Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Hurrache

Still wouldn't get my hopes up as this is not the first time there's been rumours of an impending deal that the Brexiteers would be happy with.

Enzokk

Hurrache wrote: »

Still wouldn't get my hopes up as this is not the first time there's been rumours of an impending deal that the Brexiteers would be happy with.

Agree, the devil is in the details and until analysis has been provided of what is in the deal and not just what the UK government is trying to sell it as, we just have to wait and see before knowing if it is likely to pass.

McGiver

trellheim wrote:

I think so too - I had a quick (if there can be such a thing) look through Lisbon treaty and it seems council are what matters.

As per the Treaties, yes. But that's not the whole picture.

The EP has been more assertive in general, for quite some time, and rightly so. There's a power struggle dynamics in play here (between the Council and the Parliament, and to some degree the Commission too).

Council simply ignoring or bypassing the EP would be risky for the Council, and problematic, EP would get pissed off for sure, they made their position clear. So I'm not sure the Council would want to deal with this internal political fallout just to placate the Brits, Barnier or whomever.

TLDR - there's intra-EU dynamics at play as well, which adds additional complications to the whole situation.

BorneTobyWilde

What are the insurance companies doing with all the trucks that travel to and from UK weekly? Will insurance still be valid in the even of a trade deal, or no trade deal?

Henryq.

This thing will never end

When the deal is done it won't be long before the disputes and wrangling start about UK compliance

looksee

I have been chasing up something that I was hoping to get delivered before Jan 1st for a while now. The expected delivery date (to the store) keeps limping on. Now I am being told 2nd week in January. Every mortal thing that goes wrong anywhere will be blamed on Brexit/Covid.

Cheensbo

Working in an industry here, using a basic commodity (steel)

Whatever happened between yesterday and today - pretty much all of our UK based suppliers seem to have had a serious fright, none able to guarantee deliveries between now and xmas for orders already placed, and most not taking orders for January at all...


Great.



One interesting nugget from a major supplier - was that a lot of their UK-IRL transport is done by "backloads" from unrelated EU deliveries, there has already been a serious reduction in their availability - because the trucks are already bypassing the landbridge..

Going Strong

Cheensbo wrote: »

Working in a primary industry here, using a basic commodity (steel)

Whatever happened between yesterday and today - pretty much all of our UK based suppliers seem to have had a serious fright, none able to guarantee deliveries between now and xmas for orders already placed, and most not taking orders for January at all...


Great.



One interesting nugget from a major supplier - was that a lot of their UK-IRL transport is done by "backloads" from unrelated EU deliveries, there has already been a serious reduction in their availability - because the trucks are already bypassing the landbridge..

My brother has a construction business and has said that materials which they used to get from UK suppliers have pretty much dried up over the past month. He's been told either "Maybe in the new year" or "No chance, take your custom elsewhere."

Strazdas

Many trade specialists with knowledge of customs and borders think GB could see massive disruption at its borders for three to six months (maybe even longer). This is not something that will simply settle down after a couple of weeks.

CelticRambler

Cheensbo wrote: »

One interesting nugget from a major supplier - was that a lot of their UK-IRL transport is done by "backloads" from unrelated EU deliveries, there has already been a serious reduction in their availability - because the trucks are already bypassing the landbridge..

Going Strong wrote: »

My brother has a construction business and has said that materials which they used to get from UK suppliers have pretty much dried up over the past month. He's been told either "Maybe in the new year" or "No chance, take your custom elsewhere."

These two comments would seem to back up the forecasts by some contributors that Irish businesses will be hit hard by a dependence on the UK (suppliers and, presumably, customers) that they haven't weaned themselves off. I know there are definitely some Irish people who've adopted the same attitude as many in Britain: ah, sure it'll be grand. If I didn't live 600km from the nearest ferry to Ireland, I'd seriously consider setting myself up as a continental fulfilment centre.

Widdensushi

Cheensbo wrote: »

Working in a primary industry here, using a basic commodity (steel)

Whatever happened between yesterday and today - pretty much all of our UK based suppliers seem to have had a serious fright, none able to guarantee deliveries between now and xmas for orders already placed, and most not taking orders for January at all...


Great.



One interesting nugget from a major supplier - was that a lot of their UK-IRL transport is done by "backloads" from unrelated EU deliveries, there has already been a serious reduction in their availability - because the trucks are already bypassing the landbridge..

I would regard mining the steel as the primary industry, using it to manufacture as secondary, pedantic I know and maybe I picked you up wrong in that you are using it in another primary industry.

Henryq.

CelticRambler wrote: »

These two comments would seem to back up the forecasts by some contributors that Irish businesses will be hit hard by a dependence on the UK (suppliers and, presumably, customers) that they haven't weaned themselves off. I know there are definitely some Irish people who've adopted the same attitude as many in Britain: ah, sure it'll be grand. If I didn't live 600km from the nearest ferry to Ireland, I'd seriously consider setting myself up as a continental fulfilment centre.

I'm thinking disruption won't be long term

Few weeks and trade back to near normal

Capt'n Midnight

Cheensbo wrote: »

One interesting nugget from a major supplier - was that a lot of their UK-IRL transport is done by "backloads" from unrelated EU deliveries, there has already been a serious reduction in their availability - because the trucks are already bypassing the landbridge..

Additionally the ECMT permits won't allow UK hauliers to make additional stops.

Capt'n Midnight

So provisional deals can happen, but since the deal needs to be ratified in all parliaments across the EU it could get interesting.


Two Green TDs say they will not back EU and Canada trade deal.

CETA was a trade deal struck between the EU and Canada in 2017.

It has been operating on a provisional basis since then and has cut tariffs and red tape as €72.3 billion were traded in goods between the EU and Canada in 2018 alone.

CelticRambler

Henryq. wrote: »

I'm thinking disruption won't be long term

Few weeks and trade back to near normal

Can you explain your reasoning?

Widdensushi

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

So provisional deals can happen, but since the deal needs to be ratified in all parliaments across the EU it could get interesting.


Two Green TDs say they will not back EU and Canada trade deal.

These deals undermine the reasons for being in the eu imo, if the members are left competing in the market with countries who have different standards.

listermint

Henryq. wrote: »

I'm thinking disruption won't be long term

Few weeks and trade back to near normal

You'd be completely wrong.

Firms need to start going direct to the continent and quick smart. Those that didn't bother their arse doing a serious supplier review this year alone are absolutely reckless.

An Ciarraioch

Interesting development tonight - after the NI elements were already taken out of the Internal Market Bill, now the parts that threatened to overrule the Scottish and Welsh parliaments have been removed:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1338920910808633344

Sam Russell

listermint wrote: »

You'd be completely wrong.

Firms need to start going direct to the continent and quick smart. Those that didn't bother their arse doing a serious supplier review this year alone are absolutely reckless.

Or will go out of business.

If there is a FTA that has no tariffs, then the customs paperwork will bring tears to their eyes. If it is no deal, the the tariffs will have their eyes bleeding.

I think any sane business should bypass the UK for the next few years if they can. If not, they should look to hang up their boots. Go into something else.

Henryq.

listermint wrote: »

You'd be completely wrong.

Firms need to start going direct to the continent and quick smart. Those that didn't bother their arse doing a serious supplier review this year alone are absolutely reckless.

Import costs are much higher though

GazzaL

Strazdas wrote: »

Many trade specialists with knowledge of customs and borders think GB could see massive disruption at its borders for three to six months (maybe even longer). This is not something that will simply settle down after a couple of weeks.

Brexit delays will compound the existing delays in the global supply chain. British ports are already some of the slowest in the world and are attracting surcharges on containers on top of already massively increased shipping costs. It will take a while for things to get back to normal. There will be significant price inflation next year regardless of Brexit.

Sam Russell wrote: »

Or will go out of business.

If there is a FTA that has no tariffs, then the customs paperwork will bring tears to their eyes. If it is no deal, the the tariffs will have their eyes bleeding.

I think any sane business should bypass the UK for the next few years if they can. If not, they should look to hang up their boots. Go into something else.

The paperwork is a huge barrier for SMEs. Irish companies importing from Britain can insist that their suppliers work on Delivered Duty Paid terms, but someone in Britain will still have to fill out paperwork which costs money and will add to the cost price.

This, combined with border delays, and global shipping delays, is a recipe for disaster.

Ireland is closer to Brussels (and Paris, Berlin, Amsterdam, etc.) than London.

listermint

Henryq. wrote: »

Import costs are much higher though

They most simply will not be. As stated many many times the paperwork and tariffs will make your head spin.

People simply aren't bothered dealing with the continent because they were lazy, the UK was handy.

Obviously some occasions there was a requirement to deal only with a UK distributor. But that's all gone now.

Big boy pants time.

Henryq.

listermint wrote: »

They most simply will not be. As stated many many times the paperwork and tariffs will make your head spin.

People simply aren't bothered dealing with the continent because they were lazy, the UK was handy.

Obviously some occasions there was a requirement to deal only with a UK distributor. But that's all gone now.

Big boy pants time.

In not convinced about this great big switch

I reckon business will go back to near nornal

Sam Russell

listermint wrote: »

They most simply will not be. As stated many many times the paperwork and tariffs will make your head spin.

People simply aren't bothered dealing with the continent because they were lazy, the UK was handy.

Obviously some occasions there was a requirement to deal only with a UK distributor. But that's all gone now.

Big boy pants time.

In the past, Ireland was dealt as a sub-office of the Liverpool office. Then we joined the EU, then the Euro, and most agency deals that multi national gave out had Ireland as part of the UK area, and the prices were converted to GBP and then to Euro, with a bit extra for the UK. Many MNCs refused to deal directly with Ireland and refused any Irish attempt to deal with any other region.

Now all that stops.

Just because we talk a similar language and are close by is no longer the excuse to take the soft option. Businesses must make the EU the preferred option for export.

listermint

Henryq. wrote: »

In not convinced about this great big switch

I reckon business will go back to near nornal

Yet you have stated zero reason why.


Intriguing..

Sam Russell

Henryq. wrote: »

In not convinced about this great big switch

I reckon business will go back to near nornal

Have you dealt with customs forms, tariffs, and VAT at point of entry?

Customs entry forms cost per line item if some agent does it for you, and your sanity if you do your own. Certificate of Origin, and CE marking all adds to the spice.

Tariffs cost you money which you may or may not be able to pass on.

VAT at point of entry drains your bank account, and can make your company go into debt.

I doubt anyone who has dealt with this stuff would do it willingly.

View

Sam Russell wrote: »

In the past, Ireland was dealt as a sub-office of the Liverpool office. Then we joined the EU, then the Euro, and most agency deals that multi national gave out had Ireland as part of the UK area, and the prices were converted to GBP and then to Euro, with a bit extra for the UK. Many MNCs refused to deal directly with Ireland and refused any Irish attempt to deal with any other region.

Now all that stops.

Just because we talk a similar language and are close by is no longer the excuse to take the soft option. Businesses must make the EU the preferred option for export.

Those MNCs that refused to deal directly with Ireland and refused any Irish attempt to deal with any other region should have been prosecuted for anti-competitive/monopolistic behaviour decades ago. The fact that they weren’t is a major failing by our government agencies.

Imreoir2

Henryq. wrote: »

This thing will never end

When the deal is done it won't be long before the disputes and wrangling start about UK compliance

Its interesting that the UK seems to be fighting its battle around the compliance mechanism.

Does this signal that it has given in on the rules themselves and are just looking for a face saving 'win' on how they will be made to comply with the rules they will be taking?

View

Henryq. wrote: »

In not convinced about this great big switch

I reckon business will go back to near nornal

Some businesses will unquestionably try to do so and they will try to pass the new additional costs (for sourcing via the U.K.) onto smaller businesses and consumers here.

Other businesses will source directly from the rest of the EU.

It will be the decisions of smaller businesses and consumers here, which will determine which of the two sets of businesses above wins out in the market place.

Imreoir2

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

So provisional deals can happen, but since the deal needs to be ratified in all parliaments across the EU it could get interesting.


Two Green TDs say they will not back EU and Canada trade deal.

Provisional application can happen, but only for pure trade deals that do not include areas of national competance. Given the scope of the problems that the UK trade deal needs to resolve, it seem unlikely that it does not delve into areas of national competance.

There is also a process that needs to be followed for provisional application to be approved. We are quickly getting down to not even having enough time for last minute fixes. This is why Barnier has been warning of the posibility of a short no-deal in January even if a deal is agreed.