Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

Detritus70 wrote: »

Is a majority enough to ratify the deal, or does it have to be unanimous?

It has to be unanimous hence the unease of the French prevaricating over fish. All national legislatures and some regional ones must ratify the deal.

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It has to be unanimous hence the unease of the French prevaricating over fish. All national legislatures and some regional ones must ratify the deal.

Plus the European Parliament - much trickier.

Brussels Sprout

It really is farcical that there are businesses, whose livelihood is dependent on trade with the UK, who still don't know exactly what the rules are going to be in just 23 days time.

listermint

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

It really is farcical that there are businesses, whose livelihood is dependent on trade with the UK, who still don't know exactly what the rules are going to be in just 23 days time.

Indeed.

However perhaps they could have really explained this to their staff with actual facts and numbers related to their business.

We probably wouldn't be where we are now

trellheim

It really is farcical that there are businesses, whose livelihood is dependent on trade with the UK, who still don't know exactly what the rules are going to be in just 23 days time.

this is in no way's the EU's fault, the UK are locked to the idea maximum concessions can only be extracted at the last minute.

paul71

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think so. It needs to be translated and ratified by the European assemblies and this is assuming that a deal is even made.

I am also concerned that Poland and Hungry could have a hissy fit and decide to drag up the rule of law clauses in the EU budget as negotiation points for their approval.

beggars_bush

What everyday products are likely to increase in price in a no deal scenario?

Lumen

listermint wrote: »

Indeed.

However perhaps they could have really explained this to their staff with actual facts and numbers related to their business.

We probably wouldn't be where we are now

"Businesses whose livelihood is dependent on trade with the UK" should have "really explained this to their staff with actual facts and numbers related to their business"?

What are you on about? Are you blaming Irish employers for Brexit?

looksee

Well there will be all the stuff that attracts increased transportation/ tariffs type costs then there will be all the stuff that doesn't really attract any costs but the suppliers say they do. And the stuff that goes up because, well, why not?

ancapailldorcha

paul71 wrote: »

I am also concerned that Poland and Hungry could have a hissy fit and decide to drag up the rule of law clauses in the EU budget as negotiation points for their approval.

I don't think this is likely. They won't want to waste capital on this when they need the other states to agree to their demands for the rule of law clauses. Things are already tense enough on that front.

Sam Russell

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Cleaning products and the highly unhealthy processed foods seem to originate in UK

Anyways on Rte they mentioned that revenue clarified that no duties or vat on orders under 22euro. No duties but yes on vat on 22 to 150 euro purchases, full vat and duty above.

Which is not too bad especially as likes of amazon UK shouldn't go charging vat.

I think that is only until July. After that VAT will be payable on the whole value irrespective of the value and will be collected.

https://www.revenue.ie/en/importing-vehicles-duty-free-allowances/buying-of-goods-online-for-personal-use/buying-goods-from-outside-the-eu.aspx

Worth checking out.

fly_agaric

paul71 wrote: »

I am also concerned that Poland and Hungry could have a hissy fit and decide to drag up the rule of law clauses in the EU budget as negotiation points for their approval.

I don't think they have as much leverage as they believe they have. If they don't sign up to the budget, I think they could end up being bypassed.
IMO it is an overreach by 2 nationalist/populist governments who've been in power far too long now & started to believe the bullshít they sell their supporters.

They will (I assume) have their EU funds reduced if they push it to the point of the others going around them because they won't be part of the new budget programme. These 2 countries have less leverage than the UK ever did over the budget because they are not net contributors yet.

They are in a cleft stick here. The governments certainly don't want to leave the EU (money), but yet they want to block all changes to the EU that might damage/threaten their powerbase. They also very afraid of being left out by other countries in further development of a core/fringe EU due to their obstructionism! They can't achieve all of those objectives and something has to give eventually.

Sierra Oscar

No comments from either Johnson or von der Leyen as they were going into their meeting. Body language is poor. I don't think there will be any agreement reached tonight.

Sam Russell

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Cleaning products and the highly unhealthy processed foods seem to originate in UK

The cleaning products will be available from the EU unless you believe they do not use any - but of course they do. Supermarkets, like Tesco just ship local (to the UK) products here because it is easy - just add a few boxes for Ireland.

The unhealthy food does originate from the UK (well not all of it - we make some here) but again, I think some comes from EU as well.

Why do we import yoghurt from the UK? Surely it is made here - or should be.

There are other foods that we need to sort out as well. That will probably happen. European chocolate is much nicer - particularly Swiss and Belgian. European cheese is better as well, but we make an awful lot of cheddar.

Flour is a problem, but we can be solved, but we might have to stop making Chorleywood bread. That would be no harm.

Hopefully we will all be healthier as a result.

A Dub in Glasgo

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Just finished work and spent sometime catching up on this thread. I have got to say, the Tony Connelly updates on Twitter are superb in explaining the latest... well done RTE/TC

Decent chance he's the only person who has become 'more famous' due to Brexit in a positive way.

Sam Russell

Deleted User wrote: »

Decent chance he's the only person who has become 'more famous' due to Brexit in a positive way.

I would give a shout out for Michel Barnier. Also someone who has come out of this in a positive way - certainly from an Irish viewpoint.

listermint

Lumen wrote: »

"Businesses whose livelihood is dependent on trade with the UK" should have "really explained this to their staff with actual facts and numbers related to their business"?

What are you on about? Are you blaming Irish employers for Brexit?

Thought he said trade from the UK.

FrancieBrady

Are we likely to hear an outcome tonight or will it be vague - more talks etc etc?

Sierra Oscar

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Are we likely to hear an outcome tonight or will it be vague - more talks etc etc?

I'd imagine we will an an agreement to keep talking tonight and that's about it.

ilovesmybrick

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Are we likely to hear an outcome tonight or will it be vague - more talks etc etc?

Honestly, unless Boris comes out and says "No more talks" the EU will just keep going and say they will keep discussing the issues. At this stage the main thing for everyone seems to be to make sure no deal isn't placed on their heads.

Sierra Oscar

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Honestly, unless Boris comes out and says "No more talks" the EU will just keep going and say they will keep discussing the issues. At this stage the main thing for everyone seems to be to make sure no deal isn't placed on their heads.

Yeah at this stage I don't really envisage a day in the near future whereby the talks just end and we have a no deal. They'll clearly just keep talking right up until January 1st.

I mean we've learned today that the Commission is actively preparing and implementing it's no deal contingency plans. As things currently stand a no deal is unfolding. Don't expect a 'big bang' moment where a no deal is announced at a specific time and date in advance of January 1st.

Jizique

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Are we likely to hear an outcome tonight or will it be vague - more talks etc etc?

Reality is that they will be talking forever; there will always be something; no matter what kind of agreement is reached or not reached, there will always be something further to discuss, even if the tories would like to believe they will never have to discuss anything with Brussels after the end of the month

Enzokk

paul71 wrote: »

I am also concerned that Poland and Hungry could have a hissy fit and decide to drag up the rule of law clauses in the EU budget as negotiation points for their approval.

Maybe if Poland and Hungary were net contributors to the EU budget would their threats hold any water. The fact that Poland receives the most from the EU makes their threats hollow. Hungary still received more than 2 billion euros than they paid into the EU budget in 2017. Those countries threats are empty and they will not only incur the wrath from the net contributors but also the countries that are fellow beneficiaries.

Add in those countries that are looking towards the Covid funds, well basically this is just supposed strong men flexing their muscles but they will whimper away once the adults in the room stand up.

Patser

Not sure how linked this is to Brexit, it seems to be excused as a Covid reaction, but hard not to see a brexit dimension.

But UK Dept if Transport is relaxing the European Driving hour regulations to assist with uncertainty regarding freight transport. So Yay, drivers now can work longer hours, with fewer breaks and disregard regulations brought in for road safety

https://twitter.com/RHARodMcKenzie/status/1336727215522914304

Spanish Eyes

If a deal is eventually agreed, I hope we can trust the UK to abide by it.

Enzokk

Patser wrote: »

Not sure how linked this is to Brexit, it seems to be excused as a Covid reaction, but hard not to see a brexit dimension.

But UK Dept if Transport is relaxing the European Driving hour regulations to assist with uncertainty regarding freight transport. So Yay, drivers now can work longer hours, with fewer breaks and disregard regulations brought in for road safety

https://twitter.com/RHARodMcKenzie/status/1336727215522914304

This is for all those Labour Brexiters out there, thinking outside the EU they could have a socialist utopia when in reality it is going to be their worst nightmare. They are just behind the DUP in the most idiotic Brexit supporters out there with nothing in it for them other than some unrealistic future.

Capt'n Midnight

Patser wrote: »

Not sure how linked this is to Brexit, it seems to be excused as a Covid reaction, but hard not to see a brexit dimension.

But UK Dept if Transport is relaxing the European Driving hour regulations to assist with uncertainty regarding freight transport. So Yay, drivers now can work longer hours, with fewer breaks and disregard regulations brought in for road safety

twitter.com/RHARodMcKenzie/status/1336727215522914304

Ah yes , the "freedom" to work longer hours.

Pesky EU Working Time Directive holding back low paid workers.

Be dead easy agreeing to a Level Playing Field if they are already announcing this.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/temporary-relaxation-of-the-enforcement-of-the-drivers-hours-rules-all-sectors-carriage-of-goods-by-road/temporary-relaxation-of-the-enforcement-of-the-eu-and-gb-drivers-hours-rules-all-sectors-carriage-of-goods-by-road

This temporary relaxation will apply from 12:01am on 10 December 2020 and will run until 11:59pm on 30 December 2020.

MBSnr

Ironically having left the EU they can't travel there after 1st Jan...

Most Britons will be barred from visiting EU countries from January 1 when pandemic safety rules that allow free travel within the bloc stop applying to the UK.

The end of the Brexit transition period means that the UK will be subject to a system that only allows non-essential travel from a handful of non-EU countries with low coronavirus infection rates, the European Commission said.


https://www.ft.com/content/43a5b078-9102-4972-b5a8-b52a0081fb94

Google "Most Britons face bar from visiting EU under Covid safety rules"

ByTheSea2019

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Don't expect a 'big bang' moment where a no deal is announced at a specific time and date in advance of January 1st.

I agree but I think it's unfair to businesses. There are three weeks left and one of them is Christmas. It's time to be honest with them and tell them what they are preparing for.

FrancieBrady

ByTheSea2019 wrote: »

I agree but I think it's unfair to businesses. There are three weeks left and one of them is Christmas. It's time to be honest with them and tell them what they are preparing for.

It sounds completely wrong to leave business hanging just so politicians, who have failed, can save face and not have to take the blame.