Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

An Ciarraioch

It seems both sides have largely agreed over the LPF principles, and are now largely haggling over the arbitration mechanism:

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1214/1184260-brexit-talks-eu-uk/

Hard to believe that they would then promptly collapse everything if only fish was outstanding?

correct horse battery staple

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Well yes

We could have 100% employment in this country by forcing everyone to build stone walls out West, then knock them down and repeat
I for one would prefer not to have such a north korea style economy.

Employment in itself is not end all be all
But the quality of employment and its contribution to a reasonable expectation of a normal life by families

In UK we literally see people on dole who make the rational calculation of staying on it than picking up jobs they would see beneath them (such as picking fruit), why?

Economic activity is all about moving money around and getting a slice each time it passes via your hands.
So to a certain extent, is is economically viable (as stated by economists) to simply pay welfare to people and import cheaper labour as both groups will spend thus keeping the local businesses in existence.

In reality only an idiot (or someone with an ingrained work ethic) will do a paid job that provides less than what he could get on the social.

Widdensushi

Deleted User wrote: »

Economic activity is all about moving money around and getting a slice each time it passes via your hands.
So to a certain extent, is is economically viable (as stated by economists) to simply pay welfare to people and import cheaper labour as both groups will spend thus keeping the local businesses in existence.

In reality only an idiot (or someone with an ingrained work ethic) will do a paid job that provides less than what he could get on the social.

A pyramid scheme

correct horse battery staple

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

A pyramid scheme which gave you a computer to type your message on instead of spending your life foraging like our ancestors done for most of our history.

The same scheme that has enabled a small number of people to gain the same wealth as several small countries.
While millions of wage slaves barely earn enough to provide the essentials of life for themselves and family.

Globalism at its finest.

To keep the Brexit connection, this is one of the reasons the disadvantaged regions voted for it.

Leroy42

Deleted User wrote: »

The same scheme that has enabled a small number of people to gain the same wealth as several small countries.
While millions of wage slaves barely earn enough to provide the essentials of life for themselves and family.

Globalism at its finest.

To keep the Brexit connection, this is one of the reasons the disadvantaged regions voted for it.

Really? Because many would argue that it had nothing to do with the economy, that even know the pain and cost of No Deal are worth it.

If they did vote for it on that basis that at what point do they realise they have been duped?

Pinch Flat

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

It seems both sides have largely agreed over the LPF principles, and are now largely haggling over the arbitration mechanism:

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1214/1184260-brexit-talks-eu-uk/

Hard to believe that they would then promptly collapse everything if only fish was outstanding?

I've a feeling the fishing issue will be thrown under the bus at the 11th hour. Makes no sense to flush the UK economy down the toilet for something that contributes so little. Will upset the hard core brexiteers who hate to think Johnny foreigner is fishing their waters. But hard to see how it's workable currently.

ancapailldorcha

Pinch Flat wrote: »

I've a feeling the fishing issue will be thrown under the bus at the 11th hour. Makes no sense to flush the UK economy down the toilet for something that contributes so little. Will upset the hard core brexiteers who hate to think Johnny foreigner is fishing their waters. But hard to see how it's workable currently.

Neither side is going to abandon a trade deal because of fish. Johnson needs to look strong and unyielding on it but he's not going to eschew a trade deal in favour of an industry that contributes less to the UK's GDP than Harrods.

bobmalooka

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

It seems both sides have largely agreed over the LPF principles, and are now largely haggling over the arbitration mechanism:

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1214/1184260-brexit-talks-eu-uk/

Hard to believe that they would then promptly collapse everything if only fish was outstanding?

It was flagged weeks ago fishing was being primed as being what Boris would “win”. It’s starting to look like those predictions are accurate.

politically he needs to be able to hold up something as a win to have any chance of moving the domestic narrative forward. Plenty would like to see UK learn their (relative) standing with the EU27 the hard way. The reality is that this would cause harm to everyone - and I’m pretty sure the lessons about humiliating a country have not been forgotten yet on mainland Europe. With that in mind it would be reckless not to offer some form of route to a deal which can be sold as palatable for the sake of moving on.

Gun boat briefings and all the rest might just have been a useful tool to increase the value of that win domestically. Johnson will be hailed by the tabloids as a mastermind for extracting some fish based on acting tough. None of them will mention that they burned all their influence and soft power in the process.

robindch

lawred2 wrote: »

Some great gains being made if you were a connected currency trader with an inside track on these Brexit talks.. I'm sure none such people exist though

No doubt there are no such people this time. But in 2016, there were plenty of people who shorted Sterling prior to the vote and made a fortune, especially after Farage falsely claimed that Remain had won the vote, causing Sterling - predictably - first to rise, then drop sharply:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/25/nigel-farage-denies-shorting-value-of-sterling-on-night-of-brexit-vote
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash

ltd440

If Johnson gets his so called big win on fish it will be interesting to pick through the details afterwards to see what he sacrificed.

No such thing as a big win in trade negotiations

breezy1985

ltd440 wrote: »

If Johnson gets his so called big win on fish it will be interesting to pick through the details afterwards to see what he sacrificed.

No such thing as a big win in trade negotiations

All he needs is something to make a Daily Mail headline with. Most people don't bother with the details so his fan base will see a victory and no boring facts will change minds

weemcd

breezy1985 wrote: »

All he needs is something to make a Daily Mail headline with. Most people don't bother with the details so his fan base will see a victory and no boring facts will change minds

Never let the truth get in the way of a good yarn!

Dymo

ltd440 wrote: »

If Johnson gets his so called big win on fish it will be interesting to pick through the details afterwards to see what he sacrificed.

No such thing as a big win in trade negotiations

I think that's where the "Victory" will come, there will be some deadline expanded or quota changed and that's all that matters, at this stage fish has been so highly publicised the slightest change will be seen as a win Boris can claim.

Leroy42

bobmalooka wrote: »

It was flagged weeks ago fishing was being primed as being what Boris would “win”. It’s starting to look like those predictions are accurate.

politically he needs to be able to hold up something as a win to have any chance of moving the domestic narrative forward. Plenty would like to see UK learn their (relative) standing with the EU27 the hard way. The reality is that this would cause harm to everyone - and I’m pretty sure the lessons about humiliating a country have not been forgotten yet on mainland Europe. With that in mind it would be reckless not to offer some form of route to a deal which can be sold as palatable for the sake of moving on.

Gun boat briefings and all the rest might just have been a useful tool to increase the value of that win domestically. Johnson will be hailed by the tabloids as a mastermind for extracting some fish based on acting tough. None of them will mention that they burned all their influence and soft power in the process.

At almost every stage, a few missteps admittadely, the EU have done their best to help the UK through the process. The laid out the terms from the start, agreed to transitions, moved deadlines, allowed Johnson 'win' the WA.

EU did not want this to be still a thing this late in the day. THey wanted it solved much earlier, but they learnt the lesson of TM getting hammered in the HoC because they failed to see that she had failed to sell the deal.

But the EU can only do so much.

breezy1985

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Globalism is exactly what made UK one of the richest countries in the world, and especially London.

Just like Trumpists in US, Brexit vote was a vote by simple people with simple ideas and romanticised memories of a world long gone (with a bit of racism thrown in by some), you might say this is condencending but it is what it is.

Brexit is a giant step back which will hurt those "left behind" people the most. Is already hurting those people.

You might be happy to get onto the "blame globalisation" bandwagon but globalisation is not the cause of UKs problem, that much is plainly obvious by ust looking across the Irish sea at us here in Ireland.

Their problems lie in a fundamentally undemocratic system with no constitution, first past the post, a monarch as head of state, herediatry unelected upper house and the parliament itself being disconnected from the electorate by containing mostly etonians. Nothing to do with globalisation as theres plenty of very successful globalised countries.

Leaving the EU makes the "left behind" areas more reliant on the government that left them behind which is why I find the Brexit vote in Wales, Yorkshire and the likes so baffling

Henryq.

breezy1985 wrote: »

Leaving the EU makes the "left behind" areas more reliant on the government that left them behind which is why I find the Brexit vote in Wales, Yorkshire and the likes so baffling

100%

That was the problem. They gave people the vote and they didn't know what they were voting for.

joe40

Leroy42 wrote: »

At almost every stage, a few missteps admittadely, the EU have done their best to help the UK through the process. The laid out the terms from the start, agreed to transitions, moved deadlines, allowed Johnson 'win' the WA.

EU did not want this to be still a thing this late in the day. THey wanted it solved much earlier, but they learnt the lesson of TM getting hammered in the HoC because they failed to see that she had failed to sell the deal.

But the EU can only do so much.

Absolutely baffling. What I find particularly galling is that not one of the Brexiteers will own the fact that leaving the EU is a complex and costly undertaking.
All these issues are been basically described as EU bitterness and a desire to exert control over the EU. It is a trade deal between independant entities each have an obligation to get the best possible deal for their people.

The UK will be outside the EU, the EU have an obligation to look after the EU. The UK have an obligation to look after the UK.

Nothing to do with fairness or sovereignty all that nonsense is solely coming from the UK.

Leroy42

And of course, the likes of Redwood and Farage keep talking about when the leave. The UK has left, but the EU, mainly for their won benefit but also partially to help the UK, agreed to a transition, and would have extended it further had the UK had the sense to request it.

So at this stage the UK left without a trade deal, and now are outside looking for a special deal to let them back in, but on their terms.

With less than a month to go, where are all the amazing things that are going to happen on 1st January? What laws are going change? Surely they must have an idea of the benefits?

And taking back control was such a massive line, so much so that Johnson now will leave no time for the scrutiny of any deal he may make with the WU y the HoC. It will be rushed through (if a deal is made).

johnnyskeleton

Mod note:

Play the ball not the man please

AutoTuning

The unfortunate part is that for all the rhetoric of 'taking back control,' they now have less control than they did as one of the largest countries in the EU. They now face a rather harsh reality of having to operate in a world of rules based trade that's dominated by three big players: The US, China and the EU and in many cases the EU's standards, regulations and rules of trade are adopted far beyond its borders.

If, for example, there's a need to regulate a major IT company like Google, it will be anti-trust legislation in the US or the EU (and likely both) that will bring it to heel. The UK won't even be at the party. It's the same on global financial regulations, taxation issues, customs standards, a raft of technical standards etc etc. Most of those are driven by the EU and US. It'll be a reference to some US federal agency or the European Commission that tends to drive all of those norms.

They've taken back control in much the same way as going self-employed and leaving your trade union gives you far less bargaining power. You can sell it as flexibility, but in reality it means you're in a far weaker position.

It's bizarre that the Tories seem to be no longer willing to listen to the concerns of business or any of those who actually know what they're talking about when it comes to the practical implications of what they're doing. All of the pragmatists seem to have been silenced by that almost McCarthyism type approach that's been taken where anyone who's pointing out that there are huge problems with the approach to Brexit that has been taken are simply torn apart by the Tabloids and campaigners. The result has been that the debate turned into a one sided, nationalistic rally the troops type of narrative, rather than a proper discussion.

It's probably the most irresponsible, non-facts based period of British government that we've ever witnessed in modern history. I may not have agreed with various British PMs and cabinets' views of the world over the years, but at least they were usually firmly rooted in some kind of logic. This stuff is just pure jingoism and they haven't been able to provide any evidence of what they are doing is good for the UK.

Even if they get a deal now before January, it will be rushed and bare bones at best. However, if the Tory leadership has anything to do with it, it looks like we will be seeing a chaotic exit.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Take the general globalism discussion to a new thread please.

Strazdas

breezy1985 wrote: »

Leaving the EU makes the "left behind" areas more reliant on the government that left them behind which is why I find the Brexit vote in Wales, Yorkshire and the likes so baffling

A straightforward theory would be brainwashing by the liars and crooks of the right wing press. Tabloid readership would be high in those areas.

Firblog

Leroy42 wrote: »

It isn't about whether it is fair or not. That is the price that the EU have put on access to the market. They are taking advantage of the fact that the UK made it such a massive issue when in reality it ner was.

Is it fair that the price of a new car is €30K? I don't personally think so, but there are plenty of people willing to pay that, and a hell of a lot more, for a new car. That is the deal. If I want a new car that is the price.

The UK went into this without ever working out the price they were willing to pay. They knew that the price of EU membership, not just monetarily, was too high, but they never actually knew, and still don't want a fair price was. Hence the massive infighting and historic mutiny during TM's time as PM.

Should they keep 80% of the fish? It seems really high when you put it simply like that, but how much of that 80% is accounted for by foreign vessels operating with UK licences sold to them? How much of that 80% are the UK fleet missing out on? Could they catch it instead? If they catch it, could they sell it in the UK? What about into the EU if tariffs are applied?

The issue, as brought up in a sky news interview the other day by a Spanish minister, is that trade talks are not the place to demand sovereignty. Being at the trade talks in the 1st place shows sovereignty. The EU is not going to hold trade talks with you or me! Trade talks are where two sovereign countries discussed way to increase interdependence, to pool their sovereignty in some cases, for their mutual benefit. The Uk seem to want all of the benefits but none of the costs

But what is the offer that the EU should be making? According to many Brexiteers, they want full and complete control of their waters, their laws, their borders. Very little about cooperation. However, they do want the EU to recognise the UK rules, buy the fish from their waters. They want control but cannot understand why anyone else would want it.

That's it exactly its nothing to do with fairness it is to do with trying to get the best result for your side that you can; yet plenty on here are constantly berating the UK side for trying to do just that, like a mob booing the villain at a pantomime and cheering on their hero.



Of course UK wants control of their waters, same as the EU has of our waters, and Norwegians have of theirs. Why should they be different?



Perhaps you're right that the UK went into this not knowing what they were willing to pay; however they knew what they weren't willing to pay and seem to have stuck to their guns so far - apart from the obvious detachment of NI.



I fully expect the UK to give on the fisheries end of things - not as much as they are being asked for tho, when the EU agrees mechanisms for resolving trade issues that may arise in the future.


When that happens I think that UK will have succeeded in getting a very good deal for itself, much better than many posters on boards would have thought it would (or wanted it to) get. And lets face it the better the deal the UK gets the better it will be for Ireland.

listermint

Firblog wrote: »

That's it exactly its nothing to do with fairness it is to do with trying to get the best result for your side that you can; yet plenty on here are constantly berating the UK side for trying to do just that, like a mob booing the villain at a pantomime and cheering on their hero.



Of course UK wants control of their waters, same as the EU has of our waters, and Norwegians have of theirs. Why should they be different?



Perhaps you're right that the UK went into this not knowing what they were willing to pay; however they knew what they weren't willing to pay and seem to have stuck to their guns so far - apart from the obvious detachment of NI.



I fully expect the UK to give on the fisheries end of things - not as much as they are being asked for tho, when the EU agrees mechanisms for resolving trade issues that may arise in the future.


When that happens I think that UK will have succeeded in getting a very good deal for itself, much better than many posters on boards would have thought it would (or wanted it to) get. And lets face it the better the deal the UK gets the better it will be for Ireland.

That's all grand they can do what they want in terms of of best result for themselves.


We don't have to listen to it though. They're a 3rd country.

The end. Finito. Whatever happens after that they have put themselves firmly out there with a begging cup.

Henryq.

The British want zero tariffs and quotas lol

I bet they do ,who wouldn't

Firblog

bobmalooka wrote: »

Johnson will be hailed by the tabloids as a mastermind for extracting some fish based on acting tough. None of them will mention that they burned all their influence and soft power in the process.

Just ask David Cameron how much good "influence and soft power" did him in negotiations with the EU

Leroy42

Exactly. The UK stated all of this on the basis that they would get everything they wanted and have to offer nothing in return.

Nothing would change, except for £350m per week to the NHS. THen the EU laid out the actual conditions, and since then the UK have been internally fighting over which ones to accept.

Johnson continues to state that they will walk away, that no PM could agree to the conditions, but has yet to actually walk away.

The problem lies with the UK. They have shown, particularly with the WA, that apart from total capitulation to all their demands, nothing will appease the UK demands.

A better dea for the UK is in the short term interests of Ireland for sure, but depending on the deal, maybe not so in terms of the longer term. If the UK was to get unfettered, unregulated access to the EU, then Ireland in particular would be at a significant disadvantage.

The UK have stated that they want to compete with the EU, that includes Ireland

fly_agaric

Firblog wrote: »

And lets face it the better the deal the UK gets the better it will be for Ireland.

You are incorrect about this. There is a cut off point.
If the "deal" the UK gets is good enough that it results in a weakening of the EU down the line that is a bad outcome for Ireland.

For one I don't fancy Ireland's chances out on its own with a "good neighbour" like the UK in an EU-less word to be honest.

I also don't trust the type of politicians we love to elect here without someone checking their work on some issues. For example I think being a member of the EU raised governance standards here, reduced corruption, improved environmental standards etc.

Leroy42

Firblog wrote: »

Just ask David Cameron how much good "influence and soft power" did him in negotiations with the EU

Cameron did get some concessions from the EU, as the UK have done throughout its time in the union. But it didn't, and couldn't, get everything it wanted as that would have been unworkable in respect of the union as a whole.

But instead of seeing the concessions for the win that they were, they saw the 'failure' to get 100% as a kick in the teeth and threw it back at the EU.

Yet you think the EU should now bend over to offer more to the UK?

Enzokk

Wonder how the likes of the ERG is going to react when they learn that Johnson had to make concessions to get a deal?

Brexit trade deal possible within days after Johnson concession, says EU

A post-Brexit trade and security deal could be sealed as early as this week after Boris Johnson made a key concession at the weekend but the pathway to agreement remains “very narrow”, Michel Barnier has told ambassadors and MEPs in Brussels.

The EU’s chief negotiator said the prime minister’s acceptance of the need to ensure that there is fair competition for British and European businesses as regulatory standards diverge over time had unlocked the talks despite difficult issues remaining.

“For the first time,” Barnier said, the UK government had “accepted a mechanism of unilateral measures”, such as tariffs, where there were “systemic divergences which distort trade and investment”.

Johnson I suspect will need Labour to either vote for his deal or have them abstain to get it through. He will either get no-deal or he is going to have to compromise a lot to get his deal.