Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Infini

Makes me wonder though once all these cuts, "Brexit benefits", and other things start to truly bite hard will the majority of the unionist community still support the union or would the begin to reconsider the long term costs and benefits if offered the oppertunity of reunification with the republic and the increasing advantages both politically and economically that would come with it?

I mean the UK goverment does not give a damn bout NI, the Tories are a party of Oligarchs and Kleptocrats only interested in their own self enrichment all while the rest of England is doped up on Fraud Unicorns sponsored by Farage Garages and utterly blind to the lies and grifting happening in front of them. The Scots are likely to Nope the hell out of there in the next few years so makes me wonder what will happen to NI and if the DUP will get their comeuppance for wrecking the North for their vainglorious bullshìtting.

The final cost of Brexit is gonna be a staggering one and it wont be a simple quick cut down it will be a slow bleedout over the next decade and it wil be all down to the Tories and their corrupt and incompetent behaviour.

Imreoir2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The argument had been made before Brexit that as EU structural projects were funded by net contributors, the UK would match existing schemes pound-for-pound, but Invest NI has today discovered that its 2020 budget of £100m (Brussels-funded) will be reduced in 2021 to £11m (Westminster-funded):

https://twitter.com/mandy_mcauley/status/1339464456917684225

This is one of the big benefits of Brexit for the Tories, taking back control of their money. They can take a soverign decision to redirect funding from useless things like economic development in the regions (regions that dont even elect Tory MPs ) and redirect it to useful things like building gunboats and giving contracts to ferry companies with no ferries. The kind of thing deserving people like Tory party doners can benefit from.

eire4

Infini wrote: »

Makes me wonder though once all these cuts, "Brexit benefits", and other things start to truly bite hard will the majority of the unionist community still support the union or would the begin to reconsider the long term costs and benefits if offered the oppertunity of reunification with the republic and the increasing advantages both politically and economically that would come with it?

I mean the UK goverment does not give a damn bout NI, the Tories are a party of Oligarchs and Kleptocrats only interested in their own self enrichment all while the rest of England is doped up on Fraud Unicorns sponsored by Farage Garages and utterly blind to the lies and grifting happening in front of them. The Scots are likely to Nope the hell out of there in the next few years so makes me wonder what will happen to NI and if the DUP will get their comeuppance for wrecking the North for their vainglorious bullshìtting.

The final cost of Brexit is gonna be a staggering one and it wont be a simple quick cut down it will be a slow bleedout over the next decade and it wil be all down to the Tories and their corrupt and incompetent behaviour.

I think that last paragraph will prove to be very much on the money.

roosterman71

On things like farming subsidies - where do NI stand on this come Jan 1st? They will be under the EU wing somewhat but will the EU still pay the subs, or is that up to London now? Are many farmers in NI going to be very deep in poop that isn't produced on their own farm?

Same question for grants and investment the EU makes in areas? Are those in NI entitled to that or not?

ancapailldorcha

roosterman71 wrote: »

On things like farming subsidies - where do NI stand on this come Jan 1st? They will be under the EU wing somewhat but will the EU still pay the subs, or is that up to London now? Are many farmers in NI going to be very deep in poop that isn't produced on their own farm?

Same question for grants and investment the EU makes in areas? Are those in NI entitled to that or not?

I think they're going to become ineligible for the CAP subsidies so it's anyone's guess. It's ultimately upto London.

Akrasia

roosterman71 wrote: »

On things like farming subsidies - where do NI stand on this come Jan 1st? They will be under the EU wing somewhat but will the EU still pay the subs, or is that up to London now? Are many farmers in NI going to be very deep in poop that isn't produced on their own farm?

Same question for grants and investment the EU makes in areas? Are those in NI entitled to that or not?

Not a hope in hell that NI will get any EU grants or CAP payments while they’re outside the EU

Lumen

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think they're going to become ineligible for the CAP subsidies so it's anyone's guess. It's ultimately upto London.

This was written some time ago but presumably still applies.

https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk/brexit-cap-funding-payments-questions-answers

Daera NI wrote:

We have a commitment from the UK Government to provide the same cash total in funds for farm support until the end of the current UK Parliament expected in 2022. This includes all funding provided for farm support under Pillar 2 of the current CAP. This commitment applies to the whole of the UK, but we do not know what will happen after that.

breezy1985

roosterman71 wrote: »

On things like farming subsidies - where do NI stand on this come Jan 1st? They will be under the EU wing somewhat but will the EU still pay the subs, or is that up to London now? Are many farmers in NI going to be very deep in poop that isn't produced on their own farm?

Same question for grants and investment the EU makes in areas? Are those in NI entitled to that or not?

All the regions are gonna find out pretty quick who their real friends were.

Sadly half of em will still blame some Polish lad working down the cafe rather than admit their mistake

Capt'n Midnight

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

They're not even really loyal to themselves. If it were that, they'd have pushed for remain. They literally had their cake and ate it. All they had to do was to tolerate the GFA. They got billions in handouts, subsidies and support from London, Dublin and Brussels. They could oppose the meanest little bit of progress with no consequence. Look at the RHI scandal. I'm not too familiar with it but Foster remains in post so I doubt she even got a slap on the wrist.

RHI cash for ash. You could claim back more than you spent once you picked the right size boiler(s).
wind turbine grants they pay for themselves after four years, lots of community grants to Orange order lodges. We could be here all day.

If they'd have sided with remain, we'd still be leaving the EU but they could have used their position to guarantee farmers and other people in NI, portraying themselves as the defenders of the people of NI. They could have forged a new narrative for the Union and tried to rally people to it going forward. All they had to do was to leverage May into protecting NI with subsidies and securing EU market access (with compromises if need be) for NI. NI would have been viable going forward and its people would have been spared the consequences of Brexit and Unionism would have a reason to appeal as a result.

Instead, they sold themselves out for meaningless concessions and a grubby little backhander.

The DUP had to be seem to be more Unionist than the UUP who were not interested in a Brexit at any cost. The TUV of course had "nothing to lose but our chains".

The DUP channelled the money for that Metro wraparound ad that ran in all the other regions of the UK. Because for historical reasons donations in NI weren't as public. That one act alone means they own the consequences of Brexit for NI.

They lost two seats last time out, three if you include North Down so there's that.

Seth Brundle

Lumen wrote: »

This was written some time ago but presumably still applies.

https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk/brexit-cap-funding-payments-questions-answers

Daera NI wrote:

We have a commitment from the UK Government to provide the same cash total in funds for farm support until the end of the current UK Parliament expected in 2022. This includes all funding provided for farm support under Pillar 2 of the current CAP. This commitment applies to the whole of the UK, but we do not know what will happen after that.

I think a lot of organisations were given similar commitments.
Cornwall were promised by Johnson the same level of funding that they has been receiving from the EU when they chose to leave. That promise hasn't been fulfilled...
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/westminster-news/cornwall-brexit-eu-funding-shortfall-6747898

I dont believe that England will choose to match EU CAP rates to NI farmers that are effectively out of the UK when it comes to trade. What's the benefit to England, especially when it's likely that funds will become even tighter?

Strazdas

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I think a lot of organisations were given similar commitments.
Cornwall were promised by Johnson the same level of funding that they has been receiving from the EU when they chose to leave. That promise hasn't been fulfilled...
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/westminster-news/cornwall-brexit-eu-funding-shortfall-6747898

I dont believe that England will choose to match EU CAP rates to NI farmers that are effectively out of the UK when it comes to trade. What's the benefit to England, especially when it's likely that funds will become even tighter?

It's grimly entertaining watching the Brexit chickens coming home to roost. Nearly everything they promised was a barefaced lie, especially talk of a 'Brexit dividend'. There's going to be hundreds or even thousands of such examples in the next year.

Infini

Lumen wrote: »

This was written some time ago but presumably still applies.

https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk/brexit-cap-funding-payments-questions-answers

A commitment isnt a guarantee though and considering they've already begun butchering budgets all across the place I wouldn't be suprised if they turn around and say "too bad lads, thats all your getting".

Strazdas wrote: »

It's grimly entertaining watching the Brexit chickens coming home to roost. Nearly everything they promised was a barefaced lie, especially talk of a 'Brexit dividend'. There's going to be hundreds or even thousands of such examples in the next year.

I will have sympathy for those that didnt vote for this and are being screwed over by their own backstabbing political leaders but for those complaining after not only voting for this but continuing to support this idiocy in the face of sheer facts and ignoring it because it didnt fit their ideology.... well I'll just enjoy the schadenfreude and give em the "you won, get over it" response at least until they own their mistake and stop putting ideology before reality.

RobAMerc

sometimes you have to admire the ability of these charlatans to spin stuff - Unicef are coming in to feed kids in the UK and Moggy is on the attack - "how dare they" !

kowloon

Anyone starting to think January will come and go and they'll have extended the talks?

breezy1985

RobAMerc wrote: »

sometimes you have to admire the ability of these charlatans to spin stuff - Unicef are coming in to feed kids in the UK and Moggy is on the attack - "how dare they" !

Just as they were getting their freedom back from the EU now UNICEF are rolling the tanks in

MrMusician18

roosterman71 wrote: »

On things like farming subsidies - where do NI stand on this come Jan 1st? They will be under the EU wing somewhat but will the EU still pay the subs, or is that up to London now? Are many farmers in NI going to be very deep in poop that isn't produced on their own farm?

Same question for grants and investment the EU makes in areas? Are those in NI entitled to that or not?

The proposal is for London to provide equivalent grants until 2022. The proposal for after that its to effectively withdraw them over a 7 year period to my knowledge. There's a discussion on it over on the farming forum.

Tippex

RobAMerc wrote: »

sometimes you have to admire the ability of these charlatans to spin stuff - Unicef are coming in to feed kids in the UK and Moggy is on the attack - "how dare they" !

he really is a reprehensible individual.

CelticRambler

I saw a snippet on the Guardian "live" news earlier indicating that Gove is being lukewarm about signing the UK up for the Erasmus and Horizon programmes, apparently (according to an un-named EU source) because to do so would require the UK to commit to either/both for a seven year period, in line with the EU budget cycle.

I haven't gone looking for more meat to put on that bone, but if the EU source's version is true, that doesn't bode well for the long-term-ness of any other part of whatever's being negotiated. Seven years? That's not even twice the length of time they've wasted trying to not leave with no deal (while saying that they'll walk away with no deal if they have to ... :rolleyes: )

listermint

kowloon wrote: »

Anyone starting to think January will come and go and they'll have extended the talks?

Hard brexit January. Pound serious devalue. Backers and donors make transactions. Sign deal pound increases.

Profit.

lawred2

listermint wrote: »

Hard brexit January. Pound serious devalue. Backers and donors make transactions. Sign deal pound increases.

Profit.

There's no way that the son of a disaster capitalist would be operating this way at all at all

breezy1985

lawred2 wrote: »

There's no way that the son of a disaster capitalist would be operating this way at all at all

Doesnt Moggs dad say some real Scrooge type filth about people deserving to die if they cant afford to feed themselves?

fash

CelticRambler wrote: »

I saw a snippet on the Guardian "live" news earlier indicating that Gove is being lukewarm about signing the UK up for the Erasmus and Horizon programmes, apparently (according to an un-named EU source) because to do so would require the UK to commit to either/both for a seven year period, in line with the EU budget cycle.

I haven't gone looking for more meat to put on that bone, but if the EU source's version is true, that doesn't bode well for the long-term-ness of any other part of whatever's being negotiated. Seven years? That's not even twice the length of time they've wasted trying to not leave with no deal (while saying that they'll walk away with no deal if they have to ... :rolleyes: )

That's correct: everyone else ( EU member states as well as non member states) sign up to the 7 years cycle. The UK however wants a special "pay as you go" option.

CelticRambler

fash wrote: »

That's correct: everyone else ( EU member states as well as non member states) sign up to the 7 years cycle. The UK however wants a special "pay as you go" option.

On the grounds that nothing says you value broadening young minds like the threat of pulling their funding from one year to the next ... :rolleyes:

Of course that course of action would be a great preparation for living under a Tory regime, where your farm subsidies, your tourism development budget, your infrastructure funding, etc, is just as likely to have a zero or two lopped off the promise.

kowloon

breezy1985 wrote: »

Doesnt Moggs dad say some real Scrooge type filth about people deserving to die if they cant afford to feed themselves?

Going to need a source for that.

timetogo1

This channel has some good videos on what's happening with Brexit. This video goes into some of the UKs new trade deals with other countries.

https://youtu.be/_LoIQfysYSc

Executive summary: a while lot of copy and pasting existing deals.

listermint

timetogo1 wrote: »

This channel has some good videos on what's happening with Brexit. This video goes into some of the UKs new trade deals with other countries.

https://youtu.be/_LoIQfysYSc

Executive summary: a while lot of copy and pasting existing deals.

That's a really poor analysis though. The deals are not copy and pastes they are time limited until the countries can sit and think about it. And they've dropped their trousers various times like e.g the Japan deal.

Executive summary inaccurate. Makes it sound like nothing has changed.

timetogo1

listermint wrote: »

That's a really poor analysis though. The deals are not copy and pastes they are time limited until the countries can sit and think about it. And they've dropped their trousers various times like e.g the Japan deal.

Executive summary inaccurate. Makes it sound like nothing has changed.

So did you watch the video? That's said in the video. Not a lot has changed for now. They are a lot of copy & pastes and yes they're time limited. Sorry I didn't go into more detail.

The point I was trying to allude to was that the the UK was meant to have all these great trade deals on day one. Here we are on something like day 1400 with deals that just extend what they already had with the EU. Well worth the billions spent so far.
But then Brexiters normally deflect off to one of the other random benefits of Brexit, sovereignty, immigration control, blue passports etc. etc. (I don't think any of those are Brexit benefits before I'm corrected).

dogbert27

timetogo1 wrote: »

So did you watch the video? That's said in the video. Not a lot has changed for now. They are a lot of copy & pastes and yes they're time limited. Sorry I didn't go into more detail for you.

The point I was trying to allude to was that the the UK was meant to have all these great trade deals on day one. Here we are on something like day 1400 with deals that just extend what they already had with the EU. Well worth the billions spent so far.
But then Brexiters normally deflect off to one of the other random benefits of Brexit, sovereignty, immigration control, blue passports etc. etc. (I don't think any of those are Brexit benefits before I'm corrected).

While we see it for what it is this is how it's been spun with "Busy Lizzie" the darling of 58 trade deals :rolleyes:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9065441/SIMON-WALTERS-Busy-Lizzie-turned-party-joke-darling-58-trade-deals.html

lawred2

dogbert27 wrote: »

While we see it for what it is this is how it's been spun with "Busy Lizzie" the darling of 58 trade deals :rolleyes:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9065441/SIMON-WALTERS-Busy-Lizzie-turned-party-joke-darling-58-trade-deals.html

"In recent months, however, she has been busy making them eat their words by signing trade deals with 58 non-EU countries."

The language is so ugly and confrontational

Hurrache

Massive lorry queues throughout the UK at the likes of Hollyhead and the Eurotunnel the last few days. With the lack of clarity around any deal there's a massive movement of goods before any potential changes kick in over the new year.