Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

peter kern

Leroy42 wrote: »

But as so starkly shown in the US, it is not the level of wealth, bu the distribution of that wealth, that is the key factor.

the distribution of wealth between rich north and poor south in italy is certainly as serious as in uk,

peter kern

listermint wrote: »

Who specifically is blowing to the brexit issues , be specific and give details of them .

the post i quoted spoke of the uk soon being the poor man in europe i see no projcetion that would suggest that.

listermint

peter kern wrote: »

the post i quoted spoke of the uk soon being the poor man in europe i see no projcetion that would suggest that.

I would suggest therefore you read the government's own projections. It might enlighten you.

Remember these are the UK government's own projections not the EUs .

But perhaps you haven't looked and are running on feelings and thoughts ?

dogbert27

The knives will be sharpening with others if Facebook pull this off.

UK users to be put on US privacy terms and conditions which are looser than the EU privacy rules.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-9056469/Facebook-UK-users-California-terms-avoiding-EU-privacy-rules.html

listermint

dogbert27 wrote: »

The knives will be sharpening with others if Facebook pull this off.

UK users to be put on US privacy terms and conditions which are looser than the EU privacy rules.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-9056469/Facebook-UK-users-California-terms-avoiding-EU-privacy-rules.html

In some ways it's not as drastic as it sounds. California privacy laws are very alligned with GDPR. Many other US states however are not at all.

Seth Brundle

This is an interesting twitter thread.
The short version is that the UK government wants to protect it's borders as we know but apparently they do not want to fund them properly. Dover had requested £33million in funding and received £33 thousand :rolleyes:

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1339205325765947393

dogbert27

listermint wrote: »

In some ways it's not as drastic as it sounds. California privacy laws are very alligned with GDPR. Many other US states however are not at all.

So it depends what State privacy they want to implement which given the timeline would suggest it is a State that wouldn't be aligned with GDPR so that Facebook can mine more personal information.

People will want to keep using their Facebook accounts on Jan 01st so will just click accept to the new Ts & Cs without reading the details

dogbert27

So Boris' next brain wave is to make London the Singapore on the Thames with overhaul of shipping regulations.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9058935/Boris-Johnson-plots-overhaul-shipping-regulations-turn-London-Singapore-West.html

However within the article, after the Brexit referendum this happened:

Several large maritime firms switched their flag from the UK to EU states after the 2016 referendum, including CMA CGM, the world's fourth biggest container shipping line.

As of May 31 2019, there 1,229 vessels registered with the British flag, representing 10.5 million GT (gross tonnage). This was down from 1,315 vessels or 16.5 million GT at the end of May 2018, official data showed.

So after the Brexit referendum large firms switched from the UK to other EU states. Therefore they see being registered within the EU as a positive.

Why does Boris think they will jump back when they've seen 4 years of incompetence?

Tell me how

dogbert27 wrote: »

So Boris' next brain wave is to make London the Singapore on the Thames with overhaul of shipping regulations.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9058935/Boris-Johnson-plots-overhaul-shipping-regulations-turn-London-Singapore-West.html

However within the article, after the Brexit referendum this happened:

Several large maritime firms switched their flag from the UK to EU states after the 2016 referendum, including CMA CGM, the world's fourth biggest container shipping line.

As of May 31 2019, there 1,229 vessels registered with the British flag, representing 10.5 million GT (gross tonnage). This was down from 1,315 vessels or 16.5 million GT at the end of May 2018, official data showed.

So after the Brexit referendum large firms switched from the UK to other EU states. Therefore they see being registered within the EU as a positive.

Why does Boris think they will jump back when they've seen 4 years of incompetence?

He doesn't know, or possibly even care whether they will or not.

Boris, Rees-Mogg, Farage, Cummings et al have financial security. They are doing Brexit because of their nationalistic pride to be seen as people who upheld the idea of the British Empire as much as anyone before them.

They are surrounded by family members, friends, neigbours and colleagues who are in similar positions. None of them are concerned about the sensitivities of normal PAYE employees or small business owners who have to deal with mundane stuff like increased shipping charges or delays etc.

The media they pay attention to and the voices they hear are all telling them that they are part of a long line of noble dignitaries who have fought to take Britain to its rightful place at the head of the worlds nations.

They cancelled Eid celebrations in the Northen night before they were due to start in the North of England because of Covid but have said that there is not enough time to call for restrictions around Christmas celebrations while, bizarrely, regional governments are already announcing an increase in restrictions to start on the 28th of December, after Christmas.

I can imagine Johnson and Gove and others behind the scenes before big announcements or media appearances and them laughing and joking and egging each other on and then putting on a sober face for 6 minutes while they talk of understanding, empathy and support before ignoring all that and wondering where they might get away with going for dinner.

Pointing out the weakness in the Brexit position today, versus what they promised and the contradicting terms showcasing this is largely limited to a few 'black sheep' such as Carole Cadwalladr, Ian Dunt, James O'Brien and in particular Femi Oluwole who does an admirable job of putting together short videos of 'You said that, now you're saying this'. And what thanks do they get for this? Ian and James are doing ok, Carole had to crowdfund to defend herself in court from libel claims by someone who was involved in the LEave campaign and Femi was denied membership of the Labour party and is frequently and openly racially abused for his efforts.

Most people of a liberal, inclusive nature have had some good luck recently with Trump getting defeated but it is still a very depressing and worrying time for many in the UK no matter how many times Johnson weakly tells people to 'Believe in Britain'. I have family members there and one in particular is suffering mentally with what he thinks is ahead.

Everyone probably saw the BBC headlines this morning, one pointing out Cummings had received a 45K pay rise earlier this year, the other that Unicef are stepping in to help feed UK children. 45K wouldn't go far in feeding children but it is another example of the different universes in which these groups exist in. They are literally different worlds.

Lumen

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

A few years of pound devaluating, companies closing/moving and UK gdp shrinking would put them behind Spain and Italy in per capita terms, they are already close to them

To put some numbers on this:

GDP per capita in Purchasing Power Standards (PPS)
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/tec00114/default/table?lang=en

The UK has dropped steadily from 113 (2008) to 104 (2019).
Italy has dropped from 108 to 96.
Spain has dropped from 102 to 91.

The UK is the 8th biggest loser in that period (of European economies), sandwiched between Finland and Sweden.

The smaller countries have been the big winners, with Germany and France holding station.

Overall, UK performance over this period has been...boringly average for a country of its size, but substantially less bad than Italy and Spain.

I see big social problems in the UK but I suspect that's because of the common language and geographic proximity makes them easier to read about compared to other EU countries.

As for the near future, well...nobody thinks it'll be good. Even the Brexiters have admitted that the sunny uplands are somewhere in the far distance.

Professor Moriarty

Tell me how wrote: »

He doesn't know, or possibly even care whether they will or not.

Boris, Rees-Mogg, Farage, Cummings et al have financial security. They are doing Brexit because of their nationalistic pride to be seen as people who upheld the idea of the British Empire as much as anyone before them.

They are surrounded by family members, friends, neigbours and colleagues who are in similar positions. None of them are concerned about the sensitivities of normal PAYE employees or small business owners who have to deal with mundane stuff like increased shipping charges or delays etc.

The media they pay attention to and the voices they hear are all telling them that they are part of a long line of noble dignitaries who have fought to take Britain to its rightful place at the head of the worlds nations.

They cancelled Eid celebrations in the Northen night before they were due to start in the North of England because of Covid but have said that there is not enough time to call for restrictions around Christmas celebrations while, bizarrely, regional governments are already announcing an increase in restrictions to start on the 28th of December, after Christmas.

I can imagine Johnson and Gove and others behind the scenes before big announcements or media appearances and them laughing and joking and egging each other on and then putting on a sober face for 6 minutes while they talk of understanding, empathy and support before ignoring all that and wondering where they might get away with going for dinner.

Pointing out the weakness in the Brexit position today, versus what they promised and the contradicting terms showcasing this is largely limited to a few 'black sheep' such as Carole Cadwalladr, Ian Dunt, James O'Brien and in particular Femi Oluwole who does an admirable job of putting together short videos of 'You said that, now you're saying this'. And what thanks do they get for this? Ian and James are doing ok, Carole had to crowdfund to defend herself in court from libel claims by someone who was involved in the LEave campaign and Femi was denied membership of the Labour party and is frequently and openly racially abused for his efforts.

Most people of a liberal, inclusive nature have had some good luck recently with Trump getting defeated but it is still a very depressing and worrying time for many in the UK no matter how many times Johnson weakly tells people to 'Believe in Britain'. I have family members there and one in particular is suffering mentally with what he thinks is ahead.

Everyone probably saw the BBC headlines this morning, one pointing out Cummings had received a 45K pay rise earlier this year, the other that Unicef are stepping in to help feed UK children. 45K wouldn't go far in feeding children but it is another example of the different universes in which these groups exist in. They are literally different worlds.

Actually... UNICEF have provided £25,000 worth of funding which equates to 20,000 breakfasts for children. So, Cummings increase in salary is the equivalent of 36,000 breakfasts for poor children.

mrunsure

The UK has long been one of the poorest countries in western Europe. There was a blip in the pre-2008 boom when the UK briefly overtook the USA in GDP per capita.

I've still got a children's atlas from 1980. It has a map of Europe labelled with GDP per capita:

Portugal $1156
Greece $1816
Spain $2090
Ireland $2201
Italy $2691
UK $3338
Austria $4290
Finland $4530
Netherlands $5177
France $5218
Belgium/Luxembourg $5424
Norway $5965
Denmark $6119
West Germany $6217
Iceland $6364
Sweden $6860
Switzerland $6960

Lumen

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

How come no one is asking to what happened to the 350 million pounds a week that were promised on a side of a bus?

Eh, everyone? That stupid bus has been hung around the necks of Brexiters ever since the referendum. Has it made any difference? Nope. They're shameless.

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

The Brexiteers always claim UK economy is larger than France yet we dont hear about kids going without meals there.

Indeed. Fractionally behind Greece.

However, I'd argue that's actually a causal factor in Brexit, because it can be spun as "we haven't done well in the EU, we'd be better off out of it".

Hence the red wall coming down whilst Corbyn sat on his hands.

People outside London were told by people in London that their poverty was caused by people in Brussels. "Look over there".



Source: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Children_at_risk_of_poverty_or_social_exclusion

Sam Russell

A figure I quote from time to time shows the result of British deficits over the years:

If GB£10,000 was converted into D Marks in 1965, they would currently be worth €50,000. That is a measure of the difference in inflation between the two economies plus economic performance. [DM 13 = UK£1 in 1965]

Now, the GBP has fallen by 20% over the last 5 years while UK personal earnings have hardly risen at all. Average salary in UK 2020 = GB£31,000 and Irish average salary 2020 = €41,000. If the currency change had not happened, they would be nearly the same.

Figures for average salary were from Google search.

peter kern

listermint wrote: »

I would suggest therefore you read the government's own projections. It might enlighten you.

Remember these are the UK government's own projections not the EUs .

But perhaps you haven't looked and are running on feelings and thoughts ?

there is a huge difference in being a good bit worse off and being the poor man of europe the worst projections i have seen is GPD down 8% 2030 that is still far far away from being the poor man in europe. grece did drop something like 40 %

https://www.pwc.co.uk/who-we-are/regional-sites/northern-ireland/press-releases/world-in-2050.html

bit old now but this longterm projection did not show the uk to be the poor man either .

in my mind there is a big difference making a silly very costly mistake that brexit is vs falling completely apart like Greece where the economy shrank by 25%

but if you can show me a study which projects the uk to be the poor man of europe soon iam intersted to read it.

Sam Russell

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Yep lets take 2 mythical Google engineers who graduated same class but starting work on 1st December 2015

* John is in Google London on 50,000 GBP
* Jane is in Google Dublin on 70,500 EUR exact same salary but in euro (rate 1:1.41 on 1 Dec 2015)

Both get exactly same 4% rise every year because they are awesome

Here is what happens 5 years later



Jane being the smart gal that she is stayed in Ireland after graduation and is now 27% better off than her ex classmate John who unfortunately for him hitched his wagon to a country about to Brexit itself.

Of course this doesnt factor in cost of living in both places (high) and taxes (high) but the figures speak for themselves

Thank you for the example.

Would Jane not get a premium start in Dublin because of the higher cost of living? In other words, starting salaries would be higher in Dublin than London for high tech jobs?

Also, Would John, if he was based in, say, Sheffield get a much smaller starting salary because salaries outside London are significantly lower?

Only asking. I have the idea that life outside the London bubble is very much poorer, but could be wrong.

An Ciarraioch

It seems LPF is bridgeable now, but fish has as big a gulf as ever:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1339236068177088512.html

mrunsure

Sam Russell wrote: »

Thank you for the example.

Would Jane not get a premium start in Dublin because of the higher cost of living? In other words, starting salaries would be higher in Dublin than London for high tech jobs?

Also, Would John, if he was based in, say, Sheffield get a much smaller starting salary because salaries outside London are significantly lower?

Only asking. I have the idea that life outside the London bubble is very much poorer, but could be wrong.

I've worked in several companies with offices both in the London area and in other parts of the country and there isn't much difference in wage for similar roles. However, there's more chance of actually getting such a role in London or the south, and you are likely to get promoted quicker in the south. You are also more insulated from economic downturns.

There is a traditional north south divide which is still a pretty good rule of thumb, with the boundary being a straight line from the Bristol Channel to the Wash.

Peregrinus

peter kern wrote: »

there is a huge difference in being a good bit worse off and being the poor man of europe the worst projections i have seen is GPD down 8% 2030 that is still far far away from being the poor man in europe. grece did drop something like 40 %

https://www.pwc.co.uk/who-we-are/regional-sites/northern-ireland/press-releases/world-in-2050.html

bit old now but this longterm projection did not show the uk to be the poor man either .

in my mind there is a big difference making a silly very costly mistake that brexit is vs falling completely apart like Greece where the economy shrank by 25%

but if you can show me a study which projects the uk to be the poor man of europe soon iam intersted to read it.

The UK wasn't regarded as "the sick man of Europe" in the 1960s because it was poorer than Greece; far from it.

IT was so regarded because, year after year, its economy was consistently underperforming the economies of countries which were comparable in terms of size, development, etc - Germany, Italy, France. All were consistently outperforming the UK, with the result that living standards in the UK were being outstripped. It wasn't that UK workers were living like Greek peasant farmers; it was that they weren't enjoying the same standards as French and German workers when, 10 years earlier, they had been comfortably ahead. It was the "sick man" not so much because it was critically ill as because it was chronically ill. And the trend seemed set to continue. Which was why the UK spent most of the 1960s trying to secure admission to the EU.

And Brexit seems likely have a similar effect - not an economic blowout, more a slow puncture. Year after year, the additional costs faced by UK trade will result in a steady underperformance, relative to what other western European economies enjoy, and relative to what the UK could enjoy, but for Brexit.

GM228

Peregrinus wrote: »

IT was so regarded because, year after year, its economy was consistently underperforming the economies of countries which were comparable in terms of size, development, etc - Germany, Italy, France. All were consistently outperforming the UK, with the result that living standards in the UK were being outstripped. It wasn't that UK workers were living like Greek peasant farmers; it was that they weren't enjoying the same standards as French and German workers when, 10 years earlier, they had been comfortably ahead. It was the "sick man" not so much because it was critically ill as because it was chronically ill. And the trend seemed set to continue. Which was why the UK spent most of the 1960s trying to secure admission to the EU

I highly doubt it, but perhaps it was more than just peace, safety and freedom on Churchill's mind when he called for a United States of Europe in his famous speech to the academic youth in 1946?

Sam Russell

mrunsure wrote: »

I've worked in several companies with offices both in the London area and in other parts of the country and there isn't much difference in wage for similar roles. However, there's more chance of actually getting such a role in London or the south, and you are likely to get promoted quicker in the south. You are also more insulated from economic downturns.

There is a traditional north south divide which is still a pretty good rule of thumb, with the boundary being a straight line from the Bristol Channel to the Wash.

That is an interesting view.

I know someone who moved back to Dublin from London in late 2015 at much the same salary. A post graduate qualified person with international experience was unable to find any job in the North of England at anything like their London salary - like it would mean a 50% pay cut if any job could be found at all.

That is why I think there is a London bubble - but I could be wrong to base it on a single case.

Capt'n Midnight

listermint wrote: »

In some ways it's not as drastic as it sounds. California privacy laws are very alligned with GDPR. Many other US states however are not at all.

It won't make much difference now to Facebook & co. but with the UK diverging from the EU on citizens rights with things like the Snoopers Charger it may make a difference in the future.

breezy1985

Sam Russell wrote: »

That is an interesting view.

I know someone who moved back to Dublin from London in late 2015 at much the same salary. A post graduate qualified person with international experience was unable to find any job in the North of England at anything like their London salary - like it would mean a 50% pay cut if any job could be found at all.

That is why I think there is a London bubble - but I could be wrong to base it on a single case.

Well in fairness there should be a massive increase in wages for a London job to pay for a London flat.
Average rent in England was 25% of wage but in London that jumped to 50%

The fact that a Newcastle and a London bar man get the same wage is a joke and I the calls for living wage keep growing and London gives hospitality employers a huge kick up the crotch

listermint

More fantastic Brexit dividends. They just seem to never end.

https://mobile.twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1339249383095853057

Widdensushi

dogbert27 wrote: »

So Boris' next brain wave is to make London the Singapore on the Thames with overhaul of shipping regulations.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9058935/Boris-Johnson-plots-overhaul-shipping-regulations-turn-London-Singapore-West.html

However within the article, after the Brexit referendum this happened:

Several large maritime firms switched their flag from the UK to EU states after the 2016 referendum, including CMA CGM, the world's fourth biggest container shipping line.

As of May 31 2019, there 1,229 vessels registered with the British flag, representing 10.5 million GT (gross tonnage). This was down from 1,315 vessels or 16.5 million GT at the end of May 2018, official data showed.

So after the Brexit referendum large firms switched from the UK to other EU states. Therefore they see being registered within the EU as a positive.

Why does Boris think they will jump back when they've seen 4 years of incompetence?

They could entice them with lower standards leading to lower running costs, that approach is not without risks though.

Capt'n Midnight

breezy1985 wrote: »

Well in fairness there should be a massive increase in wages for a London job to pay for a London flat.
Average rent in England was 25% of wage but in London that jumped to 50%

The fact that a Newcastle and a London bar man get the same wage is a joke and I the calls for living wage keep growing and London gives hospitality employers a huge kick up the crotch

Nothing new. London Weighting has been around for a century.

But London and surrounds is now the profit centre of the UK economy since Maggie phased out manufacturing industry.

Capt'n Midnight

Widdensushi wrote: »

They could entice them with lower standards leading to lower running costs, that approach is not without risks though.

If there isn't much difference then EU registration is handier.

If there is a huge difference in cost then remember that EU regs are getting tighter on flags of convenience.

peter kern

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

How come no one is asking to what happened to the 350 million pounds a week that were promised on a side of a bus?

Thats 16 GBP for each child (22 million under 19) per week, rough back of napkin calculation

The Brexiteers always claim UK economy is larger than France yet we dont hear about kids going without meals there.

not hearing about it does of course not mean it does not exist .


Christelle Dubos, a junior health minister who has put the number of children arriving unfed at school at one in 10
with one in three going to school hungry at least once a week.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/europe/soul-searching-in-france-as-poverty-leaves-one-million-children-hungry-1.859972

volchitsa

peter kern wrote: »

not hearing about it does of course not mean it does not exist .


Christelle Dubos, a junior health minister who has put the number of children arriving unfed at school at one in 10
with one in three going to school hungry at least once a week.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/europe/soul-searching-in-france-as-poverty-leaves-one-million-children-hungry-1.859972

One in three? That's unbelievable (to me) in a developed country. Is that because I just don't have a clue or are there comparable levels of child hunger in Ireland and other EU countries?

Sam Russell

volchitsa wrote: »

One in three? That's unbelievable (to me) in a developed country. Is that because I just don't have a clue or are there comparable levels of child hunger in Ireland and other EU countries?

Could this be the result of the increase in the number of single parent families, and the hostile environment towards those on benefits, and the absence of social housing?

One in three is huge numbers. It cannot be just poverty, or can it?