Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

Looks like the UK is getting ready to renege on the WA.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1302701541674160134

Was about to post about this, here is the article in the tweet,

So we could see some fireworks on Wednesday if this article is correct,

UK plan to undermine withdrawal treaty threatens Brexit trade talks

The UK is planning new legislation that will override key parts of the Brexit withdrawal agreement, risking the collapse of trade negotiations with Brussels. 

Sections of the internal market bill — due to be published this Wednesday — are expected to “eliminate the legal force of parts of the withdrawal agreement” in areas including state aid and Northern Ireland customs, according to three people familiar with the plans. 

The move would “clearly and consciously” undermine the agreement on Northern Ireland that Boris Johnson signed last October to avoid a return to a hard border in the region, one person with knowledge of the plans said.

Last week, the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier warned that “a precise implementation of the withdrawal agreement” was vital for the success of trade talks and a key issue of trust between the two parties.

It seems like David Frost is behind these decisions. He is the one that wants it in the bill and wants to use the option.

The autumn finance bill, used to write the chancellor’s Budget into law, is also expected to overwrite a third aspect of the Northern Ireland protocol covering the payment of tariffs on goods entering the region, according to those familiar with the plans. 

Officials say the plans risk poisoning the prospects of an eleventh-hour deal.

Lord Frost, the UK chief negotiator, has already deepened tensions ahead of negotiations that are due to resume in London on Tuesday, saying in a Sunday newspaper interview that the UK would not become a “client state” of the EU.

A second person familiar with the impending bill said that Lord Frost had personally driven the decision to take the “nuclear option” of overwriting the withdrawal agreement, despite progress being made in talks on implementing the Irish protocol.

We have heard about stories like this before and it usually didn't end up as badly as reported earlier. We will have to wait until Wednesday and see how this turns out. If the report is accurate then I suspect the talks will end on Wednesday very quickly and the emphasis will be on the UK to adhere to the WA for the FTA talks to continue.

ongarite

More creative wishes from UK government:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1302700717115953152?s=20

Jizique

Leroy42 wrote: »

Looks like the UK is getting ready to renege on the WA.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1302701541674160134

Perfidious Albion at it again - and Arlene just said she was prepared to implement the WA provisions

Mr.Nice Guy

Jizique wrote: »

Perfidious Albion at it again - and Arlene just said she was prepared to implement the WA provisions

Yes, puts her in an awkward spot. This was what she said recently.

https://twitter.com/mandy_mcauley/status/1302174202573840384


Sammy Wilson wasn't having any of that and I suspect Arlene will be told to fall into the new line. This will put a strain on relations between the NI parties.

Hopefully the Irish-American lobby will make their feelings on this known in the coming days. You really can't trust the Tories one bit.

Enzokk

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Yes, puts her in an awkward spot. This was what she said recently.

https://twitter.com/mandy_mcauley/status/1302174202573840384


Sammy Wilson wasn't having any of that and I suspect Arlene will be told to fall into the new line. This will put a strain on relations between the NI parties.

Hopefully the Irish-American lobby will make their feelings on this known in the coming days. You really can't trust the Tories one bit.

I am tempted to overreact but as I posted we have had stories like this before that predicted a speech or legislation that would confront the EU, but when it came to the actual speech or legislation it was usually watered down. So there is no need to get worked up yet until we get to see the legislation.

No need to panic yet, it will most likely not be as reported or they will u-turn within a few days when reality strikes.

Enzokk

There is obviously a lot of reaction to that report. It is interesting that the Political Editor of the Daily Mirror heard about this as well before the story was posted by FT,

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1302701587249483784?s=20

Then we have reaction from Simon Coveney as well to this,

https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1302714045410217985?s=20

I do wonder if they did this to test the water as well, to see what the reaction would be. To test the limits of what they can do, then again Frost is in charge of the negotiations and it seems like he believed technology would solve the Irish border so it is 50-50 whether they actually try this stunt on Wednesday.

reslfj

Enzokk wrote: »

I am tempted to overreact but ...

No need to panic yet, it will most likely not be as reported or they will u-turn within a few days when reality strikes.

Negotiations in good faith and no punishment of the UK - right - there is, however, limits to the EU's goodwill towards the UK.

It may soon be time to remove the EU's velvet glove and display its iron fist. We do not negotiate, agree, ratify for the other part to throw away everything after 9 or 11 months. This is not a way to behave in the international world.

We should make it 110% clear to the UK, that we will enforce every detail of a NoDeal to the last comma.

We should even consider revoking landing rights for all flights from/to England.

Lars

Leroy42

I recall at the time of the WA that there were posters on here claiming a massive victory for Johnson and a massive climb down by the EU.

It was certainly sold 8n the UK GE as a major achievement by Johnson.

Seems all that is out the window now.

I do think that this could well be a plan to try to show EU that Johnson is really, really serious about no deal. Get the EU to think that the UK is just crazy enough.

I can't see it working though.

Brussels Sprout

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1302723442719023105

Brussels Sprout

reslfj wrote: »

It may soon be time to remove the EU's velvet glove and display its iron fist. We do not negotiate, agree, ratify for the other part to throw away everything after 9 or 11 months. This is not a way to behave in the international world.

You'd think the Tories would be a bit more concerned about the UK's reputation when it came to honouring agreements considering they're going to have to enter into a LOT of negotiations with a LOT of different countries when this is all over. Madness.

LeinsterDub

After several months of dormancy and several years of talking the Brexit dragon has awakened and we have entered end game

listermint

Leroy42 wrote: »

I recall at the time of the WA that there were posters on here claiming a massive victory for Johnson and a massive climb down by the EU.

It was certainly sold 8n the UK GE as a major achievement by Johnson.

Seems all that is out the window now.

I do think that this could well be a plan to try to show EU that Johnson is really, really serious about no deal. Get the EU to think that the UK is just crazy enough.

I can't see it working though.

I don't think the EU is under any impression they won't go for no deal. They've dealt with numerous halfwits for the past 4 years. They are fully versed in the ****witry on display. Hence why many countries have quite literally taken defensive actions on it.

I can only imagine whats left of the once talented UK civil service is absolutely astonished at the Eton mess running the show now.

ongarite

It's like Groundhog Day for Brexit talks again.
Let's forget everything we agreed twice already and start a fresh again, this time with 5 weeks to sort it all out.

DangerScouse

Not looking good I'm afraid. Really had hoped everyone would see sense and work something out but I'd say hard Brexit is now more likely than not.

Will be a grim few years ahead.

Enzokk

reslfj wrote: »

Negotiations in good faith and no punishment of the UK - right - there is, however, limits to the EU's goodwill towards the UK.

It may soon be time to remove the EU's velvet glove and display its iron fist. We do not negotiate, agree, ratify for the other part to throw away everything after 9 or 11 months. This is not a way to behave in the international world.

We should make it 110% clear to the UK, that we will enforce every detail of a NoDeal to the last comma.

We should even consider revoking landing rights for all flights from/to England.

Lars

I agree, but the EU should wait to confirm if this is actually what the legislation will say or not. It could be a ploy to get the EU to walk away from the negotiations so the blame would be on them. I do hope though if the report is true that Barnier walks out as soon as it is confirmed as it would undermine the agreement Johnson agreed and Parliament voted for.

We can also see there is already a reaction from the EU if this is true, they are telling us what will happen,

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1302720596619526151?s=20

Here is the rest of the tweets from Tony Connelly on the statement Johnson will make tomorrow,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1302723446430994432?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1302723450591682560?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1302723454207221760?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1302723457218740226?s=20

There is no confirmation there that Johnson will rip up the WA, but the seeds have been planted for him to do that. I still think the story is to agitate the EU into a reaction and they will not go through with it, because they cannot be that stupid.

LeinsterDub

ongarite wrote: »

It's like Groundhog Day for Brexit talks again.
Let's forget everything we agreed twice already and start a fresh again, this time with 5 weeks to sort it all out.

That's what the UK are hoping for. It won't happen

Enzokk

DangerScouse wrote: »

Not looking good I'm afraid. Really had hoped everyone would see sense and work something out but I'd say hard Brexit is now more likely than not.

Will be a grim few years ahead.

A few people have made this comment tonight,

https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1302152794728587266?s=20

So basically, there will always be negotiations with the EU from here on in. If it is not on a FTA it will be about aspects of the FTA already agreed that the current government doesn't agree with. Then the next government will get a chance to change it in the future. The only way to stop talking about Brexit was to cancel it, but they lied to the people about this all.

Strazdas

Senior FT journalist suspects Johnson may be about to break off negotiations and head straight into No Deal. Ominous, to say the least.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1302703548589838345

Strazdas

Enzokk wrote: »

A few people have made this comment tonight,

https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1302152794728587266?s=20

So basically, there will always be negotiations with the EU from here on in. If it is not on a FTA it will be about aspects of the FTA already agreed that the current government doesn't agree with. Then the next government will get a chance to change it in the future. The only way to stop talking about Brexit was to cancel it, but they lied to the people about this all.

Brexit has always been an utter absurdity. Thinking they could take a sledgehammer or wrecking ball to their 50 year political, economic and cultural relationship with their 27 nearest neighbours and trading partners and thinking they could somehow unilaterally reset it to something different (in a manner that no other country has ever even attempted). Lunatic stuff.

Brussels Sprout

If they announced No Deal then they have to own the consequences in January. They're already slipping in the polls over their Covid-19 handling.

As others have said, it'd be more politically prudent for them to have the EU break off talks. They could then offer that as a fig-leaf to their own supportive press that they have been wronged. Not that they'll need to an excuse to blame the EU regardless.

LeinsterDub

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

If they announced No Deal then they have to own the consequences in January. They're already slipping in the polls over their Covid-19 handling.

As others have said, it'd be more politically prudent for them to have the EU break off talks. They could then offer that as a fig-leaf to their own supportive press that they have been wronged. Not that they'll need to an excuse to blame the EU regardless.

They don't care about polls. Memories are short. Their majority massive and an election 4 years away

No deal, blame everything on Covid. Gradually over decades make small deals and claim they're the reason for recovery rather than returning to a ore-Covid mean.

Rain Ascending

reslfj wrote: »

Negotiations in good faith and no punishment of the UK - right - there is, however, limits to the EU's goodwill towards the UK.

It may soon be time to remove the EU's velvet glove and display its iron fist. We do not negotiate, agree, ratify for the other part to throw away everything after 9 or 11 months. This is not a way to behave in the international world.

We should make it 110% clear to the UK, that we will enforce every detail of a NoDeal to the last comma.

We should even consider revoking landing rights for all flights from/to England.

Lars

I understand and share fully the annoyance at this kind of reckless game-playing. But now is the time for very cool heads in the EU negotiation team. Measured, calm reactions is the order of the day.

Why? Because even in terms of short-term tactical gains, Johnson has overplayed his (already weak) hand.

Up to now, the blame game following the increasingly likely no-trade deal scenario on Jan 1 2021 was going to be evenly fought out. The details over state-aid rules were going to bore 95% of electorates in the UK, the EU and beyond. Fish is a straight up and down nationalist issue "of course, we control our own waters/have ancient fishing rights <delete as appropriate>" and is otherwise highly technical.

This proposal to tear up the WA is a different animal. "Tearing up international law", "endangering the GFA", "undermining the Union." The first two of these will resonate well beyond the UK and will be easily understood, for example, in the House of Representatives in the US. For example, it gives Biden an excuse to talk about his Irish heritage. When things get messy after a no-trade-deal in January, the EU has the perfect set of easily *understandable* reasons for not agreeing a deal and indeed for not being "accommodating" as difficulties arise.

If I were Barnier, I would turn up, on time, for the next round of negotiations in London. If asked about the reports in British media or even drafts of legislation being considered, I'd simply say "I hope the British parliament continues to respect international law, agreements made and the Good Friday Agreement. After all, who would be so foolish to tear these up? In the meantime, we continue our negotiations, fully in the expectation that the UK will honour the commitments it willingly signed up to..." And then let the furor continue to build inside UK politics...

reslfj

Enzokk wrote: »

I agree, but the EU should wait to confirm if this is actually what the legislation will say or not. It could be a ploy to get the EU to walk away from the negotiations so the blame would be on them. I do hope though if the report is true that Barnier walks out as soon as it is confirmed...

This is just good negotiation technique. Barnier can suspend the negotiations for say 14 days at a time, but he and his team can't leave as negotiators before the UK declares an end to the negotiations.

The EU should not walk away. Just stay and say "No" until Boris&Co makes the next U-turn.

We in the EU27 can wait until 'forever' and let the UK lose its EU fish market, its auto production, its lamb production etc. etc.

The EU should however - IMO - now retract all planned unilateral mitigating actions planned for January 1. Including all flights to/from England.

'Brexit means Brexit' - so let them have Brexit..

These people in government have too little knowledge of EU and the world. And frankly they have no decency either.

Lars

Rain Ascending

By the way, I think this guy has put his finger on what's going on within the Johnson government:

https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1302714551285231616

If you look at the various stories coming out in the press this weekend, they are all of a type, "let's try to increase the no-trade-deal pressure on the EU".

As noted up-thread, the UK will *eventually* come around to a deal with the EU -- after all, it is going to be stuck negotiating with the EU for decades to come. We also know that in the short term, after a no-trade deal in January 2021, pressure will build on the UK much faster than on the EU and, indeed, Ireland. As a former senior French politician tweeted a couple of days ago,
"Keep Calm
and
Support Michael Barnier"

fash

Detritus70 wrote: »

Ballsy maybe, but I'm struggling to see the smart part.

A reference to a(n) (in) famous article:
https://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/the-smart-ballsy-guys-are-buying-up-property-right-now-26307728.html

Mr.Nice Guy

There's an episode of the X-Files in which Mulder and Scully are in a Groundhog Day scenario where a chap blows up himself and everyone in a bank after an attempted heist goes wrong. Every time he sees the SWAT team or hears the sirens coming, he detonates. No matter how much they try to reason with him.

These Brexit negotiations remind me of that. I get the sense that the Brexiters now realise that their attempted heist isn't going to work, so they would rather end it on their terms. That's why I don't get the impression that this is a bluff. The penny has dropped that they aren't going to get a deal they can sell to their supporters. They probably never could get that. And so they are going to end it on their terms to save face. They are going to detonate.

In the X-Files episode, the drama ends when the bank robber's girlfriend sacrifices herself. But I don't think these Brexiters give a damn if NI, or Scotland, or any other region suffers. This isn't about reason any more. It's emotion over thought.

fash

Leroy42 wrote: »

I recall at the time of the WA that there were posters on here claiming a massive victory for Johnson and a massive climb down by the EU.

It was certainly sold 8n the UK GE as a major achievement by Johnson.

Seems all that is out the window now.

I do think that this could well be a plan to try to show EU that Johnson is really, really serious about no deal. Get the EU to think that the UK is just crazy enough.

I can't see it working though.

Certainly doesn't look great as regards the whole: "hey you can trust us to have preferential access to your market place while not abiding by the same rules as anyone else (and despite our long history of abusing state aid to wage economic war)." If the UK isn't even going to comply with the rules it does sign up to, how is the EU to trust them to implement in good faith promises which are given as a "trust us".

fash

Strazdas wrote: »

Brexit has always been an utter absurdity. Thinking they could take a sledgehammer or wrecking ball to their 50 year political, economic and cultural relationship with their 27 nearest neighbours and trading partners and thinking they could somehow unilaterally reset it to something different (in a manner that no other country has ever even attempted). Lunatic stuff.

"Unilaterally resetting" is very possible - the absurd part was the "unilaterally resetting it in a manner completely in our favour".

fash

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

If they announced No Deal then they have to own the consequences in January. They're already slipping in the polls over their Covid-19 handling.

As others have said, it'd be more politically prudent for them to have the EU break off talks. They could then offer that as a fig-leaf to their own supportive press that they have been wronged. Not that they'll need to an excuse to blame the EU regardless.

... And it's seriously unlikely that the EU is going to be silly enough to give them that excuse - the EU will keep negotiating to the end - the UK will own no deal and own any breach of the WA.