Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

ExMachina1000

Natural gas provided for 45% of Irish electricity generation with 96% of that coming from Scotland. 2014 figures so unsure how much of that changed

Where does that leave Irish energy needs post Brexit if a no deal transpires?

How high a tariff would be added to energy imports?

AutoTuning

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Natural gas provided for 45% of Irish electricity generation with 96% of that coming from Scotland. 2014 figures so unsure how much of that changed

Where does that leave Irish energy needs post Brexit if a no deal transpires?

How high a tariff would be added to energy imports?

That’s actually dropped very dramatically since Corrrib came on line. Only about 33%

Worst case scenario, we could move to a lot of LNG.

Also bear in mind we buy gas from Norway and Russia. Would the U.K. like to explain to Statoil or Gazprom why it’s cutting off its customers when it’s only a transit pipeline?

Not to mention the fact that the U.K. gas producers would be furious, including Bord Gais Energy (the energy supplier, not the state owned pipelines and distribution network - Ervia) is owned by British Gas’ parent Centrica Plc.

RobMc59

AutoTuning wrote: »

That’s actually dropped very dramatically since Corrrib came on line. Only about 33%

Worst case scenario, we could move to a lot of LNG.

Also bear in mind we buy gas from Norway and Russia. Would the U.K. like to explain to Statoil or Gazprom why it’s cutting off its customers when it’s only a transit pipeline?

Not to mention the fact that the U.K. gas producers would be furious, including Bord Gais Energy (the energy supplier, not the state owned pipelines and distribution network - Ervia) is owned by British Gas’ parent Centrica Plc.

As far as I'm aware,Russia is known for threatening to withhold energy supplies,an example of this was when they threatened Germany a few years ago..

AutoTuning

RobMc59 wrote: »

As far as I'm aware,Russia is known for threatening to withhold energy supplies,an example of this was when they threatened Germany a few years ago..

That’s when they do it though. Threatening to withhold Russian gas from another country when you’re just the transit pipeline host might result in a very different response. Money is money.

ExMachina1000

AutoTuning wrote: »

That’s actually dropped very dramatically since Corrrib came on line. Only about 33%

Worst case scenario, we could move to a lot of LNG.

Also bear in mind we buy gas from Norway and Russia. Would the U.K. like to explain to Statoil or Gazprom why it’s cutting off its customers when it’s only a transit pipeline?

Not to mention the fact that the U.K. gas producers would be furious, including Bord Gais Energy (the energy supplier, not the state owned pipelines and distribution network - Ervia) is owned by British Gas’ parent Centrica Plc.

You are correct. There is an estimated 20 years of reserves from first drill. I also read that Ireland has one of the highest proportion of energy usage from wind in the world and that Ireland is 12th in a list of 150 countries who will benefit most from a transition to renewables such as wind.
Considering we are low on natural resources for energy the utilisation of wind power will become more important.

The peat burning power station in shannon bridge closed during the week

RobMc59

Patser wrote: »

Do they really want to antagonise the French fishermen that much? Are they hoping the fishermen will blockade French ports to have an excuse - saying port problems are nothing to do with our unpreparededness and all about Bolshy Frenchies

The French fishermen are going to blockade anyway as soon as the penny drops that monsieur macron stamping his feet haven't made any difference-quite why the UK wanting control over it's own waters is causing so much chagrin is astonishing- it's a good job the UK can stick up for itself.

ExMachina1000

RobMc59 wrote: »

The French fishermen are going to blockade anyway as soon as the penny drops that monsieur macron stamping his feet haven't made any difference-quite why the UK wanting control over it's own waters is causing so much chagrin is astonishing- it's a good job the UK can stick up for itself.

Macron again stated last week that the French government would veto any trade deal that does not include fishing rights in UK waters. The UK said no.

If you were to look at the sovereign waters map you realise how much water the uk owns. It is an absolutely huge area. Other EU nations control tiny zones in comparison.

EU boats will have to pass through uk waters to get to waters on the west of Ireland. Illegal fishing in uk waters is a real threat due to the logistics.

murphaph

Is it Scottish gas or Norwegian gas passing through Scotland or both?

If it's Scottish, could it be substituted by Norwegian gas?

I doubt tariffs can be applied to gas just passing through.

The UK is also an importer of gas from continental Europe so I doubt they will be overly keen to start adding tariffs if they can avoid it.

fly_agaric

RobMc59 wrote: »

As far as I'm aware,Russia is known for threatening to withhold energy supplies,an example of this was when they threatened Germany a few years ago..

Interesting you bringing that up, almost as if it would be normal to expect that sort of thing from the post Brexit UK. Kind of do still hold out the hope that UK isn't quite aiming for the stormy and sometimes violent relationships with its neighbours in the EU that Turkey and Russia have with Greece and Ukraine respectively. You never know I suppose. Things have deteriorated though. We'll see over the next year.

tanko

RobMc59 wrote: »

The French fishermen are going to blockade anyway as soon as the penny drops that monsieur macron stamping his feet haven't made any difference-quite why the UK wanting control over it's own waters is causing so much chagrin is astonishing- it's a good job the UK can stick up for itself.

It will be interesting to see how "sticking up for itself" works out for the UK.
It's not going too well so far. Hopefully they like eating lots of fish.

Capt'n Midnight

RobMc59 wrote: »

As far as I'm aware,Russia is known for threatening to withhold energy supplies,an example of this was when they threatened Germany a few years ago..

Actually it's the US that's blocking gas supplies into Germany. The US is exporting LNG to places from the UK to Lithuania. There were plans to import here but we've a new oil and gas field so there's that.

Work on Nord Stream 2 has just restarted because the Russians need money and Germany has Sovereignty. I couldn't see the UK rejecting similar demands from the USA.


Historically Nazi Germany and Stalin's USSR were trading right up until they developed a new relationship. Which puts the Brexit negotiations in context.

Strazdas

RobMc59 wrote: »

The French fishermen are going to blockade anyway as soon as the penny drops that monsieur macron stamping his feet haven't made any difference-quite why the UK wanting control over it's own waters is causing so much chagrin is astonishing- it's a good job the UK can stick up for itself.

Control over its own waters would be absolutely fine if the UK was like Greenland or something and 90% of it exports were of fish.

It's a tiny part of the economy employing a few thousand people. As someone said recently, there are more people involved in making lawnmowers in Britain than fisherman. Sacrificing large parts of the economy to protect a tiny fishing industry is insanity.

BonnieSituation

RobMc59 wrote: »

The French fishermen are going to blockade anyway as soon as the penny drops that monsieur macron stamping his feet haven't made any difference-quite why the UK wanting control over it's own waters is causing so much chagrin is astonishing- it's a good job the UK can stick up for itself.

You can always tell a Brexiter is overplaying their hand when they start prefixing people's names with "Monsieur" or "Herr/Frau". It's like this little xenophobic switch gets activated when anyone dares to point out the folly of a British decision.

That you're referring to the apparent petulance of the French President is rather enlightening. I mean, you've ignored your compatriots' petulance throughout this week. And more. Ridiculous.

Snickers Man

beerguts wrote: »

More to the point the French Navy is larger than the Royal Navy today. So I doubt even if there was a remote possibility of a confrontation/conflict between them that it would turn out well for John Bull.

Size isn't everything.

Remember it was the Icelanders effectively who won the Cod Wars (both of them) in the 20th century.

And the Dutch spanked the Royal Navy in the 17th.

In fact I think these are the only examples of another country coming out ahead of the British after a largely (or exclusively) naval campaign.

RobMc59

BonnieSituation wrote: »

You can always tell a Brexiter is overplaying their hand when they start prefixing people's names with "Monsieur" or "Herr/Frau". It's like this little xenophobic switch gets activated when anyone dares to point out the folly of a British decision.

That you're referring to the apparent petulance of the French President is rather enlightening. I mean, you've ignored your compatriots' petulance throughout this week. And more. Ridiculous.

The prepackaged,off the shelf labelling of someone as a brexiteer because they criticize the EU speaks volumes about your mindset bonnie.I can understand that as the stronger party the EU can insist upon the UK following eu rules if it wants a deal. .What is hard to understand is the indignation and anger that the UK wants to control it's own waters-are you all so subservient to brussels that you would take being dictated to like that?

Strazdas

RobMc59 wrote: »

The prepackaged,off the shelf labelling of someone as a brexiteer because they criticize the EU speaks volumes about your mindset bonnie.I can understand that as the stronger party the EU can insist upon the UK following eu rules if it wants a deal. .What is hard to understand is the indignation and anger that the UK wants to control it's own waters-are you all so subservient to brussels that you would take being dictated to like that?

Controlling the waters would be fine if it was the only issue on the table and in dispute.

The Brexiteer position seems to be 'we must control our fishing waters, even if it tanks the economy and leaves millions on the dole....it will be worth it'.

Sam Russell

Strazdas wrote: »

Controlling the waters would be fine if it was the only issue on the table and in dispute.

The Brexiteer position seems to be 'we must control our fishing waters, even if it tanks the economy and leaves millions on the dole....it will be worth it'.

The UK are not even defending cod and chips, just mackerel and chips.

No deal means no Nissan, no Toyota, no Honda, and probably no Mini/BMW. Now JLR might have problems, PGA might jump ship as well. Airbus are likely to fly off as well.

What a shambles - they could have planned to leave if they were planning to leave. Not even toilets provided for the lorries parked up on the M20, the various Farage's garages and the queues entering Dover.

Did Johnson not learn anything from history and how Chamberlin or Eden are thought of in hindsight?

lawrencesummers

Widdensushi wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A good overview here in the Examiner - most of the 200 mile limit is in the NE Atlantic, between Scotland and Norway, and not much valuable fish stocks in the Irish Sea, AFAIK:

Ireland has some of the most productive seas in the world, our 200 mile limit supports a lot of the European fleet, Alot of British boats also fish here, unfortunately a hard brexit will mean all the European boats that were in British waters probably have to fish in irish waters, with that amount of effort displaced the future is bleak unless there is mass decommissioning, sooner rather than later. I would hope that as it's our waters and we are now cut off from the rest of Europe we would get a better deal than most but it may just be regarded as European waters when the French, Dutch etc are fighting for the rights of their fishermen.

So a no Deal means the British fishermen have less people fishing in their waters, bigger hauls and more fish to sell, but no access to the European market to sell it?


If there is a deal and EU boats are able to fish British waters it makes a mockery of the basis for their vote on solidarity and autonomy, one of the key arguments for which was fisheries.


Or else we get into the realm of subsidies, tariffs and the lack of a level playing field causing issues.

This should be fun to watch as someone whose livelihood won’t be affected, but the fishermen of Ireland must be worried.

moon2

RobMc59 wrote: »

The prepackaged,off the shelf labelling of someone as a brexiteer because they criticize the EU speaks volumes about your mindset bonnie.I can understand that as the stronger party the EU can insist upon the UK following eu rules if it wants a deal. .What is hard to understand is the indignation and anger that the UK wants to control it's own waters-are you all so subservient to brussels that you would take being dictated to like that?

Except the issue is not about "controlling their waters". It's about controlling waters and also unfetered and unrestricted access to the EU market while also unfetered and unrestricted ability to diverge standards.

RobMc59

Strazdas wrote: »

Controlling the waters would be fine if it was the only issue on the table and in dispute.

The Brexiteer position seems to be 'we must control our fishing waters, even if it tanks the economy and leaves millions on the dole....it will be worth it'.

I hope a deal can be struck,all I'm saying is the indignation and gnashing of teeth because the UK has the audacity to want to control its own waters is bizarre.
Btw,it's not just brexiteers who think the UK should be able to control its own waters.

Jizique

RobMc59 wrote: »

I hope a deal can be struck,all I'm saying is the indignation and gnashing of teeth because the UK has the audacity to want to control its own waters is bizarre.
Btw,it's not just brexiteers who think the UK should be able to control its own waters.

Sinn Fein have the same policy here so forgive me if I continue to believe that there are more important issues

Silent Running

RobMc59 wrote: »

I hope a deal can be struck,all I'm saying is the indignation and gnashing of teeth because the UK has the audacity to want to control its own waters is bizarre.
Btw,it's not just brexiteers who think the UK should be able to control its own waters.

Sure, the UK can control it's own waters. The EU can control access to it's single market and customs area. The trouble is that the UK want's to control access to it's waters, but want's full access to the EU market.

If it was as simple as the UK protecting it's waters and the EU protecting their market, everything would be sorted, the UK could shut up shop and break free! But the UK just won't go away to the isolation that it seems to need. Because full isolation is painful and they don't want the pain.

lawrencesummers

At the heart of this endgame surely exists the fact that the EU will have to make sure the UK feels some level of pain to dissuade the exiting of other nations.

moon2

lawrencesummers wrote: »

At the heart of this endgame surely exists the fact that the EU will have to make sure the UK feels some level of pain to dissuade the exiting of other nations.

The UK will feel.some level of pain as they are starting from a position of "decades engineering the best possible deal" to a position where they have nothing.

The EU enforcing it's laws and rules to the normal extent will feel like a 'punishment' in comparison to today's status quo.

I see sheep

When you're out of ideas blame the French! The most incompetent UK government in living memory, they're a disgrace.

PeadarCo

RobMc59 wrote: »

The prepackaged,off the shelf labelling of someone as a brexiteer because they criticize the EU speaks volumes about your mindset bonnie.I can understand that as the stronger party the EU can insist upon the UK following eu rules if it wants a deal. .What is hard to understand is the indignation and anger that the UK wants to control it's own waters-are you all so subservient to brussels that you would take being dictated to like that?

The issue for the UK is from a fishing point of view those waters are nearly worthless without an EU trade deal or a massive change in Fish eating preferences from the UK population. Its something like 70-80% of the fish exported from UK waters that goes to the EU.

I think what you are seeing is the frustration with the idiocy and incoherence of the UK position over the last 4 years or so. The issues around fishing are a perfect example of the trade offs successive UK governments have ignored in that time. The UK government is perfectly free to stop other countries fishing in its waters. However they should also acknowledge by not agreeing a deal with the EU they will cause at the very least a massive shock if not damage to the very industry they are supposed to be trying to protect in this case fishing. While at the same time destroying large sections of the UK economy. Honestly I wish the UK the best. But the performance of UK governments has been so bad over the last 4 years it would be considered to far fetched for a comedy series. Some of stuff as exemplified by the issues around fishing you couldn't make up. The UK government is proposing measures that will damage the fishing industry, an industry that its genuinely(I think anyway) trying to protect because they ignore the reality that its a small country that's very close to a big trading block ie the EU and that big block will have a big say on how the UK trades deal or no deal. Look at the Irish economy and particularly pre EU to see how that works and how limited economic independence can be in practice.

fly_agaric

RobMc59 wrote: »

I hope a deal can be struck,all I'm saying is the indignation and gnashing of teeth because the UK has the audacity to want to control its own waters is bizarre.
Btw,it's not just brexiteers who think the UK should be able to control its own waters.

For my part found this news almost funny yesterday. I'd expected running all the Frogs & Paddies etc right out of "Sovereign UK waters" would be a very high priority for this UK government in event of a "no deal" at the end of the transition period.

At the moment from what I've read about the issue UK will struggle to both expand catch and find new markets for it all ,but I'm sure they will do so eventually. Good quality food always has a market in the end I think.

In the meantime they're pouring petrol on + setting fire to more bridges with their neighbours. If they are busy seizing vessels and arresting fishermen those who have the naval means (e.g. France - we don't) will retaliate and their fish exports will not be welcome either.

johnnyskeleton

Mod note:

Asserting that most posters believe or arent aware of something obvious, ir order to provoke a response, is trolling.

mrunsure

RobMc59 wrote: »

I hope a deal can be struck,all I'm saying is the indignation and gnashing of teeth because the UK has the audacity to want to control its own waters is bizarre.
Btw,it's not just brexiteers who think the UK should be able to control its own waters.

I've only been following this thread for a few days but your posts seem unusually pro-Brexit for an Irish forum. What is your rationale for such a stance?

Sam Russell

RobMc59 wrote: »

That's half the problem,most posters here don't realise there has always been a simmering mistrust/rivalry between the UK and France despite supporting each other militarily on numerous occasions over the years.

That is true.

The English also have a simmering distrust of the Germans - and many have much stronger feelings towards them. If you bring in the Italians, the same applies. In fact any of the EU27 might come into this mindset - but the Irish come in for special mention.

I think posters here do not really care - why would they?