Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

ElJeffe

Dempo1 wrote: »

Just amazes me the EU continue to entertain Boris, it's abundantly clear he's no interest in a deal and is more angling towards blaming the EU for a no deal.

Various Journalists continue to rant on about a possible compromise when it's obvious, Boris is playing the "I did my best" card. I've absolutely no doubt if Trump had won, we'd be seeing none of this nonsense and Boris would have walked away, weeks ago.

He's playing the EU for fools at this stage and has been for some time.

Dempo1

ElJeffe wrote: »

He's playing the EU for fools at this stage and has been for some time.

At least he enjoyed a free last supper last night, Turbot and Mash no less, the Irony of fish being served, Hillarious

kalych

fash wrote: »

If he were deliberately angling for no deal, I would have expected him to have been amping things for a while at this stage. The dinner with VDL and then quietly leaving for example just looks weak: not the actions of someone deliberately aiming for no deal. (Not that a deal is achievable - but I don't read this as the aim).

It's all for the optics of it when chaos ensues in January and he will inevitably get blamed for it. He wants to deliver the No deal Brexit but also be able to say he tried to get a deal all the way until the last day, even travelled to Brussels for it.

The issue has always been about trying to please both sides: staunch no deal ERG and softer FTA Brexit proponents. Proverbial squaring the round peg.

Lumen

ElJeffe wrote: »

Of course he doesn't want a deal. Why are so many people only waking up to this now?

Trying to divine intentions is pointless because the British strategy has been to extract concessions at the last minute by making the EU believe that no deal is a viable option for them. So if it is obvious to you, that strategy is working. If it is a strategy.

Unfortunatey the "last minute" keeps shifting, which acts as a pressure valve working against brinkmanship. Thought 1 Jan was a hard date? Nope, we now have a fresh transition period for NI, which is being presented as a "grace period":

Three-month 'grace period' will mean Brexit agri-checks won't apply to foods sent to NI supermarkets
https://www.thejournal.ie/three-month-grace-period-brexit-5293745-Dec2020/

It is possible that some kind of fudge could be found to kick this into next year for GB. I don't think it's likely but I wouldn't bet against it.

Combined with all that is Boris' Churchillian-wannabe mindset. He must, in his own mind, snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. He cannot be the leader he wants without first plunging the country into a deep crisis, and the fact that this crisis is a clash with dark forces from mainland Europe makes the historical analogy even more appealing, even if the reality is that he had to manufactured the crisis himself.

Unfortunately this isn't WWII and the Americans aren't coming to bail him out.

Zubeneschamali

IamtheWalrus wrote: »

They wouldn’t have agreed to 4 more days if both sides didn’t think a deal could happen.

The EU would. The EU will still be talking to the English government in 2050.

I don't know what Johnson is up to or what he thinks this trip was for or what he hopes will happen in 3 days, and I'm not sure he does, either.

McFly85

Dempo1 wrote: »

Just amazes me the EU continue to entertain Boris, it's abundantly clear he's no interest in a deal and is more angling towards blaming the EU for a no deal.

Various Journalists continue to rant on about a possible compromise when it's obvious, Boris is playing the "I did my best" card. I've absolutely no doubt if Trump had won, we'd be seeing none of this nonsense and Boris would have walked away, weeks ago.

I think as long as Boris is willing to talk, the EU will accommodate it-what’s there to lose? They may get a deal agreed in which case it’s job done, or it might end in no deal but not for lack of interest from the EU and then they can start enacting contingencies.

I think Boris at this stage would love the EU to decide that times up, but they won’t do it as it only serves to paint the EU as a villain who wouldn’t do a deal, but the EU is far more competent than the UK realises(even after 4 years!) as it will know that in the event of no deal, there will still be talks next year and beyond-no point souring the relationship further just because the incumbent nutjobs would like to see it.

Dempo1

McFly85 wrote: »

I think as long as Boris is willing to talk, the EU will accommodate it-what’s there to lose? They may get a deal agreed in which case it’s job done, or it might end in no deal but not for lack of interest from the EU and then they can start enacting contingencies.

I think Boris at this stage would love the EU to decide that times up, but they won’t do it as it only serves to paint the EU as a villain who wouldn’t do a deal, but the EU is far more competent than the UK realises(even after 4 years!) as it will know that in the event of no deal, there will still be talks next year and beyond-no point souring the relationship further just because the incumbent nutjobs would like to see it.

I do agree but loss of Dignity, used to stand for something. If its really got to a stage we're both sides are worried about being perceived as the villan, I truly dispair. If and it's still an if, no deal reached, I suspect both sides might actually be better served preparing for the inevitable. If we are to believe some reporting, neither side actually prepared for the utter chaos expected.

Leroy42

ElJeffe wrote: »

He's playing the EU for fools at this stage and has been for some time.

The EU are losing nothing in this. They extended the transition from 2 to 4 years which is a win since they would prefer nothing changed.

They got the WA, such a win that Johnson, the very person who agreed it, was willing to be seen to attempt to break international law to get out if it.

The transition ends on 31st December. Continuing to talk is pretty cheap so it is harming no one.

Last night was a PR disaster for Johnson. What was hoped as the big event, Johnson to get VdL to agree to UK demands, ended up with him returning home with nothing.

Not only that but he agreed to more talks!

When LauraK is calling it a disaster you know it was particularly bad.

McFly85

Dempo1 wrote: »

I do agree but loss of Dignity, used to stand for something. If its really got to a stage we're both sides are worried about being perceived as the villan, I truly dispair. If and it's still an if, no deal reached, I suspect both sides might actually be better served preparing for the inevitable. If we are to believe some reporting, neither side actually prepared for the utter chaos expected.

I should say that I don’t think the EU is worried about it, I’d say they’re more than used to it after decades of eurosceptic reporting. I just think that the EU ending talks now would have that outcome. Also I think a negative impact from no deal is unavoidable and would much rather it didn’t happen, but it’s really out of the EUs hands, and I would say they will be as prepared as is possible.

As much as the UK wants to “take back control”, they will at some stage need to develop a new trading relationship with their closest neighbours, like literally every other country on the planet. They just don’t like that their closest neighbours are a trading and political powerhouse that they cannot realistically compete with. It could take years but eventually there will be a trade agreement, the EU know this, so will always treat the UK with perhaps more respect than it deserves right now.

54and56

Was just listening to Nick Ferrari on LBC and a truck driver, who is currently in a 5 hour long queue to get into the channel tunnel, was telling Nick that very few of the 1,600 UK logistics firms who do international haulage have secured their EMCT (I probably have that wrong) permits which are granted by the EU for 3rd country hauliers to operate in the EU. He said those who have applied all received an email yesterday evening from the relevant EU authority either confirming their application was successful or advising them that their application hadn't been approved and that the majority had not been approved.

He said even with the required EMCT permit it's going to be utter chaos and BoJo better get a deal done ASAP and not allow a few fish to put the rest of the UK economy at risk.

The poor guy sounded desperate and effectively pleading not to be put out of work by those pursuing a fundamentalist Brexit.

Also, if you get a chance you should listen to the latest to the latest Choppers Political Podcast where he has some fairly hard core Brexiteeers on still promoting the idea that the UK should have both free access to the Single Market and be free to do what it wants in terms of state aid and regulations etc which could completely undermine the Single Market without the EU having any ability to retaliate.

Their rhetoric doesn't surprise me in the slightest but what does surprise me to some extent is their complete and total confidence that BoJo won't do sign any deal which in any way restricts the UK's ability to do what it wants in terms of state aid and regulations etc or gives the EU any ability to protect its own single market should the UK undermine the single market. They are all 100% confident in the commitment BoJo has given them and they openly state that this is his Churchillian moment and he has the character to define history.

It really sounds like they've brainwashed him into believing if he brings back a no deal he'll go down as the greatest ever prime minister and they can rely on his vanity to do just that. There doesn't seem to be a scintilla of doubt in their minds that he will deliver for them.

listermint

What alot of people seem to look past is that just like trump , Johnson has a huge amount of secrets in the closet.

You only have to look how incredibly favourably and unquestionably nice trump has been to Russia and Putin over the last 4 years. And trump never ever does nice unless he's getting something in return. In his case it's how he is funded and bailed out and his true wealth being kept covered up.

In Johnson's case he is an extremely flawed character who does a drunk party circuit with many dubious characters of Russian origin on the continent.

People assume he has control over the decisions he's making. And that may be something to re-examine.

Hurrache

ElJeffe wrote: »

He's playing the EU for fools at this stage and has been for some time.

Two mornings in a row you post showing your misunderstanding of how things are going. I thought 'Europe' were going to throw is overboard in order to placate him? They'd hardly do that if he wanted a deal, so you're contradicting yourself.

Dymo

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1336789203603116034

Serious delusion from this donkey. Right up until the last minute, they still spout this crap

I don't know if it being delusional, I think for the ordinary British citizen he's right or else why isn't the EU just saying take it or leave it, they're acting like their afraid for the UK to leave and granting extension after extension if the shoe was on the other foot the UK would be so much more hard-line in granting a deal.

breezy1985

Dymo wrote: »

I don't know if it being delusional, I think for the ordinary British citizen he's right or else why isn't the EU just saying take it or leave it, they're acting like their afraid for the UK to leave and granting extension after extension if the shoe was on the other foot the UK would be so much more hard-line in granting a deal.

He is completely wrong and so is your post

Zubeneschamali

Dymo wrote: »

why isn't the EU just saying take it or leave it, they're acting like their afraid for the UK to leave and granting extension after extension

The EU will talk until the cows come home if there is even a remote chance of a deal.

Talk is cheap, No Deal would be very costly.

And even if the result on Jan 1st is No Deal, the EU will be ready to talk about fixing that.

CelticRambler

Patser wrote: »

It all makes Johnson's trip so confusing - this was billed as the big make or break moment ...

... in the UK. Here on the Continent, it was little more than a space-filler between the real news and the weather forecast. Once again, this would appear to be a hallmark of the Brexiter attitude: to wildly overestimate the importance of Britain and British politics on the 21st century's world stage.

As for the question of "to talk or not to talk ..." - perhaps it would be useful for the Brexiters (and others growing weary of the interminable negotiations) to look at Switzerland for a frame of reference: FTA signed in 1972; the last serious talks ended in a stalemate (and mutual sanctions/reprisals) in ... 2019. And in 2020, there have been several referendums in Switzerland in which the populace was asked whether or not to align with certain EU rules - mostly in order to maintain the terms and conditions of existing market access. Anyone who thinks that "Brexit" means no more talk with or about "Brussels" is in for a long, long, long period of disappointment.

20silkcut

Dymo wrote: »

I don't know if it being delusional, I think for the ordinary British citizen he's right or else why isn't the EU just saying take it or leave it, they're acting like their afraid for the UK to leave and granting extension after extension if the shoe was on the other foot the UK would be so much more hard-line in granting a deal.

Sure they are saying take it or leave it. There is not a snowballs chance in hell that the EU are going to budge on the level playing field. Allow the U.K. do as it pleases and access the single market? That’s the end of the EU.
Difficult to grasp the utter stupidity of the U.K. logic thinking they can strong arm the EU into submission on this issue.
The potential outcome is the loss or restriction of a market of 60 million or the break up of a highly successful trading arrangement between 450 million people.

peter kern

Dymo wrote: »

I don't know if it being delusional, I think for the ordinary British citizen he's right or else why isn't the EU just saying take it or leave it, they're acting like their afraid for the UK to leave and granting extension after extension if the shoe was on the other foot the UK would be so much more hard-line in granting a deal.

of course they forget the eu never really walks away not even with Turkey, they just wait.

Mezcita

Can the transition period be extended if the UK ask for it?

Enzokk

Mezcita wrote: »

Can the transition period be extended if the UK ask for it?

Too late for this. Maybe if they asked in September but the legal hoops to make this happen means there is no extension to the transition. That is at least how I understand it.

ArmaniJeanss

Obviously photo's and looks ultimately don't matter.
But in this photo from last nights meeting, it really does seem like two people who look cool and competent and on top of the situation, and two people look like complete chancers out of their depth.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/09/boris-johnson-and-eu-agree-to-extend-brexit-talks-for-another-72-hours

If I was British, I'm not sure there'd be much to inspire me that Frost and Johnson are going to out-manoeuvre the other two.

Hurrache

Wilson on RTE now, his alternative take will be interesting.

edit: EU arrogantly plundering the UK waters, capitulation, must respect the will of the British people, EU demands and usual crap from them. The people of the Irish republic must now question themselves as to the effects of a no deal, allowing our economy be dictated by Macron. Eejit.

Peregrinus

Mezcita wrote: »

Can the transition period be extended if the UK ask for it?

Without a deal having been agreed? For both legal and practical reasons it would be extremely difficult to do this at this point; there's a reason why the Withdrawal Agreements contains a term which says any extension to transition had to be agreed by 1 July last.

And the political reality is that, even if the UK were to seek a transition extension at this point (which itself is wildly unlikely) I don't think the EU would be inclined to accede to the request.

FrancieBrady

Hurrache wrote: »

Wilson on RTE now, his alternative take will be interesting.

edit: EU arrogantly plundering the UK waters, capitulation, must respect the will of the British people, EU demands and usual crap from them. The people of the Irish republic must now question themselves as to the effects of a no deal, allowing our economy be dictated by Macron. Eejit.

Ridiculous stand off here, why isn't Coveney debating this guy live. Byrne not equipped to challenge him.

ancapailldorcha

Enzokk wrote: »

Too late for this. Maybe if they asked in September but the legal hoops to make this happen means there is no extension to the transition. That is at least how I understand it.

There'd have been no point though. They've been at this for years with no progression whatsoever towards any achievable aim. I was gutted when Johnson deigned not to get an extension.

Hurrache

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Ridiculous stand off here, why isn't Coveney debating this guy live. Byrne not equipped to challenge him.

She's well equipped to challenge him.

Shelga

Hurrache wrote: »

Wilson on RTE now, his alternative take will be interesting.

edit: EU arrogantly plundering the UK waters, capitulation, must respect the will of the British people, EU demands and usual crap from them. The people of the Irish republic must now question themselves as to the effects of a no deal, allowing our economy be dictated by Macron. Eejit.

Oh god I wish I hadn't read this and switched him on. The man is unbearable. No humility, no capacity for self-reflection, no regrets, no acknowledgement of reality.

Now he's saying "the RoI market is inconsequential for us"- ok Sammy, but what percentage of your goods reach NI via RoI?

Peregrinus

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Someone needs to point out to him that Ireland is 2nd best performing economy in Europe in 2020 while UK is 2nd worst

But he has a point, to this extent; Ireland will certainly not be the 2nd best performing economy in Europe next year if there is a no-deal end to transition. That will hit us very badly; almost as badly as it hits the UK. We shouldn't be under any illusions about this.

awec

Sammy Wilson is the DUP's go-to person when they need someone to bring a lot of bluster, but they are scant on details and specifics.

54and56

Dymo wrote: »

I don't know if it being delusional, I think for the ordinary British citizen he's right or else why isn't the EU just saying take it or leave it, they're acting like their afraid for the UK to leave and granting extension after extension if the shoe was on the other foot the UK would be so much more hard-line in granting a deal.

They just have!!

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1336973232159776769