Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

Enzokk wrote: »

I still don't know what the plan is, which makes me think there is no plan from the UK which is even scarier.

Was there ever? :pac:

I'm wondering if a decision has already been made behind the EU doors to let the FTA negotiations run aground and to concentrate on manoeuvring the UK into agreement for rigid compliance with the WA/NI Protocol from Jan 1st?

As far as the FTA goes, the skinnier the deal, the less important it is for the EU to get it all wrapped up by 31st December. Unilateral, time-limited exemptions can be put in place to facilitate the repatriation of EU goods, citizens and services from the UK and to limit the need to compensate continental businesses that might suffer more than Covid has already inflicted upon them.

The only real thorn in the EU side right now is the NI Protocol and whether it's going to be breached or respected. Allowing Johnson & Co. to believe that they're still on course to for a sovereignty-boosting FTA as long as they learn to be good boys and do their chores might, in fact, be a case of "smoke and mirrors" on the part of team Barnier, to ensure that the NI Protocol is plugged in, switched on and running smoothly before Dover-Calais gets shut down.

Infini

Honestly at this point it looks pretty certain of a No Deal at this point. The EU wont buckle they're prepared as we all are to take the hit if the UK really want's to play game's on this.

Honestly I think sadly at this point there has to be a no deal not because the UK deserves it as a whole but because they simply will no realize the cost or the sheer scale of the corruption in their own political system that brought this about and how their own lives were screwed up by ideologues, idiots, a broken political system and FPTP etc.

I will feel sorry for those in the UK who didnt vote for this, I'd just be annoyed at the regular Brexiteer supporter for being just thick and stupid and wanting to learn things the hard way, but I really hope these Tory bastards in charge who have made this happen will get their comeuppance someday, they're going to ruin alot of people's livelyhoods and plenty of them deserve to be thrown in jail for what they're doing.

ambro25

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm stupid enough to still continue living here and I'm exactly the same. They've given this the seal of approval enough times and yet will still find ways to blame someone else.

I'm glad that they turned their noses up at the extension earlier this year. At the time, I was appalled but they simply can't figure out what they want and what they'll settle for and it's not fair on the rest of Europe to keep this farce going.

I'm actually not (glad that they skipped on an n-th extension), even though I have consistently argued and posted in these Brexit threads, for years now, that the UK would Brexit without a deal, and that they 'needed' to go through with it and live it at the coalface to understand what they were missing. Because Covid was rather the 2020 curveball, after 4 years of Brexit (mis)management.

Yet, to be clear, I don't find any pity for remainers caught in it anymore, out of apathy and boredom with Brexit, rather than out of anger or vindictiveness. Whatever pity I still harbour over Brexit for anyone in the UK, is for those who never had a say in it, nor any chance to do something about it. EU27inUK were such, Brit remainers were not, and if that's a consequence of Tories (or divisive politics) succeeding in othering them from me, well so be it.

They had over 4 years to find their political courage and do something. They can keep looking, and maybe the grass diet will have a benefical effect on their eyesight.

Meanwhile, Covid, nationalists and rule of law in the East, rekindling US relations, Iran (...)

Infini

CelticRambler wrote: »

Was there ever? :pac:

The only real thorn in the EU side right now is the NI Protocol and whether it's going to be breached or respected. Allowing Johnson & Co. to believe that they're still on course to for a sovereignty-boosting FTA as long as they learn to be good boys and do their chores might, in fact, be a case of "smoke and mirrors" on the part of team Barnier, to ensure that the NI Protocol is plugged in, switched on and running smoothly before Dover-Calais gets shut down.

Honestly in term's of NI if they refuse to respect this then we still have some options. First being that Brexit is likely to wreck the entire economy there and force a harder trade barrier with the rest of the island for a few years. If that happens I would not be surprised if both the Border Communities Against Brexit movement up there along with Sinn Fein morph thing's into a reunification movement to get Northern Ireland out of that situation and with the economy in the toilet all because of Tory incompetence it might be what shifts the side in a solid move towards it. Wouldn't be surprised if our own parties down here are already making plans and movements towards this event.

We'll also have Biden in the White House as well as alot of pull in the EU about what the British have done and could easily put London under alot of pressure in certain area's if the Tories are intent on trying to cause as much trouble as possible.

opinionated3

Enzokk wrote: »

James O'Brien had his show about Brexit this morning and you still have some, I will call them interesting, people phoning in to his show,

Caller wants 'our own elected idiots' making decisions not 'Luxembourg'



There was another caller later as well along the same lines with the same idiotic statements that you hear Brexiters having made mainstream and the press repeating. How the EU laws are holding the UK back, but cannot name any of them, or how the EU stance on corporation tax is a reason to leave and citing our recent case with the EU as a reason.

Actually had a little chuckle to myself when I heard him blame Luxembourg ! But on a serious note, that caller is one of tens of thousands who believe the grass is not just greener, but it's THEIR shade of green on the other side .......

ancapailldorcha

While obviously not from an unbiased source, here's a telling clip of James Cleverly addressing the oven-ready deal canard that was thrown around this time last year:

https://twitter.com/labourpress/status/1335907843476754437

As the link from the Times shared yesterday indicates, it does seem like an unending culture war with the EU seems to be the Conservatives' long term goal.

Enzokk

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

While obviously not from an unbiased source, here's a telling clip of James Cleverly addressing the oven-ready deal canard that was thrown around this time last year:

https://twitter.com/labourpress/status/1335907843476754437

As the link from the Times shared yesterday indicates, it does seem like an unending culture war with the EU seems to be the Conservatives' long term goal.

The oven-ready deal that they have to break now? She should have asked him if it was oven-ready why have the IM bill that overrides said deal.

Shelga

If it is no deal, the 600 pages of text they've already agreed about everything that isn't fish or LPF goes straight into the bin? :(What a colossal waste of everyone's time. It's crazy how much diplomatic energy has gone into trying to work all this out over the last 4 years. Brexiters just take all that for granted. I'm sure all of the EU people involved in these discussions didn't enter their careers to spend years of their lives doing this stuff, and now it might just all have been for nothing anyway.

An Ciarraioch

Frost now demanding that British fishing boats would have to be wholly owned by Britons, rather than licensing them to foreign owners, as happens at present:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/07/michel-barnier-says-brexit-talks-will-not-go-beyond-wednesday

ancapailldorcha

Enzokk wrote: »

The oven-ready deal that they have to break now? She should have asked him if it was oven-ready why have the IM bill that overrides said deal.

You can tell from his tone that he would have responded in his typical, abrasive manner. Cleverly is a man I would consider quite unworthy of respect even for a Conservative MP. He's probably have accused her of lying or something equally tedious.

He was involved in a car accident where he admitted liability and then decided to change his mind according to the person he hit. He was also using his mobile phone while driving:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/james-cleverly-car-crash-tory-mp-braintree-essex-a9072686.html

Strazdas

Shelga wrote: »

If it is no deal, the 600 pages of text they've already agreed about everything that isn't fish or LPF goes straight into the bin? :(What a colossal waste of everyone's time. It's crazy how much diplomatic energy has gone into trying to work all this out over the last 4 years. Brexiters just take all that for granted. I'm sure all of the EU people involved in these discussions didn't enter their careers to spend years of their lives doing this stuff, and now it might just all have been for nothing anyway.

In theory, there would be nothing to stop the trade talks reopening next year and the 600 page document coming back into play again. Some analysts have suggested though there would be a very bad atmosphere, so who knows what would happen in that case.

Winters

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Frost now demanding that British fishing boats would have to be wholly owned by Britons, rather than licensing them to foreign owners, as happens at present:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/07/michel-barnier-says-brexit-talks-will-not-go-beyond-wednesday

Am i correct in saying the UK could have done than while they were an EU member? I think another EU member has that in affect although it may be an EFTA member im thinking of.

Hurrache

dogbert27 wrote: »

It's all those nasty Europeans fault not giving us everything we want! Do they not understand we are GREAT Britain?! :rolleyes:

How prescient of you.
Not quite sure what the ground is that he claims they must stand on, it's almost as if they nearly fell into a deal accidentally and are now quickly trying to backpedal given Tory statements over the last 48 hours and the upcoming HoC vote.

https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/1335928818335444992

ElJeffe

Looking inevitable now it's no deal unfortunately

dogbert27

Winters wrote: »

Am i correct in saying the UK could have done than while they were an EU member? I think another EU member has that in affect although it may be an EFTA member im thinking of.

I think Denmark have it

An Ciarraioch

Winters wrote: »

Am i correct in saying the UK could have done than while they were an EU member? I think another EU member has that in affect although it may be an EFTA member im thinking of.

In NI, practically all the national quota is owned by locals, and I believe the stats for the Republic are pretty much the same:

https://www.bbc.com/news/52420116

fly_agaric

Shelga wrote: »

If it is no deal, the 600 pages of text they've already agreed about everything that isn't fish or LPF goes straight into the bin? :(What a colossal waste of everyone's time. It's crazy how much diplomatic energy has gone into trying to work all this out over the last 4 years. Brexiters just take all that for granted. I'm sure all of the EU people involved in these discussions didn't enter their careers to spend years of their lives doing this stuff, and now it might just all have been for nothing anyway.

Agree totally about the opportunity cost of all this.
Wasted time and energy & the sowing of seeds of dissention & mistrust between countries that should be friends and allies are the main products of Brexit so far.

However the EU is a fairly predictable organisation in how it will deal (negotiate) with outsiders (has to be a very strong internal consensus or close to it on the "red lines" or it is pointless).
Barring massive political uphevals in several member states most of it could (imo) sit there to be taken off the shelf in the future if the UK changes its mind later.

Nody

Winters wrote: »

Am i correct in saying the UK could have done than while they were an EU member? I think another EU member has that in affect although it may be an EFTA member im thinking of.

They could and they will now have a very costly legal fight if they try to do so (rights were sold based on a certain premise that is now changed); I'd guess it was more a case of "Oh crap we're to close to a deal; let's add a new requirement" kind of moment.

fly_agaric

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Frost now demanding that British fishing boats would have to be wholly owned by Britons, rather than licensing them to foreign owners, as happens at present:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/07/michel-barnier-says-brexit-talks-will-not-go-beyond-wednesday

A bit funny from the crowd (Conservatives) that were welcoming in China to build Nuclear power plants and telecom infrastructure and (imo) have allowed sell off and/or withering away of so much of UKs industry & scientific/technological capacity.

lawred2

Hurrache wrote: »

How prescient of you.
Not quite sure what the ground is that he claims they must stand on, it's almost as if they nearly fell into a deal accidentally and are now quickly trying to backpedal given Tory statements over the last 48 hours and the upcoming HoC vote.

https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/1335928818335444992

nice of him to link up the Sun

ancapailldorcha

Mod: No name calling please. Post deleted.

Shelga

fly_agaric wrote: »

Agree totally about the opportunity cost of all this.
Wasted time and energy & the sowing of seeds of dissention & mistrust between countries that should be friends and allies are the main products of Brexit so far.

However the EU is a fairly predictable organisation in how it will deal (negotiate) with outsiders (has to be a very strong internal consensus or close to it on the "red lines" or it is pointless).
Barring massive political uphevals in several member states most of it could (imo) sit there to be taken off the shelf in the future if the UK changes its mind later.

It just would have been nice if at any point the UK had acknowledged all of the hard work and effort that has been put in full time by probably hundreds of EU diplomats, to try and reach an agreement that both sides can live with. They could have said something like "While the UK is fully entitled to leave the European Union and triggering article 50 is the mechanism for doing this, we would like to thank all of the people who have worked hard to develop these texts, and recognise that this is work that was not expected before 2016."

Was never, ever, ever going to happen though!

ElJeffe

There is no getting around the competition rules. This is over bar the shouting. Very difficult few years ahead I'm afraid

Kermit.de.frog

Irish Times saying the British government will make a statement on the Internal Markets Bill after Johnson call which is set for 4 pm with the Commission president but before the bill is tabled in the commons at 5:15.

It would stretch credibility for the EU to continue negotiating with a government determined to undermine an existing agreement.

trellheim

reminder : Commons Live for IMB bill starts in 10 minutes. Defence Questions first. I'll watch and post a reminder in-thread when IMB gets going

fly_agaric

Shelga wrote: »

It just would have been nice if at any point the UK had acknowledged all of the hard work and effort that has been put in full time by probably hundreds of EU diplomats, to try and reach an agreement that both sides can live with. They could have said something like "While the UK is fully entitled to leave the European Union and triggering article 50 is the mechanism for doing this, we would like to thank all of the people who have worked hard to develop these texts, and recognise that this is work that was not expected before 2016."

Was never, ever, ever going to happen though!

No, that does not seem like the style of this UK government.
In any case I think the EU is viewed as the enemy to be defeated utterly by the Conservatives.

Probably why getting agreement (which will involve the UK backing down on things, making uncomfortable choices...feels like "defeat") has been so hard throughout the process.

We were never supposed to be at this point 4 years later. The EU and the Euro currency area should have collapsed in absolute chaos, loads of other countries (incl. Ireland) should have seen the "light" and left the EU etc.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Irish Times saying the British government will make a statement on the Internal Markets Bill after Johnson call which is set for 4 pm with the Commission president but before the bill is tabled in the commons at 5:15.

It would stretch credibility for the EU to continue negotiating with a government determined to undermine an existing agreement.

Barnier apparently flagged today it is game over if the IMB or Finance clauses are proceeded with.

Hurrache

lawred2 wrote: »

nice of him to link up the Sun

Probably not too many places left that are willing to publish him anymore.

Kermit.de.frog

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

One thing everyone outside the UK is so dumbfounded about is why any logical people (and the British were seen as realists up to recently) would so willingly cut their nose to spite their face sorta say.

Why would politicians willingly want to lower the living standards and make worse the livelihoods of their own constituents? In face of all the facts that point to no silver lining to Brexit, nothing, nada.

But then we should remember that UK politics is very different to our own brand of parish pump politics, however much we might dislike the likes of Healy Rae he at least at some level cares for his constituents and represents them. In UK on other hands mostly due to first past the post voting and mostly due to a stratified society and maybe also factor in the rabid media, it's normal to ignore your constituents.

Those MPs live in a bubble in London, London is almost a different country to the rest of UK. They look around and do not see what the rest of the UK population sees, hence its easy to overestimate the "greatness" of the Britains position. Other Brexiteers come from Etonian background and already "different" to the rest of the population. And if it all goes south they just walk away and collect a pension. There is no penalty for screwing over their own countrymen.

What's the rate of turnaround of MP's in Westminster compared to TD's in the Dail?

Anyone know?

Anecdotally it seems to me there are more new faces in the Dail proportionally with each election than there is in an election to Westminster.

Are Westminster seats safer?

Lumen

In this time of near-crisis I take comfort from the Telegraph's reality-distortion field.

All that is required for a deal to be done is for the Brexiters to claim victory and for the EU to nod and smile. It's like an extension of what Yuval Noah Harari calls "imagined reality".

Of course Farage and co. will complain no matter what, but I suspect that the Brexiter sub-population are so fatigued at this point they would rather just choose to believe it and move on.