Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

RobMc59

Speculating on the outcome of the meeting is fine but has the thought crossed anyone's mind any proposals/agreement this evening would have to be looked at by the EU nations and UK government and until such times as this happens both parties may have agreed to say nothing to the media.

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

Speculating on the outcome of the meeting is fine but has the thought crossed anyone's mind any proposals/agreement this evening would have to be looked at by the EU nations and UK government and until such times as this happens both parties may have agreed to say nothing to the media.

Possibly. I'm personally of the opinion that whatever the state of play is at the end of the month, that will be that. Anything before that is just speculation and since we've been doing that for literally years at this point, I think I'm ready to just wait out the few weeks.

Frank Bullitt

cameramonkey

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think it's more brinkmanship but von der Leyen won't be biting. The British will have to compromise or have no deal. No deal represents failure politically for Johnson. If it didn't, he'd have proudly walked away. He's still going back for more for a reason.

It is totally brinkmanship by the Brits. If they wanted no deal they could have pulled the plug anytime over the last few months claiming the UK was not playing fair and were attacking the idea of Brexit and UK sovereignty. The UK will accept EU proposal either before the deadline or sometime next year, they are up **** creek without a paddle and they know it. The EU will throw them a win on a few flounder and haddock and the Brits will claim a Dunkirk moment.

Bigus

From the EU statement above.

We gained a clear understanding of each other’s positions.(gap) They remain far apart.

If your partner said above to you you’d know you were pi55ing in the wind unless you were prepared to totally capitulat, or in Irish speak..... feck off and leave me alone there’s no chance.

joeysoap

The deadline keeps extending toward 1/1.


We did mid mid November disappear to?

Professor Moriarty

Status quo remains. Just waiting for the clock to run out now. Main course must have been a nothingburger.

Patser

It all makes Johnson's trip so confusing - this was billed as the big make or break moment l, either for him to emerge as the master negotiator that secured a great deal, or the defiant leader that stood up to bullying EU.

To scurry off home, with another 'we'll keep talking even though out leaders who set the red lines have changed nothing announcement seems so anticlimactic for a showman like Johnson.

What was the whole point of the trip? What will change in the negotiations over next few days, that couldn't be decided tonight..

snowstorm445

Gintonious wrote: »

"Until the deadline gets extended again... and again"

At least there's a theoretical hard end-date to all of this instead of the endless protracted drama with the Withdrawal Agreement.

Strazdas

This the first hard deadline this year, where they've said a decision by that date or the talks end.

All other deadlines were notional ones.

Spanish Eyes

Patser wrote: »

It all makes Johnson's trip so confusing - this was billed as the big make or break moment l, either for him to emerge as the master negotiator that secured a great deal, or the defiant leader that stood up to bullying EU.

To scurry off home, with another 'we'll keep talking even though out leaders who set the red lines have changed nothing announcement seems so anticlimactic for a showman like Johnson.

What was the whole point of the trip? What will change in the negotiations over next few days, that couldn't be decided tonight..

Ridiculous now. Johnson just wanted Foie Gras with VDL.

I hope she has the last laugh. But am guessing the deal has been done, and will be announced very soon, so people can enjoy their Christmas Dinner.

Honestly.If there is NO DEAL, let Johnson at it. We will survive, we have survived worse really.

J Mysterio

Patser wrote: »

It all makes Johnson's trip so confusing - this was billed as the big make or break moment l, either for him to emerge as the master negotiator that secured a great deal, or the defiant leader that stood up to bullying EU.

To scurry off home, with another 'we'll keep talking even though out leaders who set the red lines have changed nothing announcement seems so anticlimactic for a showman like Johnson.

What was the whole point of the trip? What will change in the negotiations over next few days, that couldn't be decided tonight..

He's a complete bluffer. He thought something might just happen if he showed up? A complete farce.

BonnieSituation

J Mysterio wrote: »

He's a complete bluffer. He thought something might just happen if he showed up? A complete farce.

He obviously didn't show up with the correct level of vim and vigour.

bobmalooka

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1336789203603116034

Serious delusion from this donkey. Right up until the last minute, they still spout this crap

There is something captured in this clip which I have noticed almost consistently throughout the last 4+ years of brexit drama - English people attach a ridiculously huge weighting to internal British issues and assume that this weighting, for some reason carries throughout the world.

For some reason the Tory majority and mandate offered to Johnson equates to other countries having to obey - with such a worldview how did they ever feel their sovereignty was impaired

Leroy42

J Mysterio wrote: »

He's a complete bluffer. He thought something might just happen if he showed up? A complete farce.

I think that might be the reality. He thought he could use his charm and banter to get movement, but VdL is actually pretty constrained in what she can do.

And when faced with option B, walk away, he couldn't do it. He knows the impact, both economically and politically of no deal, and whilst he would be confident he could sell it initially he knows its a world of pain and chaos.

Disaster of a trip from his POV

Akrasia

Patser wrote: »

It all makes Johnson's trip so confusing - this was billed as the big make or break moment l, either for him to emerge as the master negotiator that secured a great deal, or the defiant leader that stood up to bullying EU.

To scurry off home, with another 'we'll keep talking even though out leaders who set the red lines have changed nothing announcement seems so anticlimactic for a showman like Johnson.

What was the whole point of the trip? What will change in the negotiations over next few days, that couldn't be decided tonight..

Johnson’s trip is valuable to him in these ways

1. Not going would look like he abdicated responsibility
2. He probably believes some of his own hype, that he’s smart and charismatic enough to trick others into acting against their own interests (it’s worked for him so far)
3. He can spin the negotiations to suit his own narrative. He can say the EU tried to steal UK sovereignty
4. He likes to be the center of attention
5. He can use this as an opportunity to delay the no deal announcement so that it gets pushed into the Xmas silly season
6. He might actually secure some useful concessions/partial delays to reduce the crunch impact of a no deal on 1st jan

Headshot

EU and Boris have agreed up extend talks to Sunday. I fail to see what's the point? If you're not going to agree by Wednesday what's the point of 4 extra days.

I found it fascinating at first but now I've grown weary and want to see the back of BJ and his horrible party. The anarchist in me wants them to crash out and BJ and his cronies will have a lot to answer for

IamtheWalrus

They wouldn’t have agreed to 4 more days if both sides didn’t think a deal could happen. I’d say this dinner will have clarified positions on both sides, leading to compromise.

screamer

IamtheWalrus wrote: »

They wouldn’t have agreed to 4 more days if both sides didn’t think a deal could happen. I’d say this dinner will have clarified positions on both sides, leading to compromise.

its all for show, chicken on the world stage. there will be no deal, it's inevitable at this stage, so off with them, sick to death of brexit, even more than covid.....

Peregrinus

Strazdas wrote: »

This the first hard deadline this year, where they've said a decision by that date or the talks end.

All other deadlines were notional ones.

They haven't said that. They've said that they'll take a decision on Sunday about the future of the talks. Which leaves open the possibility that the talks will continue after Sunday. Or that they'll take a break over Christmas and resume in the New Year. (which obviously means resuming in a different context - but some on the EU side might quite like that). Or whatever.

The UK/EU relationship is always going to be a live issue of considerable importance to both parties. And it's always going to be a somewhat volatile issue until the relationship settles down into something stable. And it won't b stable until it's a relationship on terms that are acceptable to a broad consensus on both sides. And since 2016 the UK government has not sought at all to develop a consensus in support any kind of EU relationship - quite the opposite; they have been sectarian and oppositional. And perhaps this is the general tendency of the UK political system.

Regardless of what happens on Sunday, people, this one seems likely to run and run.

Tell me how

Headshot wrote: »

EU and Boris have agreed up extend talks to Sunday. I fail to see what's the point? If you're not going to agree by Wednesday what's the point of 4 extra days.

I found it fascinating at first but now I've grown weary and want to see the back of BJ and his horrible party. The anarchist in me wants them to crash out and BJ and his cronies will have a lot to answer for

But they won't though. Far from it.

Already we see no shortage of Brexiteer commentators, well known and anonymous online ones saying this is all down to EU belligerence in not not negotiating in good faith.

Look at Trump, 4 years of lies, anti-diplomacy, staff walkouts, complete incompetence in the role of President. And then is monumental mismanagement of Covid and BLM protests and yet 74M people wished he was continuing as President.

Too many people, everywhere, are more focused on their hatred of one ideal rather than love for another. Many will continue to support Brexit rather than accept that liberal minded remainers were right and that it is going to be a disaster.

Peregrinus

bobmalooka wrote: »

There is something captured in this clip which I have noticed almost consistently throughout the last 4+ years of brexit drama - English people attach a ridiculously huge weighting to internal British issues and assume that this weighting, for some reason carries throughout the world.

For some reason the Tory majority and mandate offered to Johnson equates to other countries having to obey - with such a worldview how did they ever feel their sovereignty was impaired

This.

Brexiters bang on about sovereignty but seem to have little understanding of, and to have given no thought to, what it means.

The UK is an internationally-recognised sovereign state. This means, among other things, that how it makes its decisions its entirely its own affair. Was the Brexit decision made by a referendum? By a vote in Parliament? By a capricious whim of the monarch one afternoon after drinking more gin than was wise? We literally do not care. This is not our business. We deal with the UK; the UK has given notice of withdrawal under Article 50; the effect and consequences of that notice do not depend in the smallest degree on the internal process by which the UK came to give it. Thse matters interest nobody outside the UK; they are wholly the UK's business, and nobody else's. So shut up about your 80-seat majority and your turnout at your referendum; they mean nothing once you get more than 12 miles from the UK coast.

Peregrinus

ByTheSea2019 wrote: »

I agree but I think it's unfair to businesses. There are three weeks left and one of them is Christmas. It's time to be honest with them and tell them what they are preparing for.

Chaos. They're preparing for chaos. And the truth is that they have known this for some time now.

Strazdas

bobmalooka wrote: »

There is something captured in this clip which I have noticed almost consistently throughout the last 4+ years of brexit drama - English people attach a ridiculously huge weighting to internal British issues and assume that this weighting, for some reason carries throughout the world.

For some reason the Tory majority and mandate offered to Johnson equates to other countries having to obey - with such a worldview how did they ever feel their sovereignty was impaired

The whole British sovereignty argument is a very strange thing. It seems to be firmly rooted in xenophobia and toxic right wing English nationalism. Why would a country which has been independent for over 1000 years and hasn't been invaded for centuries be overly bothered about how 'sovereign' it is?

fash

Peregrinus wrote: »

Regardless of what happens on Sunday, people, this one seems likely to run and run.

I wonder if Johnson wants "no deal" to start biting (and resulting in people speaking out) in the UK before reaching an agreement. That might give him some space to push back against the Brexiters.

ElJeffe

opinionated3 wrote: »

I honestly don't believe he went there with any intention of getting a deal. We are in a situation now where optics are king.......

Of course he doesn't want a deal. Why are so many people only waking up to this now?

Enzokk

fash wrote: »

I wonder if Johnson wants "no deal" to start biting (and resulting in people speaking out) in the UK before reaching an agreement. That might give him some space to push back against the Brexiters.

He is one of the Brexiters though. He has been against Europe for most of his life by all accounts. His parents marriage fell apart while they were in Brussels when his father was an MEP. That was the start of why he personally is so antagonistic towards the EU, not because he doesn't agree with the project, but because his father and mother's marriage broke up during that time.

Enzokk

Peregrinus wrote: »

They haven't said that. They've said that they'll take a decision on Sunday about the future of the talks. Which leaves open the possibility that the talks will continue after Sunday. Or that they'll take a break over Christmas and resume in the New Year. (which obviously means resuming in a different context - but some on the EU side might quite like that). Or whatever.

The UK/EU relationship is always going to be a live issue of considerable importance to both parties. And it's always going to be a somewhat volatile issue until the relationship settles down into something stable. And it won't b stable until it's a relationship on terms that are acceptable to a broad consensus on both sides. And since 2016 the UK government has not sought at all to develop a consensus in support any kind of EU relationship - quite the opposite; they have been sectarian and oppositional. And perhaps this is the general tendency of the UK political system.

Regardless of what happens on Sunday, people, this one seems likely to run and run.

Well even if a deal is reached the talks will always continue in some way because the UK is so close geographically to the EU. If a new government is elected they would rethink their relationship with the EU so new talks would start, so this is going to go on forever and ever until they rejoin.

What I would say is that people who are normally calm about the chances of a deal and who hasn't been concerned about the talks up to yesterday started showing concern. That is what makes me think this could be getting very serious for the FTA talks and not just choreography which I would have been thinking was happening up to now.

fash

Enzokk wrote: »

He is one of the Brexiters though. He has been against Europe for most of his life by all accounts. His parents marriage fell apart while they were in Brussels when his father was an MEP. That was the start of why he personally is so antagonistic towards the EU, not because he doesn't agree with the project, but because his father and mother's marriage broke up during that time.

If he were deliberately angling for no deal, I would have expected him to have been amping things for a while at this stage. The dinner with VDL and then quietly leaving for example just looks weak: not the actions of someone deliberately aiming for no deal. (Not that a deal is achievable - but I don't read this as the aim).

Dempo1

Just amazes me the EU continue to entertain Boris, it's abundantly clear he's no interest in a deal and is more angling towards blaming the EU for a no deal.

Various Journalists continue to rant on about a possible compromise when it's obvious, Boris is playing the "I did my best" card. I've absolutely no doubt if Trump had won, we'd be seeing none of this nonsense and Boris would have walked away, weeks ago.