Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk

swampgas wrote: »

Would it not make more sense to judge him by his actions? For example, has his team worked constructively with the EU? Provided any detailed proposals? Suggested ways of meeting the EU's requirements?

I think it is better (at this point) to discount anything the UK say right now that isn't backed by concrete actions or concrete proposals.

Everything about the way this is unfolding feels to me like Boris and his backers are just running down the clock to no deal.

Yes, but his actions are that he said he wanted a deal with the WA and he compromised and he got the deal. It doesn't matter what Frost was saying before Johnson compromised last time, he told other leaders he wanted a deal and he moved to get it. Until he goes against this again there is no reason for the other EU leaders not to believe him.

The problem at the moment seems to be that Frost and Barnier are not getting any traction so any movement will be up to Johnson. There is very little time, but remember how quickly things got done last year means there is a lot of time actually. We will just have to wait for the UK, it has always been up to them from the start.

Enzokk

reslfj wrote: »

The WA deal was just minor changes in a few pages of an already negotiated agreement. It changed the original (last resort) Irish Sea backstop to a permanent front-stop with a - very unlikely to be used - exit clause.

A trade deal is a much more complicated text, where every line has to be negotiated, checked and re-checked.

Any trade deal agreed within the available 4-6 weeks will have to be based on the EU text (if that is even possible) with very minor redaction.

For the EU27 I get more and more convinced that a 6-12 months cool-off NoDeal period in UK-chaos, under full WTO rules, and with no other deals - is what is needed looking forward.
People of the 'we need to look and feel' type simply need to look and feel before they will understand.

Nothing much the EU27 can do about it - I'm afraid.

Lars

I agree, but like you say there is nothing the EU can do now. The have warned the UK and you can be sure Frost has been told this many times. The longer they wait to get a deal the more likely it becomes that it will be a BRINO deal.

My own personal feeling is that they want to test out what a no-FTA deal will be like. If it is not too bad they will forge forward with other trade deals, but if it becomes bad the EU will always be there for a close deal. The ones in charge now will not be the ones to feel the brunt of any backlash so they don't care.

swampgas

Enzokk wrote: »

Yes, but his actions are that he said he wanted a deal with the WA and he compromised and he got the deal. It doesn't matter what Frost was saying before Johnson compromised last time, he told other leaders he wanted a deal and he moved to get it. Until he goes against this again there is no reason for the other EU leaders not to believe him.

The problem at the moment seems to be that Frost and Barnier are not getting any traction so any movement will be up to Johnson. There is very little time, but remember how quickly things got done last year means there is a lot of time actually. We will just have to wait for the UK, it has always been up to them from the start.

Possibly, but to go back to a point you made earlier, why wait until now? The "last minute" for negotiations of anything more than a bare bones deal is well behind us. If the UK were serious about a deal, I think there would have been movement already. As it is, and as I have suspected for over a year now, the UK are simply going through the motions, will exit with no deal, then try to get a deal with the US which will screw the UK but make Boris and his cronies very wealthy. Any significant deal with the EU will preclude the kind of US deal they are aiming for, which to me is the most likely reason that no deal is their true intention.

Sam Russell

swampgas wrote: »

Possibly, but to go back to a point you made earlier, why wait until now? The "last minute" for negotiations of anything more than a bare bones deal is well behind us. If the UK were serious about a deal, I think there would have been movement already. As it is, and as I have suspected for over a year now, the UK are simply going through the motions, will exit with no deal, then try to get a deal with the US which will screw the UK but make Boris and his cronies very wealthy. Any significant deal with the EU will preclude the kind of US deal they are aiming for, which to me is the most likely reason that no deal is their true intention.

But does not the deal with the USA require Trump to win in November? I doubt the Democrats, if they win in November would want a trade deal that affects Ireland, and if they retain the Congress, and possibly they gain control of the Senate, then the whole USA trade deal resets.

Just as the EU has moved on from Brexit and are looking at other more important issues, the USA under Bidon have more important issues than a trade deal with the UK.

Covid will still be there and the consequences of it will still have massive economic issues that will need significant executive action.

swampgas

Sam Russell wrote: »

But does not the deal with the USA require Trump to win in November? I doubt the Democrats, if they win in November would want a trade deal that affects Ireland, and if they retain the Congress, and possibly they gain control of the Senate, then the whole USA trade deal resets.

A good point. It would be a high risk all-or-nothing strategy, but then Boris is the kind of man who appears happy to take risks when he personally is protected from any downsides.

Sam Russell

swampgas wrote: »

A good point. It would be a high risk all-or-nothing strategy, but then Boris is the kind of man who appears happy to take risks when he personally is protected from any downsides.

Well, he might get sacked if it all goes wrong for him (and the UK).

fly_agaric

Sam Russell wrote: »

Trump to win in November? I doubt the Democrats, if they win in November would want a trade deal that affects Ireland, and if they retain the Congress, and possibly they gain control of the Senate, then the whole USA trade deal resets.

IMO if money can be made for corporate US off a deal with post Brexit UK it will be attempted. In fact a UK-US trade agreement may be more likely with a reasonably competent Democrat US president/administration and the Congress controlled by the same party.
Trump and his admin. are incompetent. They can destroy but not create. Even if they support Brexit and breakup of the EU and wish to reward/support post Brexit UK with a trade agreement their ability to actually make it happen (even if Republicans controlled all levers of power) is low I think, judging by last 4 years.

One positive difference from an Irish point of view though is I think Biden would be less likely to stand for the UK trying to cheat or harm Ireland or the EU and not abide by agreement it has made already. Trump and his admin would not care at all about this. In fact idea of the UK breaking the agreements it has made with the EU and generating more chaos and disruption would appeal. They will not hold the UK to what it has agreed but a Democrat President will IMO.

Roanmore

Somebody has put forward the theory that the Abbott story was leaked as a diversion to get Hannan on the Trade Board.

listermint

Enzokk wrote: »

Yes, but his actions are that he said he wanted a deal with the WA and he compromised and he got the deal. It doesn't matter what Frost was saying before Johnson compromised last time, he told other leaders he wanted a deal and he moved to get it. Until he goes against this again there is no reason for the other EU leaders not to believe him.

The problem at the moment seems to be that Frost and Barnier are not getting any traction so any movement will be up to Johnson. There is very little time, but remember how quickly things got done last year means there is a lot of time actually. We will just have to wait for the UK, it has always been up to them from the start.

This is very naive he signed that last time to win power and the election. Nothing more. Now that parts done he can do whatever he likes.

Not to be trusted. His words are literally meaningless .

Capt'n Midnight

Roanmore wrote: »

Somebody has put forward the theory that the Abbott story was leaked as a diversion to get Hannan on the Trade Board.

It's like using a shotgun.

Keep firing until you hit some thing and then claim you were aiming at it all along. And screw the collateral damage.

If the aim is to create confusion and mistrust then yeah they are winning.



H2S starting work was also announced. £100Bn from the magic money tree. Later on we might even find out who bought land or got contracts and who they were friends with.

The rails are made by a Chinese owned steelworks. Good thing the Chinese won't be temped to turn the screws on negotiations. Nor will they play the 5G or nuclear power cards during trade deals. Or undermine UK soft power by leaning on Hong Kong.

Oddly enough the US and China might co-operate on trade deal timing because it will split the UK's negotiating talent pool. :pac:

listermint

Roanmore wrote: »

Somebody has put forward the theory that the Abbott story was leaked as a diversion to get Hannan on the Trade Board.

Why would you need a diversion. They have majority they can put hannon on the board. They don't care who they appoint to what. This is trump mark 2. Diversion isn't even required

Capt'n Midnight

listermint wrote: »

Why would you need a diversion. They have majority they can put hannon on the board. They don't care who they appoint to what. This is trump mark 2. Diversion isn't even required

To create confusion for it's own sake..

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please do not dump tweets here. Post and response deleted.

Enzokk

A couple of links, firstly apparently this time it will be different and they will not blink like they did last time,

https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1302322019548229633?s=20

Is this a acknowledgement that the deal Johnson came back with was a bad deal? I thought the same people who is telling us there will not be any quarter given this time was telling us what a great and "oven ready" deal it was last time? The press is strange in the UK.

Then there is this profile on David Frost,

Boris’s brick wall: Can David Frost help the UK survive Brexit’s new cliff edge?

It is an interesting read but the main takeaways I have from it, Frost developed his eurosceptic stance from working in the EU at the same time that Johnson was writing his lies about the EU.

In 1993, Frost was posted to the UK Representation in Brussels as First Secretary for Economic and Financial Affairs. It turned out to be a defining moment in his career, even if that wouldn’t be evident for many years. By Frost’s own account he arrived a “typical pro-European,” but after years battling bureaucracy—at the very time when Johnson was writing (and sometimes confecting) hair-raising Brussels-bashing stories for the Daily Telegraph—he lost faith in the European dream.

He is also a hard worker, but not the most talented or smartest person. That is why he was passed up for promotion in the Foreign Office and why he left according to some. He holds a grudge for this and in this way he is a lot like Cummings. He worked with Lord Kerr (of article 50) and he was described as someone who was good at carrying out instruction, and to never query them. This is not a compliment though. Other words used to describe him is boring, but in a good way.

I don't know what is says but when he left Scotland his remarks were that he would rate their cities as "overrated" and the filthy streets and overflowing bins are what he would remember as much as the scenery. It seems he didn't like it then.

I have remarked that it seems like Barnier is frustrated by Frost. Rob commented that he thinks this is the UK winning the argument, but it seems like it is frustration as there isn't much of a back and forth between the sides at the moment.

EU officials contrast him despairingly with the man he replaced: “Robbins was always imagining solutions and compromises,” said one. “Frost seems to think all you have to do is wait for the other side to admit they’re wrong and come round to your position. He’s like a brick wall, inflexible and obdurate.”

Others confirm that Frost’s uncompromising approach has gone down badly. “The crassness of what he has said publicly has surprised his opposite numbers,” said one former senior diplomat with strong contacts across the EU. “They expected the guy would at least know his stuff in depth. They view him as a political appointment who is obeying instructions from above as to how to play it. He very rarely turns up in capitals. He does not listen; only transmits.”

That brings us nicely to the conversation we had yesterday about Johnson and EU leaders taking him on his word that he wants a deal. While the article is at pains to point out that Frost is trusted by Johnson, it seems like he didn't agree with the PM on the WA. If Frost had his way it seems like there would have been another delay as he wouldn't have compromised like Johnson did. He is a firm believer in the technology solutions to the Irish border.

Frost’s supporters maintain that he delivered a Brexit withdrawal deal for Johnson last October that many had thought unachievable. “David Frost came in in 2019 with the British State three-nil down in the negotiation with the Irish and the EU,” said Dean Godson, director of the centre-right think tank Policy Exchange. “With the full backing of Boris, Frost helped turn the outcome into a score draw, which no one thought possible… And it was a substantive score draw which—unlike the previous Olly Robbins-led negotiations—obtained the support of the Commons. He has shown he can play at the highest levels and secure a result.”

But others who observed the talks closely are much less kind about the contribution of Frost towards a deal which, it should not be forgotten, involved a late British climbdown on a new border in the Irish Sea, a supposed UK red line. Whitehall sources suggest that Frost was over-ruled by the prime minister, who insisted on compromise after his meeting with Leo Varadkar, then Irish Taoiseach. Until then, in the words of one source, Frost had instead remained a “total devotee” of the idea that technology could solve the Irish border conundrum, “and stuck to it long after it was completely obvious to all that it would not fly.” The only flexibility here came from the PM: “Johnson junked it when he realised it had zero chance.”

So I wonder how this will turn out. Either way it seems like Johnson will go back on his word on wanting a deal with the other EU leaders or Frost will be overruled again during the negotiations. For someone, who is quiet but obviously keeps a grudge, how will he take this? All of his hard work to not move in the negotiations only to be told to move again at the last minute will surely not go down well with him. Or a no-FTA deal at the end of all of this because he is just another devotee to the cause.

The UK government at least is entertaining to watch, I will give them that. Lurching from one disaster to the next and then u-turning when public opinion is against them, its no way to run a government but it is fun to spectate.

beggars_bush

The press in the uk have become a mouthpiece for Cummings and co

Capt'n Midnight

beggars_bush wrote: »

The press in the uk have become a mouthpiece for Cummings and co

https://twitter.com/CBeaune/status/1302275243810197504

"No doubt that British humour the Telegraph is accustomed to: Obviously, full support to Michel Barnier and his mandate! #fakenews,"
Beaune added in a second tweet linking to the Telegraph story.
Via the Singapore Times


This looks like a perfect time to ask certain sections of the UK press -

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Will you provide some substance to your claims because all I can see are spurious allegations regarding the EU which are getting a reaction but you have nothing at all behind them?

Enzokk

Plans are seemingly afoot to have the EU bend to the will of the UK and allow them EU Membership without the cost or pesky rules it seems,

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1302517974570536960?s=20

So they want to use the City of London as a bargaining chip and the financial markets they have there currently and force companies based in the EU to put pressure on their government to give the UK the trade deal they want while keeping their sovereignty. As the tweet states, the reason why London was used as a financial hub is precisely because there was never any worry that the UK would think about doing anything crazy like this. How times have changed.

And then back to David Frost, Theresa May's Chieff of Staff has tweeted about the story in the Mail on Sunday about the UK not backing down this time,

https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1302512807477415938?s=20

Sets out perfectly really, Frost did nothing other than give in to a condition Johnson himself said no PM would ever do. That will forever be on him as the chief negotiator.

Headshot

I just want to see them crash out burn at this stage.

Yes it will be tough for the EU but I feel we're in a much better position then they are

ath262

leaving aside the daft fiction in some of the UK press to one side for a bit - an interesting interview with Michel Barnier in the New European (article should be free to view)

Michel Barnier says he will ‘never yield’ to Brexiteers attempting to ‘destroy’ the EU (published 3rd Sept 2020)

Nody

Enzokk wrote: »

Plans are seemingly afoot to have the EU bend to the will of the UK and allow them EU Membership without the cost or pesky rules it seems,

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1302517974570536960?s=20

So they want to use the City of London as a bargaining chip and the financial markets they have there currently and force companies based in the EU to put pressure on their government to give the UK the trade deal they want while keeping their sovereignty. As the tweet states, the reason why London was used as a financial hub is precisely because there was never any worry that the UK would think about doing anything crazy like this. How times have changed.

For your own sanity don't read the comments on the article; apparently NY will "align with London" and stop lending money to EU. I mean seriously; have they got even a basic understanding of how competitive (and profitable) lending is? And of course the usual "EU is bancrupt", "EU will go under due to covid" without looking at UK's economy and my all time favorite "UK is a country of small companies so when we leave EU there will be plenty of new small companies starting up"...

Sam Russell

So the Brexiteers have given up on the German Autoindustry putting pressure on Angela Merkel putting pressure on Michel Barnier to yield to their demands.

Now, it is to put pressure of EU multinationals who need to raise capital to put pressure on their Governments to put pressure on Michel Barnier to yield to their demands, otherwise the CofL wont lend them any money. They know this because the NY money market said they will not co-operate with EU money markets. [Well, I think they made the last bit up - by the way, who would they speak to in the NY money markets to get such certainty?].

Of course, the British side will not blink first because the EU always does at the last minute.

Pretty ballsy for a service-based economy to threaten to blow up its services sector.

fash

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Pretty ballsy for a service-based economy to threaten to blow up its services sector.

One might say smart and ballsy.

Detritus70

fash wrote: »

One might say smart and ballsy.

Ballsy maybe, but I'm struggling to see the smart part.

Sam Russell

Detritus70 wrote: »

Ballsy maybe, but I'm struggling to see the smart part.

Smart is what you feel when you get stung. I would imagine that is what is meant.

I saw Raab on the news talking deluded nonsense saying, more or less, we want a deal and the EU must give it to us. The EU have said 'we need state aid rules, and you do not want ours, so what rules are you proposing?'

Uk answers will be on a post card, with a 2nd class stamp.

Spanish Eyes

At this stage let the UK at it now. EU has tried but no budge from the (former but still trying) Empire.

If EU can survive Covid, it can survive this too. Time to back off is nigh.

Leroy42

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

At this stage let the UK at it now. EU has tried but no budge from the (former but still trying) Empire.

If EU can survive Covid, it can survive this too. Time to back off is nigh.

No advantage in that. Keep talking, hoping the UK will come to its senses but if not then No Deal.

Walking away now achieves nothing, and whatever happens there will be plenty of future negotiations

Spanish Eyes

Leroy42 wrote: »

No advantage in that. Keep talking, hoping the UK will come to its senses but if not then No Deal.

Walking away now achieves nothing, and whatever happens there will be plenty of future negotiations

Yes, that is what I meant really. Keep trying, keep the upper hand but back off when it is useless anymore to keep it going and SAY SO. At least the EU did try. And I do realise that EU has a stake in all this, but it's so not worth the hassle if it doesn't work out. How can the UK be so powerful in negotiations is something I always wonder about.

timetogo1

fash wrote: »

One might say smart and ballsy.

Which one?

Leroy42

Looks like the UK is getting ready to renege on the WA.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1302701541674160134