Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

FrancieBrady

Is there a schedule today? Meeting or presser to watch for?

Hurrache

The blame for Brexit for the little Englanders has come round to the Irish again, the state of this thread.

https://twitter.com/kelvmackenzie/status/1337864454403452928?s=19

He did manage to blame the French for an hour though
https://twitter.com/kelvmackenzie/status/1337830027686277121?s=19[) URL]

Shelga

Imagine if this ridiculous interview with Raab had been shown to the British public in mid-June 2016- “this is the point you’ll be at in December 2020”- i.e. whining about being mistreated by the EU because they won’t just give them whatever they want, and saying it’s perfectly reasonable to send gunboats patrolling British waters from January 1st.

What a pathetic, snivelling, misguided and weak man Raab is. I want him to be asked is he proud of where the UK is? Is he proud that it’s 18 days from the end of transition, and businesses have absolutely no idea under what terms they’ll be trading on then? Is he proud that his government is probably going to have to spend £8bn to bail out farmers, because of a ridiculous rabid nationalist project that’s completely self-inflicted? Is there a single thing he would have done differently?

No humility. No shame. Not the slightest ability to self-reflect. I honestly don’t know how British citizens aren’t rioting in the streets. But let’s see where we are in a few months.

mrunsure

Shelga wrote: »

I honestly don’t know how British citizens aren’t rioting in the streets. But let’s see where we are in a few months.

They don't care what it costs. Some are even willing to lose their jobs for Brexit if necessary. I hear this from my stupid English compatriots all the time. I have disowned Britain since June 2016 and wish I could leave.

Akrasia

Leroy42 wrote: »

Surely people will start to question why, if brexit is such a good idea and the fabled opportunity of Brexit is coming, the government needs to use 10bn of tax payers money to give to businesses.

That is nearly a full year of EU contributions. This is on top of the 6bn already spent on Brexit preparation.

The 10bn is an acknowledgement that this is going to really hurt. And yet Marr etc will continue to act as if the outcome is in question. That it could go either way. Sure, nearly every expert and report and common sense tells us it will be terrible, but IDS and JRM and Johnson said something about opportunities and a great future so who can tell!

In the middle of a pandemic, where Manchester was refused 5m in additional funding, where the government argued against feeding needy school children, they have found 10bn to hand out to companies?

From where? How is the 10bn calculated, what does it cover? Is it only exporting companies, what about importers or retail that will be impacted by higher prices? Will consumers be protected from price increases?

We all know they haven't thought through those questions. This is yet another panic decision, to try to ward off the immediate panic and buy off the business leaders.

"You don't have to shut the entire factory, here is a few hundred million, lay the workers off gradually to avoid big news stories"

It will be the EUs fault. This is the genuinely dangerous phase of brexit. Rather than take responsibility for the decisions they made (and failed to make) they will blame the EU and accuse us of deliberately trying to damage the UK economy and punish them for leaving. The seeds for this have been well sown , and the consequences for them politically could be very dark indeed.

Xenophobic populism will increase, there will be no place in the press for any pro European points of view and we’ve seen what happens to populations that are fed a narrative of victim hood alongside worsening economic conditions

Weimar Germany is a lesson we should not forget

Sam Russell

Akrasia wrote: »

It will be the EUs fault. This is the genuinely dangerous phase of brexit. Rather than take responsibility for the decisions they made (and failed to make) they will blame the EU and accuse us of deliberately trying to damage the UK economy and punish them for leaving. The seeds for this have been well down, and the consequences for them politically could be very dark indeed.

Xenophobic populism will increase, there will be no place in the press for any pro European points of view and we’ve seen what happens to populations that are fed a narrative of victim hood alongside worsening economic conditions

Weimar Germany is a lesson we should not forget

Trump has been sowing the seeds of voter fraud in the US election since August, and fortunately, those seeds have fallen on barren ground as far as the judiciary are concerned, and the American Constitution appears to be safe for the moment. All rests of the vote of the Electoral College being conducted properly, and hopefully Georgia saves the day by voting in two Democratic Senators in January.

But to get back on topic. the whole Brexit project and the rad bus has relied on a tissue of lies and manipulation of weak minded people fed a diet of jingoism and xenophobia.

Now the turkeys are coming home to roost, and latest news - those turkeys are not oven ready. It does not matter who is blamed for the disaster - it is still a disaster, and this disaster is going to be the largest the UK have faced since WW II. And it has to be remembered that all this money falling from the money tree must be repaid - probably, well certainly, repaid by others than those that received it.

Raab comes across as someone who, like President Ford, could not fart and walk at the same time. [That was a description of Ford by President Johnson].

Str8outtaWuhan

if the pound tanks jan 1st will we see an exodus of Irish shoppers to Newry for the sales?

Infini

Str8outtaWuhan wrote: »

if the pound tanks jan 1st will we see an exodus of Irish shoppers to Newry for the sales?

It'll tank well before that, the minute no deal becomes a certainty it will drop like a stone.

54and56

Str8outtaWuhan wrote: »

if the pound tanks jan 1st will we see an exodus of Irish shoppers to Newry for the sales?

Why not? It's fairly basic economics. If the hassle and cost of traveling to Newry is outweighed by the cost saving made by buying something in Sterling people will do it.

beggars_bush

Str8outtaWuhan wrote: »

if the pound tanks jan 1st will we see an exodus of Irish shoppers to Newry for the sales?

They will need the business to be honest

Rrrrrr2

mrunsure wrote: »

They don't care what it costs. Some are even willing to lose their jobs for Brexit if necessary. I hear this from my stupid English compatriots all the time. I have disowned Britain since June 2016 and wish I could leave.

This is the epitome of brexit for me. It’s purely an emotional anti European project. I see very little reasoning with these people and to bother doing so after 4.5 years is exhausting. Energy that can be much better spent elsewhere

yagan

54and56 wrote: »

Why not? It's fairly basic economics. If the hassle and cost of traveling to Newry is outweighed by the cost saving made by buying something in Sterling people will do it.

A drop in GBP will be eaten up quickly by tariffs on goods crossing the Irish sea. Any boon will only last as long as long as 2020 stock lasts.

54and56

BoJo and VdL have finished their call.

Statement by VdL in 2 minutes

Should be interesting!!

devnull

Basically VdL has just said that negotiations will continue.

So this is going to carry on a bit longer, which is n o surprise really, it will go down to the last possible moment.

An Ciarraioch

Talks to continue, but no indication yet whether that means hours or days.

Rrrrrr2

devnull wrote: »

Basically VdL has just said that negotiations will continue.

So this is going to carry on a bit longer, which is n o surprise really, it will go down to the last possible moment.

My feeling is talks will go on and on (talk is cheap) and possible bare bones agreement in key areas to ensure continuity- basically fudges or more can kicking.

Sam Russell

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Talks to continue, but no indication yet whether that means hours or days.

I suspect that the talks will continue until BJ caves or the New Year bells over Brussels sound the knell for the UK economy.

I just hope our side have done their preparations, and we are not thrown under the big red bus.

ElJeffe

Rrrrrr2 wrote: »

This is the epitome of brexit for me. It’s purely an emotional anti European project. I see very little reasoning with these people and to bother doing so after 4.5 years is exhausting. Energy that can be much better spent elsewhere

Yeah unfortunately that's the price we pay for democracy, Same happened in the US with the election of Trump in 2016. The argument for Brexit was won by a bunch of chancers but the remain side bare a lot of the blame for their pathetic approach to educating people over the benefits of the EU.

Looks inevitable now that they leave in a few days with no deal.

Rrrrrr2

Sam Russell wrote: »

I suspect that the talks will continue until BJ caves or the New Year bells over Brussels sound the knell for the UK economy.

I just hope our side have done their preparations, and we are not thrown under the big red bus.

We are prepared as we can be. We’ve done a lot in terms of alternative markets and transport links. Our economy has been drifting away from U.K. for decades, this all just accelerated it.
There’s nothing to suggest Ireland will be thrown under any bus- that’s U.K. tabloid poison talk and wishful thinking

Brussels Sprout

A stupendously bad take from Douglas Murray in today's Mail on Sunday:

Authoritarian. Unyielding. Merkel gets it so wrong because her arrogance is boundless

Most of us have been in no doubt over who is to blame for the obstacles and burning barricades blocking our route to a viable trade deal.

Emmanuel Macron, the sharp-suited, sharp-nosed President of France, has been in the vanguard of those wanting to punish Britain for daring to leave. Desperate to preserve the advantages enjoyed by French fishermen. Desperate to be the saviour of the whole European project.

However, Macron is by no means alone in conducting this unpleasant campaign of sabotage. For, as The Mail on Sunday explains today, his sensibly-suited counterpart in Germany, Angela Merkel, has played her own discreditable role.


................



Like others, she belonged the Free German Youth (FDJ), the official communist youth movement.

Rectitude and certainty pour from her. And she has no time for Boris Johnson, a man she dismisses – with remarkable condescension – as no more than a dissembler and a libertine.


Despite his huge parliamentary majority and the certainty that he speaks for millions, she refuses to trust the Prime Minister or believe him. And, however calmly she projects herself before the cameras, she has been utterly unbending behind closed doors.

You'd wonder do these guys actually believe this crap or do they just have nothing but contempt for their own readers.

link

lawred2

At least Trump could be undone four year's later..

Brexit can't be undone in the short to medium term.

The damage from Brexit is going to stick.

yagan

Sam Russell wrote: »

I suspect that the talks will continue until BJ caves or the New Year bells over Brussels sound the knell for the UK economy.

I just hope our side have done their preparations, and we are not thrown under the big red bus.

We've had brexit infrastructure ready for March 2019 at our ports.

The party most unprepared for brexit are those who instigated it.

Infini

Sam Russell wrote: »

I suspect that the talks will continue until BJ caves or the New Year bells over Brussels sound the knell for the UK economy.

I just hope our side have done their preparations, and we are not thrown under the big red bus.

Cant throw us under the big red bus when were driving the bigger blue train. :P

Regardless of talks though the thing to watch for is at what point does the EU turn around and say ratification of any agreement will not be possible by Jan 1st because there will be negotiations one way or another its just at what point is the point of no return?

GazzaL

What happens next? Trade talks to continue indefinitely while Britain quietly leaves on 1st January when the transition period ends?

rock22

Two points.
One, EU and UK seem more relaxed about a no deal than does Mr .Martin and Coveney who seem to be running around in a panic.
Two, UK has already destroyed the EU timeline, meaning there will be no proper democratic oversight to this deal in the short time left. Surely this alone is a big win for UK?

Sam Russell

Following a No Deal Brexit, we, as an economy, will have an oversupply of beef, which currently is sold into the UK at commodity prices. It is sold at commodity prices because it is in oversupply anyway.

To solve this, we need to cut the suckler beef herd by about 25%, and compensate those farmers at the bottom end of the supply. Now those farmers do not actually make a profit and are sustained by the EU single payment.

We could do with a greater supply of basic vegetables, and of grain. Now if those farmers could diversify to provide that it would be helpful, but suckler production at the low end is a part-time business runs as a way to qualify for the single payment. That is a problem.

We have a climate that favours poly tunnel vegetable and other horticulture generally. We need to get into that so that 'rural Ireland' can regenerate. A project for the Green Party.

Brexit should be seen here in Ireland as an opportunity and renaissance. We joined the EEC in 1973 with such an outlook, and we should see Brexit in the same light.

beggars_bush

rock22 wrote: »

Two points.
One, EU and UK seem more relaxed about a no deal than does Mr .Martin and Coveney who seem to be running around in a panic.
Two, UK has already destroyed the EU timeline, meaning there will be no proper democratic oversight to this deal in the short time left. Surely this alone is a big win for UK?

The EU are bending over backwards to get a fair deal done
They know the damage no deal will do to island of Ireland

lawred2

rock22 wrote: »

Two points.
One, EU and UK seem more relaxed about a no deal than does Mr .Martin and Coveney who seem to be running around in a panic.
Two, UK has already destroyed the EU timeline, meaning there will be no proper democratic oversight to this deal in the short time left. Surely this alone is a big win for UK?

says who?

You expect all 27 member nations who will need to ratify this will do so without reading it?

That might be something Boris Johnson would do - but don't expect all 27 members states to do so.

They will allow the 1st Jan come and go without a deal.

beggars_bush

Sam Russell wrote: »

Following a No Deal Brexit, we, as an economy, will have an oversupply of beef, which currently is sold into the UK at commodity prices. It is sold at commodity prices because it is in oversupply anyway.

To solve this, we need to cut the suckler beef herd by about 25%, and compensate those farmers at the bottom end of the supply. Now those farmers do not actually make a profit and are sustained by the EU single payment.

We could do with a greater supply of basic vegetables, and of grain. Now if those farmers could diversify to provide that it would be helpful, but suckler production at the low end is a part-time business runs as a way to qualify for the single payment. That is a problem.

We have a climate that favours poly tunnel vegetable and other horticulture generally. We need to get into that so that 'rural Ireland' can regenerate. A project for the Green Party.

Brexit should be seen here in Ireland as an opportunity and renaissance. We joined the EEC in 1973 with such an outlook, and we should see Brexit in the same light.

Very hard to pivot beef farmers to veg. It is a very specialised sector with high input in terms of labour

firemansam4

This is going to keep dragging on right until the 1st of January when shock horror they will announce another extention to conclude the negotiations....

The British side are convinced that the EU will bluff until the final deadline hours, they think the EU will capitulate to there demands at the last minute.

When it turns out this does not happen Bojo like he has done in the past, will backtrack on anything he promised and make up some fudge about there needing to be another transition period to iron out a few aspects of the deal which will give Britain back its sovereignty and all of that guff, and on we will go with this circus.....