Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Sam Russell

mrunsure wrote: »

I'm worried that Covid will be used as a catch all excuse to any economic ills which are really because of Brexit.

I think anyone that sees the lorry parks in Kent and the M20 and M2 with lanes filled with lorries will realise just how bad the Covid situation has become come January, Febuary.

When shoppers notice that the Covid panic buying last March is back again with empty shelves in the supermarket, they will accept that Covid is back again, only worse.

When they go to try to head away on holiday and see how long the queue at the passport check is, they will see that Covid just gets everywhere.

When Nissan announces the closure of the Sunderland plant, the workers will be grateful they never got Covid.

I am sure they will only have to look at their blue passports and realise how much Covid has affected their lives.

Of course Covid is the EU's fault.

Looks like the tech companies are already realigning their UK operations post Brexit, by switching UK facebook accounts to US style terms and conditions.
Will be interesting to see if Tech companies start to open up UK based operations in the future, or just continue to run it all from the US.

Divergence from EU rules has begun.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55328376

Facebook will shift its UK users onto agreements with the company’s corporate headquarters in California.

The move could put UK users out of reach of Europe's privacy laws.

But Facebook said there will be no change to the privacy controls or the services it offers UK customers.

Currently, UK users are governed by agreements with Facebook’s Irish headquarters, but this legal relationship will change following the UK's exit from the European Union (EU).

“Facebook has had to make changes to respond to Brexit and will be transferring legal responsibilities and obligations for UK users from Facebook Ireland to Facebook Inc," the social media giant told Reuters, which first reported the story.

ancapailldorcha

mrunsure wrote: »

I'm worried that Covid will be used as a catch all excuse to any economic ills which are really because of Brexit.

I suppose it's possible but we'll just have to see if that works.

I'm sceptical because the end of the pandemic is within sight. We have vaccines that are being administered. Business up and down the country who are in any way dependent on frictionless trade with Ireland and the continent are in for a serious hammering on top of the bungled response to the pandemic.

More than that though, I think the simplest explanation is the most likely. People are just exasperated and burnt out. I think the Brexiter zealots are in a minority now. They want it over and done with but many of them, in my opinion aren't like Trump supporters in that they'll question reality before they question Brexit.

The US presidency is a role that exists with a clear definition along with checks and balances. Brexit will be whatever the Tory leadership deem desirable with no accountability. The one upside is that it'll be entirely on them.

mrunsure

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm sceptical because the end of the pandemic is within sight.

But surely the costs of the pandemic will be felt for many years to come?

ancapailldorcha

mrunsure wrote: »

But surely the costs of the pandemic will be felt for many years to come?

Of course but that's the aftermath. I'm talking about an artificial, unnecessary economic calamity that the UK voted itself into multiple times. The pandemic aftermath with become the new normal while post-Brexit issues will only affect the UK (ignoring any relatively minor impact on a few EU states).

CelticRambler

mrunsure wrote: »

But surely the costs of the pandemic will be felt for many years to come?

In Britain, they'll be felt for a lot longer than in other European countries, as the Brexit obstacles to commercial, cultural and personal exchanges limit what people can do - not to mention the extra tax/borrowing that the UK government will have to find to make up for what used to come from the EU, on top of Covid payments.

I'm sure, thought, that the Tories can continue to blame any "tough times" on Covid for at least another couple of years, perhaps simultaneously blaming the EU for hobbling valiant British efforts to rebuild their economy.

Sam Russell

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Soviet Union spent 70 years lying to 150 or so million people about how "socialism is just around the corner" blaming "those capitalists and imperialists"

They managed to keep control for so long via simple brutality, total control of press, propaganda and restricting external travel

I think the Soviets fooled very few of the population. The Soviets kept control by brutal suppression against any dissent.

Pravda carried the stories of how great things were, and the population told jokes demonstrating how bad things were. It was the jokes that kept the people sane.

reslfj

CelticRambler wrote: »

Well, that's good. Hopefully that means that we can look forward to the UK joining Schengen, allowing Freedom of Movement, and aligning themselves with the vast majority of EU rules.

mrunsure wrote: »

Brexiteers use Switzerland as an example of a country that is doing OK despite being outside the customs union with the resulting higher costs and paperwork.

EEA and Switzerland are full members of the SM too. This implies full alignment to all EU standards and regulations for goods, services, FoM of people and capital with the exception of agriculture, fish and some other food products (in particular for Norway).

It involves following the ECJ (CJEU) via its front the EFTA court.

The EEA/CH is de facto 90+ percent EU members without any voting rights.

Lars

ancapailldorcha

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

That’s the thing what’s the Tories medium to long term plan, I doubt they be able to go full v for vendetta (or Chinese) totalitarian in order keep in power

Sooner or later no amount of spin will hide the contradictions, the said soviets wiped their rears with Pravda as there was no toilet paper to be found.

I think the allusion to the Soviet Union is both crude and unnecessary. The British state isn't that authoritarian. And even if it were, it's elites are selected on the basis of loyalty to Johnson and Brexit, not talent and the government's history with IT projects is just disastrous.

bobmalooka

Henryq. wrote: »

It remains to be seen how trade will be affected

There's projections and predictions but no-one can be certain yet

Thats very optimistic. I look at it this way:

The barriers that cause the red tape/customs paperwork/queues of lorries are based on regulations and are specifically the issues that David Frost and his team are refusing to compromise on. And it appears they don’t have a mandate to compromise on these matters either.

What’s being negotiated and (I think) likely to be agreed is what will remove all/most/some of the tariffs that would exist.

When you consider that I don’t see how these things will just smooth over - the UK government have tied themselves politically to a course of action that will cause the excess work for UK businesses

mrunsure

How can the young British people who voted overwhelmingly for Remain, including those too young to vote in 2016 who are probably 90% Remain, change things in the future?

Interestingly, the New European newspaper always seems to be on prominent display in my local Sainsbury's.

ancapailldorcha

mrunsure wrote: »

How can the young British people who voted overwhelmingly for Remain, not including those too young to vote in 2016 who are probably 90% Remain, change things in the future?

Interestingly, the New European newspaper always seems to be on prominent display in my local Sainsbury's.

For starters, they need to be voting. Only 47% and 55% of 18-24 and 25-34 year olds deigned to vote in 2019 (Source). I don't know how this compares to France but if a majority of younger people had voted, we'd have narrowly voted to stay in the EU and tuition fees would probably be less than a fifth of their current level.

They also need to get active politically and make themselves heard. While they're good at the latter they need to stand for election which means joining and running for a party here. Conservatism is about to take a serious hit very soon. Hiring loyalists is always a sign that a party is on the way out so hopefully a Labour government can be coerced into changing the voting system and making real strides on issues young people care about.

Zubeneschamali

mrunsure wrote: »

How can the young British people who voted overwhelmingly for Remain, including those too young to vote in 2016 who are probably 90% Remain, change things in the future?

One way is to wait until lots of older voters die. Thats what we had to do in Ireland with abortion, wait 30 years for a whole generation to die off.

Even then, politicians were behind the public as the issue was seen as radioactive. The repeal referendum was won in a 2:1 majority, they might have won it 10 years ago 55-45 if any politicians had been prepared to lead.

Reversing the Brexit referendum will probably be seen as similarly toxic in the UK, and it'll be a generation coming. In the meantime, young people can only vote relentlessly against the Tories, but they always do that anyway.

Akrasia

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Arguably, yes. Perhaps I should have said nationalist rage rather than nativist rage.



Well, 17.4 million people voted to leave. While I think it's fair to say that most probably aren't fond of free movement for EU citizens, I doubt there are that many rabid xenophobes here. For most people, I imagine that immigration is a bit like trade or sovereignty, it's just a talking point to avoid them sounding ridiculous by saying that they dislike EU regulations but can't name any.

I thnk there was an awful lot of fearmongering in the British press about how the EU had an open doors policy to immigration and how there would be millions of people waiting to come over and take their jobs, rape their children and outbreed them until the 'WASP's become a minority in their own land

A lot of people who have xenophobic attitudes don't bear any personal grudge against any individuals and may consider themselves to be open and welcoming people, but they have been told that the EU immigration policies were going to see a literal invasion, and that lots of these people are from backgrounds that have little or nothing in common with British values

The Press in the UK has an awful lot to answer for. People have dehumanised immigrants and refugees and see them as vermin who are only interested in themselves and abusing the british generosity

It takes tragedy, such as the image of those washed up children on the beach to get through to the public that these are real people running away from a desperate situation, but these rare glimpses of humanity are then swamped in wall to wall coverage of immigrants or refugees who commit a crime or assault someone.

The xenophobic attitudes of the British public are the result of decades of nasty prejudiced media portrayals of these people as the cause of their problems, while defending the actions of the Tory and 'New' Labour governments that have consistently failed to invest in these communities to keep pace with economic development across the rest of the EU.

Right wing gutter press turns the middle classes against the working classes, and the working classes against the immigrants, all so that the upper classes can implement policies that only benefit themselves

Lemming

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

For starters, they need to be voting. Only 47% and 55% of 18-24 and 25-34 year olds deigned to vote in 2019 (Source). I don't know how this compares to France but if a majority of younger people had voted, we'd have narrowly voted to stay in the EU and tuition fees would probably be less than a fifth of their current level.

Just to put it in a localised context rather than a national context; Brexit was carried in Sheffield by 1000 votes (give or take 10). I have no idea what percentage of those who voted in Sheffield were in that 25-34 demographic; I just don't have those figures, but such a narrow margin should give pause for thought. Not just for young people but for everyone at the end of the day.

listermint

White smoke perhaps...

https://twitter.com/thejournal_ie/status/1339174685020340224

ElJeffe

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think this is exactly why Brexit needs to happen ASAP. There will be no acceptance of Brexit and therefore no evolution of the debate until it does and people see the garden of England become the concrete toilet of England for no reason at all.

Iv'e been saying this for years. The 2016 outcome should have been implemented as soon as possible. The remain side spent two years telling everyone how evil and bad the leave side where calling them all sorts of names, racists etc... and where has it got them? Nowhere. It did more harm than good and hardened the leave thought process.

The sooner the people that voted leave see the actual effects of Brexit the sooner they can make arrangements to come back onboard.

4 years have been wasted pissing around.

Akrasia

ElJeffe wrote: »

Iv'e been saying this for years. The 2016 outcome should have been implemented as soon as possible. The remain side spent two years telling everyone how evil and bad the leave side where calling them all sorts of names, racists etc... and where has it got them? Nowhere. It did more harm than good and hardened the leave thought process.

The sooner the people that voted leave see the actual effects of Brexit the sooner they can make arrangements to come back onboard.

4 years have been wasted pissing around.

The remainers didn't block brexit from happening earlier. It was the hardliners in the ERG who voted down TM's withdrawal agreement on so many occasions. The fact that 52% of people voted for brexit, but there was no agreement amongst that 52% about what brexit actually was meant that they were always going to have years of infighting amongst themselves over what type of brexit deal they were going to come away with

Theresa May made the concept of a 'No Deal' a viable option when it was unthinkable during the referendum campaign.

And the UK would have had a 2nd referendum if Corbyn wasn't also a leaver who sabotaged multiple efforts to secure a confirmatory referendum

peter kern

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Soviet Union spent 70 years lying to 150 or so million people about how "socialism is just around the corner" blaming "those capitalists and imperialists"

They managed to keep control for so long via simple brutality, total control of press, propaganda and restricting external travel

UK and its population on the other hand will see year after year how their life is worse off, even the warped press would find it hard to deny issues such as hunger. Sooner or later the British people will ask themselves why are we the poorman of europe? Why do the Scots want so badly to leave our "paradise"?

The Tories can potentially pull the wool over the electorates eyes for another decade, but sooner or later their house of cards will collapse under its own contradictions, i doubt it take 70 years, maybe 7 years at most.

come on they will still be richer than spain italy etc etc even with a hard brexit.

yagan

peter kern wrote: »

come on they will still be richer than spain italy etc etc even with a hard brexit.

There are more foodbanks in England than there are Mcdonalds and nine out of ten of the poorest region in Northern Europe are in the UK.

listermint

yagan wrote: »

There are more foodbanks in England than there are Mcdonalds and nine out of ten of the poorest region in Northern Europe are in the UK.

And UNICEF has been feeding people via food parcels since August. With Tory hacks on twitter saying that UNICEF are politically interfering in domestic politics to make the Tories look bad...


Poor man of Europe.

Leroy42

ElJeffe wrote: »

Iv'e been saying this for years. The 2016 outcome should have been implemented as soon as possible. The remain side spent two years telling everyone how evil and bad the leave side where calling them all sorts of names, racists etc... and where has it got them? Nowhere. It did more harm than good and hardened the leave thought process.

The sooner the people that voted leave see the actual effects of Brexit the sooner they can make arrangements to come back onboard.

4 years have been wasted pissing around.

You do know that the UK could have left at any point they wanted to over the last 4+ years?

The reason for the delay is entirely down to themselves.

The reason why some people think the Remainers made it more difficult was that every time TM or the ERG said they had it all worked out, a remained would point out the glaring issues with whatever new idea they had come up with and they were forced to back down and rethink. That is not the fault of the Remainer.

Lumen

I think it is unlikely that English people will notice a marked decline in day to day living standards that can be attributed to Brexit.

The English people I know (admittedly middle class property owners) judge their financial situation by how much they're paid every month after tax, and by how much their house is worth, both in pure Sterling terms.

I had a frustrating conversation a few years ago (maybe 10) where I tried to explain to a couple of them that their income and wealth ought to be measured by a basket of currencies, because they consumed goods and services largely produced outside the UK, but it was like explaining quantum mechanics to a dog.

So food prices will go up a bit, and holidays will get more expensive, but they'll still obsess over post-tax income and house prices in nominal £ terms.

This has been seen the last few years - UK inflation has been running much higher than in the Eurozone since the financial crisis, leading to a substantial reduction in real incomes and wealth, but it hasn't really been noticed or remarked upon outside wonkish press and commentariat. The rise in food banks has been attributed to policy decisions rather than macro economics.

Leroy42

peter kern wrote: »

come on they will still be richer than spain italy etc etc even with a hard brexit.

But as so starkly shown in the US, it is not the level of wealth, bu the distribution of that wealth, that is the key factor.

Leroy42

Lumen wrote: »

I think it is unlikely that English people will notice a marked decline in day to day living standards that can be attributed to Brexit.

The English people I know (admittedly middle class property owners) judge their financial situation by how much they're paid every month after tax, and by how much their house is worth, both in pure Sterling terms.

I had a frustrating conversation a few years ago (maybe 10) where I tried to explain to a couple of them that their income and wealth ought to be measured by a basket of currencies, because they consumed goods and services largely produced outside the UK, but it was like explaining quantum mechanics to a dog.

So food prices will go up a bit, and holidays will get more expensive, but they'll still obsess over post-tax income and house prices in nominal £ terms.

This has been seen the last few years - UK inflation has been running much higher than in the Eurozone since the financial crisis, leading to a substantial reduction in real incomes and wealth, but it hasn't really been noticed or remarked upon outside wonkish press and commentariat. The rise in food banks has been attributed to policy decisions rather than macro economics.

That is not unusual or unique to the UK. People care about what affects them. The opposite is the fear of crime. In many cases crime figures go down but fear of crime rises. It is how people perceive things to be rather than the facts.

And international exchange rates, food prices etc, there are so many variables it is hard to really understand it at the time. It is only when looking back that one can really judge it.

PeadarCo

Lumen wrote: »

I think it is unlikely that English people will notice a marked decline in day to day living standards that can be attributed to Brexit.

The English people I know (admittedly middle class property owners) judge their financial situation by how much they're paid every month after tax, and by how much their house is worth, both in pure Sterling terms.

I had a frustrating conversation a few years ago (maybe 10) where I tried to explain to a couple of them that their income and wealth ought to be measured by a basket of currencies, because they consumed goods and services largely produced outside the UK, but it was like explaining quantum mechanics to a dog.

So food prices will go up a bit, and holidays will get more expensive, but they'll still obsess over post-tax income and house prices in nominal £ terms.

This has been seen the last few years - UK inflation has been running much higher than in the Eurozone since the financial crisis, leading to a substantial reduction in real incomes and wealth, but it hasn't really been noticed or remarked upon outside wonkish press and commentariat.

To be fair to people living in the UK that's not unusual. One of the arguments against the Euro or any large currency to be honest is that a government is forced to impose direct and clearly identiable tax increases and spending cuts during periods of overspending or economic downturn. Letting a currency depreciate may make everyone in a country poorer due to excess inflation. Its harder to notice and trace a decline in wealth/income due to currency depreciation/ general monetary inflation than an announcement by the government of X tax increase/spending cut.

Austerity measures and currency depreciation can achieve the same overall net effect but whom each impacts and how they impact people is different, with different costs for the governments responsible.

listermint

Lumen wrote: »

I think it is unlikely that English people will notice a marked decline in day to day living standards that can be attributed to Brexit.

The English people I know (admittedly middle class property owners) judge their financial situation by how much they're paid every month after tax, and by how much their house is worth, both in pure Sterling terms.

I had a frustrating conversation a few years ago (maybe 10) where I tried to explain to a couple of them that their income and wealth ought to be measured by a basket of currencies, because they consumed goods and services largely produced outside the UK, but it was like explaining quantum mechanics to a dog.

So food prices will go up a bit, and holidays will get more expensive, but they'll still obsess over post-tax income and house prices in nominal £ terms.

This has been seen the last few years - UK inflation has been running much higher than in the Eurozone since the financial crisis, leading to a substantial reduction in real incomes and wealth, but it hasn't really been noticed or remarked upon outside wonkish press and commentariat. The rise in food banks has been attributed to policy decisions rather than macro economics.

They should be alot more interested in what their job situation will be next year and the following years tbh. It's all fine not worrying today. But with the brain drain and capital flight out of the country there is a knock on impact on a vast array of businesses right across supply chains and their servicing businesses.

I would think people should be more cagey and frankly more informed. But they aren't.


We've moved an entire division to Czech Republic. And it wasn't moved because of Corona virus.....

A Dub in Glasgo

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting development tonight - after the NI elements were already taken out of the Internal Market Bill, now the parts that threatened to overrule the Scottish and Welsh parliaments have been removed:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1338920910808633344

Smoke & Mirrors at play from the UK govt, their intention is to nullify the devolved parliaments and they got it

https://twitter.com/GradySNP/status/1339172105494147072

peter kern

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I dont remember any buses being driven around with "Vote Brexit, you be no poorer than Spanish and Italians"

but there was also no bus that said richer than the netherlands or sweden.

there is no need to blow up the brexit issues.

listermint

peter kern wrote: »

but there was also no bus that said richer than the netherlands or sweden.

there is no need to blow up the brexit issues.

Who specifically is blowing to the brexit issues , be specific and give details of them .