Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

trellheim

I see the argument Sam

Might I correct your first sentence ... its UK law not GB law. Also if we went into Schengen and UK didnt (pre-UI) we'd have really difficult questions like Frontex, the EU border control agency, controlling our borders.

My own view is that in a UI the agreement for a UI would provide for a permanent CTA.

As EU citizens outside Schengen all we need is a passport check to get into the Schengen Area, because we are already from and in the EU, we have all the economic benefits already.

breezy1985

Oafley Jones wrote: »

Forget about holidays, food affordability is going to be their main concern.

I was more talking about people on the 20-24k wage. I don't think that are gonna starve the amount of affordable luxuries will plummet

mrunsure

ambro25 wrote: »

Very easy, subject to the job.

They only want high-capacity professional types. But then, they'll fold themselves 4-ways to attract and then keep them. Used to be banking/finance only, these days it's also insurance/re-insurance, fintech, bio/med, comms/electronics (space/sats tech), and basically any good STEM (Uni on huge drive to rise in global rankings).

Hence around 50% of the resident population is foreign-born, and that is a highly-heterogenous 50%, not "mainly French, Begians and Germans". That stat shoots up to 60-ish% percent daytime, between morning and evening rush hour. Because with real-estate north of €8k per square meter (>12k in Lux city) and appreciating north of 11% per annum, living in France, Belgium or Germany next door is kinda necessary for manytrellheim), the commute is a proper nightmare (easily on par with Dublin). It's just cheaper.

Back in late 2017 when I was considering Brexoding options (cumulatively, in UK 20 years here), I had opportunities in Amsterdam, Lux & Munich. I plumped for Lux mostly because it'd be the easiest landing spot for UK Mrs & early teens kid, and likely the most pragmatic/helpful for us re.whatever Brexit would end up throwing our EU-UK family way.

If indeed so many jobs use English in the office, you would have thought that Irish/British/American etc. people would have an advantage in having native levels of English proficiency. Free public transport is another little benefit, although it wasn't expensive before.

CelticRambler

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I tried doing some googling about moving to France and everything seemed to indicate that a non-French speaker would be fortunate to even get a job, never mind cope with day-to-day bureaucracy.

Ah, don't believe everything you find after a bit of googling! :pac:

Day-to-day bureaucracy is easy enough to navigate once you understand that it's all about ticking boxes. And not only is fluent English a requirement for some jobs, regardless of your nationality, (e.g. in the aerospace tech zone up the road from me), earlier this year I was offered a job - by a French woman, in her French business - explicitly because I was not French!

Thanks to Freedom of Movement, and various reforms and updates to national legislation in recent years, if you have a standalone idea that can keep you in pocket money or more, it's incredibly easy to get yourself set up. When doing just that for myself, back in the day, the internet warned me that the whole process could take several months; it took less than 15 minutes, start to finish. :cool:

Sam Russell

trellheim wrote: »

I see the argument Sam

Might I correct your first sentence ... its UK law not GB law. Also if we went into Schengen and UK didnt (pre-UI) we'd have really difficult questions like Frontex, the EU border control agency, controlling our borders.

My own view is that in a UI the agreement for a UI would provide for a permanent CTA.

As EU citizens outside Schengen all we need is a passport check to get into the Schengen Area, because we are already from and in the EU, we have all the economic benefits already.

We cannot join Schengen if there is not a UI or the UK does not join. It would require a border on the Island, or passport checks between the two islands. I was talking post a UI.

As for the difference between UK and British Law - well that is semantics. There is English Law for England and Wales, Scottish Law for Scotland and NI Law for NI. There is no single law for the UK - some laws apply to the whole of the UK, some for each 'Nation'. The Supreme Court sits in England, but acts as the Supreme Court for each of the laws - English Scottish and NI.

There are two separate questions - would the CTA survive a UI? I think YES.
And would the CTA survive (a United) Ireland joining Schengen? I think probably not, but possibly. It would depend on the UK co-operating with security infrastructure within the Schengen system. Would they?

J Mysterio

breezy1985 wrote: »

Given that the average wage is a lot lower in the UK this is going really hit home with lower income people the next time they try take a holiday

There will be no holidays for many, other than maybe Brighton or Blackpool.

It's not a case of 'no holiday this year', it's a case of, I've lost my job and can't afford my mortgage. Things are already bad, they will be a lot worse.

ancapailldorcha

CelticRambler wrote: »

Ah, don't believe everything you find after a bit of googling! :pac:

Day-to-day bureaucracy is easy enough to navigate once you understand that it's all about ticking boxes. And not only is fluent English a requirement for some jobs, regardless of your nationality, (e.g. in the aerospace tech zone up the road from me), earlier this year I was offered a job - by a French woman, in her French business - explicitly because I was not French!

Thanks to Freedom of Movement, and various reforms and updates to national legislation in recent years, if you have a standalone idea that can keep you in pocket money or more, it's incredibly easy to get yourself set up. When doing just that for myself, back in the day, the internet warned me that the whole process could take several months; it took less than 15 minutes, start to finish. :cool:

Unfortunately, the bit of googling is all I really have to go on. I know one chap living in Paris who's managing but he's in a company that conducts its business in English. Again, he's in sector where English really is mandatory and he's struggled because the staff often speak in French regardless and he feels that he can't ask them to speak English because in fairness it is their country and their national language.

Most of the job specs I've seen in the Netherlands demanded fluency in Dutch and English but I might see if I can find an agency or two and upload my CV anyway.

ancapailldorcha

peter kern wrote: »

if you have lived more than 5 years in uk you can apply for permanent residence .

besides you would get a visa with the point system since surely you earn more than 25000 pounds and they need scientists .

so CTA should have no effect on yourself.

I've been here going on a decade now so, aside from the obscene cost of just over 1,200 quid, I don't know if I'm that bothered. I feel like if it really comes to that then whatever fondness remains in me for this nation will have all been eradicated at that point.

It's a fair point though. For now, I have a job with a decent period left on my contract and a valid EU passport so I've less cause than some to worry.

ambro25

mrunsure wrote: »

If indeed so many jobs use English in the office, you would have thought that Irish/British/American etc. people would have an advantage in having native levels of English proficiency. Free public transport is another little benefit, although it wasn't expensive before.

You appear to assume there, that other nationalities are not capable of matching Irish/British/American (native) proficiency in English?

That's a dangerous assumption.

Especially in a country with constitutional multilinguism, wherein every native speaks and writes a minimum of 4 languages (Lux, French, German, English), very many of them 5 (typically Italian or Portuguese)...and all of fluently.

If you have professional skills, that doesn't matter so much, everyone speaks and writes in English in the local business ecosystem. But don't bother applying for a receptionist or civil service job (e.g.)

murphaph

Germany should be an option. I have worked with countless people who couldn't speak a word of German here. For an EU citizen there's not much bureaucracy to navigate really and once you're set up that's it and you'll learn the language in your own time. It's not that hard of a language really.

ilovesmybrick

murphaph wrote: »

Germany should be an option. I have worked with countless people who couldn't speak a word of German here. For an EU citizen there's not much bureaucracy to navigate really and once you're set up that's it and you'll learn the language in your own time. It's not that hard of a language really.

Yeah, I have to say (though Austria rather than Germany) after a few years I have a basic understanding of German, but actually it can be harder to speak German than English since when I muddle through with my German people in general switch over to English. Though I do find it a lot easier in Germany as Austrian German can be a bit...difficult!

Back onto the topic at hand though, it is quite interesting how little Brexit is featuring in the Austrian news at the moment. Looking at the Austrian papers you really have to hunt down some coverage. That kind of apathy is presumably not just an Austrian phenomenon, and something the UK should really be concerned with. Yes, it is important to Ireland, France, Germany, Belgium etc., but there are an awful lot of countries in the EU that have little trade or ties to the UK.

Strazdas

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Brexit is about tax avoidance and wealth management expressed as “sovereignty”. Everything flows from that.

Yes, but the millions of followers are not in on the scam. They think it's about immigration and 'controlling our borders and laws'. They don't seem aware they are being used to the max by the Brexit elite and the media billionaires.

tanko

J Mysterio wrote: »

There will be no holidays for many, other than maybe Brighton or Blackpool.

It's not a case of 'no holiday this year', it's a case of, I've lost my job and can't afford my mortgage. Things are already bad, they will be a lot worse.

It's interesting that the BBC haven't got a reporter at the gates of the Honda car plant in Swindon which has stopped production because they can't get materials in to make cars.

They had no problem interviewing workers outside a car plant in Sunderand who had voted for Brexit and thought it was a great idea. I wonder what those lads think now.

ancapailldorcha

tanko wrote: »

It's interesting that the BBC haven't got a reporter at the gates of the Honda car plant in Swindon which has stopped production because they can't get materials in to make cars.

They had no problem interviewing workers outside a car plant in Sunderand who had voted for Brexit and thought it was a great idea. I wonder what those lads think now.

I see no reason to think that they've changed their minds. The red wall only fell a year ago.

Kermit.de.frog

Irish Times reporting that EU officials will be able to, at any time and without any prior notice, inspect the work being undertaken to enforce the customs border in the Irish sea at ports.

Also reporting that supermarkets will have "a few months" to shift their supply chains away from the GB market before more onerous inspections are introduced.

So the UK govt appears to have won some grace periods although the end destination does not appear to have changed one iota. Except perhaps on export declarations at the border.

RobMc59

tanko wrote: »

It's interesting that the BBC haven't got a reporter at the gates of the Honda car plant in Swindon which has stopped production because they can't get materials in to make cars.

They had no problem interviewing workers outside a car plant in Sunderand who had voted for Brexit and thought it was a great idea. I wonder what those lads think now.

Honda isn't unique in stopping production towards the end of December due to brexit uncertainties.The company I work for is doing this and in addition it has also started sourcing raw materials from the US rather than the usual european suppliers.

Enzokk

RobMc59 wrote: »

Honda isn't unique in stopping production towards the end of December due to brexit uncertainties.The company I work for is doing this and in addition it has also started sourcing raw materials from the US rather than the usual european suppliers.

How is the 9th December all of a sudden towards the end of December? They have had to suspend manufacturing because of delays at ports because companies are beginning to stockpile ahead of Brexit. This is happening before you have even left the transition period. If this is happening now there is very little chance any company operating on JIT manufacturing will be able to continue after 1 January if more delays are expected due to the deal, or no deal, the UK has with the EU.

Honda suspends production at UK plant due to transport delays

Honda has suspended production at its UK car plant after transport-related delays to the delivery of parts.

The Japanese car maker told workers that it would have to pause work on Wednesday, but would restart as soon as possible.

...

Ports have already been reporting congestion in recent weeks, partly caused by companies wishing to stock up on goods before the Brexit transition period ends on 31 December.

An Ciarraioch

It seems that despite the UK-Norwegian fisheries agreement, the two countries failed to come to terms on quotas, with the result that a supertrawler in Hull has no legal basis to fish for cod:

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/12/08/britains-cod-awful-fishing-fiasco-as-52-million-trawler-sits-idle/

RobMc59

Enzokk wrote: »

How is the 9th December all of a sudden towards the end of December? They have had to suspend manufacturing because of delays at ports because companies are beginning to stockpile ahead of Brexit. This is happening before you have even left the transition period. If this is happening now there is very little chance any company operating on JIT manufacturing will be able to continue after 1 January if more delays are expected due to the deal, or no deal, the UK has with the EU.

Honda suspends production at UK plant due to transport delays

So what are you querying about my post exactly?Companies here in the UK are suspending production this month due to brexit uncertainties,that's prudent in the event of no deal imo.
My reference to the end of the month was in relation to the company I work for.
I also understand the demands of the UK government are unobtainable,if the EU allowed this it would probably be the catalyst for further countries wanting to leave.

Enzokk

RobMc59 wrote: »

So what are you querying about my post exactly?Companies here in the UK are suspending production this month due to brexit uncertainties,that's prudent in the event of no deal imo.
My reference to the end of the month was in relation to the company I work for.
I also understand the demands of the UK government are unobtainable,if the EU allowed this it would probably be the catalyst for further countries wanting to leave.

You quoted a post that referenced the unplanned stoppage at Honda and you are talking about how your company is planning things this month. They have nothing to do with each other other than there is a stoppage. This is like saying a paper cut and gunshot are the same because you bleed from both.

breezy1985

J Mysterio wrote: »

There will be no holidays for many, other than maybe Brighton or Blackpool.

It's not a case of 'no holiday this year', it's a case of, I've lost my job and can't afford my mortgage. Things are already bad, they will be a lot worse.

I was living in London so no one was too worried about mortgages : )

ancapailldorcha

No insults please. A post has been removed.

All_in_Flynn

What are peoples thoughts on how well/poor the UK are likely to do economically if they manage to squeeze something out tonight and get a deal? Obviously this will be reliant on what they actually manage to agree on.

I just cannot understand how the EU will allow any type of deal that is not going to result in the UK suffering for exiting the bloc.

In a very selfish way, I'd nearly wish for no deal for them at this point. I do have lots of friends living in UK though and feel sorry if they have to stare down the barrel of no deal.

A Dub in Glasgo

Just finished work and spent sometime catching up on this thread. I have got to say, the Tony Connelly updates on Twitter are superb in explaining the latest... well done RTE/TC

Shelga

So we may not know if there’s a deal tonight, and this could drag on until the 31st?

Infini

Shelga wrote: »

So we may not know if there’s a deal tonight, and this could drag on until the 31st?

No if there's no deal in the next 24hr's its No Deal for certain, EU will impliment contingencies if the UK don't agree as time will have run out to impliment one this side of New Years.

Strazdas

Shelga wrote: »

So we may not know if there’s a deal tonight, and this could drag on until the 31st?

The Guardian's take is not to expect anything dramatic tonight. They reckon that if Johnson has settled on No Deal, he may decide not to reveal this yet and to drag things out even further.

Even a so called 'breakthrough' tonight is something to be wary of. Nobody can really know what Johnson is up to and if he's just posturing.

ancapailldorcha

Shelga wrote: »

So we may not know if there’s a deal tonight, and this could drag on until the 31st?

I don't think so. It needs to be translated and ratified by the European assemblies and this is assuming that a deal is even made.

Winters

Shelga wrote: »

So we may not know if there’s a deal tonight, and this could drag on until the 31st?

Going by his comments in the House of Commons earlier he has might find his dinner date hard to please.

Detritus70

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think so. It needs to be translated and ratified by the European assemblies and this is assuming that a deal is even made.

Is a majority enough to ratify the deal, or does it have to be unanimous?