Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

It's not "just" poverty, but it very closely parallels the situation in the US - yet again. Over there, you have similar levels of "child hunger" - including NGOs acting on the ground in the same way that they do in Africa - and that's matched by other parameters that you wouldn't expect in a (supposedly) developed country, e.g. the death rates of mothers-in-childbirth is on a par with most third world countries.

There's great mileage to be made in picking macro-economic data, such as GDP, and using it to show how great one country is compared to another; but those kinds of statistics mean nothing to the vast majority of the population, and are rarely a good reflection of genuine quality of life. I'm one of those who voted with my feet and chose to leave the UK more than fifteen years ago, because I just could not reconcile my personal values (particularly with regard to raising a family) with the way British society was evolving.

But I also turned down a 75k job in Bray in favour of ... well, nothing at the time ... in rural France, because money isn't everything. And for that reason, the idea that you pick a random worker in a random profession in the UK and say that they will/might/should be worse off because of Brexit, compared to their EU counterparts is not really of any importance: there's so much more that makes a country a "good place to live".

yagan

Sam Russell wrote: »

It cannot be just poverty, or can it?

Yes it can.

You don't believe until you see it but a quick tour around the former industrial centres will leave you in littles doubt of the recent decades of decay they've experienced.

It's very shocking to stand in places like Rochdale, Oldham (which as a town had the most millionaires per head a century ago) Burnley, Blackburn etc.. and literally see them crumbling.

It is true that the former textile centres started their contraction a century ago but the real rot really off in the Thatcher years.

Henryq.

yagan wrote: »

Yes it can.

You don't believe until you see it but a quick tour around the former industrial centres will leave you in littles doubt of the recent decades of decay they've experienced.

It's very shocking to stand in places like Rochdale, Oldham (which as a town had the most millionaires per head a century ago) Burnley, Blackburn etc.. and literally see them crumbling.

It is true that the former textile centres started their contraction a century ago but the real rot really off in the Thatcher years.

It did ,and Thatcher didn't see the big picture (the value of gainful employment)

Seth Brundle

peter kern wrote: »

not hearing about it does of course not mean it does not exist .


Christelle Dubos, a junior health minister who has put the number of children arriving unfed at school at one in 10
with one in three going to school hungry at least once a week.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/europe/soul-searching-in-france-as-poverty-leaves-one-million-children-hungry-1.859972

I don't think the figures for Ireland are that much better unfortunately

Capt'n Midnight

For those who think an Australia deal is better than being in the club remember that 40% of Australia's exports go to China.

They have launched an appeal against Chinese tariffs on barley with the WTO.


Inside the EU the UK had no barriers to trade. Now they could face EU tariffs in the future.

Thargor

Lumen wrote: »

I think it is unlikely that English people will notice a marked decline in day to day living standards that can be attributed to Brexit.

The English people I know (admittedly middle class property owners) judge their financial situation by how much they're paid every month after tax, and by how much their house is worth, both in pure Sterling terms.

I had a frustrating conversation a few years ago (maybe 10) where I tried to explain to a couple of them that their income and wealth ought to be measured by a basket of currencies, because they consumed goods and services largely produced outside the UK, but it was like explaining quantum mechanics to a dog.

So food prices will go up a bit, and holidays will get more expensive, but they'll still obsess over post-tax income and house prices in nominal £ terms.

This has been seen the last few years - UK inflation has been running much higher than in the Eurozone since the financial crisis, leading to a substantial reduction in real incomes and wealth, but it hasn't really been noticed or remarked upon outside wonkish press and commentariat. The rise in food banks has been attributed to policy decisions rather than macro economics.

I always think of the Euro changeover where one Euro was worth 78 Irish pence, and Sterling was worth a good bit more than a Euro or a Punt, look at it now heading towards parity nearly, if we were still using Punts you would never in a million years have predicted a Punt-Sterling exchange rate like this.

Sam Russell

Henryq. wrote: »

It did ,and Thatcher didn't see the big picture (the value of gainful employment)

Unfortunately Thatcher's grasp of economics was at the level of her lifetime hero, her father, the shopkeeper - "You buy for one shilling and 10 pence and sell for two shillings and six pence, then you stay in business".

Everything has to make a profit, and that applies to Government funding. People are poor because they do not work. Unions are bad for the economy because they work against capital. etc. etc. Pure right wing thinking of the furthest pure right you can get.

She destroyed manufacturing, the North of England, the coal mining industry and the steel industry. The car industry probably killed itself, but it was not actually helped by her interference.

volchitsa

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I don't think the figures for Ireland are that much better unfortunately

Yes but only the UK has UNICEF sufficiently concerned to start providing food there, which seems to say it's markedly worse there.

So I'm left wondering how reliable that link about France is. It's a Middle Eastern newssite with a number of grammar mistakes in every article. The ME equivalent of Russia Today?

AlmightyCushion

Thargor wrote: »

I always think of the Euro changeover where one Euro was worth 78 Irish pence, and Sterling was worth a good bit more than a Euro or a Punt, look at it now heading towards parity nearly, if we were still using Punts you would never in a million years have predicted a Punt-Sterling exchange rate like this.

Back in 2009 or 2010 didn't it actually reach parity. If not it was close. Back then everyone was heading up north for shopping. I worked in PC World at the time. It seemed like every second person was asking for a huge discount on stuff and when you told them you couldn't give it to them, they said they were heading up north to get it.

An Ciarraioch

Interesting FT article on UK exports (as usual, just Google "UK exports lag behind rivals amid Brexit and Covid uncertainty" ) - perhaps the most surprising stat is that British goods exports up to October, at £250 billion, compare rather unfavourably with Ireland's €134 billion in terms of the relative size of the economies. Exports to the EU fell 16%, 18% to China, and 30% to the US:

https://www.ft.com/content/78f4dc9d-33bc-4bd6-a61d-f0d69d7e997d

Henryq.

Sam Russell wrote: »

Unfortunately Thatcher's grasp of economics was at the level of her lifetime hero, her father, the shopkeeper - "You buy for one shilling and 10 pence and sell for two shillings and six pence, then you stay in business".

Everything has to make a profit, and that applies to Government funding. People are poor because they do not work. Unions are bad for the economy because they work against capital. etc. etc. Pure right wing thinking of the furthest pure right you can get.

She destroyed manufacturing, the North of England, the coal mining industry and the steel industry. The car industry probably killed itself, but it was not actually helped by her interference.

UK tends to sleepwalk into a lot of big mistakes

Tories usually at the helm

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

Unfortunately Thatcher's grasp of economics was at the level of her lifetime hero, her father, the shopkeeper - "You buy for one shilling and 10 pence and sell for two shillings and six pence, then you stay in business".

Everything has to make a profit, and that applies to Government funding. People are poor because they do not work. Unions are bad for the economy because they work against capital. etc. etc. Pure right wing thinking of the furthest pure right you can get.

She destroyed manufacturing, the North of England, the coal mining industry and the steel industry. The car industry probably killed itself, but it was not actually helped by her interference.

And not even proper economics.

They closed down coal mines that were making a loss, but it was less than the cost of paying the dole for the miners later on.

Bit like Brexit economics.

Sam Russell

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

And not even proper economics.

They closed down coal mines that were making a loss, but it was less than the cost of paying the dole for the miners later on.

Bit like Brexit economics.

That is what I think as 'shopkeeper economics' where internal and external costs are not considered in total, only simple costs.

As you say, Brexit economics where £350 million a week savings (which was not true) but where do they mention the 50,000 customs officers that cost £2.5 billion to £5 billion a year. Plus lots of other costs, and lots of lost jobs.

Rrrrrr2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting FT article on UK exports (as usual, just Google "UK exports lag behind rivals amid Brexit and Covid uncertainty" ) - perhaps the most surprising stat is that British goods exports up to October, at £250 billion, compare rather unfavourably with Ireland's €134 billion in terms of the relative size of the economies. Exports to the EU fell 16%, 18% to China, and 30% to the US:

https://www.ft.com/content/78f4dc9d-33bc-4bd6-a61d-f0d69d7e997d

They are woeful figures. I thought there’d be an increase with brexit stockpiling? Looks like customers are already going elsewhere- hard to win that business back once you lose it

Anyone know what the likely additional costs to buying goods from the UK into Ireland will increase by. I'm seeing in the motors forum that cars may incur a 10% import tax and possibly 21 VAT on top of that. That would have a massive impact on the motor trade here and for consumers. The UK are the big supplier of 2nd hand cars into Ireland as they are one of the few countries that driver on the same side of the road as us.

Very little talk about it in the media and it may only be a couple of weeks away.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

Anyone know what the likely additional costs to buying goods from the UK into Ireland will increase by. I'm seeing in the motors forum that cars may incur a 10% import tax and possibly 21 VAT on top of that. That would have a massive impact on the motor trade here and for consumers. The UK are the big supplier of 2nd hand cars into Ireland as they are one of the few countries that driver on the same side of the road as us.

Very little talk about it in the media and it may only be a couple of weeks away.

I don't know about cars but we have this info on post and parcels coming into Ireland :

A flat VAT rate of 21% applies to all goods over €22. But the rate of duty applied differs depending on what is being purchased, so a complex list of rates will be applied by Revenue. The duty rates could change and are dependent on what is contained in any possible Free Trade Agreement. The charges will either be applied by the retailer selling the goods, or by authorities here on arrival. If goods are valued at more than €150, consumers will face not only VAT but also customs duty (where applicable).

In other words, no fixed charge per parcel, it will vary a lot.

Lots of talk about farming and beef etc but motors seems to have gone under the radar a bit. The motor industry is in for one hell of a shake up and consumers will feel it with the additional costs to UK car imports.

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Lots of talk about farming and beef etc but motors seems to have gone under the radar a bit. The motor industry is in for one hell of a shake up and consumers will feel it with the additional costs to UK car imports.

Boom for OEM franchises you would assume.

Irish Praetorian

As part of my ongoing practice of listening to ones opponents and trying to understand them more, I came across this tweet from what is apparently a Brexiteer businessman.

https://twitter.com/WhatNowDoc/status/1339314431847768065

Now, I'm not sure if I am completely misreading this, or if I am not perhaps 'getting' something, but maybe one of you can correct me - because to me this looks like a man making a business inquiry, getting a polite response and then behaving like a pig-ignorant lout before throwing a tantrum and proclaiming his plans to grow his own trees (presumably along with blackjack and hookers). Yet apparently most of the replies are fawning applause - again, someone feel free to correct me if I'm misinterpreting this.

farmerval

Truly bizarre reply to a polite logical response.

I read it twice in case I read it wrong the first time. The Dutch guy's response was simple and polite. He was out of stock. Really strange.

theguzman

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

As part of my ongoing practice of listening to ones opponents and trying to understand them more, I came across this tweet from what is apparently a Brexiteer businessman.

https://twitter.com/WhatNowDoc/status/1339314431847768065

Now, I'm not sure if I am completely misreading this, or if I am not perhaps 'getting' something, but maybe one of you can correct me - because to me this looks like a man making a business inquiry, getting a polite response and then behaving like a pig-ignorant lout before throwing a tantrum and proclaiming his plans to grow his own trees (presumably along with blackjack and hookers). Yet apparently most of the replies are fawning applause - again, someone feel free to correct me if I'm misinterpreting this.

It was incredibly unprofessional, an air of Del Boy and Rodney to it, I think it is probably fake. However there is plenty like it in more professional terms expressing similar sentiments.

Strazdas

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

As part of my ongoing practice of listening to ones opponents and trying to understand them more, I came across this tweet from what is apparently a Brexiteer businessman.

https://twitter.com/WhatNowDoc/status/1339314431847768065

Now, I'm not sure if I am completely misreading this, or if I am not perhaps 'getting' something, but maybe one of you can correct me - because to me this looks like a man making a business inquiry, getting a polite response and then behaving like a pig-ignorant lout before throwing a tantrum and proclaiming his plans to grow his own trees (presumably along with blackjack and hookers). Yet apparently most of the replies are fawning applause - again, someone feel free to correct me if I'm misinterpreting this.

The Dutch gentleman was polite and friendly. Our Brexit loving loon with the doubled barrelled name was obnoxious and rude in response.

ErnieG

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

As part of my ongoing practice of listening to ones opponents and trying to understand them more, I came across this tweet from what is apparently a Brexiteer businessman. .

The Dutch guy was rational and frank (I like frankness and the Dutch are good at it)

The English guy is intoxicated by nationalism and is acting irrationally. Looks like he has a lot of fans. They don’t know what’s about to hit them in January when the non-tariff barriers are applied to UK-EU trade.

BonnieSituation

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

As part of my ongoing practice of listening to ones opponents and trying to understand them more, I came across this tweet from what is apparently a Brexiteer businessman.

https://twitter.com/WhatNowDoc/status/1339314431847768065

Now, I'm not sure if I am completely misreading this, or if I am not perhaps 'getting' something, but maybe one of you can correct me - because to me this looks like a man making a business inquiry, getting a polite response and then behaving like a pig-ignorant lout before throwing a tantrum and proclaiming his plans to grow his own trees (presumably along with blackjack and hookers). Yet apparently most of the replies are fawning applause - again, someone feel free to correct me if I'm misinterpreting this.

And then you see some of the responses below:

https://twitter.com/Wild4OxfordWA/status/1339349749946855428

It just beggars belief.

Actually, does it at this stage? I think at this stage I would be more surprised if I DIDN'T see a response like that below.

If we parse that response, I'm assuming Spanish, Portuguese, German, Italian various Balkan wines and even Greek wine are out of the equation for her?

And I'm assuming only Japanese and American cars will be all she rolls around in from now on? I'm assuming she drives German now, so perhaps she should make a stand now and use Shanks' Mare instead to show Ze Germans?

BonnieSituation

yagan wrote: »

Yes it can.

You don't believe until you see it but a quick tour around the former industrial centres will leave you in littles doubt of the recent decades of decay they've experienced.

It's very shocking to stand in places like Rochdale, Oldham (which as a town had the most millionaires per head a century ago) Burnley, Blackburn etc.. and literally see them crumbling.

It is true that the former textile centres started their contraction a century ago but the real rot really off in the Thatcher years.

I had the (mis)fortune of being in Bradford on the hunt for a car last year, and by gum, I have been in my share of grim English cities and towns, but it really took the biscuit, the absolute stench of misery was overpowering.

So these figures are not that surprising.

World Class Child poverty I think is how the Tories would phrase it?

BonnieSituation

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Soviet Union spent 70 years lying to 150 or so million people about how "socialism is just around the corner" blaming "those capitalists and imperialists"

They managed to keep control for so long via simple brutality, total control of press, propaganda and restricting external travel

UK and its population on the other hand will see year after year how their life is worse off, even the warped press would find it hard to deny issues such as hunger. Sooner or later the British people will ask themselves why are we the poorman of europe? Why do the Scots want so badly to leave our "paradise"?

The Tories can potentially pull the wool over the electorates eyes for another decade, but sooner or later their house of cards will collapse under its own contradictions, i doubt it take 70 years, maybe 7 years at most.

As soon as the SNP rout the Unionist parties come May, is when the wheels will start coming off.

The clamour in 2014 was dismissed as a Scottish/regional hoopla because English arrogance felt it was never in doubt.

The only thing keeping the Tories going is the complicit media. See their creation Ruth Davidson as an example of how the narrative is shaped.

Once the north of England get a proper taste of the misery it will start to turn drastically for Boris.

Another thing to pay attention to is the Senedd elections in Wales as well in May. The franchise was extended to 16 and 17yo, so, assuming they get out and vote, it could skew the results towards Plaid.

The pandemic, of all things, has really shown up the benefits of devolution, especially in the case of Wales who haven't embraced it with as much fervour as their northern brethren.

These coupled with the fallout of Brexit finally biting, should start the ticking timebomb that will be a Tory leadership challenge.

CelticRambler

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Now, I'm not sure if I am completely misreading this, or if I am not perhaps 'getting' something, but maybe one of you can correct me - because to me this looks like a man making a business inquiry, getting a polite response and then behaving like a pig-ignorant lout before throwing a tantrum and proclaiming his plans to grow his own trees ...

These days, one has to constantly question whether or not these kinds of posts - and their replies - are real or just another team of bots feeding off each other's algorithms ... but I suspect that at least some of them (this one included) are genuinely representative of the Brexiter mentality. Not just in the lid-flipping tantrum, but also in the failure to understand that the outside world can see complications with Brexit that are not worth trying to overcome.

I recently ordered plants from a Dutch supplier for delivery to France. On their website and in the confirmatory e-mail, they stated very clearly that orders would be dispatched at the start of the following week, because they didn't want stock sitting in a van or a sorting centre all weekend. When I read the tweeted supplier's response, it made perfect sense that they'd wait until "this Brexit thing" is sorted out, because why would they put their reputation on the line sending living products on a journey of a non-specified duration and without knowing what additional costs and/or procedures they'd incur?

Obviously there are very few on that thread who can see through the Brexit-blue mist triggered by the mere suggestion that Britain is really not that important to someone else.

BonnieSituation

CelticRambler wrote: »

Obviously there are very few on that thread who can see through the Brexit-blue mist triggered by the mere suggestion that Britain is really not that important to someone else.

I thought the blue-mist was generated by us Europhiles?:D

AutoTuning

Sadly, the above isn’t strange or unusual.

I had to ask a supplier in the U.K. whether they could guarantee continuity of a particular product in light of Brexit and got a big political rant in response.

I found an alternative supplier in Ireland. It’s just not worth the hassle of even engaging with that kind of stuff. The rest of us have to be able to deal in facts and reality.

It just comes down to practicalities and for the vast majority “the Brexit thing” is just a serious annoyance and very little else.

Ireland has an insider view of British politics, but that email to the Dutch supplier must have seemed a bit off the wall. Brexit isn’t even featuring on the news on the continent any more than say the machinations of EU-Swiss relations do here. I watch a fair bit of German & French TV and it’s really not that big a story.

It’s big here because we’re far more impacted and because of 24/7 exposure to U.K. media and speaking English.

BonnieSituation

AutoTuning wrote: »

Sadly, the above isn’t strange or unusual.

I had to ask a supplier in the U.K. whether they could guarantee continuity of a particular product in light of Brexit and got a big political rant in response.

I found an alternative supplier in Ireland. It’s just not worth the hassle of even engaging with that kind of stuff. The rest of us have to be able to deal in facts and reality.

It just comes down to practicalities and for the vast majority “the Brexit thing” is just a serious annoyance and very little else.

Ireland has an insider view of British politics, but that email to the Dutch supplier must have seemed a bit off the wall. Brexit isn’t even featuring on the news on the continent any more than say the machinations of EU-Swiss relations do here. I watch a fair bit of German & French TV and it’s really not that big a story.

It’s big here because we’re far more impacted and because of 24/7 exposure to U.K. media and speaking English.

It's off the wall because the responses don't marry at all from any reasonable reading of the situation.