Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Firblog

listermint wrote: »

That's all grand they can do what they want in terms of of best result for themselves.


We don't have to listen to it though. They're a 3rd country.

The end. Finito. Whatever happens after that they have put themselves firmly out there with a begging cup.

Don't be silly, of course you'll have to listen to it, if you watch any news, read any British or Irish papers you'll have to listen to it.



You may like to think what they do won't affect us, you wish what they do won't affect us, but thinking and wishing it won't make it so.


Yes being outside with the begging bowl, so different from us being inside with one - remember when UK bunged us 5bn at very low interest rates while our great Eurozone (German) partners raped us with 6% interest on the loans they gave us? Good times.

breezy1985

Leroy42 wrote: »

Cameron did get some concessions from the EU, as the UK have done throughout its time in the union. But it didn't, and couldn't, get everything it wanted as that would have been unworkable in respect of the union as a whole.

But instead of seeing the concessions for the win that they were, they saw the 'failure' to get 100% as a kick in the teeth and threw it back at the EU.

Yet you think the EU should now bend over to offer more to the UK?

I always felt the concessions were designed to fail

Henryq.

breezy1985 wrote: »

I always felt the concessions were designed to fail

The EU has their redlines

The rest is all noise

Enzokk

breezy1985 wrote: »

I always felt the concessions were designed to fail

You are right, the MP's that have been fighting for a referendum for years was not going to let some concessions Cameron got stop them from what they have been fighting for. No matter what he brought back it wouldn't have been enough, ever.

Rrrrrr2

Enzokk wrote: »

Wonder how the likes of the ERG is going to react when they learn that Johnson had to make concessions to get a deal?

Brexit trade deal possible within days after Johnson concession, says EU



Johnson I suspect will need Labour to either vote for his deal or have them abstain to get it through. He will either get no-deal or he is going to have to compromise a lot to get his deal.

Johnson made too big a deal of the negotiations re level playing field- if his team had just quietly negotiated these rather than leading the Brexit lynch mob to the top of a hill and soon to be back down again it would have been far easier- he’s now given them a new angle to obsess over “we’re bound to EU rules etc forever” type rubbish. So any compromise is much harder to sell now again. An utter turnip and bodes very poorly for these famed trade deals with other parties they wish to pursue

listermint

Firblog wrote: »

Don't be silly, of course you'll have to listen to it, if you watch any news, read any British or Irish papers you'll have to listen to it.



You may like to think what they do won't affect us, you wish what they do won't affect us, but thinking and wishing it won't make it so.


Yes being outside with the begging bowl, so different from us being inside with one - remember when UK bunged us 5bn at very low interest rates while our great Eurozone (German) partners raped us with 6% interest on the loans they gave us? Good times.

Just have to scratch slightly beneath the surface to see it but I got there.

I wouldn't say rabid anti EU. But bears all the hallmarks of someone who's clueless about the impact it's had in this country. Also takes it all for granted from his position of privilege.

Henryq.

The UK is not going to accept "dynamic alignment" with EU law according to Rte

They'll have to

peter kern

Firblog wrote: »

That's it exactly its nothing to do with fairness it is to do with trying to get the best result for your side that you can; yet plenty on here are constantly berating the UK side for trying to do just that, like a mob booing the villain at a pantomime and cheering on their hero.



Of course UK wants control of their waters, same as the EU has of our waters, and Norwegians have of theirs. Why should they be different?



Perhaps you're right that the UK went into this not knowing what they were willing to pay; however they knew what they weren't willing to pay and seem to have stuck to their guns so far - apart from the obvious detachment of NI.



I fully expect the UK to give on the fisheries end of things - not as much as they are being asked for tho, when the EU agrees mechanisms for resolving trade issues that may arise in the future.


When that happens I think that UK will have succeeded in getting a very good deal for itself, much better than many posters on boards would have thought it would (or wanted it to) get. And lets face it the better the deal the UK gets the better it will be for Ireland.

you dont know , what you dont want to pay.
one country in your union clearly wants to stay in the EU.

fash

Firblog wrote: »

Just ask David Cameron how much good "influence and soft power" did him in negotiations with the EU

It did him rather a lot of good actually. His problem is that he deliberately untethered the UK from the political block in power in the EU to align with crazies, resulting in him lacking in intelligence as to what was reasonably feasible, then massively oversold what was possible to the people back home so came back with less than he had promised. Pure arrogant stupidity.

BlitzKrieg

Firblog wrote: »

Just ask David Cameron how much good "influence and soft power" did him in negotiations with the EU

David Cameron was an <SNIP. No insults please> who didnt realize that where he was losing power was at home and not at the EU level.

What he didnt realize was to appease the euroskeptic wing of his party he actually cut the influence of the conservative party over and over in the institutions in the european union. Their MEPs went from having influence in the EPP to having a fraction of that in the ECHR. He appointed ministers who didnt realize and didnt care for the council of ministers role so the UK went unrepresented.

The UK swung from being one of the stronger entities in the EU structure, practically being a lawmaker for all of europe to a impotent influence.

Not because europe turned their back on the UK, or Cameron's soft power was too weak.

But because his own party burned his own base in europe and blamed the rest of us for the loss of influence.

Sam Russell

If the UK wish to export Widgets to the EU, will the widgets have to carry the CE mark? And if they do, who gives it to them?

So, f its the EU, standards will be maintained for products.

So he LPF is to do with labour standards and state aid - harder to police, but the WTO has similar rules. So LPF is more to do with policing it, and there's the rub. How do yo prove sweat heart deals with, say Nissan? Is it state aid, or support for a distressed region?

Just look at the Apple tax case.

I think the EU are giving too much ground. There is no trust left - none.

Firblog

peter kern wrote: »

you dont know , what you dont want to pay.
one country in your union clearly wants to stay in the EU.

Heads up, this will probably wreck your head, I'm Irish born and bred and live in Ireland, no affiliation to UK, never even lived there.

fash

Firblog wrote: »

Don't be silly, of course you'll have to listen to it, if you watch any news, read any British or Irish papers you'll have to listen to it.



You may like to think what they do won't affect us, you wish what they do won't affect us, but thinking and wishing it won't make it so.


Yes being outside with the begging bowl, so different from us being inside with one - remember when UK bunged us 5bn at very low interest rates while our great Eurozone (German) partners raped us with 6% interest on the loans they gave us? Good timels.

The UK loan at 5.8% (in fact higher than the "rape-y" 5.5% charged by EU) to cover Ulster bank (a UK bank's) debts- to which the UK was the only entity to refuse to allow Ireland to repay the loan early as they were making so much money on it?
You mean that loan? If you consider the EU's behaviour "rape" - I assume you consider that the Uk's behaviour is better described as "rape, torture, throat-slitting then s**ting down the gaping hole".

Nody

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the UK wish to export Widgets to the EU, will the widgets have to carry the CE mark? And if they do, who gives it to them?

Yes and an EU certified laboratory or similar depending on the goods. This can be in a non EU country if EU recognizes the quality of their process and certification.

So, f its the EU, standards will be maintained for products.

That's the theory yes.

So he LPF is to do with labour standards and state aid - harder to police, but the WTO has similar rules. So LPF is more to do with policing it, and there's the rub. How do yo prove sweat heart deals with, say Nissan? Is it state aid, or support for a distressed region?

There are certain rules around such support to qualify; how and to whom it's paid out etc. and a route to report it and say it's not for arbitration. That's the sticking point more than anything apparently; who and how can they arbitrate and what fines can be imposed. If we take the WTO court for example a country gets the right to retaliate for X million in tariffs on any goods; UK wants this to be only in the same category as the goods themselves.

An Claidheamh

Firblog wrote: »

Don't be silly, of course you'll have to listen to it, if you watch any news, read any British or Irish papers you'll have to listen to it.



You may like to think what they do won't affect us, you wish what they do won't affect us, but thinking and wishing it won't make it so.


Yes being outside with the begging bowl, so different from us being inside with one - remember when UK bunged us 5bn at very low interest rates while our great Eurozone (German) partners raped us with 6% interest on the loans they gave us? Good times.

How could we forget? UK won’t shut up about it

You would swear they weren’t trying to get us to keep afloat their banking interests ....


What I do remember more is though, they control of the North and use of return of the troubles as a bargaining chip, their alignment with loyalist, their anti-Irish media and their obnoxious ignorant nationalism and eternal victim hood.

A border and a disunited EU affects us more than a second rate regional power on the brink of dissolution begging for a trade deal to save their own skins ( with an economic block they tried to destroy )

McFly85

Firblog wrote: »

That's it exactly its nothing to do with fairness it is to do with trying to get the best result for your side that you can; yet plenty on here are constantly berating the UK side for trying to do just that, like a mob booing the villain at a pantomime and cheering on their hero.



Of course UK wants control of their waters, same as the EU has of our waters, and Norwegians have of theirs. Why should they be different?



Perhaps you're right that the UK went into this not knowing what they were willing to pay; however they knew what they weren't willing to pay and seem to have stuck to their guns so far - apart from the obvious detachment of NI.



I fully expect the UK to give on the fisheries end of things - not as much as they are being asked for tho, when the EU agrees mechanisms for resolving trade issues that may arise in the future.


When that happens I think that UK will have succeeded in getting a very good deal for itself, much better than many posters on boards would have thought it would (or wanted it to) get. And lets face it the better the deal the UK gets the better it will be for Ireland.

The UK trying to get the best deal they can is understandable, but what they want is completely at odds with geopolitical reality.

Completely outside of their control, the UKs closest 27 neighbouring countries trade and negotiate with pooled resources that make them significantly larger than the UK. The UK wish to compete with this bloc but also trade with zero tariffs and to use the EUs supply chains to help enable them to compete. There is absolutely no chance the EU would allow this, no country would.

So they have 2 options. Accept alignment or trade with significant tariffs. It’s not an ideal choice for them, but the only way for them to get anywhere close to what they’d actually want is for the EU to not exist.

joe40

An Claidheamh wrote: »

How could we forget? UK won’t shut up about it

You would swear they weren’t trying to get us to keep afloat their banking interests ....


What I do remember more is though, they control of the North and use of return of the troubles as a bargaining chip, their alignment with loyalist, their anti-Irish media and their obnoxious ignorant nationalism and eternal victim hood.

A border and a disunited EU affects us more than a second rate regional power on the brink of dissolution begging for a trade deal to save their own skins ( with an economic block they tried to destroy )

All that is true. I also feel sorry for the millions of Brits who don't want to have anything to do with this nonsense. Brexit was only passed by the slimmest of majorities plus because of the UK electoral system although the tories have a massive majority in the Commons the majority of people in the UK did not vote tory.

I have a lot of respect and admiration for many in the the UK but a toxic media have done a lot of damage over the years.

moon2

fash wrote: »

I assume you consider that the Uk's behaviour is better described as <something inappropriate>

Your point was well, and accurately, made without the fairly obscene analogy. I know it was responding in-kind... but...
<Apologies for backseat moderating />

Christy42

McFly85 wrote: »

The UK trying to get the best deal they can is understandable, but what they want is completely at odds with geopolitical reality.

Completely outside of their control, the UKs closest 27 neighbouring countries trade and negotiate with pooled resources that make them significantly larger than the UK. The UK wish to compete with this bloc but also trade with zero tariffs and to use the EUs supply chains to help enable them to compete. There is absolutely no chance the EU would allow this, no country would.

So they have 2 options. Accept alignment or trade with significant tariffs. It’s not an ideal choice for them, but the only way for them to get anywhere close to what they’d actually want is for the EU to not exist.

I would add that all prominent brexiters promised alignment before the referendum (you would have to be mad to leave the single market, Norway style deal etc.)

Firblog

fash wrote: »

The UK loan at 5.8% (in fact higher than the "rape-y" 5.5% charged by EU) to cover Ulster bank (a UK bank's) debts- to which the UK was the only entity to refuse to allow Ireland to repay the loan early as they were making so much money on it?
You mean that loan? If you consider the EU's behaviour "rape" - I assume you consider that the Uk's behaviour is better described as "rape, torture, throat-slitting then s**ting down the gaping hole".

I don't know where you got that info, I remember reading a couple of years ago that UK loaned us the money at an interest rate .25% above the rate they had to pay on loans. Then they reduced it to 0.18% above what they paid link to that here - quote from the article below

"Mark Hoban, Financial Secretary to the Treasury, told MPs in Westminster today that the new interest rate is the UK cost of funds plus 0.18%, with the cost of funds calculated on the average UK borrowing costs. Based on today's rates that would give an approximate rate of 0.95%."

Now back in 2010 the Germans were paying a rate of a little over 3% (link here) and charging us 5.5% - according to your figures, so they were getting nearly twice as much in interest as they were paying to borrow? Nice work if you can get it - not Wonga / loan shark territory but not mates rates either..

Also you say that the UK loaned us the money to 'cover Ulster Bank' now I'm not 100% on this but I thought that UK bailed out NatWest - Ulster Bank parent, and we didn't put any dough into it, Wouldn't we own some of it? This says we don't, can you post a link that says we bailed out ulster? As I say I'm not 100%, it was a decade ago, but are you really sure what you say is correct?

unit 1

Correct me if I am wrong but was'nt there a clause in the loan agreement that said that "Ireland could not leave the EU", for what reason I do not know.

Fionn1952

Firblog wrote: »

I don't know where you got that info, I remember reading a couple of years ago that UK loaned us the money at an interest rate .25% above the rate they had to pay on loans. Then they reduced it to 0.18% above what they paid link to that here - quote from the article below

"Mark Hoban, Financial Secretary to the Treasury, told MPs in Westminster today that the new interest rate is the UK cost of funds plus 0.18%, with the cost of funds calculated on the average UK borrowing costs. Based on today's rates that would give an approximate rate of 0.95%."

Now back in 2010 the Germans were paying a rate of a little over 3% (link here) and charging us 5.5% - according to your figures, so they were getting nearly twice as much in interest as they were paying to borrow? Nice work if you can get it - not Wonga / loan shark territory but not mates rates either..

Also you say that the UK loaned us the money to 'cover Ulster Bank' now I'm not 100% on this but I thought that UK bailed out NatWest - Ulster Bank parent, and we didn't put any dough into it, Wouldn't we own some of it? This says we don't, can you post a link that says we bailed out ulster? As I say I'm not 100%, it was a decade ago, but are you really sure what you say is correct?

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-14256280

The UK cut interest from 5.8% to 3.5%, after the Eurozone banks cut their interest rates from 5.5% to the same ballpark. It was entirely accurate to state that when the loans were issued, and Germany was, 'raping' Ireland with 5.5% interest rates, Britain (historically known for always having Irish interest at heart....) were charging a higher interest rate of 5.8%. It is also true that the UK refused Ireland's offer of early repayment to continue the substantial interest payments they were receiving (as was entirely their right, but let's not pretend it was an altruistic move).

It is entirely dishonest to compare the UK rate after it was reduced to the Eurozone rate before it was reduced.

RobMc59

joe40 wrote: »

All that is true. I also feel sorry for the millions of Brits who don't want to have anything to do with this nonsense. Brexit was only passed by the slimmest of majorities plus because of the UK electoral system although the tories have a massive majority in the Commons the majority of people in the UK did not vote tory.

I have a lot of respect and admiration for many in the the UK but a toxic media have done a lot of damage over the years.

Correct me if I`m wrong but is`nt it likely any potential deal would be time limited? Which means if anyone is`nt happy with the way it`s working out it can be revisited down the line.This is great because the only disgruntled parties would be extreme brexiteers and those who hate the UK,both who seem intent on squabbling over who is `winning`, who is `over a barrel` who is going to `eat humble pie`or other such drivel.
It`s obvious no deal is the last thing the UK needs right now and a deal would be the best for all(except extremist brexiteers and UK haters)the moderate people in the UK see this and I`ve noticed posters here saying the same thing.

Henryq.

Christy42 wrote: »

I would add that all prominent brexiters promised alignment before the referendum (you would have to be mad to leave the single market, Norway style deal etc.)

Did they really?

Was farage one of them where's he hiding now?

Hurrache

Firblog wrote: »

I don't know where you got that info

It's easily found. Ireland didn't pay off the UK early as the UK would have triggered a £200 million early closure clause.

For an Irishman you're displaying a bit of an inferiority complex and self loathing when it comes to dealing with the UK.

breezy1985

Henryq. wrote: »

Did they really?

Was farage one of them where's he hiding now?

Farage was on question time more than once saying UK would have a deal like Norway.

Before the vote "look at Norway" was one of his catchphrases

10000maniacs

I really can't see there being any deal. I can't see any way over Macron. The French fishermen are willing and capable of bringing the Euro-ports to a standstill, and that's what the French are good at. Mass protest.

Professor Moriarty

breezy1985 wrote: »

Farage was on question time more than once saying UK would have a deal like Norway.

Before the vote "look at Norway" was one of his catchphrases

“I don't listen to music, I don't watch television, I don't read."

Nigel Farage

Henryq.

breezy1985 wrote: »

Farage was on question time more than once saying UK would have a deal like Norway.

Before the vote "look at Norway" was one of his catchphrases

Like Norway needed a deal

Spanish Eyes

I personally think the mood music has changed somewhat, so hopeful of some sort of a deal. Obviously hoping this to lessen the effect of No Deal on Ireland.

Anyway, I presume deal or not, the UK will be a Third Country come 1.1 2021.

I get the feeling from UK fora that a deal will mean free movement and nothing will change and all that. Huh? It is Trade only surely.