Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

robindch

Strazdas wrote: »

They do, but one wonders if the Gove climb down signals a Johnson climb down.

It'll be played back home as a victory for Johnson and company. As above, the reality of the negotiations are less important than how they're being portrayed.

If the report is accurate, then the next hurdle is to get the climbdown past the ERG and similar headbangers.

robindch

Cheensbo wrote: »

do the huge differences regarding LPF, state aid & fisheries not still remain?

The differences are not major, but they're being portrayed as major - it's likely that the EU will have made some mid-level concession on fisheries which makes little difference to it, but which can be spun as a major victory in the UK. Hard to know if the ERG will accept that and move on, or whether they're going to throw their toys out of the pram when reality dawns.

Actually scratch that, reality won't dawn for the ERG. What they do will be dictated by the needs of domestic politics at the moment they're required to make a decision and when that will be, and under what political conditions that will happen, are unpredictable at the moment.

Sierra Oscar

It looks like a monumental climb down from the UK Government is incoming. Too early to say for sure, but looking possible. So much for breaking the spirit of morale and comradeship of the EU at the last minute!

Leroy42

It is a significant announcement. Caveat that we don't have the details, but from the initial reporting, the UK seem to have finally agreed to the full implementation of the WA. Therefore the threat of a hard border on the island is now gone (at least atm).

Yet again calls into question the entire decision-making process of the UK government. They make an agreement, kick up a stink about it and threaten to break international law, annoy both the EU and the US, and in the end agree to it anyway.

I am sure they will paint it as a great win for the UK, let them, because at the heart of it Ireland gets to avoid a hard border by the UK takin on the responsibility to verify and ensure goods going to and from NI meet with EU standards or can be guaranteed to not enter EU.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

They do, but one wonders if the Gove climb down signals a Johnson climb down.

Johnson will get a 'win' on fish and cave on level playing field and governance. ERG will go bananas but Johnson should have the numbers especially if the broken Labour party supports the deal.

Strazdas

robindch wrote: »

It'll be played back home as a victory for Johnson and company. As above, the reality of the negotiations are less important than how they're being portrayed.

If the report is accurate, then the next hurdle is to get the climbdown past the ERG and similar headbangers.

In reality, it would / will mean a huge amount of concessions from Johnson. Reported that France has the backing of Italy, Spain, NL and Belgium. These are all EU heavyweights.

lawred2

This is good news right?

robindch

ath262 wrote: »

BREAK: The UK drops all its 'law breaking' clauses - including plans for more in forthcoming taxation bill - after @michaelgove and @MarosSefcovic agree deal on terms of implementing Northern Irish Protocol. 1/

Nothing to stop Johnson introducing them again in the future if he wants to.

Leroy42

robindch wrote: »

Nothing to stop Johnson introducing them again in the future if he wants to.

Of course, but there is nothing stopping them from declaring war either. Except for the consequences of such decisions.

If they put them back in then the deal is immediately off and the very thing they are obviously trying to avoid (No Deal) comes back into play.

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is a significant announcement. Caveat that we don't have the details, but from the initial reporting, the UK seem to have finally agreed to the full implementation of the WA. Therefore the threat of a hard border on the island is now gone (at least atm).

Yet again calls into question the entire decision-making process of the UK government. They make an agreement, kick up a stink about it and threaten to break international law, annoy both the EU and the US, and in the end agree to it anyway.

I am sure they will paint it as a great win for the UK, let them, because at the heart of it Ireland gets to avoid a hard border by the UK takin on the responsibility to verify and ensure goods going to and from NI meet with EU standards or can be guaranteed to not enter EU.

If you look at the people who constitute the current Tory party then the UK's deceitful nature is understandable. People who lied about Brexit and have lied about everything else since. Johnson being the prime example. Populist donkeys led by a populist donkey.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

In reality, it would / will mean a huge amount of concessions from Johnson. Reported that France has the backing of Italy, Spain, NL and Belgium. These are all EU heavyweights.

And Ireland but behind the scenes. Other countries know that we have to remain 'friends' with Britain. Even if it's only on Facebook.

Strazdas

lawred2 wrote: »

This is good news right?

Potentially, yes. Would the UK have done this unless an even bigger climb down is coming?

Brussels Sprout

Is....is that it?

Professor Moriarty

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Is....is that it?

No, we have the choreography to come.

fash

forgottenhills wrote: »

Define a "hard border" please? Everyone makes it sound like a prison wall with armed guards.

In every Brexit outcome where NI was not going to be part of the Single Market it was always going to be the case that there would be border controls on the Irish/NI and Irish/UK borders and ports, that would have to be imposed by the Irish/EU authorities in order to protect the Single Market. Ireland/the EU have been remarkably coy about this all through the various Brexit talks.

Which is to say that even after all this time, you believe the Tory Brexiter politicians when they swear blind that they themselves would never do so (and are happy to incur revenue losses of 10's of billions while doing so)?

Lumen

As I see it, this news simply means that the UK will not be breaching the WA.

Boris is still briefing that no deal is likely.

Brexit: Boris Johnson warns securing deal is 'looking very, very difficult'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/08/brexit-boris-johnson-warns-securing-deal-is-looking-very-very-difficult

54and56

Strazdas wrote: »

Potentially, yes. Would the UK have done this unless an even bigger climb down is coming?

It's very hard to see why the UK would allow itself to be boxed into this mutually agreed arrangement and give up the "Sovereign Right" to break the WA treaty if it wasn't part of a carefully planned end game to the FTA negotiations which results in a deal.

I know I'm flip flopping* now Vs my earlier assessment but with this development it's hard to see how a deal isn't already in the bag with just the razamatazz of the Brussels meeting to put a stamp on it?

* If the information or circumstances change you have to be mature enough to change your mind.

Does this somehow align me with something David Davis previously said about democracy?

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1083289444558561280

Sierra Oscar

Lumen wrote: »

As I see it, this news simply means that the UK will not be breaching the WA.

Boris is still briefing that no deal is likely.

Brexit: Boris Johnson warns securing deal is 'looking very, very difficult'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/08/brexit-boris-johnson-warns-securing-deal-is-looking-very-very-difficult

He could still be setting himself up for claiming he did everything in his power to secure a deal, including dropping the controversial elements of the Internal Market Bill before a no deal scenario unfolds.

Although the cynic in me suspects that Johnson is setting himself up to claim he snatched a great victory when he inevitably caves and agrees what should have been agreed months ago. He is all about optics for the domestic audience.

fash

54and56 wrote: »

It's very hard to see why the UK would allow itself to be boxed into this mutually agreed arrangement and give up the "Sovereign Right" to break the WA treaty if it wasn't part of a carefully planned end game to the FTA negotiations which results in a deal.

I know I'm flip flopping* now Vs my earlier assessment but with this development it's hard to see how a deal isn't already in the bag with just the razamatazz of the Brussels meeting to put a stamp on it?

* If the information or circumstances change you have to be mature enough to change your mind.

Does this somehow align me with something David Davis previously said about democracy?

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1083289444558561280

Agree that it is a strong signal. I'll just now go check what sterling is doing...

Lemming

fash wrote: »

One thing that also needs to be borne in mind: even assuming the UK fails to deal with the EU (and US) and thinks it can withstand EU pressure until e.g. the next election cycle- what FTA conditions in the meantime do you think you could get if you were Canada or Australia?
That would be some barrel over which the UK would be placed...

The cynical view for the likes of Canada, Australia, etc. might be to wait out the current UK government rather than expend time & effort on FTA discussions that may inevitably prove to be incredibly short-lived. Australia & New Zealand are particularly aware of what happened last time the UK joined the then EEC.

So the UK may end up spending a couple of years not only getting mauled by big economic blocs around the world but fobbed off on attempts at trade agreements of any tangible size before common sense returns. At any rate given how long it takes to conduct FTAs and then for the years that follow to determine the actual successful worth/outcome of said FTAs, the UK may not see any actual benefits (such as they might be) if at all before a U turn were to occur.

Lumen

Oh, it appears that this "NI protocol is fine" news isn't even today's news, because yesterday:

Checks on goods crossing Irish Sea to start from 1 January
Government confirms no delay, despite demands from businesses and farmers in Northern Ireland
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/07/gove-heads-to-brussels-to-thrash-out-deal-on-post-brexit-northern-ireland-checks

The Cabinet Office confirmed after a meeting between Michael Gove and the European commission vice-president, Maroš Šefčovič, in Brussels on Monday that calls for a delay to the commencement had been rejected.

CelticRambler

54and56 wrote: »

It's very hard to see why the UK would allow itself to be boxed into this mutually agreed arrangement and give up the "Sovereign Right" to break the WA treaty if it wasn't part of a carefully planned end game to the FTA negotiations which results in a deal.

With due regard to Lumen's post, I think it's far more like to be a case of left and right hands not knowing what they're doing! Remind me again when the last vote on these contentious articles was held ... oh, yeah: last night. :rolleyes:

reslfj

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think this will even be necessary. Worst case is a hard border and the knowledge all around the world that this happened because the British government is a deceitful, bad actor.

Any main 'EU battle' with the UK will not be in NI, but most likely between England and the EU26 - i.e. English East+South coast harbours and English airports. It will be with a lot outside trade - e.g. permissions, mutual recognitions, common institution and standard + rule compliance etc. etc.


The EU will like to negotiate and agree, but it will strictly defend what has been agreed.

Lars

Imreoir2

forgottenhills wrote: »

I wouldn't get all worked up about trade controls on the border, tariffs would be the much more serious issue. Border controls would be a nuisance for those trading across the border, but no more than that. We had 60 years of it up to EU accession and it wasn't the end of the world, no reason for the hot-headed types to be pulling the pike from the thatch anyway.

Except for the mass protests, bombings, shootings, rocket attacks, and killings at posts all along the lenght of the border you mean...

The Irish Times put together a map of the hundreds of incidents that happened along the border. Really highlights the nonsence that is the suggestion that customs posts were benign infrastructure that caused no problems in the past.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/brexit/borderlands/the-border

Most of the people that were engaged in those attacks are still alive and living along the border today. Do you think none of them will take exception to a hard border being imposed on them again?

Lumen

CelticRambler wrote: »

With due regard to Lumen's post, I think it's far more like to be a case of left and right hands not knowing what they're doing! Remind me again when the last vote on these contentious articles was held ... oh, yeah: last night. :rolleyes:

I think this is a pure sequencing balls up.

The govt had some time ago decided that these provisions were toast, but were continuing on with the charade because they wanted to cede them on conclusion of a trade deal, which was supposed to happen over the weekend.

Gove would have then gone to Brussels to sort out the NI Protocol implementation.

As it happened, the trade negotiations dragged on but Gove went anyway, and wasn't able to keep up that charade in person. Meanwhile Commons business was continuing on.

This is what happens when you try to squeeze years of negotiations into a few days.

Omnishambles.

forgottenhills

CelticRambler wrote: »

Coy? Hardly, when there was a well-publicised dispute about whether or not EU inspectors could operate from an office located in the North. And it also seems to have passed you by that the border controls - fully discussed, and the subject of an IT system being developed by the Japanese for roll-out in the New Year - will take place along the Irish Sea border.

Again, all this is "signed, sealed and almost delivered" - absolutely nothing to do with the GB-EU talks going "down to the wire" this week. Of course, it's entirely possible that Johnson will decide to reinforce the UK's pariah-state status by openly reneging on the treaty obligations that he signed, but that doesn't change the operating environment unless he can also get legitimate traders in GB to risk their reputations and their business by deliberately flouting international import-export rules.

I was talking primarily about the Irish land border. In any scenario where NI was not going to be treated as part of the Single Market then Ireland/the EU would be forced to introduce border controls on the land border to protect the Single Market. The Irish government has been remarkably coy about the contingency arrangements for this, I certainly haven't heard about these.

Anyway great news today that there has been agreement on the implementation of the NI Protocol which hopefully will make most land border issues moot when we see the details and the actual implications.

Imreoir2

Lumen wrote: »

As I see it, this news simply means that the UK will not be breaching the WA.

Boris is still briefing that no deal is likely.

Brexit: Boris Johnson warns securing deal is 'looking very, very difficult'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/08/brexit-boris-johnson-warns-securing-deal-is-looking-very-very-difficult

It looks better if you manage to do something that was 'dificult'.
Looks like he is laying the groundwork to be able to say 'we fought hard to the very end and got a great deal'.

forgottenhills

54and56 wrote: »

It's very hard to see why the UK would allow itself to be boxed into this mutually agreed arrangement and give up the "Sovereign Right" to break the WA treaty if it wasn't part of a carefully planned end game to the FTA negotiations which results in a deal.

I know I'm flip flopping* now Vs my earlier assessment but with this development it's hard to see how a deal isn't already in the bag with just the razamatazz of the Brussels meeting to put a stamp on it?

* If the information or circumstances change you have to be mature enough to change your mind.

Does this somehow align me with something David Davis previously said about democracy?

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1083289444558561280

Agreeing the NI Protocol would appease the Biden administration and would be one less issue in a No Deal scenario for the UK. They would be able to proceed to talks with the US over a trade deal.

It has been reported for weeks that the talks on the NI Protocol had been going well so I don't believe that this is an indication on the main UK/EU talks.

Thargor

Had a look at the comments on the express for a laugh, even they're saying the UK caved.

Strazdas

Thargor wrote: »

Had a look at the comments on the express for a laugh, even they're saying the UK caved.

Polly Toynbee predicted yesterday in a Guardian article that Brexiteers will be furious no matter what happens and claiming they have been 'stabbed in the back' and 'sold out' etc.