Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Hurrache

Good reply from Merkel, I think the EU are well used to all the UK's blunt barbs and are amused by them.

https://twitter.com/Andreas__Rinke/status/1338111764576210946?s=19

Igotadose

Hurrache wrote: »

Good reply from Merkel, I think the EU are well used to all the UK's blunt barbs and are amused by them.

https://twitter.com/Andreas__Rinke/status/1338111764576210946?s=19

As Bearla, le do thoil?

SleetAndSnow

Igotadose wrote: »

As Bearla, le do thoil?

She was told what the UK press are saying about her and she replied "Ah thats good to know, I'm not negotiating at all"

strandroad

Igotadose wrote: »

As Bearla, le do thoil?

Click on the tweet and it will have a translate option.

breezy1985

10000maniacs wrote: »

Ed Miliband making mince meat of Andrew Marr and telling him some home truths on a no deal Brexit this morning. He is a much better politician than I thought when he was leader of Labour.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoXat4uIEc8

He's grand but he wasn't the right man to rescue the party from the hole Blairism had left it in. Got savaged by the media too cause he's a bit goofy

ElJeffe

The EU need to grow a set and tell the UK today there will be no more extentions, not a single minute. They have given far too much already.

lawred2

ElJeffe wrote: »

The EU need to grow a set and tell the UK today there will be no more extentions, not a single minute. They have given far too much already.

Daily Mail speak

It's all still a playground arm wrestle to some people

What exactly does 'growing a set' and walking away achieve?

If the UK request an extension; it should of course be granted.

Hurrache

Igotadose wrote: »

As Bearla, le do thoil?

She was asked what she thinks of the British press describing her as being to blame for no progress in negotiations. Like the guys said, her reply was that's good because she's not involved at all.

BorneTobyWilde

Milband '' Boris is like '' maybe the roof of my house will leak sometime way in the future, so just to be safe lets bulldoze the house down now ''

Irish Praetorian

lawred2 wrote: »

Daily Mail speak

It's all still a playground arm wrestle to some people

What exactly does 'growing a set' and walking away achieve?

If the UK request an extension; it should of course be granted.

Spares us another day/week/month/whatever of having to endure this nonsense doesn't it? Now there's something precious.

Rrrrrr2

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

She was told what the UK press are saying about her and she replied "Ah thats good to know, I'm not negotiating at all"

She actually has quite a rye sense of humour despite the caricatures

lawred2

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Spares us another day/week/month/whatever of having to endure this nonsense doesn't it? Now there's something precious.

The endless negotiations are boring and Brexiteers are some of the most singularly unpleasant people there is... But I'd take the irritation over no deal economic chaos

breezy1985

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Spares us another day/week/month/whatever of having to endure this nonsense doesn't it? Now there's something precious.

Starting to remind of the U.S. election thread over the last few days just waiting for the slow slow crawl to a result

Brussels Sprout

Sam Russell wrote: »

I appreciate that. As I said, the low end of suckler production is a part time business. What I did not say was that many of those low end producers are elderly, and would not be able to switch to vegetables.

It's not just the elderly either. I know a young part-time beef farmer who spent a 6-figure sum a few years ago on a state of the art winter shed for his herd. He doesn't know the first thing about growing vegetables. He doesn't have the equipment or the knowledge (and possibly even the required soil) and after his outlay on that shed he doesn't have the capital flexibility required to switch - even if he wanted to.

I don't disagree that we need to diversify our agriculture away from pastural but it's going to be heavily resisted by farmers of all ages who don't see anything else as a viable option for them.

Firblog

Infini wrote: »

Cant throw us under the big red bus when were driving the bigger blue train. :P

Seriously you believe that? And ppl on here give out about parts of the uk media being jingoistic..


You think that being on the 'bigger blue train' is going to help us?


You think being on the 'bigger blue train' will help sell our goods when our biggest single market is going to slap tariffs on them?


You think being on the 'bigger blue train' will help our fishermen when from Jan 1st they cannot fish in UK waters? (or by all accounts Norwegian waters either)


I know that this thread should really be called the 'Anti Brexit & British wanting an equitable deal thread' but all of you really should get out of this echo chamber and take the blue tinted glasses off once in a while.


Quite frankly most on here act like they've been dumped and can't understand how that happened, how could they not be liked when they are so wonderful? and just want to make the fecker that dumped them pay, to make the split as difficult as possible for them. Really its time you all just got over it, they don't like you, they've left and aren't coming back, but you've got to come to some arrangement or it is going to hurt everyone more than it needs to.

peter kern

Hurrache wrote: »

Good reply from Merkel, I think the EU are well used to all the UK's blunt barbs and are amused by them.

https://twitter.com/Andreas__Rinke/status/1338111764576210946?s=19

well but to be fair germany is heading the eu council in the 2nd half 2020 and surely communicates very closely with her prodigy VDL , so of course she is the most influential person that outlines barrniers mandate, there can be little doubt about it in my mind.

what they get wrong is that the more power she has the better it is for them.

fly_agaric

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

It's not just the elderly either. I know a young part-time beef farmer who spent a 6-figure sum a few years ago on a state of the art winter shed for his herd. He doesn't know the first thing about growing vegetables. He doesn't have the equipment or the knowledge (and possibly even the required soil) and after his outlay on that shed he doesn't have the capital flexibility required to switch - even if he wanted to.

I don't disagree that we need to diversify our agriculture away from pastural but it's going to be heavily resisted by farmers of all ages who don't see anything else as a viable option for them.

Seems to be an industry that has a few wider trends pushing against it that are not going away. Environmentalism, greenhouse gas emission reduction policies and (possibly?) a fashion for eating less meat, esp. "heavy"/rich red meat like beef. Could a no agreement Brexit be the final kick in the balls?

It is a very good quality product and from what I understand the beef production here is somewhat less environmentally costly due to ease of growing grass as fodder in our damp & mild climate (but the cows still fart alot I'm sure...). Is there scope for sales to other EU countries to take up the slack after a (painful) adjustment period? Similar to the UK and its oh so precious fish (!), food is something the world always seems to need ever more of after all.

rock22

lawred2 wrote: »

says who?

You expect all 27 member nations who will need to ratify this will do so without reading it?

That might be something Boris Johnson would do - but don't expect all 27 members states to do so.

They will allow the 1st Jan come and go without a deal.

Absolutely not. But we were told that the agreement needed to be in place in October to allow proper scrutiny by all 27 parliaments and the European parliament by years end.
What i am concerned about is that we, i.e. Eu, seem to be willing to jeopardise that scrutiny to extend talks.
It would be better now to state the deadline has passed and any agreement can only be implemented at some date after 1/1/2021 , that UK will be outside EU on that date , with all that means. I feel we are just giving into the UK running sown the clock expecting the EU to facilitate them.
It is hard to see the Dail having time to fully consider the implications of any deal in the next two weeks never mind any other parliament.

As I understand it, the transition period is set out in the Withdrawal agreement. Do we really want to go back to reopening that so we can give an extension?

reslfj

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

So many countries in Europe who are not in EU, from Switzerland, to Iceland, to Norway to 10 plus others, UK is just been awkward with their demands. They want access to the market, and offer NOTHING in return.

This is not true.
In addition giving a benefit to one partner doesn't commit the EU to offer anything like it to others.

Switzerland/EFTA and the three EEA/EFTA members are as members of the SM very close to the EU in terms of trade. In addition these 4 states are full members of Schengen.
A very large percentage of the laws in the Norwegian parliament is EU directives etc. being passed as Norwegian laws (all Schengen and almost everything trade).
They are not part of the EU's CU, but with the exception of farm, fish and a few other product areas their trade agreements are well 'interfaced' to the EU's market (EFTA).

Turkey is in EU's CU for most goods, but there are expensive standard/rules checks at the TR-EU border (and queues). Turkey is only European by the Greater Constantinople area.
Ukraine has a association agreement with the EU and does a lot to align with EU standards.

Except for European Russia/Belarus (total < 120 million) and some states in Caucasus (Georgia, Armenia ...) there are only about 3% of the European population outside the EU27 + UK. Surely not anything important in these countries for a 'Global Britain'.

Countries like Andorra (French President + Bishop in Catalonia(Spain) are co-princes), Monaco, San Marino and the Vatican are so small - historical artifacts, toy countries - that the EU has postponed dealing more with them as much more important tasks need EU attention first.
The UK Crown dependencies will miss their UK protection in any EU context looking forward. Gibraltar is e.g. now working directly with Spain to maintain an unchanged border.
The EU will not medium/long term accept tax evasion as our countries will need much tax revenue once the covid-19 is over. The US is looking negatively on tax heavens too - even before Biden.
The UK needs much more tax revenue than most countries in Europe, which is not going to be easy to find in a weakening UK economy.

Look at how the EU did get Hungary and Poland to accept the de facto "Follow the EU's values or lose EU contributions". You get something to show at home, if you accept the offer now - otherwise it will all be 'Brexit like' for you and your country.

Lars

Irish Praetorian

Firblog wrote: »

Seriously you believe that? And ppl on here give out about parts of the uk media being jingoistic..

You think that being on the 'bigger blue train' is going to help us?

You think being on the 'bigger blue train' will help sell our goods when our biggest single market is going to slap tariffs on them?

You think being on the 'bigger blue train' will help our fishermen when from Jan 1st they cannot fish in UK waters? (or by all accounts Norwegian waters either)

Well, considering being on that 'bigger blue train' means we can continue to export to about 35% of our trading partners (more if we include countries the EU has a deal with), then yes I imagine continuing on that train is a better option than the alternative of presumably jumping on the red bus which takes 10-12% of our exports.

Moreover, I would dare to suggest the plight of Irishfisherman, even if we were to assume a complete cataclysm arising from Brexit involving our waters being un-fishable and every last fishing boat and processing plant having to shut, would mean a loss in the amount of 0.3% (one third of a percent) to our GDP; about half of what we make producing ink.

Now that might well be unfortunate, but a sensible and sober approach to the situation might well value our exports of ink over our exports of fish, rather than hyperbolically jumping off the metaphorical economic cliff, to keep a tiny, if sentimental part of the economy going. And again, this is assuming Brexit reducing the Irish fishing industry to nil.

I know that this thread should really be called the 'Anti Brexit & British wanting an equitable deal thread' but all of you really should get out of this echo chamber and take the blue tinted glasses off once in a while.

Quite frankly most on here act like they've been dumped and can't understand how that happened, how could they not be liked when they are so wonderful? and just want to make the fecker that dumped them pay, to make the split as difficult as possible for them. Really its time you all just got over it, they don't like you, they've left and aren't coming back, but you've got to come to some arrangement or it is going to hurt everyone more than it needs to.

You'll forgive our mere echo chamber, sadly the few pro-Brexit voices we get here tend to produce a few echoes of their own, screaming emotive appeals of 'fish' 'sovereignty' 'mutti Merkel' and the like, before strangely moving along when what pitiful few economic contentions they make end up blasted out of the water, and when they realize the rest of us aren't swayed as easily the typical poster in the Daily Mail comment section.

Still, I do hope you'll find something of value in this mere echo chamber; you might at least observe that the UK is Ireland's third largest trade partner, not the largest.

fly_agaric

Saw someone posted about Micheál Martin appearing on the BBC?
Not sure of the point of that. Seems a complete waste of time, unlikely to achieve anything positive.
At this stage UK public has zero influence on what will happen. They had their say some time ago and plumped for a large majority for Boris Johnson. They won't get to deliver their verdict on him and the Conservatives for a few years.
The UK leaders do not give a fart in a hurricane about Irish government's/Micheál Martins belief they should make an agreement with the EU for the good of us all etc.

Nody

Firblog wrote: »

You think being on the 'bigger blue train' will help sell our goods when our biggest single market is going to slap tariffs on them?

Since when is EU slapping tariffs on Irish goods? Or where you meaning the USA? Because UK is not the biggest market; it's actually third and dropping for non EU markets.

You think being on the 'bigger blue train' will help our fishermen when from Jan 1st they cannot fish in UK waters? (or by all accounts Norwegian waters either)

Yup; because unlike UK EU will provide temporary funding for the fishers and ensure the final deal will work for them.

I know that this thread should really be called the 'Anti Brexit & British wanting an equitable deal thread' but all of you really should get out of this echo chamber and take the blue tinted glasses off once in a while.

I suggest you do the same; Brits wants an unprecedented access to the single market and not adhere to the rules the other 27 countries with such access to the market have to adhere to. That was never going to fly and will never fly; either UK sticks to EU's rules or they don't get access. Seeing how they still have not walked away after over 4 years should tell you not only who has the power in the negotiation but who's desperate to get a deal. No deal will bring pain but the pain is very much at different levels between the parties and even Boris knows this.

ElJeffe

fly_agaric wrote: »

Saw someone posted about Micheál Martin appearing on the BBC?
Not sure of the point of that. Seems a complete waste of time, unlikely to achieve anything positive.
At this stage UK public has zero influence on what will happen. They had their say some time ago and plumped for a large majority for Boris Johnson. They won't get to deliver their verdict on him and the Conservatives for a few years.
The UK leaders do not give a fart in a hurricane about Irish government's/Micheál Martins belief they should make an agreement with the EU for the good of us all etc.

Said it yesterday but I think it's counterproductive tbh. It just adds fuel to the Brexiteers hatred of Ireland.

fly_agaric

ElJeffe wrote: »

Said it yesterday but I think it's counterproductive tbh. It just adds fuel to the Brexiteers hatred of Ireland.

The die is kind of cast there (they don't like "us" very much; we did not do what they wanted [perhaps leave the EU, or else be their catspaw on the EU side during the negotiations], and made trouble over NI). I'd agree it does seem like an action that could just annoy the UK government to no purpose.
As said, I think public opinion in the UK is completely irrelevant as regards what happens during the next few weeks.

ElJeffe

fly_agaric wrote: »

The die is kind of cast there (they don't like "us" very much; we are not doing what they want and made trouble over NI). I'd agree it does seem like an action that could just annoy the UK government to no purpose.
As said, I think public opinion in the UK is completely irrelevant as regards what happens during the next few weeks.

Of course it is. It's beginning to reek of desperation from the government now. Coveney can't keep his face and voice off UK media the last few weeks. It's not helping.

kowloon

This back and forth deal or no deal can't be helping business. Pull off the bandaid quick and give them some time to recover.
At this stage, no deal might be a better shock to the system and things return to normality than some sort of twisted relationship that shifts over time and successive governments.

Hurrache

Hurrache wrote: »

She was asked what she thinks of the British press describing her as being to blame for no progress in negotiations. Like the guys said, her reply was that's good because she's not involved at all.

Exactly, when I first saw the headline, I thought, what has she got to do with the negotiations.

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Exactly, when I first saw the headline, I thought, what has she got to do with the negotiations.

Ask Boris. Because he seems to think she does.!

Capt'n Midnight

Firblog wrote: »

You think being on the 'bigger blue train' will help sell our goods when our biggest single market is going to slap tariffs on them?

Tariffs from the US ? They put tariffs on Scottish Whisky but not Irish Whiskey.

Belgium ?

The UK is not our biggest market by a long shot anymore.
Remembering that NI is inside the EU for goods, but not services, our exports to the rest of the UK only accounts for 7% of our exports. And the UK will still need to eat. And the UK announced minimal tariffs on most goods multiple times. TBH the bigger problem for Irish exports will be the fall in Sterling.

You think being on the 'bigger blue train' will help our fishermen when from Jan 1st they cannot fish in UK waters? (or by all accounts Norwegian waters either)

Pre existing treaties mean they can in some areas.

It's a mess but it means UK boats will face reciprocal arrangements.And if the UK screw up the EU fishing arrangements with Norway then they won't win any favours.

I've no idea what will happen to the NI (most catch landed at EU ports) or the foreign owned Welsh or English fishing quotas.



Brexit is not a zero sum game. There is no scenario where everyone wins, but lots where everyone looses.

SNIP. No nicknames please