Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk

I was listening to Matt Cooper earlier and one of the contributors was saying while it was good the clauses has been removed in the IM Bill and the Finance Bill, it seems like the Taxation Bill will be the one to watch now as there are clauses in there that are just as bad if not worse than the IM Bill.

I have not seen a lot of comment on it yet as I believe it still needs to be published but it seems like while they give with one hand they take away with another.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1336017436483567617

Not looking good.

trellheim

PR from VdL

With
@BorisJohnson
we took stock of the negotiations. The conditions for an agreement are not there due to remaining differences on critical issues.

We asked our Chief Negotiators to prepare an overview of the remaining differences to be discussed in person in the coming days.

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1336018905781964803/photo/1

Spanish Eyes

They are liars. And I don't trust them at all to keep their promises. Westminster I mean.

trellheim

same PR from the UK side
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1336020068317229056

https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1336020068317229056/photo/1

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1336018905781964803

screamer

Jesus its the titanic at this stage, I do not know why they insist on trying to save something that is going under. Im fed up with Uk and EU equally at this point, agree to disagree and move the hell on. we've a lot more to do for a no deal situation and we should be doing that

Akrasia

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1336018905781964803

Joint statement is usually better than 2 individual statements although this time the statement is that they both agree that agreement seems to be impossible

Sam Russell

Enzokk wrote: »

I was listening to Matt Cooper earlier and one of the contributors was saying while it was good the clauses has been removed in the IM Bill and the Finance Bill, it seems like the Taxation Bill will be the one to watch now as there are clauses in there that are just as bad if not worse than the IM Bill.

I have not seen a lot of comment on it yet as I believe it still needs to be published but it seems like while they give with one hand they take away with another.

The difference between the IMB and the finance bill is the first can get amended and stuck in the HoL but the second is a money bill and cannot effectively be amended by the Lords.

There cannot be a deal now that the UK keep moving the goal posts over pelagic fish.

EU - a good deal with mutual trust.

UK - an oven ready deal well trussed.

Infini

screamer wrote: »

Jesus its the titanic at this stage, I do not know why they insist on trying to save something that is going under. Im fed up with Uk and EU equally at this point, agree to disagree and move the hell on. we've a lot more to do for a no deal situation and we should be doing that

The UK is the one who are really at fault, they undermined their own credibility with the 3 bills and their constant gaslighting. Their agenda is based on bullshìt but as we've seen already with Trump while bullshìt got them to where they are it will also be what brings them low too.

The EU cannot be faulted for this its all on the UK, they'll talk as long as they can but as were seeing now while they'll explore all options to be thourough the clock has run out and it strongly looks like we're heading for the nuclear scenario brought to and sponsored by the corrupt Tory party.

Akrasia

screamer wrote: »

Jesus its the titanic at this stage, I do not know why they insist on trying to save something that is going under. Im fed up with Uk and EU equally at this point, agree to disagree and move the hell on. we've a lot more to do for a no deal situation and we should be doing that

If there’s even a 10% chance of avoiding a total crash out on Jan 1 then the EU are right to keep up negotiations

It would be catastrophic for many Irish businesses who are already suffering badly due to Covid

Infini

Akrasia wrote: »

If there’s even a 10% chance of avoiding a total crash out on Jan 1 then the EU are right to keep up negotiations

It would be catastrophic for many Irish businesses who are already suffering badly due to Covid

Of course it never hurts to check everything and being thourogh, but lets face it we've seen this coming for a long time, many had hoped that it might be avoided but I knew myself these liars in the UK were likely to pull something like this and it was going to backfire.

Facts and Rules > Unicorns and Ideology.

All we can do is essentially writeoff what trade we have with the UK and maximise our connections with mainland Europe. The UK for the next few years will only be useful for the Booze Cruize and entertainment, it wont be viable for anything else until the Tories are thrown under the Labour Red Bus.

awec

screamer wrote: »

Jesus its the titanic at this stage, I do not know why they insist on trying to save something that is going under. Im fed up with Uk and EU equally at this point, agree to disagree and move the hell on. we've a lot more to do for a no deal situation and we should be doing that

Neither side wants to be the one that pulls the plug.

Boris wants the EU to walk away so he can blame them for being intransigent and unreasonable when the **** hits the fan.

The EU want to avoid being the ones to walk away to avoid giving Boris the opportunity to try and blame them for Britain's certain upcoming woes.

Infini

I honestly think any lost buisness with the UK can be quickly replaced with buisness from Europe quickly, we're in a position that we could replace a large chunk of British produce with our own in Europe in a couple of years. We've spent the last 4 years divesting ourselves of trade with the UK so the impact has been mitigated as much as possible.

Widdensushi

Infini wrote: »

I honestly think any lost buisness with the UK can be quickly replaced with buisness from Europe quickly, we're in a position that we could replace a large chunk of British produce with our own in Europe in a couple of years. We've spent the last 4 years divesting ourselves of trade with the UK so the impact has been mitigated as much as possible.

What happens with the north now, back to a hard border?

Infini

awec wrote: »

Neither side wants to be the one that pulls the plug.

Boris wants the EU to walk away so he can blame them for being intransigent and unreasonable when the **** hits the fan.

The EU want to avoid being the ones to walk away to avoid giving Boris the opportunity to try and blame them for Britain's certain upcoming woes.

Boris was always intent on doing this, it was so obvious everyone saw it from a mile off. The EU side was never gonna walk because it doesnt need to. If the clock runs out because Boris refuses to agree to the ground rules it all on his head because he created the situation. If no deal is annouced as we expect at this point its because Boris deliberately burned all his options to avoid this not the EU.

Hell even if theres a no deal now those rules and requirements arent going to change if anything they'll be hard requirements in any future deal no matter what. Blame is free but blame only gets so far before the uncomfortable questions begin getting asked at home and it starts to dawn how they got into that situation to begin with.

End of the day Boris and Co made this happen not the EU.

Infini

Widdensushi wrote: »

What happens with the north now, back to a hard border?

Honestly its all unknown but the border is only a short term issue in the Grand Scheme of things. Honestly I'm expecting calls and opinions to shift towards a UI and expecially should Scotland break away from Tory infested Wangland over the course of the next decade. Ultimately the UK is becoming a failed state and likely wont survive as an entity in the long run thanks to this.

volchitsa

Widdensushi wrote: »

What happens with the north now, back to a hard border?

That's the big question isn't it? I still can't work out how that's going to work - drivers' licences, pet passports, health service, young people in higher education: it all needs to be sorted out for the border not to be a disaster, and they're busy worrying about flipping fishing quotas!

Zubeneschamali

Akrasia wrote: »

If there’s even a 10% chance of avoiding a total crash out on Jan 1 then the EU are right to keep up negotiations

Even if there is a No Deal crash out, the EU will be open to continued negotiations.

Even if there is still no deal in 20 years, the EU will be open to continued negotiations.

Why not? It can't get worse than No Deal.

Patser

Interestingly though pound is back up to where it started the day. Sharp jump after joint announcement. So someone is predicting a deal

Zubeneschamali

Widdensushi wrote: »

What happens with the north now, back to a hard border?

No, we just wait a few months until PM Starmer sends his team to negotiate.

Infini

Patser wrote: »

Interestingly though pound is back up to where it started the day. Sharp jump after joint announcement. So someone is predicting a deal

Markets are ultimately guesswork though remember what happened in 2016, they thought there'd be no Brexit then sterling tanked when the result was announced. They might be predicting a deal atm but they might be pricing in Boris to relent. I don't think he will as he boxed hinself in and now he's damned either way.

All it takes is the annoucement that the EU declare there is no longer any time to agree a deal and sterling takes another big dump like 2016. When it happens it will happen fast and chances of a deal are looking unlikely thanks to current and past antics and behaviour.

An Ciarraioch

Coveney increasingly pessimistic in the Irish Examiner:

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40177380.html?type=amp&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

Brussels Sprout

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Will a no deal be "catastrophic" for "many" businesses in reality tho? Last CSO publication puts exports to UK at 7% most of which is stuff UK needs.

It probably won't affect most businesses directly but the businesses that it does will be hammered:

• Agricultural businesses
• International haulage companies
• Businesses near the border
• Any others businesses elsewhere in the country who export chiefly to the UK - especially with Sterling likely to become considerably weaker in a No Deal scenario

Infini

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Coveney increasingly pessimistic in the Irish Examiner:

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40177380.html?type=amp&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

Honestly I think they know at this point that the ball is in the UK's court. The EU has rules and principals it will always stick to. Cant save the UK from itself if Boris deliberately wants to drive his country off the cliffs of dover. Its up to the UK to either back down or own its choices.

Strazdas

Patser wrote: »

Interestingly though pound is back up to where it started the day. Sharp jump after joint announcement. So someone is predicting a deal

I'm not convinced. According to Tony Connelly and several others, there are still big differences between the two sides with little progress.

Could Johnson merely be engaging in some form of cynical PR stunt, with no intention of concluding a deal?

Infini

Strazdas wrote: »

I'm not convinced. According to Tony Connelly and several others, there are still big differences between the two sides with little progress.

Could Johnson merely be engaging in some form of cynical PR stunt, with no intention of concluding a deal?

Likely that's what it's going to be. The differences are to big on 3 key areas, the UK is putting through treaty breaking legislation and their government is controlled by Ideologues, idiots and clowns. Times basically up so and honestly the EU have prepared and are likely prepared to deal with these clowns once and for all so if the UK wants its soviergnty thats fine becauss the EU has 27 of them and doesnt have to compromise under blackmail from a government of charlatans and liars.

Shelga

If there’s no deal, do they retain all their own waters for fishing, but have no one to sell the fish to?

The word fish has lost all meaning for me in the last few days.

Brussels Sprout

Shelga wrote: »

If there’s no deal, do they retain all their own waters for fishing, but have no one to sell the fish to?

The word fish has lost all meaning for me in the last few days.

They could still sell the fish - but there would be a tariff on it in the EU.

breezy1985

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

There's a sticky at top of this forum about betting odds, forex is another form of gambling. I remember being on this subforum on early hours after US election with loads of posts about "Trump won cause odds"

Needless to say there must have been alot of people feeling like suckers later as they all seemed to dissappear.

In 20 years time my abiding memory of that election will still be being half cut at 3am listening to Trump fans scream "look at the bookies lads" on boards