Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Widdensushi

Hermy wrote: »

Except they won't be gone, will they?

They'll still be our neighbours and we'll still have to deal with them for better or worse.

Totally, but these negotiations have been a waste of time, they were never going to accept a deal unless it was totally on their terms, it will be good that they are finished, at some stage next year maybe they will look for a deal, eu should have walked away from this farce a long time ago.

ForestFire

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Nothing to do with Poland. He's a British MP of Polish decent.

It's posturing, plain and simple. I wouldn't have given it a second look. The UK is burning its vast reserves of soft power in exchange for a meagre supply of hard power.

Well actually technically he is not (just) "of polish decent" .... He was born in Poland and lived there until he was 6.

I'm sure he has British citizenship and Britain is more home to him than Poland now (if he has kept any of his Polish heritage) but.....

My point was just a funny observation, that the "old immigrants" and standing up to keep the "new immigrants" out! That's all.

And yes, as a British citizen he is quite entitled to do this, it's just funny...

Igotadose

I don't expect this will go well: UK Navy to patrol Channel in event of no-deal Brexit

beggars_bush

Igotadose wrote: »

I don't expect this will go well: UK Navy to patrol Channel in event of no-deal Brexit

Rule Britannia...

Its absolutely farcical. Majority of UK catch is foreign owned

murphaph

Widdensushi wrote: »

Totally, but these negotiations have been a waste of time, they were never going to accept a deal unless it was totally on their terms, it will be good that they are finished, at some stage next year maybe they will look for a deal, eu should have walked away from this farce a long time ago.

They gave us precious time to prepare and in fairness to the government and business we did better job preparing than the UK. Exporters continued to diversify away from the UK. Government agencies built customs facilities.

Boredstiff666

Jeez you lot are still banging on about the demise of another country after all this time and still nothings changed.

MBSnr

Not sure if this was posted earlier.
Apparently this is true but I've not seen any other posts about it. Vodafone UK are going to crack down on those using their service in the EU for extended periods of time. Targeting those who have 2nd homes I'd guess. Talk is that this could be the start of gradual restrictions.
Guy was informed by letter.

"unfortunately we now need to apply charges if you use your phone abroad for a prolonged period of time."
Using the mobile abroad more than 62 days in four months kicks off costs..
Calls: 3.3p a minute
Texts: 1p each
Data: £3.13 for each 1GB"

https://mobile.twitter.com/maximilianjans2/status/1337362482839564290?s=21

Rrrrrr2

murphaph wrote: »

They gave us precious time to prepare and in fairness to the government and business we did better job preparing than the UK. Exporters continued to diversify away from the UK. Government agencies built customs facilities.

I think in fairness we did a great job preparing- we have historical antecedence of all this so we know the brits better than they know themselves- with them you prepare for and expect the worst.
Their preparations are absolutely laughable considering the scale and impact of no deal- but I couldn’t care less. It’s their funeral

Rrrrrr2

Igotadose wrote: »

I don't expect this will go well: UK Navy to patrol Channel in event of no-deal Brexit

Another farce- do no U.K. ships fish in any EU waters? Where does the bulk of the catch get exported to? Time they took their heads out of their arses but may take a little taster of No deal for that to happen

Rrrrrr2

Hermy wrote: »

Except they won't be gone, will they?

They'll still be our neighbours and we'll still have to deal with them for better or worse.

I think they’re a toxic influence in the European Union abd I for one will be glad they’ll be gone. Shane because at one stage they were quite positive abd shared our economic outlook on trade to a large extent. Now it’s all anti European poison and looking backwards to the Victorian era type stuff

trellheim

"unfortunately we now need to apply charges if you use your phone abroad for a prolonged period of time."
Using the mobile abroad more than 62 days in four months kicks off costs..
Calls: 3.3p a minute
Texts: 1p each
Data: £3.13 for each 1GB"

i.e more than 50% of the time although if you were travelling back and forth a fair bit

WesternZulu

I see many of the British rags, and ergo Brexiteers, are going with the narrative that the EU has abandoned Ireland.

I honestly am struggling to get my head around why they think this. Can someone explain so I can wrap by head around their agrument?

It seems to be a widely held concensus amongst those who support Brexit that if no deal is reached then it's a case of the EU "abandoning" the Irish.

From what I can see Ireland has attained the Irish Sea border which was always it's primary aim. If the UK crashes out with a no deal that will ultimately affect the Irish economy then this isn't the fault of the EU but moreso that of Westminster. I guess I want to get into the head of Brexiteers to see what makes them think this.

Tropheus

A deal will be done. It has to be done. If there is a no deal Brexit, Johnson knows he won't last. Johnson's priority is to keep Johnson in No. 10.

My bet is a deal with an extended "implementation" period. Nothing will change on January 1st.

The EU will make it work as it's in everyone's interest.

Wait for the climbdown that Johnson will sell domestically as a victory.

lawrencesummers

Tropheus wrote: »

A deal will be done. It has to be done. If there is a no deal Brexit, Johnson knows he won't last. Johnson's priority is to keep Johnson in No. 10.

My bet is a deal with an extended "implementation" period. Nothing will change on January 1st.

The EU will make it work as it's in everyone's interest.

Wait for the climbdown that Johnson will sell domestically as a victory.

Looks that way alright

Johnston’s problem with the deal isn’t striking it, but how he shapes the broken promises to his own people that will come as part of compromising.

He has never cared about people like fishermen, and isn’t going to start now.

I don’t see the deal as being as big an issue as actually getting the brits to comply with it down the road and that could lead to divisions within Europe as individual countries raise issue with the UK ‘bending’ the rules.


Does anyone understand Irish fishing well enough to explain what will happen our industry? There is a lot of talk of the French but no talk of the impact on Irish fishing industry. Who will own what in the Irish Sea?

swampgas

Tropheus wrote: »

A deal will be done. It has to be done. If there is a no deal Brexit, Johnson knows he won't last. Johnson's priority is to keep Johnson in No. 10.

My bet is a deal with an extended "implementation" period. Nothing will change on January 1st.

The EU will make it work as it's in everyone's interest.

Wait for the climbdown that Johnson will sell domestically as a victory.

I'm not so sure Johnson wants to stay in No. 10. He wants easy money, and may well be looking ahead to his next gig. And delivering a hard Brexit might be exactly what a future employer of his might be willing to reward.

Sam Russell

swampgas wrote: »

I'm not so sure Johnson wants to stay in No. 10. He wants easy money, and may well be looking ahead to his next gig. And delivering a hard Brexit might be exactly what a future employer of his might be willing to reward.

He wants to be remembered as a reincarnation of Churchill, not Chamberlin.

Rrrrrr2

Tropheus wrote: »

A deal will be done. It has to be done. If there is a no deal Brexit, Johnson knows he won't last. Johnson's priority is to keep Johnson in No. 10.

My bet is a deal with an extended "implementation" period. Nothing will change on January 1st.

The EU will make it work as it's in everyone's interest.

Wait for the climbdown that Johnson will sell domestically as a victory.

Johnson looked very rattled. Despite his rubbish musings, it’s clear even he dudbt believe what he was saying.

Sam Russell

Rrrrrr2 wrote: »

Johnson looked very rattled. Despite his rubbish musings, it’s clear even he dudbt believe what he was saying.

One of the first lessons, as a native speaker of English, you learn when doing business of any sort with people for whom English is not their native tongue is not to make jokes of any kind. This applies even more so for those whose mother tongue is American English - because some everyday words mean different things or do not mean anything at all - like fortnight to an American.

How did Johnson not know this? Crass thinking UVdL would appreciate him making a jibe about the French. In fact he is crass in just about everything. Who would believe he was quoted as saying 'F*** business' in a public place.

Every nation has groups of people that they use as the butt of their jokes - I think the Germans have Willy and Hans - Hans being incredibly stupid (Father Dougal level stupid) - but it is lost on anyone else.

Hurrache

The whole navy thing though, they, and us, do it already. A lot of EUs navy are involved in fishery patrols and the Irish navy often make arrests.

I suppose big difference is that they're saying they'll stop anyone coming into their waters from now on, but like has been said, where will they sell their catches to.

It's a lot of sabre rattling.

20silkcut

20silkcut wrote: »

The EU would-have given the U.K. all the time it wants in a transition period in which to conclude a deal.
But the U.K. refused that.
And they had the perfect cover of the pandemic to justify such an extension.
But they didn’t do it. They chose 11 months to do the deal.

They should be reminded of this at every turn.
This is self inflicted.
This is their deadline.
What more can anyone do?

It's not quite true that the EU would have given all the time it wants. There were voices wanting to limit it to avoid neverending negotiations, and to fit into budgetary timelines. Particularly France.

But yes the current timeline is the UK's doing.

I don't think extra time would have found some magic solutions to square the circles. Political decisions are required.

yagan

Hurrache wrote: »

The whole navy thing though, they, and us, do it already. A lot of EUs navy are involved in fishery patrols and the Irish navy often make arrests.

I suppose big difference is that they're saying they'll stop anyone coming into their waters from now on, but like has been said, where will they sell their catches to.

It's a lot of sabre rattling.

Last year we impounded two NI registered fishing boats for violating fishing rights in our waters so nothing new.

An Ciarraioch

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Looks that way alright

Johnston’s problem with the deal isn’t striking it, but how he shapes the broken promises to his own people that will come as part of compromising.

He has never cared about people like fishermen, and isn’t going to start now.

I don’t see the deal as being as big an issue as actually getting the brits to comply with it down the road and that could lead to divisions within Europe as individual countries raise issue with the UK ‘bending’ the rules.


Does anyone understand Irish fishing well enough to explain what will happen our industry? There is a lot of talk of the French but no talk of the impact on Irish fishing industry. Who will own what in the Irish Sea?

A good overview here in the Examiner - most of the 200 mile limit is in the NE Atlantic, between Scotland and Norway, and not much valuable fish stocks in the Irish Sea, AFAIK:

https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/commentanalysis/arid-40186878.html?type=amp&__twitter_impression=true

Meanwhile, Norway is closing off its waters to both the UK and the EU in January:

https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN28L1KV?__twitter_impression=true

RobMc59

Hurrache wrote: »

The whole navy thing though, they, and us, do it already. A lot of EUs navy are involved in fishery patrols and the Irish navy often make arrests.

I suppose big difference is that they're saying they'll stop anyone coming into their waters from now on, but like has been said, where will they sell their catches to.

It's a lot of sabre rattling.

The UK has been increasing naval vessel preparedness for some time now,I know this first hand from the marked increase of naval vessels in and out of Cammell lairds here in Birkenhead.

Patser

Do they really want to antagonise the French fishermen that much? Are they hoping the fishermen will blockade French ports to have an excuse - saying port problems are nothing to do with our unpreparededness and all about Bolshy Frenchies

breezy1985

Patser wrote: »

Do they really want to antagonise the French fishermen that much? Are they hoping the fishermen will blockade French ports to have an excuse - saying port problems are nothing to do with our unpreparededness and all about Bolshy Frenchies

Doesn't matter how it looks to us or the French, all that matters is that it plays to the Brexit base. They will love the idea of sending the ships out it'll give a little Falklands style hard-on

Widdensushi

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A good overview here in the Examiner - most of the 200 mile limit is in the NE Atlantic, between Scotland and Norway, and not much valuable fish stocks in the Irish Sea, AFAIK:

Ireland has some of the most productive seas in the world, our 200 mile limit supports a lot of the European fleet, Alot of British boats also fish here, unfortunately a hard brexit will mean all the European boats that were in British waters probably have to fish in irish waters, with that amount of effort displaced the future is bleak unless there is mass decommissioning, sooner rather than later. I would hope that as it's our waters and we are now cut off from the rest of Europe we would get a better deal than most but it may just be regarded as European waters when the French, Dutch etc are fighting for the rights of their fishermen.

20silkcut

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's not quite true that the EU would have given all the time it wants. There were voices wanting to limit it to avoid neverending negotiations, and to fit into budgetary timelines. Particularly France.

But yes the current timeline is the UK's doing.

I don't think extra time would have found some magic solutions to square the circles. Political decisions are required.

Trade deals are often never ending negotiations the mercosur talks are ongoing for 20 years plus.
There is no deadline with trade talks.
The EU are not imposing the conditions that will exist after jan 1st. The U.K. are choosing this path.
This is entirely theirs they own it. Nobody else. This should be highlighted at every opportunity because the U.K. will be ramping up the blame game in the coming weeks and months. It should not be entertained for a second. They are punching themselves in the face.
They could still stay true to their brexit principles without going down this trade war route but they have chosen not to.

Strazdas

Tropheus wrote: »

A deal will be done. It has to be done. If there is a no deal Brexit, Johnson knows he won't last. Johnson's priority is to keep Johnson in No. 10.

My bet is a deal with an extended "implementation" period. Nothing will change on January 1st.

The EU will make it work as it's in everyone's interest.

Wait for the climbdown that Johnson will sell domestically as a victory.

But he has backed himself into a horrendous corner. All he has talked about all week has been red lines, red lines, red lines. Compromise now and he could well be turfed out as leader - note how No Deal doesn't seem to be any risk to him (for now anyway)as Conservative leader.

Capt'n Midnight

Rrrrrr2 wrote: »

Another farce- do no U.K. ships fish in any EU waters? Where does the bulk of the catch get exported to? Time they took their heads out of their arses but may take a little taster of No deal for that to happen

Brexit could undermine the EU's access to Norwegian waters. It's a trilateral deal between the Norway the EU and the UK.

Until now the UK had slightly better access to EU markets than Norway does.
This could affect fish processing and Scottish salmon exports.
https://www.kluge.no/fagforum/brexit-and-norwegian-fisheries/

Going forward, it is to expected that the UK will attempt to trade access to the UK market for access to Norwegian waters going forward.
...
The outcome of the EU-UK negotiations will determine if processing Norwegian fish in the UK will remain a profitable business model.
...
as regards farmed salmon, it would seem that following Brexit the competition between the UK and Norway as regards sales in the EU might intensify – and that the advantage the UK currently enjoys as regards completely free market to EU access could disappear.

Mr.Wemmick

Sam Russell wrote: »

One of the first lessons, as a native speaker of English, you learn when doing business of any sort with people for whom English is not their native tongue is not to make jokes of any kind. This applies even more so for those whose mother tongue is American English - because some everyday words mean different things or do not mean anything at all - like fortnight to an American.

How did Johnson not know this? Crass thinking UVdL would appreciate him making a jibe about the French. In fact he is crass in just about everything. Who would believe he was quoted as saying 'F*** business' in a public place.

Every nation has groups of people that they use as the butt of their jokes - I think the Germans have Willy and Hans - Hans being incredibly stupid (Father Dougal level stupid) - but it is lost on anyone else.

All deliberate, I think. Playing up the idea that he is a fool, unpredictable, idiotic to frighten the EU into making a favourable deal to prevent him from doing anything stupid and Trump-like.

Thankfully, the EU did not bite.