Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

CelticRambler wrote: »

Doesn't stop tens of thousands of mono-lingual English people coming over here (to France), buying up our derelict houses, emptying the shops of McVities Digestives, filling our schools with their offspring, getting themselves elected to the local council ... [note: some of the information contained in this post may now be obsolete] :rolleyes:

I think the CTA has helped maintain Ireland's dependence on GB for longer than was necessarily good for the country. Sure, I benefited from the same escape route when my career ambitions couldn't be immediately fulfilled in Dublin; but some thirty years later, those ambitions still haven't been fulfilled in the way I intended and now never will. Somewhat ironcially, out of all the contracts I've looked at in the last three years, the one that's got me most excited came up yesterday ... for a job in the Congo (on the back of my experience of living and working in France). The CTA didn't get me to this point, but without EU Freedom of Movement, I wouldn't even have seen the ad, let alone be appropriately qualified for the role.

I tried doing some googling about moving to France and everything seemed to indicate that a non-French speaker would be fortunate to even get a job, never mind cope with day-to-day bureaucracy.

The problem with speaking English is it's naturally international nature. There's no real need to speak anything else so nobody from the Atlantic Isles need bother. A shame but c'est la vie.

My own career ambitions have been derailed by various factors. Now, I just want a decent secure job in a country which is unlikely to vote itself into voluntary recession and isolation.

ambro25

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I tried doing some googling about moving to France and everything seemed to indicate that a non-French speaker would be fortunate to even get a job, never mind cope with day-to-day bureaucracy.

The problem with speaking English is it's naturally international nature. There's no real need to speak anything else so nobody from the Atlantic Isles need bother. A shame but c'est la vie.

My own career ambitions have been derailed by various factors. Now, I just want a decent secure job in a country which is unlikely to vote itself into voluntary recession and isolation.

'told you before, 'will tell you again: look at Luxembourg here, or the Netherlands. Both with large intake capacity and demand for STEMs, even English-only.

We've got a Brexodee parachuting in next week from Scotland. No French or German, certainly no Luxembourgish or Flemish. Not a problem at all for him, everything is in English and everyone speaks it. Most capital cities on continent these days are such a cosmopolitan melting pot, that it's not the problem it once was.

mrunsure

ambro25 wrote: »

'told you before, 'will tell you again: look at Luxembourg here, or the Netherlands. Both with large intake capacity and demand for STEMs, even English-only.

We've got a Brexodee parachuting in next week from Scotland. No French or German, certainly no Luxembourgish or Flemish. Not a problem at all for him, everything is in English and everyone speaks it. Most capital cities on continent these days are such a cosmopolitan melting pot, that it's not the problem it once was.

How easy is it for a non-EU citizen to get a job in Luxembourg?

trellheim

How easy is it for a non-EU citizen to get a job in Luxembourg?

very easy . my mate holds US passport, no problem working in banks which is a massive business in lux.

easier to live on the french side and drive in though, lux is a bit inward facing

snowstorm445

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I tried doing some googling about moving to France and everything seemed to indicate that a non-French speaker would be fortunate to even get a job, never mind cope with day-to-day bureaucracy.

The problem with speaking English is it's naturally international nature. There's no real need to speak anything else so nobody from the Atlantic Isles need bother. A shame but c'est la vie.

My own career ambitions have been derailed by various factors. Now, I just want a decent secure job in a country which is unlikely to vote itself into voluntary recession and isolation.

Depending on the field you are working in, you might have better luck in the Low Countries with English, particularly the Netherlands, but also most of Belgium and Luxembourg. Perhaps even the Nordics as well, although I'm less familiar with that part of the world. I suspect in Germany you might find work with just English, but the bureaucracy would definitely require German.

You really have to hope that with Brexit there is more of an awareness in Ireland of the benefits of the EU in terms of freedom of movement/employment opportunities etc. With Britain more or less closed off, its a choice between the other far-flung parts of the Anglosphere (and all the paperwork that comes with that) and the much closer, readily accessible job market on our doorstep. The importance of English makes it easier than a lot of people think, but in fairness (and I'm not having a go at you here) that shouldn't completely rule out learning other languages if need be - the privilege of universal monolingualism is exactly the sort of thing that shapes the Brexiteer mindset and their superiority complex towards other Europeans.

Seth Brundle

Tony has another twitter thread which looks promising...

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1336628611005157378

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1336628613827989509

...continues in the thread.

It seems to be more of a fudge whereby the UK will stick to the current rules rather than UK will abide by EU rules.

10000maniacs

Hurrache wrote: »

I think they usually have it up on their site afterwards.

Found it

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000q2mt

BonnieSituation

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Once you have a united Ireland, the reason for the CTA disappears, then all bets are off.

Well, we don't have a UI. And as much as I want one, I'm talking in the here and now.

PeadarCo

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Sure but in the event of a united Ireland then it loses much of its importance. I don't know if they'd keep it just for unionists is NI successfully unites with the Republic.

As I said that's a charitable view of the DUPs position. The other side of it is that unionists have had decades of dealing with nationalists. Expecting English nationalists to care anymore about NI than Irish nationalists was always going to end badly. You could see that in all the polls done on how English people viewed NI. Those views were always going to drive political decisions when trade offs had to be made. Something which the DUP ignored to their cost.

ancapailldorcha

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Depending on the field you are working in, you might have better luck in the Low Countries with English, particularly the Netherlands, but also most of Belgium and Luxembourg. Perhaps even the Nordics as well, although I'm less familiar with that part of the world. I suspect in Germany you might find work with just English, but the bureaucracy would definitely require German.

You really have to hope that with Brexit there is more of an awareness in Ireland of the benefits of the EU in terms of freedom of movement/employment opportunities etc. With Britain more or less closed off, its a choice between the other far-flung parts of the Anglosphere (and all the paperwork that comes with that) and the much closer, readily accessible job market on our doorstep. The importance of English makes it easier than a lot of people think, but in fairness (and I'm not having a go at you here) that shouldn't completely rule out learning other languages if need be - the privilege of universal monolingualism is exactly the sort of thing that shapes the Brexiteer mindset and their superiority complex towards other Europeans.

I've done a little looking into it. I work in life sciences and there are opportunities there such as the EMBO labs in Heidelberg for instance. I fancy something new though is the thing and I think that puts me at a disadvantage.

I think I've been spoiled in the UK due to the opportunities and the fact that the southeast is a boon for tech and science.

I did know this was coming but I always thought the CTA would just continue to endure and I still like living here. I have no problem learning other languages at all. The problem is that one need only know English when in the UK, even when working in such a European institute as I do. Same as in Ireland due to the trade with the UK and the US. There's no impetus to learn anything else when anyone from Poland who only speaks Polish will struggle terribly when they try and move somewhere else.

BonnieSituation

breezy1985 wrote: »

They got burnt by a Tory party whome it was obvious didn't give a toss about Ireland and never have all in an attempt to look ultra British. The Tory's only caring about England and at that only parts of it is nothing new.

As for Brexit I think they tried to back it to look good for the core vote and again bang that ultra British drum but we're sure remain would win and have only themselves to blame.

You would imagine at some stage Unionism will have to develop a moderate party and try take the protestant youth vote that is currently jumping ship to the alliance

Ya see, that's what Mike Nesbitt was trying to do, but yet again the the Never never crowd ruined it for all of us. Again.

The young unionist, the dwindling amount of them that there are, have alliance. They'll be fine.

BonnieSituation

joe40 wrote: »

I think a united Ireland is still a long way off. I can see closer integration, the sort of thing which started with the GFA but the North will remain part of the UK.

I just don't feel there is the appetite among both communities for the upheaval a UI would involve. The GFA worked because it was a fudge which suited both sides.

Of course all bets are off if there are serious economic downturn in the North or in the UK.

Nationalism and idealism are are well and good but i think hard economics are a bigger driver.

As for the DUP they are an absolute disaster for the North.

Hard economics and a UI go hand in hand.

There's a cohort of young cultural unionists who have no time for the insular nonsense of old and see what Unionism has brought them in less freedoms and opportunities.

The next elections are key. If alliance and SF and the SDLP rise as they have been then a UI is closer than you think.

BonnieSituation

mrunsure wrote: »

My question was really if people in Ireland actually like having the ability to move to England without restriction, and would be upset if it disappeared.

I'll put my cards on the table. I'm English and I'm interested in moving to Ireland in the future. I'd love to move now but I'm constrained by my partner's job so it wouldn't be for at least another 5 years.

Well, it's a nice option. But the same as moving to Malta or Bulgaria are nice options.

The only difference is that the North Eastern part of our island still has to deal with British jurisdiction, so until then I guess we're all intertwined.

54and56

Deleted User wrote: »

Once you have a united Ireland, the reason for the CTA disappears, then all bets are off.

And so it should disappear. We currently have one foot on the boat and one foot on the quay (so to speak) by having the benefit of free movement within the EU (not Shengen level) and have free movement and the right to vote etc within the UK due to the delicate situation with NI.

Once the constitutional question ref a united Ireland is resolved the need for the CTA will/should fall away and Ireland and the UK can treat each other as equal sovereign nations on the same basis as all other sovereign nations.

That will allow Ireland to join the Shengen area and enjoy the full benefits of no passport/ID freedom of movement within the Shengen area of the EU.

My best guess is that Irish citizens who identify as Unionist will be free to acquire or retain a UK passport in a sort of reversal of the current ability of people with Irish ancestry and/or anyone living in NI to acquire an RoI passport.

Enzokk

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Tony has another twitter thread which looks promising...

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1336628611005157378

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1336628613827989509

...continues in the thread.

It seems to be more of a fudge whereby the UK will stick to the current rules rather than UK will abide by EU rules.

Unless I am misunderstanding, this is all still in relation with the Irish Protocol? It deals with goods going to NI from the UK and the other way as well. This doesn't have an effect on the FTA so we could still be looking at no-deal, just with the WA and Irish protocol properly sorted at least.

Seth Brundle

Enzokk wrote: »

Unless I am misunderstanding, this is all still in relation with the Irish Protocol? It deals with goods going to NI from the UK and the other way as well. This doesn't have an effect on the FTA so we could still be looking at no-deal, just with the WA and Irish protocol properly sorted at least.

I think so too but it also means that there's an angle there (which could be expanded upon) for Boris to follow EU rules but for him to claim something in his usual bravado-filled bluster.
It's good news anyhow for the likes of my in-laws in Belfast who hadn't a clue what was going to happen to them.

trellheim

It seems to be more of a fudge whereby the UK will stick to the current rules rather than UK will abide by EU rules

this I feel will be a strong feature of Brexit in the Uk "no we don't have to follow EU rules, no CJEU for us" ....


so are we actually following EU rules "shhh but yes, the erg will go bananas if you tell them "


^^^^ = definition of oven-ready lol

Jizique

Enzokk wrote: »

Unless I am misunderstanding, this is all still in relation with the Irish Protocol? It deals with goods going to NI from the UK and the other way as well. This doesn't have an effect on the FTA so we could still be looking at no-deal, just with the WA and Irish protocol properly sorted at least.

I agree, setting up for a no deal because of fish and “sovrinty”; hard to believe the party of business has fallen so far

swampgas

Jizique wrote: »

I agree, setting up for a no deal because of fish and “sovrinty”; hard to believe the party of business has fallen so far

Perhaps the Conservatives can be more accurately described as the party of [extreme] wealth? Or simply another party that will do anything for the big donors? The Crispin Odeys and Reese-Moggs, the Murdochs and Barclay brothers, these are the business interests that funnel money to the Tories, and they get their pound of flesh in return.

ElJeffe

Looking like increasingly a no deal scenario in developing. Mood music is very negative coming from both sides and i'm not seeing any slimmer of hope anywhere. Think it's inevitable now and we must except a very difficult few months ahead. Going to be a complete mess at the ports.

LuckyLloyd

Brexit is about tax avoidance and wealth management expressed as “sovereignty”. Everything flows from that.

LuckyLloyd

ElJeffe wrote: »

Looking like increasingly a no deal scenario in developing. Mood music is very negative coming from both sides and i'm not seeing any slimmer of hope anywhere. Think it's inevitable now and we must except a very difficult few months ahead. Going to be a complete mess at the ports.

“We”...you mean “they”?

Ireland will be fine.

joe40

The sterling rate has been holding fairly steady at around 90p - 1 euro, for the last while even with all the trade deal uncertainty.
Do people expect this to plummet in the event of an actual no deal or are traders working on the assumption no deal will happen and are trading accordingly.

Seth Brundle

Jizique wrote: »

I agree, setting up for a no deal because of fish and “sovrinty”; hard to believe the party of business has fallen so far

I'm not sure if they have been the party of business for a few years given the obvious mindset change that allowed a foreign secretary who said "f**k business" to become PM.

ambro25

mrunsure wrote: »

How easy is it for a non-EU citizen to get a job in Luxembourg?

Very easy, subject to the job.

They only want high-capacity professional types. But then, they'll fold themselves 4-ways to attract and then keep them. Used to be banking/finance only, these days it's also insurance/re-insurance, fintech, bio/med, comms/electronics (space/sats tech), and basically any good STEM (Uni on huge drive to rise in global rankings).

Hence around 50% of the resident population is foreign-born, and that is a highly-heterogenous 50%, not "mainly French, Begians and Germans". That stat shoots up to 60-ish% percent daytime, between morning and evening rush hour. Because with real-estate north of €8k per square meter (>12k in Lux city) and appreciating north of 11% per annum, living in France, Belgium or Germany next door is kinda necessary for manytrellheim), the commute is a proper nightmare (easily on par with Dublin). It's just cheaper.

Back in late 2017 when I was considering Brexoding options (cumulatively, in UK 20 years here), I had opportunities in Amsterdam, Lux & Munich. I plumped for Lux mostly because it'd be the easiest landing spot for UK Mrs & early teens kid, and likely the most pragmatic/helpful for us re.whatever Brexit would end up throwing our EU-UK family way.

J Mysterio

joe40 wrote: »

The sterling rate has been holding fairly steady at around 90p - 1 euro, for the last while even with all the trade deal uncertainty.
Do people expect this to plummet in the event of an actual no deal or are traders working on the assumption no deal will happen and are trading accordingly.

It will go through the floor in the event of a No Deal.

peter kern

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I've done a little looking into it. I work in life sciences and there are opportunities there such as the EMBO labs in Heidelberg for instance. I fancy something new though is the thing and I think that puts me at a disadvantage.

I think I've been spoiled in the UK due to the opportunities and the fact that the southeast is a boon for tech and science.

I did know this was coming but I always thought the CTA would just continue to endure and I still like living here. I have no problem learning other languages at all. The problem is that one need only know English when in the UK, even when working in such a European institute as I do. Same as in Ireland due to the trade with the UK and the US. There's no impetus to learn anything else when anyone from Poland who only speaks Polish will struggle terribly when they try and move somewhere else.

if you have lived more than 5 years in uk you can apply for permanent residence .

besides you would get a visa with the point system since surely you earn more than 25000 pounds and they need scientists .

so CTA should have no effect on yourself.

breezy1985

J Mysterio wrote: »

It will go through the floor in the event of a No Deal.

Given that the average wage is a lot lower in the UK this is going really hit home with lower income people the next time they try take a holiday

Oafley Jones

breezy1985 wrote: »

Given that the average wage is a lot lower in the UK this is going really hit home with lower income people the next time they try take a holiday

Forget about holidays, food affordability is going to be their main concern.

Sam Russell

On CTA:

Under British law (1948 iirc), Irish citizens are not Aliens. That is important, but could be changed by a future law, and with the current HS, could well change if she takes a dislike to some Irish neighbours.

So under a UI, would this change?
Well, the De Souza case shows how anti Irish the current Home Office is, so I would expect it to - but there are a large number of people with Irish ancestors and who identify as Irish or at least pro-Irish.

Would a withdrawal agreement not provide for continuation of the CTA even if we joined Schengen?
It could and would be popular with most people living in Ireland, and probably with most people living in GB. So it probably would.

How would this work with Schengen?
Well, anyone who lives in the UK and wants to benefit from the CTA would probably have to register onto the Schengen database - probably by way of a visa, or something similar, but the main benefit of the CTA is free movement. However, there could be unsurmountable problems. The UK would need to go some way to support it.

Given the choice between CTA or Schengen, which way would a UI jump?

I would think Schengen, with a lot of reluctance.