Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Is Boris the editor of the daily fail?

No Cummings seems to be though

Imreoir2

Firblog wrote: »

You think that being on the 'bigger blue train' is going to help us?


You think being on the 'bigger blue train' will help sell our goods when our biggest single market is going to slap tariffs on them?


You think being on the 'bigger blue train' will help our fishermen when from Jan 1st they cannot fish in UK waters? (or by all accounts Norwegian waters either

It already has helped us, our biggest issue with Brexit, the border with NI has been resolved by the big blue train.

The UK is not our biggest market, the US and the EU come well ahead of the UK in importance for us and yes, being in the EU will help us to sell our goods. Irish businesses have been shifting away from the UK to other markets. The importance of the UK, already of declining significance by the time of the Brexit vote, has been steadily decreasing in recent years.

There are a few sectors that still have a significant exposure to the UK, but they are not all that vital in the big picture. Lets not delude ourselves like the Brexiteers that fishing is the beating heart of our economey.

Firblog

Nody wrote: »

Since when is EU slapping tariffs on Irish goods? Or where you meaning the USA? Because UK is not the biggest market; it's actually third and dropping for non EU markets.

Yup; because unlike UK EU will provide temporary funding for the fishers and ensure the final deal will work for them.

I suggest you do the same; Brits wants an unprecedented access to the single market and not adhere to the rules the other 27 countries with such access to the market have to adhere to. That was never going to fly and will never fly; either UK sticks to EU's rules or they don't get access. Seeing how they still have not walked away after over 4 years should tell you not only who has the power in the negotiation but who's desperate to get a deal. No deal will bring pain but the pain is very much at different levels between the parties and even Boris knows this.

Seriously now lads, where are you getting the figures that UK is 3rd biggest trading partner? (Irish Praetorian) on here is saying that Belgium is a bigger trading partner? Is that Belgium on its own or with Luxembourg tagged on? Post an aul link would you please? Heres a link to figures I'm using



Irish Praetorian also very dismissive of the effect on fishing industry, says "Now that might well be unfortunate, but a sensible and sober approach to the situation might well value our exports of ink over our exports of fish" who cares about the 14000 odd jobs, it's all about the value eh? It's not about the value of the exports, it's what it contribute to the economy, people empolyed, communities that would be devastated with the loss of those jobs.



Temp funding from the EU? LOL, what do you think will happen when UK stops all EU boats entering its waters? Where will all those French/Belgian/Spanish/Dutch etc boats go to fish? Let's think, what country will then have the biggest body of water, with the biggest stocks of fish? Would that be us? Then will they want a share of those stocks? you can bet Macron's left testicle they will, and Macron will want a share of that cake, even though they have no historical rights (isn't that a great term) in those waters. Then the temp funding will run out, and that will be that, c'est fini for Irish fishing industry.


Anyway this seems to be a rather unbiased piece in the Guardian as to where the sticking points are, as you see, EU wants unfettered access to UK waters for 10 years? Seems fair enough doesn't it? Of course the French even want continued access within the 12 mile zone - sure that's fair enough too.

Imreoir2

Firblog wrote: »

Seriously now lads, where are you getting the figures that UK is 3rd biggest trading partner? (Irish Praetorian) on here is saying that Belgium is a bigger trading partner? Is that Belgium on its own or with Luxembourg tagged on? Post an aul link would you please? Heres a link to figures I'm using

If you bother to look at your figures you will see that the rest of the EU is our biggest trading partner, then the US, then the UK on 10.6% (back in 2018) and it has been steadily falling since 2016.

So, the UK is not our biggest market, its a distant third place behind the EU and US.

tubercolossus

How is the UK going to stop all foreign trawlers? With their enormous Navy? Besides, the French fishers will immediately blockade Calais. Cue empty supermarket shelves in the UK.

tubercolossus

Never mind it being ridiculous jingoistic nonsense. 19th century gunboat diplomacy in 2020. I suppose JRM will be pleased, he'll remember it from the 19th century.

strandroad

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Chipping potatoes used here are Maris Pipers which don't like the cooler climate and damp soils in Ireland.
Irish grown potatoes tend to be more floury and suitable for mashing or baking. If you try and chip them they don't taste as nice and they can look burnt.

Late to the party, but I just looked at my very random bag of potatoes from Lidl I used for chips today: variety Maris Piper, origin Ireland. Looks like they can be grown here after all? Nice chips too.

paul71

Imreoir2 wrote: »

If you bother to look at your figures you will see that the rest of the EU is our biggest trading partner, then the US, then the UK on 10.6% (back in 2018) and it has been steadily falling since 2016.

So, the UK is not our biggest market, its a distant third place behind the EU and US.

And for 2020 they will be overtaken by Germany. So 4th.

GazzaL

paul71 wrote: »

And for 2020 they will be overtaken by Germany. So 4th.

It's all there on the CSO website.

snowstorm445

What is the point of deadlines if they're not worth the paper they're written on? There was so much bluster about the sacrosanct importance of the withdrawal agreement deadlines last year and yet extensions were always granted without fail. This is despite all the obstacles which people imagined would be thrown up, such as the need for unanimity among the 27 - in reality, that dissent almost never materialises, and the few moments when it does, such as with Macron last year, there is bizarrely over-the-top backlash to it in the European Council.

The British government knows it will always be given extra time and that it can always get away with this sort of back and forth nonsense indefinitely, which also has the effect of boosting Johnson's domestic popularity, more than anything else (not that that is a concern of the EU but is still undesirable).

The EU has the potential to be a major player in the world, and it's leaders must be aware of what the rest of the world takes away from these negotiations. And in my opinion, while their willingness to prolong these talks indefinitely might seem upstanding to more well-intentioned people, to the rest of the world looking for opportunities to challenge their rivals, they must seem as weak as a wet noodle. Prolonging talks, seemingly clinging onto their former member for dear life while that former member indulges in all sorts of bluster and slander in the meantime. It's not just an external issue as well - the EU would do well to remember the crap that its own members get up to, Poland and Hungary in particular. If the UK can get away with ridiculous stunts and special treatment at the same time, they may get ideas of their own. If this has shown them anything, it's that the EU doesn't like putting its foot down or showing decisive action.

The EU is not the perfect operator that some here seem to be making out. They have been vastly more mature than the British in these negotiations, and of course they are sensible enough to seek ways to limit the economic damage, but they are not flawless. In my opinion they seem to suffer from poor judgement regarding their self-awareness and the image they present to the rest of the world.

An Ciarraioch

GazzaL wrote: »

It's all there on the CSO website.

Indeed, up to September this year (October figures out tomorrow), China is rapidly closing in on GB as an export destination (€7.9 and €8.9 billion respectively).

fash

snowstorm445 wrote: »

What is the point of deadlines if they're not worth the paper they're written on? There was so much bluster about the sacrosanct importance of the withdrawal agreement deadlines last year and yet extensions were always granted without fail. This is despite all the obstacles which people imagined would be thrown up, such as the need for unanimity among the 27 - in reality, that dissent almost never materialises, and the few moments when it does, such as with Macron last year, there is bizarrely over-the-top backlash to it in the European Council.

The British government knows it will always be given extra time and that it can always get away with this sort of back and forth nonsense indefinitely, which also has the effect of boosting Johnson's domestic popularity, more than anything else (not that that is a concern of the EU but is still undesirable).

The EU has the potential to be a major player in the world, and it's leaders must be aware of what the rest of the world takes away from these negotiations. And in my opinion, while their willingness to prolong these talks indefinitely might seem upstanding to more well-intentioned people, to the rest of the world looking for opportunities to challenge their rivals, they must seem as weak as a wet noodle. Prolonging talks, seemingly clinging onto their former member for dear life while that former member indulges in all sorts of bluster and slander in the meantime. It's not just an external issue as well - the EU would do well to remember the crap that its own members get up to, Poland and Hungary in particular. If the UK can get away with ridiculous stunts and special treatment at the same time, they may get ideas of their own. If this has shown them anything, it's that the EU doesn't like putting its foot down or showing decisive action.

The EU is not the perfect operator that some here seem to be making out. They have been vastly more mature than the British in these negotiations, and of course they are sensible enough to seek ways to limit the economic damage, but they are not flawless. In my opinion they seem to suffer from poor judgement regarding their self-awareness and the image they present to the rest of the world.

Uh-oh (for the UK), it seems like the EU parliament thinks exactly the same as you:
.

Something is brewing in the European Parliament regarding #Brexit: first MEPs are working on a resolution that rules out the ratification of a possible Brexit deal as of now. There is simply not enough time for a serious procedure.

Firblog

Imreoir2 wrote: »

If you bother to look at your figures you will see that the rest of the EU is our biggest trading partner, then the US, then the UK on 10.6% (back in 2018) and it has been steadily falling since 2016.

So, the UK is not our biggest market, its a distant third place behind the EU and US.

Forgive me please, I was referring to nation states.


I would hazard to guess (and it is a guess) that more jobs in Ireland depend on our trade with the UK than any other single country (just for clarity that I'm not referring to any trading bloc)

Firblog

tubercolossus wrote: »

How is the UK going to stop all foreign trawlers? With their enormous Navy? Besides, the French fishers will immediately blockade Calais. Cue empty supermarket shelves in the UK.

And here of course, that old EU solidarity at work.

joe40

Firblog wrote: »

Seriously you believe that? And ppl on here give out about parts of the uk media being jingoistic..


You think that being on the 'bigger blue train' is going to help us?


You think being on the 'bigger blue train' will help sell our goods when our biggest single market is going to slap tariffs on them?


You think being on the 'bigger blue train' will help our fishermen when from Jan 1st they cannot fish in UK waters? (or by all accounts Norwegian waters either)


I know that this thread should really be called the 'Anti Brexit & British wanting an equitable deal thread' but all of you really should get out of this echo chamber and take the blue tinted glasses off once in a while.


Quite frankly most on here act like they've been dumped and can't understand how that happened, how could they not be liked when they are so wonderful? and just want to make the fecker that dumped them pay, to make the split as difficult as possible for them. Really its time you all just got over it, they don't like you, they've left and aren't coming back, but you've got to come to some arrangement or it is going to hurt everyone more than it needs to.

There is an obvious arrangement. The Uk can continue tariff free trading with the EU if it adhere to the terms and conditions that all other EU countries adhere to. Both now and in the future.
Why would the countries of the EU deliberately put themselves at a disadvantage.

All the jingoistic patriotic nonsense is coming from the UK only. From day one the EU have been consistent.

GazzaL

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Indeed, up to September this year (October figures out tomorrow), China is rapidly closing in on GB as an export destination (€7.9 and €8.9 billion respectively).

The biggest change will be the decrease in imports from GB and the products on offer in Ireland. Lots of Irish businesses have continued to trade as normal with British businesses, but that will all change with the looming paperwork mountain and tariffs.

PokeHerKing

snowstorm445 wrote: »

What is the point of deadlines if they're not worth the paper they're written on? There was so much bluster about the sacrosanct importance of the withdrawal agreement deadlines last year and yet extensions were always granted without fail. This is despite all the obstacles which people imagined would be thrown up, such as the need for unanimity among the 27 - in reality, that dissent almost never materialises, and the few moments when it does, such as with Macron last year, there is bizarrely over-the-top backlash to it in the European Council.

The British government knows it will always be given extra time and that it can always get away with this sort of back and forth nonsense indefinitely, which also has the effect of boosting Johnson's domestic popularity, more than anything else (not that that is a concern of the EU but is still undesirable).

The EU has the potential to be a major player in the world, and it's leaders must be aware of what the rest of the world takes away from these negotiations. And in my opinion, while their willingness to prolong these talks indefinitely might seem upstanding to more well-intentioned people, to the rest of the world looking for opportunities to challenge their rivals, they must seem as weak as a wet noodle. Prolonging talks, seemingly clinging onto their former member for dear life while that former member indulges in all sorts of bluster and slander in the meantime. It's not just an external issue as well - the EU would do well to remember the crap that its own members get up to, Poland and Hungary in particular. If the UK can get away with ridiculous stunts and special treatment at the same time, they may get ideas of their own. If this has shown them anything, it's that the EU doesn't like putting its foot down or showing decisive action.

The EU is not the perfect operator that some here seem to be making out. They have been vastly more mature than the British in these negotiations, and of course they are sensible enough to seek ways to limit the economic damage, but they are not flawless. In my opinion they seem to suffer from poor judgement regarding their self-awareness and the image they present to the rest of the world.

I think Ireland is the reason the EU is affording the UK so much leeway. If they call the UKs bluff and close the door they screw us which in turn screws the EU as we're part of it.

So its akin to not punching your obnoxious brother inlaw out at the Xmas Dinner for your sisters sake regardless of how much he might deserve the thump.

Sam Russell

GazzaL wrote: »

The biggest change will be the decrease in imports from GB and the products on offer in Ireland. Lots of Irish businesses have continued to trade as normal with British businesses, but that will all change with the looming paperwork mountain and tariffs.

If the GBP crashes, as is expected, then that will be another problem.

It has been testing 92p = €1. Just a reminder, 5 years ago it was 72p. That is a huge drop.

amacca

snowstorm445 wrote: »

What is the point of deadlines if they're not worth the paper they're written on? There was so much bluster about the sacrosanct importance of the withdrawal agreement deadlines last year and yet extensions were always granted without fail. This is despite all the obstacles which people imagined would be thrown up, such as the need for unanimity among the 27 - in reality, that dissent almost never materialises, and the few moments when it does, such as with Macron last year, there is bizarrely over-the-top backlash to it in the European Council.

The British government knows it will always be given extra time and that it can always get away with this sort of back and forth nonsense indefinitely, which also has the effect of boosting Johnson's domestic popularity, more than anything else (not that that is a concern of the EU but is still undesirable).

The EU has the potential to be a major player in the world, and it's leaders must be aware of what the rest of the world takes away from these negotiations. And in my opinion, while their willingness to prolong these talks indefinitely might seem upstanding to more well-intentioned people, to the rest of the world looking for opportunities to challenge their rivals, they must seem as weak as a wet noodle. Prolonging talks, seemingly clinging onto their former member for dear life while that former member indulges in all sorts of bluster and slander in the meantime. It's not just an external issue as well - the EU would do well to remember the crap that its own members get up to, Poland and Hungary in particular. If the UK can get away with ridiculous stunts and special treatment at the same time, they may get ideas of their own. If this has shown them anything, it's that the EU doesn't like putting its foot down or showing decisive action.

The EU is not the perfect operator that some here seem to be making out. They have been vastly more mature than the British in these negotiations, and of course they are sensible enough to seek ways to limit the economic damage, but they are not flawless. In my opinion they seem to suffer from poor judgement regarding their self-awareness and the image they present to the rest of the world.

I agree, enough is enough. Its time to put it up to the brexiters and give them what they wanted all along imo

If it was such a good idea they would be gone long ago. They painted themselves and their unfortunate citizens into this ridiculous corner and the longer its let drag on the more it potentially weakens the EU.

Setting deadlines the other side ignore, dont get their house in order for and probably deliberately aim to miss knowing you will relent and grant an extension is a bad look.

Its time for here's the deal, take it or leave it weve been incredibly patient through this process but we need to move on now. (Theyll come to their senses quick when its put up to them imo - bullies always do)

The longer they get to extend the more beneficial to them and the more hazardous for the EU. + it galls me to have johnsons and the brexiters position strenghtened in any way.

Firblog

joe40 wrote: »

There is an obvious arrangement. The Uk can continue tariff free trading with the EU if it adhere to the terms and conditions that all other EU countries adhere to. Both now and in the future.
Why would the countries of the EU deliberately put themselves at a disadvantage.

All the jingoistic patriotic nonsense is coming from the UK only. From day one the EU have been consistent.

From day one the EU have been consistent that the UK must adopt EU laws if they want to trade tariff free with the EU, well that's ok, the UK have been consistent that once they leave the EU they will make their own laws.



Why would UK agree to implement any EU laws without having input into them - they're not Norway.



That is the reason there is an impasse in the negotiations

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Post with insults deleted.

strandroad

Firblog wrote: »

From day one the EU have been consistent that the UK must adopt EU laws if they want to trade tariff free with the EU, well that's ok, the UK have been consistent that once they leave the EU they will make their own laws.

Why would UK agree to implement any EU laws without having input into them - they're not Norway.

That is the reason there is an impasse in the negotiations

It's not about EU laws though, it's about standards. If you want to sell into EU, you need to keep appropriate standards. If you don't wish to keep such standards, you can choose not to sell into EU.

PeadarCo

Firblog wrote: »

From day one the EU have been consistent that the UK must adopt EU laws if they want to trade tariff free with the EU, well that's ok, the UK have been consistent that once they leave the EU they will make their own laws.



Why would UK agree to implement any EU laws without having input into them - they're not Norway.



That is the reason there is an impasse in the negotiations

Well here's the thing if the UK doesn't want to follow EU laws that's no problem. However a consequence of not having to follow EU laws is a very bare bones trade agreement.

The impasse is because the UK wants/requires a substantial trade agreement with the EU without the costs ie adopting more EU laws.

The nature of any trade agreement is the broader the agreement is the more aligned both sides have to regulation/law wise and the bigger the process required to update the relevant regulations. This compromise is something the UK hasn't faced up to since brexit.

BorneTobyWilde

UK's laws wll align with the EU's . But the UK doesn't want it written in stone in the agreement. All about trust.

The Raging Bile Duct

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

UK's laws wll align with the EU's . But the UK doesn't want it written in stone in the agreement. All about trust.

Which the UK destroyed when the proposed the Internal Markets Bill.

fash

Firblog wrote: »

Why would UK agree to implement any EU laws without having input into them - they're not Norway.

That is correct: they are not a massively wealthy country that has vast natural resources and instead rely on the single market for their wealth. They would agree to implement EU law if they wished to maintain that wealth -and if not, they'd need to implement EU laws as they wouldn't have any wealth.

Irish Praetorian

Firblog wrote: »

Seriously now lads, where are you getting the figures that UK is 3rd biggest trading partner? (Irish Praetorian) on here is saying that Belgium is a bigger trading partner? Is that Belgium on its own or with Luxembourg tagged on? Post an aul link would you please? Heres a link to figures I'm using.

The figure in your link relates only to imports, the figure in my link (here again) is for trading partners, so imports and exports.

Irish Praetorian also very dismissive of the effect on fishing industry, says "Now that might well be unfortunate, but a sensible and sober approach to the situation might well value our exports of ink over our exports of fish" who cares about the 14000 odd jobs, it's all about the value eh? It's not about the value of the exports, it's what it contribute to the economy, people empolyed, communities that would be devastated with the loss of those jobs.

14 thousand, as compared with the 2.28 million we have employed in other capacities across the country? Do you imagine these people employed in supplying goods and services to the EU across this country, not have communities of their own also? Lets not beat around the bush here, lets get specific; what are you proposing we undertake? Some kind of Brexitesque move where we imperil the livelihoods of most industries on some outlandish plan to simultaneously take over the fishing trade of a swath of EU states and at the same time, sell those same fish onto the EU?

paul71

Firblog wrote: »

Forgive me please, I was referring to nation states.


I would hazard to guess (and it is a guess) that more jobs in Ireland depend on our trade with the UK than any other single country (just for clarity that I'm not referring to any trading bloc)

The withdrawal agreement puts NI outside the UK for tariff purposes, 3 billion of our exports go there. That puts the UK firmly in 4th place after USA, Belgium, Germany, and China in rapidly closing.

In addition to the nation states listed above 4 other countries in the single market each account for more than 3% of our exports.

93% of our exports do not go to the UK. I see no reason why you could make a guess that more jobs in Ireland are dependent the UK than any of those first 3 countries, in fact it is reasonable to guess the reverse is true given the low labour intensity of the nature of our exports there ie Agriculture not industrial.

Strazdas

A Spanish minister with extensive knowledge of trade made the excellent point today that using a trade deal to 'assert your sovereignty' is a total misunderstanding of the purpose of a trade deal.

The very fact that you are free to sign the trade deal shows you are sovereign. Trying to politicise it and make it about flags and sovereignty is nationalistic / xenophobic nonsense.

joe40

Firblog wrote: »

From day one the EU have been consistent that the UK must adopt EU laws if they want to trade tariff free with the EU, well that's ok, the UK have been consistent that once they leave the EU they will make their own laws.



Why would UK agree to implement any EU laws without having input into them - they're not Norway.



That is the reason there is an impasse in the negotiations

The Brexiteers were disingenuous about this leading up to the referendum. This was supposed to be the easiest trade deal in history.
Are they willing to admit they were either incompetent or corrupt in their assertions pre referendum.