure] nonetheless it deprives the UK of the opportunity later on to change their mind on any terms and conditions they'd have otherwise signed up to.

trellheim

Here's the link to the House of Commons if folks want to watch later - 1430 onwards after defence questions

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/b9d83851-4ca0-43a3-bbdd-a4e94e38766e


This is where they will vote for the contentious bits of the IM bill ( the WA breaching ones) to go back in that the Lords took out

These are the amendments to go back in https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/58-01/0224/amend/ukim_day_ccla_1204.pdf

essentially two fingers to the Lords and the WA

screamer

Agreed, EU should walk at this stage and try to control and plan what they can. we've a few weeks left till the uk leave, and we should be doing what we can for ourselves. The UK have no intention of playing ball, essentially they want the exact deal theyve had as part of the EU without any of the concessions like fisheries/ immigration/ contributions to EU slush fund. Thats never and was never realistic, so leave them off, lets look after our own economies best we can without them.

trellheim

The UK have no intention of playing ball, essentially they want the exact deal theyve had as part of the EU without any of the concessions like fisheries/ immigration/ contributions to EU slush fund. Thats never and was never realistic, so leave them off, lets look after our own economies best we can without them.

It is a talisman for the UK that all good negotiation with the EU happens at the last moment. They are in their happy place here. For them, this is the only place they can extract meaningful concessions so therefore drag out as long as possible.

Patser

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Sterling is tanking this morning which is further proof that the talks simply aren't working. It's becoming a game of chicken where both parties are hanging on until the other walks away. Soothing leaks from the EU about giving ground on fishing are designed to show the EU in a conciliatory light as the talks fragment. Johnson has painted himself into a corner as usual. He either folds or he walks away thus decimating their economy further. His ego will choose crashing the economy.

Yep, has shot straight through the €1.10 barrier that it has hovered near occasionally but never really below for last 8 months, now close to €1.09

dogbert27

It's all those nasty Europeans fault not giving us everything we want! Do they not understand we are GREAT Britain?! :rolleyes:

Overall I feel sorry for those who wanted to remain and are stuck with this mess but also I want to see these Brexiteers get what they deserve, the cold hard slap of 21st century reality of where Great Britain actually is in the modern world.

Dymo

Are the UK proud of there current position at the moment in the talks, for years they have been hearing about the mighty EU and how much bigger they are but here they are threatening to walk away unless the EU compromises greatly and acting as a equal partner.

If I was looking on from a Brexitors point of view it would still look like they're winning and getting the upper hand against the evil EU. As it as been said before it's only when Joe Public realises what they are going to miss is when Brexit really starts.

ambro25

dogbert27 wrote: »

(...)

Overall I feel sorry for those who wanted to remain and are stuck with this mess but also I want to see these Brexiteers get what they deserve, the cold hard slap of 21st century reality of where Great Britain actually is in the modern world.

I just can't find that in myself anymore.

And that is an odd feeling.

Leroy42

Dymo wrote: »

Are the UK proud of there current position at the moment in the talks, for years they have been hearing about the mighty EU and how much bigger they are but here they are threatening to walk away unless the EU compromises greatly and acting as a equal partner.

If I was looking on from a Brexitors point of view it would still look like they're winning and getting the upper hand against the evil EU. As it as been said before it's only when Joe Public realises what they are going to miss is when Brexit really starts.

Yes, they have very successfully painted this entire mess as a meeting of two equals. In fact, in many cases, it is the EU that is almost begging the UK to come to the table and please get a deal as otherwise the EU is wrecked.

There are a very marked proportion of people in the Uk that think that walking away will only teach the EU who they are dealing with and the EU will come running back

opinionated3

I'm no expert on this but my gut feeling at the moment is that the Tories under Johnson's leadership don't really want a deal, this is all about making the big evil EU walk away from the talks because tough man Boris stood up to them. It's the normal working Joe/Josephine that's going to play the price for this, in dearer consumables and lost jobs at home. The EU will recover, but I think Britain is about to find out that the image of it being held as some sort of great power throughout the world is diminished. Already rumours doing the rounds this morning of rolls Royce outsourcing some of its R And D division of its civil aerospace sector to India. I believe that trend will continue if no deal is the final result of these talks

ancapailldorcha

ambro25 wrote: »

I just can't find that in myself anymore.

And that is an odd feeling.

I'm stupid enough to still continue living here and I'm exactly the same. They've given this the seal of approval enough times and yet will still find ways to blame someone else.

I'm glad that they turned their noses up at the extension earlier this year. At the time, I was appalled but they simply can't figure out what they want and what they'll settle for and it's not fair on the rest of Europe to keep this farce going.

Patser

opinionated3 wrote: »

I'm no expert on this but my gut feeling at the moment is that the Tories under Johnson's leadership don't really want a deal, this is all about making the big evil EU walk away from the talks because tough man Boris stood up to them. It's the normal working Joe/Josephine that's going to play the price for this, in dearer consumables and lost jobs at home. The EU will recover, but I think Britain is about to find out that the image of it being held as some sort of great power throughout the world is diminished. Already rumours doing the rounds this morning of rolls Royce outsourcing some of its R And D division of its civil aerospace sector to India. I believe that trend will continue if no deal is the final result of these talks

On a purely political basis - Johnson has 2 choices:

Do a deal, which means he has to sell it as great, fight with those within his party to get it through and take responsibility for all the negatives that Brexit will bring

Walk away, no deal - shore up base support of Tories, act strong, blame bullying EU for everything, deal with real world problems that this actually entails, civil unrest, job losses but gets to make more speeches

opinionated3

Barnier saying that Wednesday is the final day. No further talks after. Also saying there will be no deal if the British parliament passes the Internal markets bill. Biden is supportive of the EU.....

Patser

opinionated3 wrote: »

Barnier saying that Wednesday is the final day. No further talks after. Also saying there will be no deal if the British parliament passes the Internal markets bill. Biden is supportive of the EU.....

Here's Tony's update on above, lot more info in follow up tweets


https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1335917882245599236

Enzokk

Call that was supposed to happen this evening will now happen at 4pm Irish time between Johnson and Von Der Leyen.

https://twitter.com/DanielFerrie/status/1335918653343223808?s=20

Enzokk

James O'Brien had his show about Brexit this morning and you still have some, I will call them interesting, people phoning in to his show,

Caller wants 'our own elected idiots' making decisions not 'Luxembourg'

This classic LBC Brexit call ended up with James O'Brien being told the EU "will crumble" once the UK leaves the bloc.

There was another caller later as well along the same lines with the same idiotic statements that you hear Brexiters having made mainstream and the press repeating. How the EU laws are holding the UK back, but cannot name any of them, or how the EU stance on corporation tax is a reason to leave and citing our recent case with the EU as a reason.

Strazdas

opinionated3 wrote: »

I'm no expert on this but my gut feeling at the moment is that the Tories under Johnson's leadership don't really want a deal, this is all about making the big evil EU walk away from the talks because tough man Boris stood up to them. It's the normal working Joe/Josephine that's going to play the price for this, in dearer consumables and lost jobs at home. The EU will recover, but I think Britain is about to find out that the image of it being held as some sort of great power throughout the world is diminished. Already rumours doing the rounds this morning of rolls Royce outsourcing some of its R And D division of its civil aerospace sector to India. I believe that trend will continue if no deal is the final result of these talks

It seems to be heading that way. Collapse the talks and "it was all the horrible EU's fault".